Brad Swanson

I hear the anti-teacher rhetoric all too often and I never understand it. Sure, there are some bad teachers just like there are bad engineers and pilots and doctors and whatnot, but most of the teachers I know and work with are very hard working and dedicated to their students. Actually, my dad is one of those anti-teacher people and his opinion is that teachers are "lazy" because they get so many days off. It's strange because I would go and work for him during every Summer, Winter, Spring break and random Holiday day-off, so that I could earn a little extra money. I guess he didn't make a connection there. Most of the teachers I know are working a second job and I rarely hear any of them complain about their teaching job. Anyway, to keep this on the original topic, yes, Alex Meyer is tall.

Over the last week or so, I've been investigating the Twins' 40-man roster to try to determine who will contribute to the next good Twins team. I've reached the end of this short journey and will cover the infielders today. However, I did complete this activity in four parts, so if you missed the first three, you can find them here: [B][URL="http://smartpitcher.blogspot.com/2013/12/minnesota-twins-40-man-roster-analysis.html"]Starting Pitchers[/URL][/B] [B][URL="http://smartpitcher.blogspot.com/2013/12/minnesota-twins-40-man-roster-analysis_19.html"]Relief Pitchers[/URL][/B] [B][URL="http://smartpitcher.blogspot.com/2013/12/minnesota-twins-40-man-roster-analysis_26.html"]Catchers/Outfielders[/URL][/B] Now that we have hyperlinks out of the way, we can look at the Twins' infielders, ordered from least likely to contribute to most likely to contribute in 2015 (that magical season I am forecasting). [B][B][URL="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=vargas001ken&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com"]Kennys Vargas[/URL][/B][/B] Infield is not the strength of the Twins' 40-man roster. Vargas is known for his strength. Paradox? Nope, just something I thought sounded cool. Vargas was added to the roster to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. Vargas spent his 2013 season with High-A Fort Myers and he showed off his massive power, hitting 19 home runs and slugging .468. Unless Vargas absolutely crushes AA in 2014, I don't see how he plays for the Twins in 2015. Perhaps 2016? [B][B][URL="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=polanc001jor&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com"]Jorge Polanco[/URL][/B][/B] Compared to Vargas, Polanco is ever so slightly more likely to be playing for the Twins in 2015, mostly because he could man a middle infield position and possibly fill a utility role. I don't think that scenario plays out though. Polanco could be the Twins' second baseman of the future, but I'd say that future is more than two years away and his career won't be starting in 2015 at the age of 21 or 22. [B][B][URL="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/colabch01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com"]Chris Colabello[/URL][/B][/B] Well, the Twins tried to sell him to Korea, so that's probably not a great sign for his long-term future with the organization. Colabello was a really nice story in 2013, going from Independent Ball to AAA legend to the Majors. He struggled mightily against MLB pitching, striking out in nearly a third of his plate appearances and posting a shoddy .194/.287/.344 line. Colabello has massive right-handed power, which should play well at Target Field. However, he doesn't have pull power and the home runs don't really fly out of the park to center and right unless they're hit by [B][URL="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/thomeji01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com"]Jim Thome[/URL][/B]. Plus, [B][URL="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mauerjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com"]Joe Mauer[/URL][/B] now occupies the only position Colabello can effectively play. Unless Colabello adjusts to his field and to MLB pitching, he won't be much more than a bench bat and I'm not sure it will be the Twins' bench by 2015. [B][B][URL="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=santan001dan&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com"]Danny Santana[/URL][/B][/B] Santana could be on the active roster in 2015. He'll be 24 and will have had AA and probably AAA experience. He might even get a 2014 September call-up if all goes well. Santana had a quietly effective offensive season with New Britain in 2013. He hit .297/.333/.386 with 22 doubles, 10 triples and 30 stolen bases. He also made 32 errors at short, and I can't remember a time when the Twins have consistently used a shortstop who was that error-prone. That said, Santana reportedly has the skills for short and could provide better offense than [B][URL="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/floripe01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com"]Pedro Florimon[/URL][/B] or [B][URL="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/escobed01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com"]Eduardo Escobar[/URL][/B] by 2015. I think he'll be on the team, but I'm not sure he'll be starting then. [B]Pedro Florimon[/B] The Twins have given Florimon 596 plate appearances over the past two seasons, about 595 more than I figured he would receive. That said, Florimon has been a good defender at short and provided some speed when he actually hit the ball. He wasn't a complete disaster, posting a 70 OPS+. By WAR, he was one of the Twins' three best players in the first half. He was pretty brutal in the second half and he might not be better than other options on the roster (see below). He's 27 now and approaching arbitration. I imagine he'll be with the team in 2015, but I would wager he'll be a utility player by then. [B][B][URL="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/plouftr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com"]Trevor Plouffe[/URL][/B][/B] The Twins seem to value Plouffe's versatility. He's a third baseman, but he can play a corner outfield spot as well. I like versatility too, but I also like performance. If you take Plouffe's crazy June/July of 2012 out of the equation, he's a roughly 90 OPS+ third baseman with a nice (but somewhat inaccurate) arm and little range. He also cannot hit right-handed pitching, hitting .227/.284/.382 in his career. His best offensive tool (power) doesn't even apply against the much more common right sided pitching. With his shaky defense, I don't think the Twins can properly exploit his potential defensive versatility. In fact, I'd prefer to see more of another young player at third in 2014... [B]Eduardo Escobar[/B] Escobar might be a better option than Florimon and/or a decent platoon-mate for Plouffe. I look at his numbers next to Florimon's numbers and I see very similar players. Low contact, a few walks, good speed, but not on-base enough to utilize it, good glove and the ability to play a couple positions. Escobar is two years younger and might be a better defender. Even if he can't unseat Florimon for the shortstop job, he should provide enough value as a guy who can play all infield position to keep his job while cheap. If Plouffe doesn't improve offensively, I'd give Escobar some starts at third as well. At least Escobar will play great defense. Escobar will be cheap in 2015, even though he'll be arbitration-eligible. I hope he gets a longer look; I like him. [B][B][URL="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/doziebr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com"]Brian Dozier[/URL][/B][/B] Dozier is probably one of three sure bets for 2015, with [B][URL="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/arciaos01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com"]Oswaldo Arcia[/URL][/B] and the new first baseman. In 2013, Dozier reclaimed his lost plate discipline, but also traded a few strikeouts for more power. He hit more fly balls and finished 2013 with 18 home runs. His defense was much better at second than at short and he finished the season with 2.8 fWAR, good for 8th among all qualifying MLB second basemen. However, Dozier was very up and down in 2013, and this chart proves it: [TABLE="class: grid, width: 500"] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD]OPS+[/TD] [TD]K%[/TD] [TD]BB%[/TD] [TD]BB/K[/TD] [TD]BABIP[/TD] [TD]LD%[/TD] [TD]GB%[/TD] [TD]FB%[/TD] [TD]HR[/TD] [TD]HR/FB[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]April[/TD] [TD]71[/TD] [TD]17.7[/TD] [TD]7.6[/TD] [TD]0.43[/TD] [TD]0.280[/TD] [TD]22.8[/TD] [TD]36.8[/TD] [TD]40.4[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]May[/TD] [TD]42[/TD] [TD]23.6[/TD] [TD]3.4[/TD] [TD]0.14[/TD] [TD]0.276[/TD] [TD]14.5[/TD] [TD]51.6[/TD] [TD]33.9[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]9.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]June[/TD] [TD]152[/TD] [TD]15.4[/TD] [TD]16.5[/TD] [TD]1.07[/TD] [TD]0.364[/TD] [TD]20.0[/TD] [TD]36.7[/TD] [TD]43.3[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]19.2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]July[/TD] [TD]101[/TD] [TD]17.1[/TD] [TD]5.7[/TD] [TD]0.33[/TD] [TD]0.252[/TD] [TD]25.0[/TD] [TD]32.9[/TD] [TD]42.1[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]6.3[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]August[/TD] [TD]139[/TD] [TD]19.9[/TD] [TD]7.8[/TD] [TD]0.39[/TD] [TD]0.347[/TD] [TD]24.8[/TD] [TD]30.7[/TD] [TD]44.6[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]13.3[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sept/Oct[/TD] [TD]93[/TD] [TD]21.2[/TD] [TD]8.5[/TD] [TD]0.40[/TD] [TD]0.255[/TD] [TD]15.9[/TD] [TD]42.7[/TD] [TD]41.5[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]8.8[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Dozier's best month appears to have been June, when he started his breakout. He did some things really well in June, including striking out at the lowest rate he posted in any month and nearly doubling his season walk rate. He also had a really high .364 BABIP and an equally high 19.2 home run to fly ball ratio. I actually like what I see in August a little more. He had less luck with fly balls going over the fence and a slightly lower BABIP. He also walked at a rate more in line with his season average, which seems a lot more sustainable than a giant one-month spike. The plate discipline he showed in every month other than May should keep his performance at the level we grew accustomed to from June on. His home run total might have been a bit of a fluke though. I'd guess he'd settle more in the 10-15 range going forward, which is still very valuable at second base. Even in his best months, he never hit above .260. However, if he can walk about 8-10% of the time and provide a little pop, he could settle in around .250/.320/.430, which would be great and pretty similar to his overall numbers in the second half of 2013. He won't be arbitration eligible until 2016, so he'll definitely be around in 2015. Monthly samples are pretty small, so this is likely all pretty futile. I'm just going to predict 45 home runs and be done with it. [B]Joe Mauer[/B] I could be all sensational, say that Mauer is cooked and that he won't provide any value as a first baseman, but I wouldn't believe it. Mauer is an excellent hitter and that won't change at a different position. Mauer may not be a traditional number 3 hitter, but batting order is largely overrated anyway. Mauer makes outs at one of the lowest rates in the Majors today. Avoiding outs helps the team win and there's absolutely no reason to think that Mauer will lose that skill anytime soon. He's a lock. There we have it, an entire tour of the Twins' 40-man roster. The Twins have some really great pieces already on the roster. They will add a few next off-season and add a few from their own farm system. Also, some will come out of nowhere, surprising everyone with their contributions. I fully expect the 2015 Twins to be good. How good depends a lot on the 40 men who occupy the Twins' roster. Thanks for reading, everyone! [I]Originally posted at [URL="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jotdog"][B]Kevin Slowey was Framed![/B][/URL][/I] View full article

Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! Over the last week or so, I've been investigating the Twins' 40-man roster to try to determine who will contribute to the next good Twins team. I've reached the end of this short journey and will cover the infielders today. However, I did complete this activity in four parts, so if you missed the first three, you can find them here: Starting Pitchers Relief Pitchers Catchers/Outfielders Now that we have hyperlinks out of the way, we can look at the Twins' infielders, ordered from least likely to contribute to most likely to contribute in 2015 (that magical season I am forecasting). Kennys Vargas Infield is not the strength of the Twins' 40-man roster. Vargas is known for his strength. Paradox? Nope, just something I thought sounded cool. Vargas was added to the roster to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. Vargas spent his 2013 season with High-A Fort Myers and he showed off his massive power, hitting 19 home runs and slugging .468. Unless Vargas absolutely crushes AA in 2014, I don't see how he plays for the Twins in 2015. Perhaps 2016? Jorge Polanco Compared to Vargas, Polanco is ever so slightly more likely to be playing for the Twins in 2015, mostly because he could man a middle infield position and possibly fill a utility role. I don't think that scenario plays out though. Polanco could be the Twins' second baseman of the future, but I'd say that future is more than two years away and his career won't be starting in 2015 at the age of 21 or 22. Chris Colabello Well, the Twins tried to sell him to Korea, so that's probably not a great sign for his long-term future with the organization. Colabello was a really nice story in 2013, going from Independent Ball to AAA legend to the Majors. He struggled mightily against MLB pitching, striking out in nearly a third of his plate appearances and posting a shoddy .194/.287/.344 line. Colabello has massive right-handed power, which should play well at Target Field. However, he doesn't have pull power and the home runs don't really fly out of the park to center and right unless they're hit by Jim Thome. Plus, Joe Mauer now occupies the only position Colabello can effectively play. Unless Colabello adjusts to his field and to MLB pitching, he won't be much more than a bench bat and I'm not sure it will be the Twins' bench by 2015. Danny Santana Santana could be on the active roster in 2015. He'll be 24 and will have had AA and probably AAA experience. He might even get a 2014 September call-up if all goes well. Santana had a quietly effective offensive season with New Britain in 2013. He hit .297/.333/.386 with 22 doubles, 10 triples and 30 stolen bases. He also made 32 errors at short, and I can't remember a time when the Twins have consistently used a shortstop who was that error-prone. That said, Santana reportedly has the skills for short and could provide better offense than Pedro Florimon or Eduardo Escobar by 2015. I think he'll be on the team, but I'm not sure he'll be starting just yet. Pedro Florimon The Twins have given Florimon 596 plate appearances over the past two seasons, about 595 more than I figured he would receive. That said, Florimon has been a good defender at short and provided some speed when he actually hit the ball. He wasn't a complete disaster, posting a 70 OPS+. By WAR, he was one of the Twins' three best players in the first half. He was pretty brutal in the second half and he might not be better than other options on the roster (see below). He's 27 now and approaching arbitration. I imagine he'll be with the team in 2015, but I would wager that he'll be a utility player by then. Trevor Plouffe The Twins seem to value Plouffe's versatility. He's a third baseman, but he can play a corner outfield spot as well. I like versatility too, but I also like performance. If you take Plouffe's crazy June/July of 2012 out of the equation, he's a roughly 90 OPS+ third baseman with a nice (but somewhat inaccurate) arm and little range. He also cannot hit right-handed pitching, hitting .227/.284/.382 in his career. His best offensive tool (power) doesn't even apply against the much more common arm-side pitching. With his shaky defense, I don't think the Twins can properly exploit his potential defensive versatility. In fact, I'd prefer to see more of another young player at third in 2014... Eduardo Escobar Escobar might be that better option than Florimon and/or a decent platoon-mate for Plouffe. I look at his numbers next to Florimon's numbers and I see very similar players. Low contact, a few walks, good speed, but not on-base enough to utilize it, good glove and the ability to play a couple positions. Escobar is two years younger and might be a better defender. Even if he can't unseat Florimon for the shortstop job, he should provide enough value as a guy who can play all infield position to keep his job while cheap. If Plouffe doesn't improve offensively, I'd give Escobar some starts at third as well. At least Escobar will play great defense. Escobar will be cheap in 2015, even though he'll be arbitration-eligible. I hope he gets a longer look; I like him. Brian Dozier Dozier is probably one of three sure bets for 2015, with Oswaldo Arcia and the new first baseman. In 2013, Dozier reclaimed his lost plate discipline, but also traded a few strikeouts for more power. He hit more fly balls and finished 2013 with 18 home runs. His defense was much better at second and he finished the season with 2.8 fWAR, good for 8th among all qualifying MLB second basemen. However, Dozier was very up and down in 2013, and this chart proves it: [TABLE=class: grid, width: 500] [/TD][TD]OPS+ K% BB% BB/K BABIP LD% GB% FB% HR HR/FB April 71 17.7 7.6 0.43 0.280 22.8 36.8 40.4 0 0 May 42 23.6 3.4 0.14 0.276 14.5 51.6 33.9 2 9.5 June 152 15.4 16.5 1.07 0.364 20.0 36.7 43.3 5 19.2 July 101 17.1 5.7 0.33 0.252 25.0 32.9 42.1 2 6.3 August 139 19.9 7.8 0.39 0.347 24.8 30.7 44.6 6 13.3 Sept/Oct 93 21.2 8.5 0.40 0.255 15.9 42.7 41.5 3 8.8 [/TABLE] Dozier's best month appears to be June, when he started his breakout. He did some things really well in June, including striking out at the lowest rate he posted in any month and nearly doubling his season walk rate. He also had a really high .364 BABIP and an equally high 19.2 home run to fly ball ratio. I actually like what I see in August a little more. He had less luck with fly balls going over the fence and a slightly lower BABIP. He also walked at a rate more in line with his season average, which seems a lot more sustainable than a giant one-month spike. The plate discipline he showed in every month other than May should keep his performance at the level we grew accustomed to from June on. His home run total might have been a bit of a fluke though. I'd guess he'd settle more in the 10-15 range going forward, which is still very valuable at second base. Even in his best months, he never hit above .260. However, if he can walk about 8-10% of the time and provide a little pop, he could settle in around .250/.320/.430, which would be great and pretty similar to his overall numbers in the second half of 2013. He won't be arbitration eligible until 2016, so he'll definitely be around in 2015. Monthly samples are pretty small, so this is all pretty futile. I'm just going to predict 45 home runs and be done with it. Joe Mauer I could be all sensational, say that Mauer is cooked and that he won't provide any value as a first baseman, but I wouldn't believe it. Mauer is an excellent hitter and that won't change at a different position. Mauer may not be a traditional number 3 hitter, but batting order is largely overrated anyway. Mauer makes outs at one of the lowest rates in the Majors today. Avoiding outs helps the team win and there's absolutely no reason to think that Mauer will lose that skill anytime soon. He's a lock. There we have it, an entire tour of the Twins' 40-man roster. The Twins have some really great pieces already on the roster. They will add a few next off-season and add a few from their own farm system. Also, some will come out of nowhere, surprising everyone with their contributions. I fully expect the 2015 Twins to be good. How good depends a lot on the 40 men who occupy the Twins' roster. Thanks for reading, everyone!

He's not the worst pitcher I've ever watched, but I hate watching him more than any other pitcher I've ever watched.

The more the time passes, the less I hate this deal. I do think that it means one of three things: 1. The Twins expect to move Kevin Correia before the 2014 season ends. 2. The Twins are not sold on Kyle Gibson for any part of 2014. Obviously this is true for Alex Meyer as well. 3. The Twins prefer starters who can give the team innings. Pelfrey was an innings guy before he got hurt. They'd rather have a guy who they know will give them innings than a guy who might have more upside (Deduno, Worley, even Gibson and Meyer). This could mean that the Twins may have already given up on at least two of the Deduno, Gibson, Worley bunch. Obviously, the Twins have four guys written into the rotation and no one from last year's team really deserves the fifth spot. Although, Pelfrey didn't really earn one of the spots either, but you can at least point toward his injury as a major reason why. If they move Correia, then they can give time to the young guys. If that isn't the plan, then they don't seem to trust the young guys.

I just posted a report on how other teams are reacting to the Pelfrey signing: http://smartpitcher.blogspot.com/2013/12/fans-take-out-full-page-ad-to-thank.html

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php/2533-December-Mailbag!

Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! A mailbag on a Tuesday? Now I've heard of everything! Remember that song "December" by Collective Soul? This mailbag is dedicated to that song. As is typical, these are actual questions that will be actually answered by me. This month, I even have some questions written by others! Fame! FAME! The Twins have been surprisingly active this Fall, adding two starting pitchers and cutting one Australian. What do you think the Twins' next move will be? Also, what do you hope the Twins' next move will be? Thanks, I am an avid scanner of your work. Brad S., St. Paul, MN What an intelligent question-set! I think the Twins will make their next move this week and I think it will be something relatively minor. I could see the Twins adding a veteran backup catcher like John Buck or Kurt Suzuki, but no one overly sexy. If not a catcher, I'll bet that the next move will be for one more starting pitcher. The Twins have watched injuries and suckiness decimate their rotation for three years now. I'd guess that adding one more arm to the rotation will be a priority. My hope is that the next move the Twins make is really smart. As opposed to a dumb move, of course. I'd like to see the Twins target a starting pitching reclamation project to use in the rotation until Alex Meyer is ready, hopefully in July or August. I think there are three interesting names: Shaun Marcum, Johan Santana and Scott Baker. Each has talent and each has major injury issues. When Colby Lewis signed a minor league deal, I was slightly surprised. I'd say each of these three are in the Colby Lewis range of talent/injury concern. I'd like to see the Twins land one on either an MiLB deal or a deal in the one year, $1-3 million range. Seems like a decent investment. Real Questions! - Thanks to Paul and Eric Pleiss of the always entertaining Talk to Contact podcast and Puckett's Pond and Knuckleballs, respectively. Check out their work on the internet. Do you think the Twins will sign a 1B/DH type guy, or even a 3B or middle infielder off the of free agent market? Essentially what I want to know is, will Nick Punto or Mark Reynolds be a Twin in 2014? -P The greatest flaw in a fake mailbag is that while you wait for questions to answer, things actually happen. Thus, Nick Punto signed a very fair contract to hustle for the As in 2014 and probably 2015 because they will fall in love with him like everyone else does. Reynolds is still a free agent and I don't hate the idea of bringing him in on a small deal. Reynolds mostly sucks, but he does have massive power. He has 20 or more home runs in each of the last six seasons. Sure his career batting average is .233 and he strikes out more than I fail to come up with analogies, but his awesome right-handed power could play well at Target Field. That said, I think that Jason Bartlett will be the only Twins' infield signing this off-season. Joe Mauer moving to first closed off that position for the next half-decade, Brian Dozier is entrenched at second and the left side can be cobbled together with Trevor Plouffe, Pedro Florimon, Eduardo Escobar and possibly Bartlett. Twins HOF voting is open on Facebook (Facebook voting is, obviously, the best way to make any decision), who are you voting for besides Chuck Knoblauch? -Eric Don't forget about Twitter! I remember when everyone thought that Thomas Dewey beat Harry Truman in the 1948 presidential election, but everyone forgot about the Twitter results. I actually wrote an entire post about my Twins Hall of Fame ballot. If you missed it, you can find it here. If you don't like reading, I would vote for Knoblauch, Shane Mack, Tom Brunansky, Brian Harper and Corey Koskie. I would not vote for Dazzle. I have standards. What does the former Minnesota Twin Matt Fox say? -Eric Ok, I did not get this reference. I listen to "The Starters," a truly glorious NBA podcast. One of their promos has Rick Fox (former NBA player and "actor") saying, "The dog says woof, the cat says meow, but what does the Fox say?" He laughs like a total knob after he says it too. Real creepy laugh, like he's going to try to steal your significant other. Anyway, the reference comes from a viral video seen by literally millions of people and not by me. I prefer , with just over 17,000 views, mostly from me. I have every intention of re-casting this video with current Twins players. Just be patient. That said, I am guessing Matt Fox would say "thanks for giving me one start, Twins." Or, he might say, "why couldn't I have been born just three years later when the Twins really sucked and could have used a random AAA starter for a few months." It just depends on how negative he is. The Twins missed out on Jarrod Saltinecracker and I am bummed out. I am not ready for the Josmil Pinto era and I think the Twins need Salty or the veteran presence/punch-ability of A.J. Pierzynski. What do you think? Brad S., St. Paul, MN Not to go all meta and disagree with mysel...I mean a reader, but I am glad the Twins didn't land Saltalamacchia. I outlined five very reasonable reasons why in a post here. More self-promotion! Basically, I don't think Saltalamacchia is that great and much of his success in the past has a flukiness to it that scares me away from a three-year deal when Pinto could end up being a better offensive player as early as 2014. I'm sure he'll enjoy his two months with the Marlins. Ok hotshot, you always think you're so smart. I have report cards that say otherwise. How many games do the Twins win in 2014? Don't be gutless like you usually are and give a range. Pick a number. Put your name on it. Brad S's Mom, St. Paul, MN First off, most of my teachers were out to get me. Second, I'm going to be brave and say 74 wins. The additions of Nolasco and Hughes might be somewhat overrated for 2014. My opinion is that each pitcher is pretty good and could be better than that if things break correctly. I am more excited about their signings as a symbol of a potential shift in thinking within the Front Office. The Twins either see that free agency is an important component in building a team or they feel the team is close to contending and need to fill remaining holes quickly. Either way, I prefer that to treading water. Back to 2014. The Twins won 66 games in 2013, but their Pythagorean record gave them 63 wins. Those figures are pretty close, so I don't put too much stock in the difference. Replacing Mike Pelfrey and Vance Worley/Scott Diamond/Pedro Hernandez with Hughes and Nolasco has to add a few wins to the total. It just has to. I mean, look at those names. Gross. In addition, the Twins played all of September without their best player (Mr. Charisma himself, Joe Mauer!). The Twins were 8-20 in September. Mauer last played on August 19. The Twins were 54-69 on that day, good for a 71-win pace. I don't really think Mauer was the reason why the team fell off that pace, but he was likely part of the reason. In addition, a bad team is likely to use a lot of odd pieces in September, which could explain why guys like Doug Bernier, Eric Fryer, Cole De Vries, Pedro Hernandez, Shairon Martis and Liam Hendriks were playing in September. The team I watched in 2013 was more competitive than the team I watched in 2012. Both teams won 66 games. I believe the Twins were better in 2013 and could have won more games if the needed/wanted to. I think that the team will be trying a bit harder to win in September of 2014 and I think the roster will be more talented as well. 74 wins seems reasonable. Both the real and fake mailbags have been emptied and I feel very satisfied. If you want to contribute a question to a future mailbag, feel free to send me an email at kevinsloweywasframed@gmail.com. Or, you can find me on Twitter - @bridman77. Or, you can come to my house. It's a little messy right now. Have fun, everyone!

Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! Man o' Man, the Hall of Fame season is all around us! I see columns and posts everywhere! I even contributed a post to my own blog yesterday, where I went through my personal fake Hall of Fame ballot. If you missed it, check it out! Today, I want to discuss an even more important and personally significant Hall of Fame: The Minnesota Twins Hall of Fame. Voting is going on as we speak, using the democratic hallmarks of Facebook and Twitter. The ballot has been live for a week or so, and I wanted to weigh in on my official picks for the Twins Hall of Fame. I have identified seven Twins I might vote for (eventually, I'm very busy of course). You aren't going to see a lot of advanced stats here. The Twins Hall of Fame is all about wonderment. It's about memories and dingers. It's about the intangibles. It's really about me not wanting to do any research for this. And really, isn't that what life is all about? I'm only voting for players I've watched play. I'll leave Larry Hisle's campaign to my Dad, who has no clue how to use Twitter. Godspeed, Larry and Dad. Tom Brunansky (OF, 1982-88) - Yep Bruno's debut with the Twins was just shortly before I was born. He made it through six and a sliver seasons with the Twins before being jettisoned for a vastly inferior player with feathered hair. Now, he's back with the organization as a coach, he had an epic mustache and he was a really important part of a World Series team. He has the ninth most home runs in Twins history. I think Michael Cuddyer is a lock for the Twins HOF in the future, and Bruno was better. I think he's a worthy candidate and he gets my vote. Dan Gladden (OF, 1987-91) - Nah This is hard for me. He won two World Series with the Twins, scored the winning run in 1991 and I actually enjoy Dazzle as a broadcaster. The problem is that he wasn't really a very good player. He was the team's leadoff hitter, but didn't really have the skills to hit in that position in the order. He only had a .318 OBP as a Twin, lower than guys like Delmon Young, Scott Leius and Nick Punto. Gladden was actually pretty bad in both World Series seasons too. I'm not sure how exclusive the Twins want their Hall of Fame to be, but Dan Gladden doesn't really fit with the guys currently included. Brian Harper (C, 1988-93) - Yes Only four players in Twins history have a higher batting average than Harper (minimum 2400 plate appearances): Rod Carew, Joe Mauer, Kirby Puckett and Shane Mack (who we'll get to shortly). Rare air. Harper provided quality offense and adequate defense at one of the most important positions on the diamond. He was consistent and durable in his six seasons with the Twins. He was a very important part of a World Series winning team. I consider him underrated, although I'm sure stats guys would think he's overrated. I'm voting for him regardless. Chuck Knoblauch (2B, 1991-97) - Oh goodness, yes. This is a slam dunk. Knoblauch took over as the best player on the team from Kirby Puckett, and actually did so in 1994 while Puckett was still active. Knoblauch is right behind Harper for sixth on that batting average list from above. He has the most stolen bases in Twins history, the sixth most runs, the 10th most hits and the 11th most doubles. He also has the seventh highest rWAR (for hitters). Simply put, he's one of the best players in Twins history. We (as fans) have a complicated history with Knobby, but it's time to bury the hatchet. I think he will get a ridiculous ovation when he comes out for his enshrinement. Corey Koskie (3B, 1998-2004) - Yep Koskie probably is the most underrated player in Twins history. It's not really that fans didn't appreciate his contributions, it's that he contributed even more than we thought he did at the time. Only Mauer, Carew, Knoblauch, Harmon Killebrew, Matt Lawton (who probably should be on this ballot), Steve Braun and Mack have a higher career OBP with the Twins (min 2400 PA). He also has the tenth highest slugging percentage in Twins history (min 2400 PA too). He was a great defender early in his career and remained good until he left for Toronto. Leaving for Canada is a ding, but his career with the Twins was great. Shane Mack (OF, 1990-94) - Oh yeah Mack doesn't have the longevity of others on this list, but he was a fantastic player and produced better than everyone but Knoblauch when he was with the team. Using that 2400 PA sample I already have in Baseball Reference's season index, Mack is 4th in batting average, 4th in slugging, and 7th in OBP. If it weren't for the stupid players' strike, he may have stayed longer and he'd be that high in the counting stat categories as well. He was really good in Japan. Even with just five years of service, he still has the 15th highest rWAR in Twins' history (hitters only). Plus, I said this on Twitter last week, he's been AWOL from team functions for years. This might bring him back into Twins Territory. It's a human interest story AND he's deserving. Let's do this, Twins fans! Kevin Tapani (P, 1989-95) - Eh, maybe...no A lot of the methods I used to justify players above, could be used for Tapani. He's 9th all-time in Twins career wins, 9th in innings pitched and 12th in strikeouts. However, the Twins have some outstanding pitchers in their history and then a whole lot of unimpressive hurlers. Emphasis on hurl. Only ten pitchers have thrown 1000 or more innings for the Twins and Tapani is second-worst. Tapani wasn't a bad pitcher, but he was more of the best of a mediocre bunch than a good pitcher among other good pitchers. He was outstanding in 1991, and average or worse in every other season. I can't vote for him. There you have it. It's very hard for me to make an informed decision about these players. I watched them growing up and I loved each of them. All I want to do is find reasons why they should be added to this important institution. I'll enjoy watching their ceremony and I might even try to go to Mack's in person. I'm not very objective, but I don't care. This Hall of Fame is for the fans, and I was a big fan of all of these players. I'll probably even vote for Gladden and Tapani, just because I can and it's fun. Thanks for reading. Who are you voting for?

I'd use it to remodel my model fund...hey-oooooooo! But seriously, I'd blow it all on scratch-offs.

That's fair, but I still hope they aim for 90 in 2015.

Exactly and this is the perfect time to make that transition. Two (or three if Meyer develops) impact talents are nearly ready, the team has the 5th overall pick this coming June and even if they finish with 75-80 wins in 2014, they'll have at least one more top 15 pick coming. Now is the time to start moving up the ladder. If they can hit that win total in 2014, add two more pieces, integrate Sano and Buxton full-time, there's no reason they can't aim for 90 wins in 2015.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php/2512-I-like-Phil-Hughes

Yeah, I agree with that. It will be interesting to see Garza's contract, but I could see it being two extra years and about $60-70 million more.

Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! I haven't posted these here lately because I am comically lazy. Luckily for the both of you who care, I have an archive set up right here. Enjoy! State of the Team 1999 Record: 63-97, 5th in the AL Central 1999 Overview: At least fans were only subjected to 160 games. 2000 Outlook: Welcome to the Jay Canizaro era! Players Lost - Free Agency As has been the case for the last few off-seasons, the Twins didn't lose anyone of substantive value because they barely employed anyone of substantive value. After the 1999 season, the following "notable" names left for greener pastures: Brent Gates, Tony Fiore, Gary Rath, Shane Bowers and Kevin Ohme. Sweet mix. A few reasonably notable players did leave after the '99 season including a reliable reliever, a local catcher and a former ROY. The Twins drafted Mike Trombley way back in 1989. At his peak, he was a decent, but not great reliever who could throw a lot of innings and get some strikeouts. He peaked in 1996 and at well over a million bucks per season, he was a luxury not needed on a very crappy team. He left for Baltimore and never looked back...until he returned in 2002 for four innings. Marty Cordova was also drafted in 1989 and won the AL Rookie of the Year award in 1995. In his five seasons with the Twins, he hit .277/.348/.451, providing great value as a former fifth-round pick. He never had a season as fine as his rookie season, and at times he was pretty brutal. All in all, not bad for this era. Cordova signed a free agent deal with the Red Sox and didn't make their team out of Spring Training. Yikes. He did latch on with the Blue Jays the next day and played four more seasons in the Majors. Terry Steinbach was drafted in 1983 and signed with the Twins before the 1997 season. He was coming off of a monster '96 season and he didn't really match his '96 numbers in his three combined seasons with the Twins. That said, it was fun to have a local boy on the team. I guess. He retired after the '99 season. Players Gained - Free Agency Are you ready?!? JASON MAXWELL! BOBBY AYALA! BUTCH HUSKEY! TODD RIZZO! ROBIN JENNINGS! RICK GREENE! MARCUS JENSEN! Let's get physical! The Twins went ape this off-season, right? Maxwell spent his 2000 season as a utility man, playing games at second, short and third. He also hit .243/.298/.324, meaning he had no utility at the plate. Not to fear, he was signed to just a one-year deal and there's simply no way the Twins would bring him back. Oh wait, they did. They spent over $400,000 on Maxwell over two seasons, money that would have easily been better spent on eWorld stock. Butch Huskey is likely best remembered for his heroic quest to tear down the Berlin Wall. He even went so far as to show the danger of walls when he crashed skeleton-first into the left-field wall at the Metrodome. Sadly, no one had the heart to tell poor Butch that the Berlin Wall had been torn down over a decade earlier. Oh well, at least he hit .223/.306/.353 in 64 games before being traded as PART of a deal that netted the Twins "The Immortal Todd Sears." We'll get to Ayala in a minute. TRADEZ!/Rule Five Madnezzz! The Twins had the very first pick in the Rule 5 draft. This was their trophy for finishing dead last in all of Major League Baseball in 1999. With that first pick, the Twins selected Jared Camp, a walk-heavy, 24-year-old reliever who pretty much sucked. Now, the next part can be looked at in two ways. One, the Twins realized their mistake and quickly worked out a deal with the Florida Marlins, who had selected a 20-year-old dude named Johan Santana. The Twins would get Santana and some cash and the Marlins would get Camp, the pitcher they truly wanted. Or, you can look at it very cynically and deduce that the Twins really wanted Santana, but they really, really wanted more cash. Therefore, they slow-played the Marlins for extra chedda. However it went down and however you want to look at it, the trade for Santana was probably the best deal the Twins have ever made. Santana blossomed into the best pitcher in recent Twins' history, won 2 Cy Youngs, earned 2 more and basically won the hearts of all of Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa, Manitoba, and parts of Wisconsin that should really just cheer for the Brewers. Kidding...or am I...I am...but wait, what if...no I love Wisconsin...I just hate those shirts that say "Bucky" more than anything...Not because of the University, because I think those shirts are stupid... Biggest Splash Bobby Ayala didn't play a single game for the Twins and therefore, he was the best signing of the off-season. By simply not playing and not providing negative value, he was the best player the Twins acquired in the off-season. Way to go, Bobby! Sorry, can't count the Santana move, there's simply no way the Twins had any clue it would work out as it did. No credit! NONE! Biggest Miss A crap-way tie for everything. What a bummer of a Fall/Winter/Early Spring. If you have to pick one, it's Huskey because I think the Twins reasonably thought he could be useful, coming off of a decent '99 season. He was useful in testing the structural integrity of the Metrodome. My Own Personal Heartbreak I always hated Tony Fiore and he wasn't around to complain about any longer. Does that count? Arbitrary Overall Assessment: F Consecutive Fs! Not only did the Twins appear to have no interest in actually fielding a competitive team, they didn't seem to have any interest in fielding a merely bad team. Look at the moves that were made this off-season! That's a stack of garbage placed between two slices of rye bread (editor's note: Brad hates rye bread). In 2012, the Twins were ripped when Kevin Correia was their best free agent pickup. Kevin Correia blows this garbage sandwich out of the water. I lived these moments and I can't remember how it felt to be a fan at this time. Then again, that might just say it all. Next Monday, we'll look at the 2000 off-season. See you then!

I'll fully admit I was one who did not approve of this move. I thought the second year was a mistake and I thought Correia would perform as he had for the previous few seasons. Clearly, Ryan and the Front Office saw more and they were right. I'm happy they were right. I'll stand by my analysis, but I was definitely wrong last year and I hope I will be in 2014 too.

He's only been an above-average offensive player once in the past ten years, going by wRC+. He'll be 37 next season. Pinto may need another year at AAA, but not two. If he gets a multi-year deal, he has the best agent in the World. I'd prefer Navarro. I truly wonder how many people would be hoping for AJ to be here next year if he hadn't played here before.

Worley has had more MLB success than about 10 guys on the 40-man roster. I think you have to at least wait until Spring Training to see what he has left in the tank.

Worley was a disaster last year, but he's still just 26. His BABIP was .401 last season, which isn't just unlucky it's borderline impossible. It's interesting to me that the same people penciling Deduno into the rotation for the next few years also want to cut Worley. Go look at what Deduno was up to at age 25. Worley was really good in 2011, has had at least as much MLB success as Deduno and is five years younger. Why cut either one?

You can all make fun of me if you'd like, but I'm excited to see what Rick Anderson can do with Hughes. He throws a flat fastball and needs to work low in the zone to avoid home runs. Plus, he could really benefit from a third pitch - changeup perhaps? Maybe Anderson and Hughes can save their careers together!

Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! Where were you when the Twins became a completely different franchise? In the last 72 hours or so, the Twins have doled out $73 million in long-term contracts, surpassing their previous off-season record by nearly $300 billion dollars (if you believe some fans). On Wednesday, the Twins signed Ricky Nolasco to a four-year deal, and tonight, they added former Yankee Phil Hughes to an increasingly (and suddenly) talented starting rotation. Hughes will earn $8 million for the next three seasons, earning a longer contract than many experts had predicted. The Twins have to bank on a change of scenery transforming Hughes into a completely different pitcher. Over the course of his career, Hughes has been an extreme fly ball pitcher in a park that is probably smaller than the park in your neighborhood. As such, he has been very home run-prone, averaging 1.29 home runs per nine innings in his career. The move to Target Field could help suppress those home runs. Park Factor stats compare the rate of stats at home vs. the rate of stats on the road. For home runs in 2013, Yankee Stadium had a 9th-best HR Park Factor of 1.128, greatly favoring hitters. The HR Park Factor at Target Field in 2013 was 0.802, 27th in the league. The great thing about this normalized stat is that it takes out the types of players each team has, so the fact that the Twins don't hit a lot of home runs as a team is factored in. This seems to indicate that Hughes' biggest bug-a-boo could be neutralized to some extent. Although, extreme fly ball pitchers will always be somewhat more home run-prone, by definition. Hughes might be classified incorrectly as a strikeout pitcher. His career rate of 19.7% is slightly above average, but also just slightly higher than Scott Baker's 19.1% rate. That said, Hughes does throw hard. He consistently sits 92-93 with his fastball and can touch 95. He has a low-80s slider that he has developed over the years and uses as an out pitch. He had a 31.3% strikeout rate with that pitch in 2013. His fastball was crushed for a .917 OPS last season, but the home ballpark change and crazy high fastball BABIP of .337 would point toward improvement with that pitch in coming years. His split stats are encouraging as well. He doesn't really have a noticeable platoon split, as his career OPS against lefties is .760 and his career OPS against righties is .743. His walk rate and strikeout rate are better against righties, although his rates against lefties are not bad either. He actually allows home runs at a higher rate against right-handed batters, which you might not have guessed. Moving to Target Field won't help that final rate much, but the rest of the stats are encouraging. His home/road splits really catch the eye. His career ERA at home is 4.96 and his career ERA on the road is 4.10. At home versus lefties, he surrenders a .831 OPS, basically equivalent to facing Hunter Pence in every at-bat. In contrast, lefties had an OPS of just .681 on the road, or an entire lineup of Brandon Crawfords. Against righties, Hughes gave up an OPS of .781 at home and an OPS of .700 on the road. All of these splits were even worse last year, and he still had an xFIP of 4.35. Target Field won't fix everything, but New Yankee Stadium was not doing Hughes any favors. Hughes will always give up his share of home runs. All fly ball pitchers do. However, with his good strikeout rate, better-than-good walk rate, and good raw stuff, it is conceivable that Hughes could greatly improve his performance with the Twins. Add in the fact that he'll be just 30 when this very reasonable contract ends, and you get a shark move from a GM who has never been described as any sort of vicious predator animal. In my free agent starting pitcher preview, I wrote the following: Who will the Twins actually sign? I have no clue. I hope they are shockingly active. I'd love to see Garza, Johnson and Arroyo on this team next year. How wild would that be? Terry Ryan shows up at Spring Training with an earring. He starts calling everyone "playa." Constant Finger Guns. It would be amazing. Make it happen, TR. I had the wrong names, but the level of activity matches. I hope the Twins beat writers can get used to being called "playa." Blow the smoke off those finger guns, TR. In fact, why not reload those babies and sign a catcher next? Why stop there? Bronson Arroyo is still available. Scott Kazmir isn't going to get a larger deal than Hughes and the Twins still have money to spend. If that happens, you can expect to see Terry Ryan in a leather jacket all summer long, no matter how hot it gets. Ray-Bans too. Personally, I'm basking in the glow of a Twins team that is actually committed to getting better. I'm getting excited to an uncontrollable point. You can analyze the talent of Nolasco and Hughes until sundown. In fact, both guys might completely flame out next year. What you can't say any longer is that the Twins won't spend money to win baseball games. They just sunk $73 million into the rotation and greatly improved the team in the process. I'm starting to think this team could win 75-80 games next year. I need to sit down. Wait, I am sitting down. I need to lie down. It's all just too exciting.

This is the best site. I visit multiple times per day. I don't interact as much as I'd like to, but I enjoy the articles, the forums and the conversation. Everyone involved has built a really impressive community. Thanks to everyone who makes this a great place to be.