Brad Swanson

I'm a big WAR guy, but I still feel WAR doesn't fully appreciate innings pitched. The strange thing is that a pitcher who pitches 200 innings greatly decreases the amount of innings pitched by (typically) below-replacement level sixth and seventh starters.

According to Fangraphs, Nolasco has been worth $49.8 million. He was worth $15.2 mil last season. Their numbers aren't perfect, but it's a point of reference.

4 years, 48 mil, 1 mil buyout in 2018 with some sort of vesting option. Very reasonable.

They won't bite. It's not just about keeping who we want to keep. You have to give something valuable to get something valuable in return. I like Rosario and Berrios too, but at their peak is there a chance either is as good as Bailey is right now? I'd say it is unlikely.

If the Twins have really signed Nolasco, I'd be even more inclined to move a package centered around Rosario and Berrios for Bailey. The Twins have an entire year to work out an extension and could legitimately point toward a team that could contend for a playoff spot in 2015 with Bailey, Nolasco, Gibson and Meyer in the rotation and Mauer, Sano, Arcia and Buxton (among others) on offense. Plus, I read in another thread that Ryan Hanigan is "going to be traded" and he would be a great fit behind the plate at a very low cost. If the Twins could get Bailey and Hanigan, then I'd probably start printing my counterfeit parade tickets right now.

I'd love to get my greasy hands on Hanigan. He was terrible last year but did have a BABIP of .216. Hanigan was an extremely underrated player from 2009-2012. If the Twins are serious about pursuing Homer Bailey, getting Hanigan thrown in would be a monster coup.

I love this signing more for what it symbolizes than who the pitcher is. Nolasco is fine, no doubt, but the Twins bucking their "we don't build through free agency" trend is much more important to me. I would love to see the Twins land one more good starter. Garza would be ideal, but I'd take Kazmir or Arroyo now that Nolasco is (reportedly) in the fold.

I spent the last hour deciding if I like this signing. I do. I think Nolasco could be peaking right now and I think that he is the type of pitcher who can do well for a lot of years. It seems pretty low-risk as far as starting pitchers go. I wrote a lot more about it if you really want my analysis: http://smartpitcher.blogspot.com/2013/11/ricky-nolasco-signs-with-minnesota.html There's a chart. It's fun.

I'm not sure how possible this is, but some sort of "cover it live" type action during games would be great. My vision would be similar to how ESPN does their Daily Dime Live during NBA games. There would be the TD guys kind of running things, rotating, answering questions, facilitating discussion and whatnot. Then us pleebs in the crowd could follow along and add our two cents. Could be fun.

I'd love to keep Gibson and offer Berrios, but I could see where Cincinnati would want a more MLB-ready starter. I'd do bad things to get Bailey. I think he's really good. I'd go 6/100 if that's what it took.

Ah, understood. I used Fangraphs' WAR. Only 66 in their HOF. Since I'm questioning others, here is my ballot: • Jeff Bagwell • Barry Bonds • Roger Clemens • Tom Glavine • Greg Maddux • Mike Piazza • Tim Raines • Curt Schilling • Frank Thomas • Larry Walker Some very tough omissions too: Biggio, Trammell, Edgar, Mussina. It's insane that Kenny Lofton isn't on the ballot anymore.

Just curious, why 75? That means no Reggie Jackson, Johnny Bench, Carlton Fisk, Rod Carew, Paul Molitor, Harmon Killebrew, Kirby Puckett, Tony Gwynn, Ozzie Smith...

Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! Yesterday, I outlined six starting pitchers who I think the Twins should target in an effort to boost their rotation. If you missed it, you can find it here. I am focusing on pitchers who are far from free agency, but maybe not household names. I want to find another Vance Worley, but this time, I'd like for it to work out a bit better. Instead of a flood of sadness, perhaps a geyser of effective innings? My one question to myself was why would teams give up these valuable players? It's not like they don't have idiots checking Fangraphs for walk and ground ball rates too. They know what xFIPs are. However, the Phillies traded Vance Worley just one year ago. While we all know how that turned out, it could have worked out nicely for the Twins. I mean, Worley had an excellent rookie season in 2011. He regressed a bit in 2012, but fought injuries too. He was just 25 and years from free agency. There was still reason to think he would be an effective pitcher going forward. He certainly wasn't in 2013, although he could still bounce back. The Vance Worley trade looks like a failure because of how he (and Trevor May to an extent) performed, but the idea wasn't a bad one. Find a good, but not dominant starter and add him to the back of the rotation cheaply. Moves like those free the team up for hypothetical free agent signings and blockbuster trades that aren't likely to happen 'round these parts. We can dream though. Anyway, I have six more players who I think fit that Worley archetype. Would you like to see them? Ivan Nova - New York Yankees - Age 27 in 2014, Free Agent in 2017 Nova probably seems like an odd inclusion. You don't have to dig to find out why he's good, he was just good in 2013. His 3.10 ERA was better than his 3.68 xFIP, so it's not like there's some great hidden value that some dork on Fangraphs can unearth. To explain his inclusion, I'll create a narrative. I just think Nova's a fine pitcher and I'm not sure a fine pitcher is right for the Yankees. The Yankees want stars, not values. They want CC Sabathias not Ivan Novas. Don't get me wrong, they'll use Ivan Novas, but they prefer to have BIG STAR names instead. Nova is a good pitcher. His ground ball rate is outstanding, he limits walks and his strikeout rate is good, although not great. The Twins would properly appreciate his value. End narrative. Wily Peralta - Milwaukee Brewers - Age 25 in 2014, Free Agent in 2019 When the Brewers signed Kyle Lohse right before last season, I posited that Peralta might become available via trade. I was completely wrong, but maybe the right deal didn't come along. Peralta's youth and upside would make him a more expensive trade target. His talent is so great that it might be worth paying a slight premium to acquire him. Peralta throws hard (94-95) but it hasn't translated to MLB strikeouts just yet (16.1% K rate in 2013). His walk rate is not high, but higher than I'd like (9.1%). His ground ball rate is nice though (51%). With some natural development, Peralta could still reach his lofty prospect ceiling. Right now, he's a number 4 or 5, but he could become a 3 and maybe even a 2. 1 to watch. David Phelps - New York Yankees - Age 27 in 2014, Free Agent in 2019 Back to the Big Apple! Phelps has shuffled between the Yankee rotation and bullpen over the past two seasons. As a reliever, he racks up strikeouts, with a 28% rate in 2013. As a starter, his K rate drops almost ten points, but still hovers around league-average. His walk rate actually dipped as a starter too. Phelps is a fly ball pitcher and we all know that left-handed power is suppressed at Target Field. His 2013 ERA was just under five, but his xFIP was just over four. He was lucky with HR/FB ratio, but had some bad luck with strand rate and BABIP. In all, Phelps could be a reliable 4th or 5th starter and I can't imagine he would cost much in return. Todd Redmond - Toronto Blue Jays - Age 29 in 2014, Free Agent in 2020 Redmond might be a one-year wonder, but his 2013 season was a quiet breakout campaign. Redmond basically spent all of 2009-2012 in AAA with Atlanta and Cincinnati. The Blue Jays had some injury issues in their rotation, so Redmond got his chance. He made 14 starts for the Blue Jays and posted a decent 4.32 ERA. His xFIP of 4.16 nearly matches, so you can basically believe what you see on the surface. Redmond's primary pitch is his sinker, but he has extreme fly ball tendencies. Very odd. Redmond gave up a lot of home runs last season, but his strikeout and walk rates were both very good and right in line with how he pitched in AAA for all those years. The Twins have had luck with sinkerballers in the past, and if Redmond becomes available again (he was waived twice last year), he could be a decent fifth starter for a few years. Just don't give him a Blackburn contract. Esmil Rogers - Toronto Blue Jays - Age 28 in 2014, Free Agent in 2017 BACK TO BACK BLUE JAYS! Canada is cool. Rogers throws hard, with a fastball sitting 93-94. His ERA in 2013 was a poor 4.77, but his xFIP was an acceptable 4.06. Rogers split his season between the bullpen and rotation and actually saw his strikeout rate jump when starting (17.4% to 11.3%) although he generally struck out more batters as a reliever in the past. Rogers gets enough ground balls and was a little unlucky with home runs last season. Rogers isn't going to be anything more than a 4th or 5th starter, but he could fill that role very cheaply. If nothing else, he could be Anthony Swarzak's replacement in long relief when Swarzak starts next year. Right? Nick Tepesch - Texas Rangers - Age 25 in 2014, Free Agent in 2019 I'm fond of Tepesch. In 2013, Tepesch was an early Rookie of the Year candidate, before fading hard in June and July. He ended the season with 17 starts, an ERA of 4.84 and an xFIP of 3.82. Tepesch is triple good - good strikeout rate, good walk rate, good ground ball rate. He's a sinker/slider pitcher who works around 90-91. Tepesch's slider is excellent, but his sinker and fastball were very hittable in 2013. He's just 25, but he projects to be the Rangers' sixth starter at best, possibly lower considering they just signed Colby Lewis. The Rangers could use a LF/DH kind of guy and the Twins have this Josh Willingham dude who they should really be considering shopping around. It's just an idea, but Tepesch isn't bad return for a 35-year-old, soon-to-be-free agent coming of an injury-plagued season. That's my list, what do you think? Obviously some of these guys are more impressive than others. If the Twins just exchange Mike Pelfrey for Esmil Rogers in the 2014 rotation, fans should rightfully picket Target Field and post snarky (but not clever) comments on the Twins' Facebook page. However, if the Twins could possibly land a big free agent like Matt Garza and then make a trade for someone like Dallas Keuchel, the rotation could be pretty decent for a good while. I'm finding it hard to believe the Twins will sign a big free agent, do you really think they'll sign two or more? All teams need 4th and 5th starters. Kevin Correia is the only Twins pitcher who I would consider a reliable 4th or 5th starter. Unfortunately, he's masquerading as their Ace. Adding to the back of the rotation is not exciting, but it helps win games. If Correia was the Twins' 4th best starter, the rotation could be pretty good. The 2000s Twins had some unsexy, but reliable starters at the back of their rotations. The 12 guys I outlined won't help transform the team, but they are good supplements. Some could be even better. I support exploring all avenues.

If Michael Bolton had short, dignified, gray hair for his whole career, do you think he would have been taken more seriously as an artist?

This is excellent analysis! I really like Escobar too, and I hope he beats Florimon out for the SS job in Spring Training. I think his offensive upside is clearly higher and he might even be a better defender. He's 2 years younger than Florimon too, so there's no downside.

Completely agree with you spycake, I'd use free agency first too. I really agree with your idea for free agency too. Identify the guys you like and don't settle for those you don't. I'm obviously a little more willing to trade prospects for veterans, but I can understand why giving 3-4 players for 1 player isn't for everyone. I wouldn't give up on Gibson, but to get a quality pitcher in return, I'd be willing to listen.

I'd center a package for Zimmermann around Gibson. The best-case scenario for Gibson is Zimmermann, in a lot of ways. By no means do I think the Twins would get a discount if they trade for these players. However, a guy like Porcello might be cheaper now that he would be in two years. Another point - 8 of the 10 guys I identified will be free agents at this time in 2015. That is, unless they are signed to extensions before then. More and more teams are signing their players to extensions before they hit free agency. I'd say the odds are good that at least half of those eight players are not free agents at this time in two years. Of the four potential names that remain, the Twins would be competing against 29 other teams for their services. They may not get a discount if they trade for them, but they do get exclusive negotiating rights.

My point would be that I don't know what Eddie Rosario or Jose Berrios will be as MLB players, but I have a pretty good idea of who Jordan Zimmermann is. Also, signing a free agent isn't as simple as just offering the most money. The player still has to want to come here. If you trade for a guy, you have time to expose them to the culture and let them see if they like it here. You can always trade them if it doesn't work out. The Cubs got a pretty good haul for Garza this past season. Personally, I'd prefer the Twins sign Garza and someone else in free agency this off-season too, but if they can't do that, I'd have no problem with trading some prospects for a veteran, proven starter.

I would agree with that statement, but they would have two seasons to work out an extension or make another trade for different prospects. It just depends on how you view prospects. If you think that all prospects are worth keeping because they could pan out, then you don't trade any of them unless you have a massive surplus or get an offer that you can't refuse. If you view prospects as trade chips that can be used to acquire proven talent, then you make trades. I'm not sure one strategy is better than the other, but both have merit.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=2489-Twins-Starting-Pitching-Trade-Targets

Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! Yesterday, I started to delve into starting pitchers who I want the Twins to target in potential trades. I outlined five starters, three from the Cincinnati Reds. If you missed it, click here. Today, I have five more pitchers for you, free of charge! There are two legitimate "aces" on this list and both are almost certainly pipe dreams. That being said, it's fun to aim high. I hope the Twins aim high, because I'd love to be surprised by my favorite team. Rick Porcello - Age 25 in 2014, arbitration eligible until 2016 If the Twins trade for Porcello, we could officially start the tally on who says "Por-cello" and who says "Por-chello." Personally, I say "Por-ceyo" in honor of the Spanish language. Regardless of how you incorrectly say his name, Porcello might represent the best buying opportunity of the ten players I am outlining. Porcello reached the Majors at age 20 and he's more than held his own since then. His career 4.51 ERA isn't dynamic, but he's just 24. He's averaged 174 innings in those five seasons and given up a ton of hits, leading the league in that category in 2012. Why is Porcello worth buying? He's got a great curveball and an improving primary fastball. He's finally getting some strikeouts with the former pitch, almost doubling his strikeout rate using that pitch since 2009. His curve is dynamic and his control is outstanding. His career walk rate is 6%, compared with 2013's AL average of 8%. Porcello gets mad ground balls, posting a career rate of 52.8% and a career-high rate of 55.3% in 2013. The most compelling stat is Porcello's 19.3% strikeout rate in 2013, nearly six points higher than any other year in his career. Add up his sparkling walk rate, extreme ground ball tendencies and improving strikeout rate and you get a 3.19 xFIP in 2013. Outstanding! Porcello will be 25 in December. He won't be a free agent until 2016 and a trade followed by a long-term extension would be an excellent move by the Twins. He's good right now and I think he's going to get better. This is the lowest his value is going to be. Now is the time to buy. David Price - Age 28 in 2014, arbitration eligible until 2016 David Price is really good. It's going to take a lot to get him though. I imagine the Rays don't budge unless Byron Buxton or Miguel Sano are included in a deal. Even if the Twins can talk them out of those stud prospects, the Rays would ask for Alex Meyer or Kohl Stewart and then what's the real point? Price is almost certainly worth those prospects (maybe not Buxton, but even that is worth arguing). He's one of the best pitchers in baseball. His strikeout rate dipped in 2013, but his walk rate plummeted. His ground ball rate in 2013 reverted to his pre-2012 levels and he also missed time with a triceps injury. I love the player, but I don't love him as a trade target. He's too expensive in all ways. He'd cost a blue chip prospect and then hundreds of millions of dollars in payroll-tightening money. Price is great, but I'd still pass. Jeff Samardzija - Age 29 in 2014, arbitration eligible until 2016 Samardzija really harnessed his control in 2012 and transformed into a nice pitcher. If you watched him early in his career, you likely would have never seen him coming. In 61 2012-13 starts, Samardzija has a strikeout rate around 24% (20% is NL average), a walk rate around 8% (just about NL average) and an xFIP of about 3.40. His 2013 season wasn't as pretty as his 2012 season, but he did throw nearly 40 more innings and had a slight jump in BABIP to go with a slight decrease in his strand rate. He throws hard too. His fastball sits 94 and touches 98. His slider is nasty too. I like Samardzija as a trade target, especially because I think he would be cheaper than just about anyone else on this list. Max Scherzer - Age 29 in 2014, arbitration eligible until 2015 Oh man, I wish I had written this last off-season and I wish I had known that Scherzer was going to blossom into a Cy Young winner. It was all legit too. He's harnessed his command and gotten his walk rate below AL average. He's still throws really hard. He still racks up strikeouts. He still has two different colored eyes. His 2013 was just a touch lucky (.259 BABIP), but Scherzer is still a really good Ace-ish starting pitcher, who is still only 29. Of course he'll be a free agent next Winter and if the Twins were to make a trade for him, they would absolutely have to have an extension in place. The Tigers' asking price will likely be similar to the Rays' asking price for Price. Much like Price, I love the pitcher but I don't feel good about the cost. His fly ball tendencies would play nicely at Target Field though. Man, he's good. Maybe the Twins can scoop him up as a free agent in November of 2014. Jordan Zimmermann - Age 28 in 2014, arbitration eligible until 2016 Zimmermann fits the Twins' profile a bit better than the other guys on this list. He really limits walks. His career rate is 5.4% and his 4.6% rate was 8th best in the NL in 2013. He doesn't rack up strikeouts, but he usually settles in right around league-average. His ground ball rate is trending upwards and his innings pitched have increased in each of the last three seasons, hitting 213.1 in 2013. Unlike most Twins pitchers, Zimmermann throws a baseball very hard. His fastball sits 93-94 and touches 97. He also has an effective slider, curve and change. His deep arsenal and great command are very enticing. I'm not sure Washington can keep Zimmermann if they have any interest in keeping Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg. If that's true, the Twins could land a very good number 2 starter if the right trade is proposed. Speaking of the right trade, who would you give up to get these guys? I know that I would prefer to keep all of the Twins' consensus top four prospects - Buxton, Sano, Meyer and Stewart. If the Twins call around to these teams and find that they all want one of those guys, then I'd start pursuing potential free agents even more aggressively. If the Twins can add two quality starting pitchers this off-season, they can transform the team. If they can pull this massive feat off, look at the potential starting rotation in 2015: Homer Bailey Matt Garza Alex Meyer Kyle Gibson Kevin Slowey That last one might be a joke, but if your first four are as good as those four, then your fifth starter could be just about anyone. I honestly think that rotation could be acquired for about $30-35 million per season and a couple of good prospects. Suddenly, the Twins have a ton of young starting pitching in the low Minors. If the Reds wanted someone like Jose Berrios (plus more, Bailey is really good), you'd have to make that deal. Isn't the goal with prospects to grow a guy like Bailey? Bailey's grown. You can get him if you give up some of your depth. If the Reds wanted Berrios, Eddie Rosario and a young starter at Rookie ball, I'd say "yes, please send me your awesome pitcher, I'd like to have him now." Note: Obviously, the Rosario suspension news throws a bit of a wrench into this plan. However, he's going to be suspended 50 games, not imprisoned for life. These names are all just examples, so please don't yell at me. I don't know if that would be a trade the Reds or Twins would make. I don't know how many of the teams who hold these pitchers are interested in what the Twins could sell. I do know that the rate of prospect success is pretty low. I also know that good MLB players typically remain good. The Twins have a surplus of prospects and a deficit of quality, MLB starting pitchers. It seems like a logical trade-off. Otherwise: "You always talk about future, future. ... But if you only worry about the future, then I guess a lot of us won't be part of it." That's right Johan, but in this case, the "us" would be Joe Mauer, Glen Perkins, and Kevin Correia (joking). If the Twins really aren't careful, the "us" could be Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano. They have to address MLB starting pitching at some point. The time is now. Chant with me: BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY!

The best thing about free content is that you don't have to consume it. I think GATG is a fine podcast and they have every right to add their own flair to the Twins talk.

For those who cannot read the article, start getting excited about Kohl Stewart. They describe him as both polished and "a no 1 type that could move quickly through a developmental system." 4 potential plus pitches, with the fastball and slider as potential "plus-plus." They write that he could end up being the top pitcher in the minor-league class...by the end of next season. Nice.

There can only be 20-40 Cy Young Winners in the amount of time you have provided. If you consider players winning multiple times, that number gets even lower. There are 30 MLB teams. How many would be considered better than mediocre?