Brad Swanson

I've been writing so much about free agency lately, it's sick! Last week, I addressed the position players the Twins should target. This week, I've been counting down my top 30 starting pitching targets for the Twins. If you missed any of this mini-dynasty, I'll provide you some links below. Since I wrote these, things have changed, but most of my ideas aren't super player-specific, more of an overall philosophy. Translation: please click the links below so I can feel cool. Now that all the shameless self-promotion is clear, we can get back to the starting pitcher countdown. Here are the top ten starting pitching targets for the Twins, in my opinion (which should be obvious because I am writing this): [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] 10. Scott Feldman Nothing sexy about Scott Feldman. This is not an indictment on his looks either, he just doesn't excite me as a pitcher. His walk rates are generally good, his strikeout rates are in the Twins Zone and he's reasonably young. His ground ball rate was great in 2013 and with the Twins' good infield defense, he could be a decent fit. If Feldman is the second or third best starting pitcher the Twins sign, the off-season could be categorized as a success. If he's the crown jewel of the 2013 off-season? Yawn. Links to more thoughts on free agency Infielders Outfielders and Catchers Relief Pitchers and Starting Pitchers 30-21 Starting Pitchers 20-11 9. Bronson Arroyo HOT RUMOR!! If news reports are to be believed, Bronson Arroyo is somewhere in the Twin Cities area, lurking, waiting to sign a contract with our beloved Twins. Be on the lookout for a man in his late 30s with long hair and likely carrying an acoustic guitar and silly-walking like in Monty Python. Do not approach Arroyo, as he could recede back to Cincinnati if spooked. I've already started to talk myself into Arroyo on the Twins, so that pretty much means he won't sign here. I was concerned about his age and lack of strikeouts, but overall, he looks like a pretty valuable pitcher. He's thrown over 2000 innings in the past 10 seasons and he's transformed from a control-enthusiast to a control-specialist. He'll be 37 next season and all pitchers are healthy until they aren't healthy any longer. If he does sign here, I'll be interested in the contract he receives. Anything more than two years or more than $10 million per season will elevate my levels. Stay below those thresholds and I'll be chill. According to Baseball Reference, his nickname is Saturn Nuts. I'm sensing a love-hate relationship starting here. If he even sings once, I want his contract voided. Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! 8. Ervin Santana Not a huge fan. He throws hard but that doesn't translate to strikeouts, so what's the point? His career strikeout rate is lower than Scott Baker's. It's only slightly higher than Kevin Slowey's. Santana is also prone to wildness and home runs. He's averaged over 200 innings the past four seasons, so he certainly has value. He's a good pitcher, I'll say that. He's reportedly looking for 5 years and over $100 million. That's crazy. Fans can harp on the Twins for being cheap all they want, but signing Santana to a contract that averages over $20 million per year is irresponsible. I'd rather my team be cheap than crazy. 7. Scott Kazmir Kazmir will be only 30 next year. That's insane. I remember being jealous of my friend Brad because he had Kazmir on his fantasy team. That was in 2005. I've been jealous for 9 years now. After completely falling apart in 2010-2011 and then missing all of 2012, Kazmir rebounded really nicely in 2013. He still throws basically as hard as he ever has and he still has great stuff. His 4.04 ERA in 2013 isn't special, but his 3.36 xFIP shows that he may be a huge upside signing. His 2013 could end up looking like a huge fluke, but I'm not sure that it will. He'd be a lot higher up my list if I could just get one more year to look at him. The Twins won't have that luxury, so if they want him, they need to be bold. I like him, I'd go 3-4 years if needed. 6. Ubaldo Jimenez Is Jimenez consistent? Here are his last 5 xFIPs - 3.59, 3.60, 3.71, 4.98, 3.62. I can explain the 4.98! Strikeout rate dipped, walk rate spiked, strand rate dipped, ground ball rate plummeted, home run/fly ball rate spiked. There, it all makes sense now. Why did all of those rates change so dramatically in 2012? I'm not sure. His 2013 looks a lot like his 2009, 2010 and 2011. If his 2012 had matched, he'd be looking at a massive payday. Instead, he'll have to settle for a tremendous payday. It's a subtle difference, I agree. I'm not worried about him as a pitcher, but he's far too rich for the thrifty Twins, so he rates a bit lower than others. 5. A.J. Burnett Burnett would probably be number 1 on my list if there was any chance that he would actually sign here. His combination of high ground ball rate and good strikeout rate is so enticing. He has also really gotten his control under control (ugh) as he has aged. Of course, none of this matters as Burnett is reportedly unwilling to pitch anywhere that isn't within walking distance of his home in Maryland (exaggeration). Now there are reports that he may retire. Regardless of what he chooses to do, he won't pitch for the Twins in 2014. What if the Twins just went insane and offered him 2 years, $36 million? I bet he'd consider that. If things really fall apart and all their targets sign elsewhere, I'm not so sure that wouldn't be a smart offer to make. They have the money, right? 4. Dan Haren We would feel a lot differently about Dan Haren if we called him "Dangerous" Danny Haren like I want us to. That would give him an edge. Instead, he's a fairly boring option. He doesn't throw hard, he's had some recent ups and downs and he isn't really a big name anymore. He is consistent though. His xFIP has been 4 or below since 2005. His ground ball rate has been diminishing and his strikeout rate is dipping (as a trend, it was up a bit last season), but his walk rate is strikingly consistent, and low. His 2012 and 2013 seasons were disappointing, likely as he learned to deal with that diminishing ground ball rate. He seemed to figure it out in the second half of 2013, posting an 3.40 xFIP as his strand rate and BABIPs stabilized. He averaged well over 200 innings from 2005-2011 and he's still just 33. He never really relied on power stuff, so his age is less of a factor. He signed a one year, $13 million dollar deal for last season and a similar deal would be very reasonable for the Twins. 3. Ricky Nolasco You know how some pitchers outperform their peripheral stats? Nolasco consistently underperforms relative to his peripherals. His walk rates have always been excellent and his strikeout rates were consistently good until they weren't any more. His career 3.52 K/BB ratio is just fantastic! His career 4.37 ERA is not. His career xFIP of 3.75 is good! His dipping K rate is bad. He's a yoyo. He's averaged nearly 200 innings in his last three seasons and he is coming off his best season ever in 2013. He'll be 31 next year and should be looking to cash in. For a reasonable contract, I'd be interested. I worry his contract offers will exceed "reasonable." Oh, he's a slider enthusiast, and I'm not so sure we like that 'round these parts. 2. Josh Johnson OH HOT DAMN A LOCAL BOY! Johnson was atrocious last season, his first with Toronto. Perhaps he didn't get used to drinking maple syrup every day? If you look closely, there are easy ways to explain away his poor performance. First, his strand rate was extremely low - 63.3% compared to his career rate of 74.2%. Second, his BABIP was .356, an astronomical number even if you don't believe in BABIP. Third, his home run to fly ball rate was 18.5%, over twice has high as his 8.2% career value. Add all those misfortunes together and you get a 6.20 ERA but a 3.58 xFIP. He'll be just 30 next season and won an ERA title only four short seasons ago. "BUY LOW," shouted the man. The Twins should offer one year and $whateverittakes million to get Johnson. If it takes two years, go for it. Three years? Yeah, maybe. 18 years? Don't be stupid. 1. Matt Garza I've written this before, but Garza's debut is one of my fondest memories of recent Twins past. He was just such a delightful spaz that evening. I enjoyed his competitive personality and while he may legitimately have a screw loose, he is a solid pitcher. His 2013 was rocky, but he was coming off of a couple legit injuries. In 2011 and 2012, he looked like a budding ace. He had great strikeout rates, improved control and a suddenly solid ground ball rate. His ground ball rate plummeted last season, but his line drive rate jumped far beyond his career norm. I imagine those rates will even out. With a relatively stable strikeout rate, and ever-improving walk rate and no real noticeable loss of velocity, Garza would be an excellent target for his age 30-34 seasons. A five-year deal seems more than reasonable and I'd pay him big money. Would the Twins do it? Would they bring back someone they once jettisoned for Delmon Young? I have no idea. I Googled "Matt Garza Twins hate" and found nothing. It seems the waters are clear. Garza isn't an "ace" but he's a very good pitcher and would anchor this rotation. Projections seem to fall in the 4 years, $60 million range for Garza. The Twins might need to exceed that. Personally, I'd go 5 and 80 and hope he wants to come back. That's a lot of money. Deep breath. Special Note: Masahiro Tanaka. I learned long ago to stick to what I know and I know nothing of Japanese baseball. If he's as good as advertised, he'd be number 3 on this list. Since I can't speak of him with any authority or come up with any "jokes" about him, I'll just leave him here. So there we are. Tons of free agents rated and reviewed for your reading pleasure. Who will the Twins actually sign? I have no clue. I hope they are shockingly active. I'd love to see Garza, Johnson and Arroyo on this team next year. How wild would that be? Terry Ryan shows up at Spring Training with an earring. He starts calling everyone "playa." Constant Finger Guns. It would be amazing. Make it happen, TR.

Welcome to another Minnesota Twins mailbag. There has been so much juicy Twins news in the past month, I just couldn't resist asking questions to qualified Twins analysts. Unfortunately, with the iOS7 upgrade, none of my emails, texts, tweets or vines actually send, so I'll just have to answer my own questions this time. This should be a nice change of pace. Would you move Joe Mauer to first base to alleviate any potential concussion issues going forward? Brad S., St. Paul, MN [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Thanks for reading! First, moving Mauer to first will not remove all risk of a concussion. The Twins used to have this guy named Justin Morneau. He was a former MVP and he played first for the Twins for like a decade. I think he played for Pittsburgh most recently. Anyway, he actually was injured while running the bases, so he could have been a DH and still gotten a concussion. Now, the risk of getting a concussion is still higher behind the plate. So yes, I would move him to first. A, first base is open right now. B, the Twins have a reasonable replacement at catcher in Josmil Pinto. C, Mauer may not hit a lot of home runs, but his .476 slugging percentage would have been sixth among qualified catchers. D, Mauer would be able to play more games at first than at catcher. E, if Miguel Sano breaks camp with the Twins (and I think he will), there will be plenty of over-the-fence power at the other corner. "F, you're a gimp." Maybe so, but this is a low risk move and I'd do it right now. Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! Would you sign Johan Santana? Brad S., St. Paul, MN Yes, and I'd sign him to a twenty-year contract. I am essentially a completely biased Johan Santana guy. I'd bring him back at any cost and I wouldn't even care if he only served as Bert Blyleven's barber. For me, he's the best player of the last generation of Twins baseball and that includes Joe Mauer (who I love). Having Santana back in Minnesota just makes me happy. What if he somehow recovered from his injury? It would easily be the greatest story in Minnesota sports history. That might be an embellishment, but if Santana could come back for three productive seasons, he could get back on the Hall of Fame pace that he was on back in 2010. His glory days would pretty much all be in Minnesota and he'd be one of two Twins Hall of Famers from this era (Mauer again, save your rage). I'd sign him because I am a huge fan and he seems like a nice guy. At the right price, it's a low risk/high reward/good PR move. If he could actually pitch, it would be a cool bonus. What would your rotation look like in 2014, if no starters are signed between now and April? Brad S., St. Paul, MN Assuming that Santana is not brought back and the Twins decide to eschew their biggest need for another year, their rotation will be gross. Of the available arms, I would choose these five: Kevin Correia Kyle Gibson Scott Diamond Vance Worley Samuel Deduno I need a shower. That rotation will bring the Twins another top-5 pick in 2015. I don't want that. I would rather have a pick in the teens and watch a team win 70-75 games. Normally, I prefer bad teams to be really bad, but four years in a row with no hope is too much for me. Of those five, I'd really prefer that only Gibson is there next year. I'm willing to give Diamond and Worley another chance, but I'm not optimistic with either guy. In all honesty, I'd probably prefer Liam Hendriks to Sam Deduno, but I'm trying to go at least one week without being a stupid idiot. I still think that Deduno is a mirage. Also, he gets hurt a lot. Has anyone pointed that out? At least you can count on Hendriks to be awful every fifth day. What did you think of the World Series? Brad S., St. Paul, MN Excellent question! At one point I thought to myself, "I'd be happy if Carlos Beltran won a World Series." Why? I mean, when I got a promotion at work, Carlos Beltran didn't call me. He probably didn't even read the HR newsletter even though I FedEx'd it to him. It's almost as if we have no relationship whatsoever. As for the series, I find it hard to root for a team that has repeated success. I don't root against them, but I don't really care either. Both of these teams were going for a third title in the past ten seasons, so it was hard to care either way. Boston won. They went a billion years without a title or whatever, so I guess getting three in ten years is cool for them. Trevor Plouffe currently has 48 career home runs. Do you think he will hit 100 in his career? Brad S., St. Paul, MN Nope. Plouffe looked like a legitimate power hitter just about fifteen months ago. His 2013 season was actually pretty decent, and he improved slightly in most offensive areas. His home runs regressed and that hurt his slugging and therefore his OPS, OPS+, wRC+, WAR, OCEAN and every other acronym and acronym+ you can find. Now, he's a year from arbitration and about to be replaced by a younger, sexier, better player. 52 more home runs is not a lot. If Plouffe can just average the 14 he hit last season, he'd get there in four seasons. I'm not sure he's a regular player for the next four seasons though. He can't hit right-handed pitching, his defense is suspect at best and he doesn't do enough well to make up for what he doesn't do well. I think the Twins got the most they could have hoped for out of Plouffe (as a post-prospect, not as a former first-round pick) and I'd be surprised if he ever reaches that soft, round 100. Would you sign Bartolo Colon to fill one of the spots in the Twins rotation in 2014? C. Bolon, Email Land, Netscape An actual question! I can't include the whole question because it was very long. It was very amusing too, although you'll have to take my word on that. I'd probably pass on Colon unless he would be willing to take a one-year deal. Considering his age and appetite, I'd assume he'd want more stability. If he would sign for one-year and say, ten million, I'd do it. The Twins have the money and they need starters. Colon wouldn't transform the team from 96 losses to 96 wins, but he would be their best starter and he would help improve the team. If you believe in the concept of installing a "winning culture," finding a guy who can help propel a team from 66 wins to 75 wins is worthwhile. I can't see why he would want to pitch here, unless he had no other offers. Although, if the Twins could sign him and Santana, we could arrange for Colon to sheepishly return his ill-gotten 2005 Cy Young Award to the rightful owner. Who will be the Brian Dozier of 2014? Brad S., St. Paul, MN You mean ruggedly handsome? If so, I'm not sure. I'll need to wait until the Spring Training mug shots come out. If you are looking for the next breakout player, then I choose Aaron Hicks. The parallels are almost too eerie. Both were rushed to Minnesota before they were ready. Both were Spring Training/media darlings. Both were sent to AAA later than expected and did not return to the MLB team. Both sucked, although Dozier stopped sucking once he was awesome. For those reasons, I feel that Aaron Hicks will be the Brian Dozier of 2014. Thank you very much for indulging me. If you ever have the inkling to ask a question, but want an answer in an indeterminate period of time, just send me a message at kevinsloweywasframed@gmail.com. I spend 100 bucks a month for that email address, but all the Princes that keep emailing me about their kingdoms of riches should balance it all out. Have a great weekend, everyone!

State of the Team 1994 Record: 53-60, 4th in the BRAND NEW AL Central 1994 Overview: STEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE-RIKE! 1995 Outlook: Will there be a season? If so, where will Shane Mack be? Players Lost - Free Agency The seeds for the 1994 off-season were planted in 1993 when the (at the time) current collective bargaining agreement expired without a new agreement. A strike was a legit possibility and looked more and more likely as the 1994 season continued. On August 12, 1994, the strike began. On September 14, 1994, Commissioner Bud Selig cancelled the rest of the season and the playoffs/World Series. He was World Serious. So, the 1994 off-season was super weird. No one was really sure how long the strike would last and some players retired and some left for other baseball pursuits. Kent Hrbek retired, which sucked. Shane Mack left for Japan, which sucked. The Twins lost two of their four best offensive players and they really weren't very good before that. Welcome to the Scott Stahoviak era! Don't get too comfortable. The Twins also lost Jim Deshaies and Rich Garces. Deshaies was a dishaster and Garces was a failed prospect who had a four-season stretch of effective pitching about four years later. Players Gained - Free Agency The Twins didn't really sign anyone of note, although they did sign some players who I had heard of. First, the Twins brought in Kevin Maas, likely in an effort to replace some of the power that was retiring/leaving. Maas didn't play in the Majors in 1994 and really, he barely played in 1995. He made it through 22 games before being cut loose and signing a Minor League deal to return to the Yankees. He never reached the Bigs again. They also signed Greg Harris, a starter who had some relative success earlier in his career. Harris threw 32.2 innings, posted a dope 8.82 ERA and was gone by August. He will be forever remembered by me like this: http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-KIGn8LoXers/UmqcpXrwXEI/AAAAAAAABEg/y8e1cqXbzR8/s320/greg+harris+card.jpg Jerald Clark was another '94-absent player, although he actually produced for the Twins in 1995. He hit .339/.354/.550 in 113 plate appearances. He hurt his knee in mid-June and never played MLB baseball again. Finally, the Twins signed Riccardo Ingram, who had 10 plate appearances in 1995 but will be best remembered for having a cool name. TRADEZ! The strike brought one of the weirdest trades in MLB history and one that would have literally made the Twins Daily forums explode with vicious and delicious rage. Dave Winfield was traded on August 31, for a player to be named later. When the season was cancelled, there was no real reason to complete the trade. So, some executives from the Indians took some executives from the Twins out to dinner and paid the bill. AT THE HENNEPIN COUNTY TAXPAYERS EXPENSE, probably. Biggest Splash The Twins claimed Rich Robertson off waivers from the Pirates. In 1995, he threw 51.2 innings and had a 3.83 ERA. Not bad! However, as we learned from American Beauty: look closer. He walked over 5 batters per nine innings and he barely struck out more than 6 batters per nine innings. Not surprisingly, Robertson was a train wreck of an earthquake of a disaster in 1996 and 1997, starting 57 awful games and posting an ERA around 5.5. Ah, the mid-90s. Biggest Miss Shane Mack left for Japan after the 1994 season. He likely made that decision at least partially because of the strike. I have no idea if the Twins tried to keep them or if they were allowed to try to keep him, but it would have been great if he had stayed. My Own Personal Heartbreak Back to Mack. I retroactively loved Shane Mack. I didn't appreciate him as a kid because I was Team Kirby and Mack was like his second fiddle. I should have made room in my heart for Kirby Puckett and Shane Mack, but that is my regret. I'll work it out in shock therapy. Had Mack stayed with the Twins for even three more seasons, he probably would go down as one of the best Twins of all-time. He was still a very productive player during his two seasons in Japan and he was even still pretty good when he came back to the States in '97 and '98. He dealt with a lot of injuries, but he played well when healthy. It's a shame that the strike stole Shane Mack from us. I blame everyone. Arbitrary Overall Assessment: F An F for the Twins and an F for baseball. Seriously, there was no 1994 World Series. I mean, how do things get that bad? Labor strife and management control over employees are historical problems, but we're talking about a professional sport. Millionaires and billionaires and blah blah blah. I'm just glad that things have been relatively peaceful ever since. Sports strikes are among the most baffling occurrences on Earth, at least to me. I understand crop circles better. I understand Sasquatch sightings better. I understand Matthew McConaughey better. The Twins get an F, but I'm not sure what more they could have done differently. The strike sucked, to state the obvious. Next week, we'll look at the 1995 off-season. See you then! Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed!