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Brad Swanson

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  1. I'm not really one to brag, but this mailbag is starting to take on a life of its own. I have not one, not two, not three, but FOUR questions from people who are not me. Sure, three of those questions are from the same person, but who are you to pick nits? In fact, what would you do? Wha-wha-wha-what would you do? I know what I'm going to do. Answer these questions: I really enjoy reading your blog - keep up the good work! Anyway, I saw something that the Twins intend to ship (Andrew) Albers to a Korean team for cash considerations. Why would the Twins ship their Minor League Pitcher of the Year, and one of their most promising young prospects off for nothing? Seems kind of crazy for me. Emailer, Webspace First, thank you very much for the positive feedback. I really do appreciate it. I take very little about this blog seriously, but the nice things that people say are truly valued. I also appreciate the constructive criticism. The invitations to shove "x" into or up "y" are not quite as cool, but I have a strict policy in my life to consider everything. So...Albers...right! On the surface, it makes almost zero sense. Albers might have been the best human interest story of the 2013 season. His first two starts didn't come with the fanfare of Kyle Gibson's debut, but Albers delivered A+ results. However, after those first two starts, Albers managed just a 5.70 ERA in 8 starts. He barely averaged 5 innings, gave up 58 hits and only managed 21 strikeouts. Albers isn't a strikeout pitcher, but a strikeout every other inning is paltry, if we're being kind. Then, you have to consider the fact that the Twins likely have just one spot open in the rotation, with Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes, Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey already penciled in. That left Albers, Vance Worley, Scott Diamond, Kyle Gibson and Sam Deduno to battle for the fifth spot. Albers would likely have been near the bottom of that list, so the Twins did him a solid and let him pursue a season in Korea where he'll get to pitch and maybe build himself some value for an MLB return. I imagine that when he is ready to come back to the Majors, the Twins and Albers will be mutually interested. Although I cannot read your mailbag before it is posted, I have a follow-up to a question I am guessing you will answer about Andrew Albers. If you could ship one Twins player to Korea, who would it be and why? Thanks, big fan - http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-jyNLzmzNez0/UvGnkkFf_vI/AAAAAAAABQI/Ewi4GXqjffQ/s1600/449262809_67838bd97d_o.jpg Is this Airplane? Well, the ideal candidate signed with the Phillies, so he's out. If I'm going to start selling humans, I'd prefer to make a big score and get out of the game ASAP. Thus, I'm selfishly selling Joe Mauer to Korea for 25 million bucks. I'd have all the money I need to live or at least all the money I'd need to get myself a sweet one-hour documentary about wasting a fortune in a short period of time. I'd be hated in Minnesota and likely in the U.S., but I could just build a gold wall to keep angry people away. I'd also build a catapult, but that's just for fun. Here's a three-pack from @TalktoContact, the always entertaining Twins podcast. Follow them on Twitter and listen to their podcast. If you do, I will be your friend. Which current Twin forecast to make the 25-man roster is the edgiest? Does anyone have attitude? Grit? Edge. Attitude. Grit. I can't find these words in Excel. I literally have no idea how to sort these columns. I'm going to try to answer this anyway. I'm not sure that anyone has "grit" or "edge" but I do think that some of these players have "Minnesota Grit," a term I just invented that some will certainly find offensive. Brian Dozier and Trevor Plouffe had long hair, so that counts. Sam Deduno eats necklaces, so he's got MG (Minnesota Grit, acronyms sell, baby!). Typically, these terms are used to try to attach value to an otherwise valueless player because he plays really hard. Or, it's used to describe the guy on the team who is most likely to mix his chaw with sunflower seeds and dirt from the infield. I don't think the Twins have one of those guys, so I'll go with Sam Deduno and his own version of pica. How is it possible that Gardy and Rick Anderson both still have their jobs? Why is Anderson Andy? I wish he was Ricky. Gardy and Ricky has a nice ring. Gardy and Andy is a mouthful. Seriously, say it out loud right now. Now try yelling it. Is your boss coming over? Anyway, I think they have their jobs because it is very hard to pinpoint why the Twins currently suck. Well, that's not fully true. They suck because they don't have a lot of talent. In my opinion, you fire a coach or coaches when a team performs poorly relative to their talent level. If the talent level is low and the team performs at a low level, then the World makes sense. If the talent level is high and the team performs at a low level, then heads should roll. The Twins have a few talented players, but they don't have a talented team. Firing Gardy would be a symbolic move or a move that panders to those who think that "something has to change." Terry Ryan would be blaming the poor performance of his untalented roster on the manager, which might or might not be justifiable. If the Twins want to make a symbolic or pandering move, that is their prerogative. I just don't think that type of move would fix the issues with the team. Of course, the team is getting better, which brings us to... What would have to happen for Gardy to get fired during the 2014 campaign? What about AFTER the season? For Gardy to get fired during the season, he'd have to lose the clubhouse. There would have to be negative and troubling reports in the papers and on prominent blogs (read: not this one). He would have to get publicly questioned by a good player and since the Twins don't have a lot of good players, this would be quite difficult. Gardy is a players' manager, so I don't see this scenario playing out. For Gardy to get fired after the season, the Twins would have to lose another 96 games (or more). That symbolic, pandering move I mentioned earlier? That would look pretty good to the front office after another terrible season. If it meant that Terry Ryan and other prominent members of the front office could keep their jobs, then I think they would fire Gardy for self-preservation. I know I would. In fact, if my company told me, "you need to fire Ron Gardenhire, or we'll find a new teacher to take your place," I'd do it immediately. It would be unprecedented. For the record, I think the Twins will win 70-75 games in 2014 and Gardy will keep his job. This is all on the record. Is Josmil Pinto Chris Parmelee? Thanks, I love reading. Brad S., St. Paul, MN That question is confusing. I think it needs a comma...or a dash...or a hyphen...or something else... This obviously refers to each player having crazy hot Septembers and bringing hot, crazy expectations with them to spring training the next year. It seems some are fearful that Pinto will flop in his season-starting debut, much like Parmelee did. I get it. However, we're talking apples and oranges here. These are two completely different players. It isn't even about their talent or performance or pedigree or what have you. It's as simple as the fact that they are two completely different human beings with different DNA and genes and pheromones and everything. There are a billion examples of a player having a good September call-up and then being a good player going forward. There are a billion examples of a player having a terrible September call-up and then being a good player going forward. You can mix and match good with terrible in those phrases all you like. In fact, I'm creating a turn-based iPhone app for that very purpose. Boring Words with Friends. The fact remains that each player is an individual. So, no, Pinto is not Parmelee. He's Pinto. And you know what, that's pretty neat. Are you excited for pitchers and catchers? I know I am. Brad S., St. Paul, MN Not to disagree with myself, a loyal reader, but no, not really. I know this is the symbolic start of the baseball season, but it's not a real start of the baseball season. I love playing catch, I kind of love watching pros play catch, but I'm not a fan of reading about players playing catch. Once the actual spring training games get going, I'll be excited for about an hour. Then some scrub like Gloob Newstrom will step up to the plate wearing number 87 and I'll remember why I never make it through a full spring training game. I'm excited for Opening Day in April though. Sorry to be such a bummer. It's part of my new plan to end every post on a bummer. NOT! Here's a rare photo of Ron Gardenhire in concert: http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-6rD-dIbrRD8/UvGkw24YUPI/AAAAAAAABP8/iLcu1CrfyMM/s1600/gardysings.jpg Oh, evenflow. Have a great weekend, everyone! Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed!
  2. Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! I'm not really one to brag, but this mailbag is starting to take on a life of its own. I have not one, not two, not three, but FOUR questions from people who are not me. Sure, three of those questions are from the same person, but who are you to pick nits? In fact, what would you do? Wha-wha-wha-what would you do? I know what I'm going to do. Answer these questions: I really enjoy reading your blog - keep up the good work! Anyway, I saw something that the Twins intend to ship (Andrew) Albers to a Korean team for cash considerations. Why would the Twins ship their Minor League pitcher of the year, and one of their most promising young prospects off for nothing? Seems kind of crazy for me. Emailer, Webspace First, thank you very much for the positive feedback. I really do appreciate it. I take very little about this blog seriously, but the nice things that people say are truly valued. I also appreciate the constructive criticism. The invitations to shove "x" into or up "y" are not quite as cool, but I have a strict policy in my life to consider everything. So...Albers...right! On the surface, it makes almost zero sense. Albers might have been the best human interest story of the 2013 season. His first two starts didn't come with the fanfare of Kyle Gibson's debut, but Albers delivered A+ results. However, after those first two starts, Albers managed just a 5.70 ERA in 8 starts. He barely averaged 5 innings, gave up 58 hits and only managed 21 strikeouts. Albers isn't a strikeout pitcher, but a strikeout every other inning is paltry, if we're being kind. Then, you have to consider the fact that the Twins likely have just one spot open in the rotation, with Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes, Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey already penciled in. That left Albers, Vance Worley, Scott Diamond, Kyle Gibson and Sam Deduno to battle for the fifth spot. Albers would likely have been near the bottom of that list, so the Twins did him a solid and let him pursue a season in Korea where he'll get to pitch and maybe build himself some value for an MLB return. I imagine that when he is ready to come back to the Majors, the Twins and Albers will be mutually interested. Although I cannot read your mailbag before it is posted, I have a follow-up to a question I am guessing you will answer about Andrew Albers. If you could ship one Twins player to Korea, who would it be and why? Thanks, big fan - http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-jyNLzmzNez0/UvGnkkFf_vI/AAAAAAAABQI/Ewi4GXqjffQ/s1600/449262809_67838bd97d_o.jpg Is this Airplane? Well, the ideal candidate signed with the Phillies, so he's out. If I'm going to start selling humans, I'd prefer to make a big score and get out of the game ASAP. Thus, I'm selfishly selling Joe Mauer to Korea for 25 million bucks. I'd have all the money I need to live or at least all the money I'd need to get myself a sweet one-hour documentary about wasting a fortune in a short period of time. I'd be hated in Minnesota and likely in the U.S., but I could just build a gold wall to keep angry people away. I'd also build a catapult, but that's just for fun. Here's a three-pack from @TalktoContact, the always entertaining Twins podcast. Follow them on Twitter and listen to their podcast. If you do, I will be your friend. Which current Twin forecasted to make the 25-man roster is the edgiest? Does anyone have attitude? Grit? Edge. Attitude. Grit. I can't find these words in Excel. I literally have no idea how to sort these columns. I'm going to try to answer this anyway. I'm not sure that anyone has "grit" or "edge" but I do think that some of these players have "Minnesota Grit," a term I just invented that some will certainly find offensive. Brian Dozier and Trevor Plouffe had long hair, so that counts. Sam Deduno eats necklaces, so he's got MG (Minnesota Grit, acronyms sell, baby!). Typically, these terms are used to try to attach value to an otherwise valueless player because he plays really hard. Or, it's used to describe the guy on the team who is most likely to mix his chaw with sunflower seeds and dirt from the infield. I don't think the Twins have one of those guys, so I'll go with Sam Deduno and his own version of pica. How is it possible that Gardy and Rick Anderson both still have their jobs? Why is Anderson Andy? I wish he was Ricky. Gardy and Ricky has a nice ring. Gardy and Andy is a mouthful. Seriously, say it out loud right now. Now try yelling it. Is your boss coming over? Anyway, I think they have their jobs because it is very hard to pinpoint why the Twins currently suck. Well, that's not fully true. They suck because they don't have a lot of talent. In my opinion, you fire a coach or coaches when a team performs poorly relative to their talent level. If the talent level is low and the team performs at a low level, then the World makes sense. If the talent level is high and the team performs at a low level, then heads should roll. The Twins have a few talented players, but they don't have a talented team. Firing Gardy would be a symbolic move or a move that panders to those who think that "something has to change." Terry Ryan would be blaming the poor performance of his untalented roster on the manager, which might or might not be justifiable. If the Twins want to make a symbolic or pandering move, that is their prerogative. I just don't think that type of move would fix the issues with the team. Of course, the team is getting better, which brings us to... What would have to happen for Gardy to get fired during the 2014 campaign? What about AFTER the season? For Gardy to get fired during the season, he'd have to lose the clubhouse. There would have to be negative and troubling reports in the papers and on prominent blogs (read: not this one). He would have to get publicly questioned by a good player and since the Twins don't have a lot of good players, this would be quite difficult. Gardy is a players' manager, so I don't see this scenario playing out. For Gardy to get fired after the season, the Twins would have to lose another 96 games (or more). That symbolic, pandering move I mentioned earlier? That would look pretty good to the Front Office after another terrible season. If it meant that Terry Ryan and other prominent members of the Front Office could keep their jobs, then I think they would fire Gardy for self-preservation. I know I would. In fact, if my company told me, "you need to fire Ron Gardenhire, or we'll find a new teacher to take your place," I'd do it immediately. It would be unprecedented. For the record, I think the Twins will win 70-75 games in 2014 and Gardy will keep his job. This is all on the record. Is Josmil Pinto Chris Parmelee? Thanks, I love reading. Brad S., St. Paul, MN That question is confusing. I think it needs a comma...or a dash...or a hyphen...or something else... This obviously refers to each player having crazy hot Septembers and bringing hot, crazy expectations with them to Spring Training the next year. It seems that some are fearful that Pinto will flop in his season-starting debut, much like Parmelee did. I get it. However, we're talking apples and oranges here. These are two completely different players. It isn't even about their talent or performance or pedigree or what have you. It's as simple as the fact that they are two completely different human beings with different DNA and genes and pheromones and everything. There are a billion examples of a player having a good September call-up and then being a good player going forward. There are a billion examples of a player having a terrible September call-up and then being a good player going forward. You can mix and match good with terrible in those phrases all you like. In fact, I'm creating a turn-based iPhone app for that very purpose. Boring Words with Friends. The fact remains that each player is an individual. So, no, Pinto is not Parmelee. He's Pinto. And you know what, that's pretty neat. Are you excited for pitchers and catchers? I know I am. Brad S., St. Paul, MN Not to disagree with myself a loyal reader, but no, not really. I know this is the symbolic start of the baseball season, but it's not a real start of the baseball season. I love playing catch, I kind of love watching pros play catch, but I'm not a fan of reading about players playing catch. Once the actual Spring Training games get going, I'll be excited for about an hour. Then some scrub like Gloob Newstrom will step up to the plate wearing number 87 and I'll remember why I never make it through a full Spring Training game. I'm excited for Opening Day in April though. Sorry to be such a bummer. It's part of my new plan to end every post on a bummer. NOT! Here's a rare photo of Ron Gardenhire in concert: http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-6rD-dIbrRD8/UvGkw24YUPI/AAAAAAAABP8/iLcu1CrfyMM/s1600/gardysings.jpg Oh, evenflow. Have a great weekend, everyone!
  3. Excellent analysis, as usual. I'm not excited about seeing Suzuki as the starter, but hopefully Pinto will be dynamic at AAA and force his way into the starting lineup.
  4. Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! Hey all, time for another installment of Forgotten Twins? If you don't remember, I scour the most important websites in the universe to determine if a particular Twins player is forgotten by society. I decided to sub out Bing for Fangraphs going forward. I thought it would be funny to use multiple search engines, but they're all the same, so the joke is on me. ENOUGH EXPLAINING! My memories of Fred Manrique This is going to sound awful, but I remember his dork glasses. I can picture him now... http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-F4wF4LCLJko/UthpHOCrc1I/AAAAAAAABMg/guwSiyOPVgo/s1600/manrique.jpg See? He could. Because of the glasses. My apologies, I had hoped that picture would be bigger. Now, making fun of someone who wears glasses is really uncool. I know this now. I was only aware of Fred Manrique as a seven-year-old with perfect vision. It was hard to keep my anti-glasses feelings to myself. Well, this joke is also on me, as this is what I look like today: http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-PbPzqDNOzis/UthpOhi7JjI/AAAAAAAABMo/vRxXBwne2XY/s1600/weird+al.jpg Fate is weird. Let's move on. Baseball Reference Manrique played just one season with the Twins. He hit .237/.254/.346, or as I like to call it "Rivas Style!" Manrique accumulated 1459 plate appearances over his nine-year career. He racked up 340 hits and 65 walks. He barely played three years' worth of games in those nine seasons. He played 376 of his games at second base, including all but one of his games with the Twins. Manrique very nearly went 20-20...in his career, ending with 20 bombs and 18 base bombs (a term I am trying to coin for stolen bases). Oh, and he was traded for Sammy Sosa. Don't look at the rest of the trade, just leave it alone. Fangraphs I'm adding Fangraphs to appeal to the saber crowd. From what I can ascertain on Fangraphs, Manrique was gritty. Wait. He had a .105 isolated power, which is poor. He had a 4.5% walk rate, which is poor. He had a .294 BABIP, which is about average. Manrique accumulated 2.0 fWAR in his career, almost entirely from some solid defense he played in the 1987 season with the White Sox. It's cold, but you could probably call him Fred Man-reeky. Wikipedia Wikipedia tells me that Manrique is a fifty-year-old former second baseman. That's a solid lead. He was born three weeks before my Dad, which is conveniently left out of his entry. He is from Bolivar State, Venezuela. Another former, forgotten (?) Twins player is from Ciudad Bolivar and you'll never guess who. Les Straker. It's Les Straker. According to his entry, he was a solid second baseman and an above-average shortstop. Whoever wrote this entry must have known something that his managers didn't know. In 1981, he was the youngest player in the Majors. Trivia! Google A cursory Google search brings back many glasses images of Manrique. I did find this card and he isn't wearing glasses: http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ousqm7DeN5k/UthqnJsYw4I/AAAAAAAABM0/Uy_ETysy7KY/s1600/manriquenoglasses.jpg I gotta say, he's pretty handsome. He looks good in his glasses too. A few pages into the search, I found this article about Manrique's ejection from a random June game in 1990. Apparently, he didn't like Jim Joyce's strike zone. Or, he knew that Joyce would one day rob us (and Armando Galarraga to a lesser extent) of a perfect game and staged a protest 20 years in advance. All I'm saying is that Manrique might be a Timecop. http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Nh9IoCCEttk/Uthq9If8mKI/AAAAAAAABM8/ckD7k8LxxhY/s1600/manriquetimecop.jpg Oh, and apparently Manrique is a member of Twins Daily. See. Now, he hasn't blogged or posted, so I'm guessing he's feeling self-conscious. Please Mr. Manrique, share your wisdom. Don't be afraid. eBay Most Manrique-related items on eBay are baseball cards. However, I did find this curious 8 x 10 autographed photo. It appears that Manrique wanted people think that he peed his own autograph. Don't believe me, check it out. I'm not sure what that accomplishes, but I imagine it makes for a good urban legend. If you don't like peeing autographs, here's a 50 baseball card lot of all Manrique! There are only 21 different cards for some reason. One of the cards appears to be a math cheat sheet or something and another has the word "glossy" on top. You can check the lot out for yourself. Was Manrique a Timecop nicknamed "Glossy?" http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-neBDPhVWczY/UthrLaXcArI/AAAAAAAABNE/WzEmxFc7bqA/s1600/manriquetimecopglossy.jpg Facebook Manrique does have a Facebook fan page, but it's just his Wikipedia entry. He doesn't even get a picture. Perhaps we could use this image: http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-rRoLIZZflRY/Uthrf6RqbvI/AAAAAAAABNM/DxzVerlRnIU/s1600/manriquesplits.jpg See, he's a Timecop! 18 people like Manrique. I'd "like" him too, but I wouldn't be able to deal with his constant updates. I'd probably block him like I block all my friends and co-workers. Just for the record, Manrique has three more likes than this blog. You can fix that...by liking Manrique's page and righting the ratio. Twitter I found a few cool Manrique-related tweets: Happy Birthday Fred Manrique! Former Minnesota Twins legend. pic.twitter.com/ACv5e1K9QD — H.M.S. Pinniped (@hmspinniped) November 5, 2013 This one (link) makes me laugh because it would be so easy to find a card with Manrique actually in a Twins uniform. Celebrity Sausage 4/2~ The Fred Manrique~ Portuguese Linguica with Saffron Rouille and Casa de Mendevil Velho Cheese — Hot Doug's (@hotdougs) April 2, 2013 I'm not sure what to say... @EdRad Fred Manrique! I love it! I have his autograph... he was the happiest person ever to give me one. That's awesome. — Brian (@Go_GoSox) August 13, 2011 I really like that one. It humanizes him. Even if he does like to make signature urine. Youtube Sadly, our beloved Fred Manrique is not represented on Youtube. You can blame MLB and their totalitarian video policy for that. Instead, here are a couple of youngsters also named Fred Manrique, each showcasing their skills. Looks good to me. Random Person I stopped someone in the hallway at work today and asked if they remembered Fred Manrique. He said, "Was he a math teacher?" Interesting that he would ask that without even knowing that Manrique wore glasses. I told him no, Manrique was on the Twins for a season in 1988. He replied, "Oh, I was two, so no, I don't remember that." I set him on fire. Verdict: Not sufficiently remembered! Manrique is remembered solely for his glasses and that is a shame. He was a useful back-up infielder who liked to suggestively autograph photos and very likely is a Timecop. He probably saved Ferris Bueller's girlfriend from some past future murder and then went on with his mall shopping. If nothing else, Manrique was a short-time Twins player with a big-time heart. I made that last part up, but doesn't it make you feel better about him? If you enjoyed this trip down Twins memory lane, why not check out the archives for more Forgotten Twins? You can just click here, you don't have to move or anything. If you'd like, make a request and I'll run him through my database. Brad Swanson is the inventor of Tae Bo. He forgot how much he enjoyed writing by-lines. He is a frequent contributor to that group of people who are in your way at the grocery store.
  5. If you've been reading my blog for the past few weeks, you are well aware that I have recently become obsessed with Eduardo Escobar. Not in a weird way. I just want to see more of him. Not in a weird way. I think he deserves more playing time. Last year, Escobar received just 179 plate appearances, but also had one of the most memorable plate appearances of the season, when he laced a walk-off double to give the Twins their first win of the 2013 season. That 1/179 exciting moments ratio led the team, I'm quite certain. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Anyway, I think Escobar has something. I see it when I watch him. He just has an "it" factor that makes me want to look even closer. Not in a weird way. I think it's worth finding out if I am correct also. Therefore, I am starting a campaign called "The Eddie 400," at least until someone finds evidence that he hates being called "Eddie." I made a logo and at the end I'll explain how you can also support this important promotion. http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-azXCFfvNMkQ/Usm7KeSBHyI/AAAAAAAABJY/8SYkgOIX-5E/s1600/Eddie400.jpg Before that, I want to make sure this is truly something we all believe in. Therefore, I have come up with a handful of valid reasons to give Eduardo Escobar 400 plate appearances in 2014. Read on! He's a switch hitter This guy can bat right-handed and left-handed! How impressive is that! Some guys on this team can barely bat with their dominant hand, much less both. In fact, last year he barely had a platoon split. He hit roughly .270/.333/.430 from both sides of the plate. Most of his damage was done at AAA, but he didn't get regular playing time in the majors, which is totally not his fault. DON'T LOOK AT HIS MLB SPLITS. He's always smiling http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-0rBK-1_S0v0/Usm7Smun6vI/AAAAAAAABJg/FgsOxgG1phA/s320/EddieHappy.jpg See, look at that winning smile! He has an infectious personality, that is apparent. Oh, you're not convinced with one picture. Well, here's a photo collage I made: http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-cTbSA2aNMuo/Usm7ZK7-8kI/AAAAAAAABJo/_Le870ecQ9I/s320/escobarsmilecity.png See, winning smile. It's prevalent. This guy will make the clubhouse happier. A happy clubhouse is a healthy clubhouse. He won't be that happy playing once a week. No one would be. He certainly can't infuse the clubhouse with smiles from Rochester. He has defensive versatility It's not just that Escobar is good at defense; he also plays a lot of positions. He's primarily a shortstop, but he can handle second and third too. He can even serve as an emergency catcher! I'm pretty sure he could play in the outfield too. What versatility! Brian Dozier is the second baseman, but even he needs a day off here and there. When he does, BAM!, enter Escobar. Say 10 games. That's 40ish PAs; we're 10% to 400. Trevor Plouffe needs days off too and he might need some DH time to boot. BAM!, more Escobar. Say 25-30 games, 100 PA, and we're nearly halfway there. Hello Pedro Florimon. I like you. I even wrote about why I like you before last season. Read it! That said, hitting is not your strength and your fielding can be inconsistent. BAM! MORE ESCOBAR!! If they simply split roughly 125 games, Escobar would get 60ish, with 200 or so PA and we'd be on the verge of 400 plate appearances. See, Escobar's defensive versatility practically screams for more PT. He's vibrant I can feel his charisma from my couch. When he's on the field, he's vibrant. When he's in the dugout, he shines. When he's in the clubhouse, he...well I don't know because I'm not allowed. When he's in Rochester, he's sad. Just look at his face, even after being named Player of the Week: http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-DZhyAH4AN6Q/Usm7fh-Jm_I/AAAAAAAABJw/KjDMvsvctmA/s320/escobarplayerofweek.jpg Scroll up and look at the collage again. LOOK AT IT! Which Escobar do you want? He's young Escobar will be 25 next season. He's two full years younger than Pedro Florimon. I don't want this to become an indictment of Florimon, but we all know his shortcomings. It's possible Escobar has similar shortcomings, but he's two years younger so it's at least a bit more likely that he can develop and overcome those shortcomings. You are what you are at 27; the world is your oyster at 25. Think about it. He's approaching arbitration eligibility Tick Tock. That's Escobar's free agency clock and it is ticking away dangerously. He's out of options and if he spends the entire year on the major league roster, he'll be right on the edge of being a Super-2 arbitration case. If the Twins don't figure out what they have in Escobar this season, they'll never know. I'm not sure they can deal with that kind of regret. Regret is a powerful emotion. He's popular and beloved I found an article from Mike Berardino last March that has some really great Escobar-related quotes. I'll just share them without comment. Twins General Manager Terry Ryan: "He's a pretty good baseball player, it looks like to me," Ryan said. "He's got some energy. He can steal a base. He's all right." Former Twins reliever Luis Perdomo: "I don't like snakes, but I like Escobar," Perdomo says. "He's a pretty good guy, a funny guy. He's happy all the time, never angry." Also, we find out in that article that Escobar is close friends with the Guillen family. BONUS POINTS! Here are some quotes from another article, this one from ESPN, after Escobar was traded to the Twins: White Sox DH Adam Dunn: “He’s such a good kid,” Adam Dunn said. “He’s such a good part of this team. He keeps everybody loose and we really enjoyed having him. He’s a lot of fun. They’re going to really enjoy him over there.” White Sox OF Jordan Danks: “He’s definitely going to be missed,” Jordan Danks said. “When I first signed in ’08, he and I came up together so I’ve played with him pretty much at every level. He’s the same guy that I met whenever I first signed. He’ll be sorely missed.” White Sox Manager Robin Ventura: “I think it’s a little tough in here after a good win like this because Escobar’s a big part of what we’ve been doing,” Robin Ventura said. “It’s more than just numbers and how you play, it’s the attitude he brings. It’s a tough one team-wise. He’s kind of like a little brother or a son to most guys. The Twins love him too; remember the "C'mon" story? Here's the Berardino article and I'll just give you one Gardenhire quote for free: "I don't know what he says half the time, but I love him," Gardenhire said Sunday. "He just entertains me. He's one of the happiest guys I've ever seen at the ballpark. Always smiling, always laughing." Everyone loves this guy, now let's let him play some baseball! Final quote, from the first article and from Escobar himself: "When you're happy, be happy. You get a base hit in the game, be happy. I'm always happy playing." I love him. Finally, why not? Really, what do the Twins have to lose? Games? They've done that already. Plenty. Why not see what they have in the guy they traded Francisco Liriano for? Escobar is billed as a solid, if not better defender. Florimon is a great defender, but could Escobar be better? One thing I know for certain, Escobar is just as likely to post a 68 wRC+ as Florimon did last year. Plus, he's two years younger, has a winning smile, is loved by his teammates and manager and I already made the logo. There's simply no downside here. The 2014 Twins aren't making the playoffs, so why not see what they have in Escobar? It's a shark move. The New Terry Ryan who wears a leather jacket makes shark moves. It just makes sense. Now that you are 100% convinced, you can show your support for "The Eddie 400" in a number of ways: Get the logo tattooed on your forehead. If not your forehead, your stomach, but then you have to keep your stomach exposed at all times. Create leaflets and hand them out to friends, co-workers, and anyone who looks angry on the streets. Fly to Venezuela and inform his hometown; gather their support. Change your name to "Eduardo Escobar." Purchase business cards. If those ideas don't suit you, perhaps you could just download the logo from above and make it your Twitter or Facebook or whatever avatar? Tell your friends about Eddie. Post on the Twins' Facebook wall. Tweet at Dave St. Peter. Do everything humanly possible to create awareness of this important campaign. Together, we can ensure that Eduardo Escobar gets 400 plate appearances in 2014. I can't do this alone. I need you. Not in a weird way. Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed!
  6. Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! If you've been reading my blog for the past few weeks, you are well aware that I have recently become obsessed with Eduardo Escobar. Not in a weird way. I just want to see more of him. Not in a weird way. I think he deserves more playing time. Last year, Escobar received just 179 plate appearances, but also had one of the most memorable plate appearances of the season, when he laced a walk-off double to give the Twins their first win of the 2013 season. That 1/179 exciting moments ratio led the team, I'm quite certain. Anyway, I think Escobar has something. I see it when I watch him. He just has an "it" factor that makes me want to look even closer. Not in a weird way. I think it's worth finding out if I am correct also. Therefore, I am starting a campaign called "The Eddie 400," at least until someone finds evidence that he hates being called "Eddie." I made a logo and at the end, I'll explain how you can also support this important promotion. http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-azXCFfvNMkQ/Usm7KeSBHyI/AAAAAAAABJY/8SYkgOIX-5E/s1600/Eddie400.jpg Before that, I want to make sure this is truly something that we all believe in. Therefore, I have come up with a handful of valid reasons to give Eduardo Escobar 400 plate appearances in 2014. Read on! He's a switch hitter This guy can bat right-handed and left-handed! How impressive is that! Some guys on this team can barely bat with their dominant hand, much less both. In fact, last year he barely had a platoon split. He hit roughly .270/.333/.430 from both sides of the plate. Most of his damage was done at AAA, but he didn't get regular playing time in the Majors, which is totally not his fault. DON'T LOOK AT HIS MLB SPLITS. He's always smiling http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-0rBK-1_S0v0/Usm7Smun6vI/AAAAAAAABJg/FgsOxgG1phA/s320/EddieHappy.jpg See, look at that winning smile! He has an infectious personality, that is apparent. Oh, you're not convinced with one picture. Well, here's a photo collage I made: http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-cTbSA2aNMuo/Usm7ZK7-8kI/AAAAAAAABJo/_Le870ecQ9I/s320/escobarsmilecity.png See, winning smile. It's prevalent. This guy will make the clubhouse happier. A happy clubhouse is a healthy clubhouse. He won't be that happy playing once a week. No one would be. He certainly can't infuse the clubhouse with smiles from Rochester. He has defensive versatility It's not just that Escobar is good at defense, he also plays a lot of positions. He's primarily a shortstop, but he can handle second and third too. He can even serve as an emergency catcher! I'm pretty sure he could play in the outfield too. What versatility! Brian Dozier is the second baseman, but even he needs a day off here and there. When he does, BAM, enter Escobar. Say 10 games. That's 40ish PAs; we're 10% to 400. Trevor Plouffe needs days off too and he might need some DH time to boot. BAM, more Escobar. Say 25-30 games, 100 PA, and we're nearly halfway there. Hello Pedro Florimon. I like you. I even wrote about why I like you before last season. Read it! That said, hitting is not your strength and your fielding can be inconsistent. BAM MORE ESCOBAR!! If they simply split roughly 125 games, Escobar would get 60ish, with 200 or so PA and we'd be on the verge of 400 plate appearances. See, Escobar's defensive versatility practically screams for more PT. He's vibrant I can feel his charisma from my couch. When he's on the field, he's vibrant. When he's in the dugout, he shines. When he's in the clubhouse, he...well I don't know because I'm not allowed. When he's in Rochester, he's sad. Just look at his face, even after being named player of the week: http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-DZhyAH4AN6Q/Usm7fh-Jm_I/AAAAAAAABJw/KjDMvsvctmA/s320/escobarplayerofweek.jpg Scroll up and look at the collage again. LOOK AT IT! Which Escobar do you want? He's young Escobar will be 25 next season. He's two full years younger than Pedro Florimon. I don't want this to become an indictment of Florimon, but we all know his shortcomings. It's possible that Escobar has similar shortcomings, but he's two years younger so it's at least a bit more likely that he can develop and overcome those shortcomings. You are what you are at 27; the World is your oyster at 25. Think about it. He's arbitration eligible in 2015 Tick Tock. That's Escobar's free agency clock and it is ticking away dangerously. Escobar has now been on an MLB roster in 3 different years. He has played 125 games. He's out of options and approaching arbitration. If the Twins don't figure out what they have in Escobar this season, they'll never know. I'm not sure they can deal with that kind of regret. Regret is a powerful emotion. He's popular and beloved I found an article from Mike Berardino last March that has some really great Escobar-related quotes. I'll just share them without comment. Twins General Manager Terry Ryan: "He's a pretty good baseball player, it looks like to me," Ryan said. "He's got some energy. He can steal a base. He's all right." Former Twins reliever Luis Perdomo: "I don't like snakes, but I like Escobar," Perdomo says. "He's a pretty good guy, a funny guy. He's happy all the time, never angry." Also, we find out in that article that Escobar is close friends with the Guillen family. BONUS POINTS! Here are some quotes from another article, this one from ESPN, after Escobar was traded to the Twins: White Sox DH Adam Dunn: “He’s such a good kid,” Adam Dunn said. “He’s such a good part of this team. He keeps everybody loose and we really enjoyed having him. He’s a lot of fun. They’re going to really enjoy him over there.” White Sox OF Jordan Danks: “He’s definitely going to be missed,” Jordan Danks said. “When I first signed in ’08, he and I came up together so I’ve played with him pretty much at every level. He’s the same guy that I met whenever I first signed. He’ll be sorely missed.” White Sox Manager Robin Ventura: “I think it’s a little tough in here after a good win like this because Escobar’s a big part of what we’ve been doing,” Robin Ventura said. “It’s more than just numbers and how you play, it’s the attitude he brings. It’s a tough one team-wise. He’s kind of like a little brother or a son to most guys. The Twins love him too, remember the "C'mon" story? Here's the Berardino article and I'll just give you one Gardenhire quote for free: "I don't know what he says half the time, but I love him," Gardenhire said Sunday. "He just entertains me. He's one of the happiest guys I've ever seen at the ballpark. Always smiling, always laughing." Everyone loves this guy, now let's let him play some baseball! Final quote, from the first article and from Escobar himself: "When you're happy, be happy. You get a base hit in the game, be happy. I'm always happy playing." I love him. Finally, why not? Really, what do the Twins have to lose? Games? They've done that already. Plenty. Why not see what they have in the guy they traded Francisco Liriano for? Escobar is billed as a solid, if not better defender. Florimon is a great defender, but could Escobar be better? One thing I know for certain, Escobar is just as likely to post a 68 wRC+ as Florimon did last year. Plus, he's two years younger, has a winning smile, is loved by his teammates and manager, and I already made the logo. There's simply no downside here. The 2014 Twins aren't making the playoffs, so why not see what they have in Escobar? It's a shark move. The New Terry Ryan that wears a leather jacket makes shark moves. It just makes sense. Now that you are 100% convinced, you can show your support for "The Eddie 400" in a number of ways. Get the logo tattooed on your forehead. If not your forehead, your stomach, but then you have to keep your stomach exposed at all times. Create leaflets and hand them out to friends, co-workers, and anyone who looks angry on the streets. Fly to Venezuela and inform his hometown; gather their support. Change your name to "Eduardo Escobar." Purchase business cards. If those ideas don't suit you, perhaps you could just download the logo from above and make it your Twitter or Facebook or whatever avatar? Tell your friends about Eddie. Post on the Twins' Facebook wall. Tweet at Dave St. Peter. Do everything humanly possible to create awareness of this important campaign. Together, we can ensure that Eduardo Escobar gets 400 plate appearances in 2014. I can't do this alone. I need you. Not in a weird way.
  7. False, J.D. Drew is retired. I'm warming to Stephen Drew though. It would be nice to have that position figured out for the next three years. Drew misses time often, but the Twins have Eduardo Escobar to back him up. That 2nd round pick will likely be nothing, so I guess there's nothing holding me back.
  8. It's so hard for me to shake just how brutal Drew was at the plate during the World Series. I'm hesitant to give up that pick, but Drew is probably worth it. Drew is one of those trendy new fly ball hitters too. Excellent analysis!
  9. My one resolution for 2014 is to answer more fake questions. If someone (me) is going to go to the trouble of asking a question, the least I can do is answer it. In addition, I'm going to answer the really tough questions that others are too scared to tackle. In fact, 2014 is the year of answering the tough questions. I won't be afraid of what the answers reveal. I intend to get to know myself better through this exercise. It's going to be quite cathartic and important, really. Most important, we need to get off on the right foot with a really important question. What type of food is each Twins player? ~ Brad S., St. Paul, MN We're off! I'll flesh this out in more detail in the future. I might even devote a full post to it and possibly create some stupid photoshops. That said, I'll provide some of the easier answers: Joe Mauer: Wonder Bread. Kind of goes without saying. Brian Dozier: Penne Arrabiata. Spicy, good-looking, complex, yet traditional and non-threatening. Glen Perkins: Tremendous Twelve. Just outstanding, lots of variety, affordable, very filling. Mike Pelfrey: Burnt Popcorn. Some people actually like it; the result of taking too much time. Sam Deduno: McRib. Bounces between available and not available, saucy, incites excitement, makes some people crazy, not really very good. Hi-yo. What do you think the lineup will look like at the beginning of next season? How about 2015? Thanks, I'm a huge fan. ~ Brad S., St. Paul, MN That's a very excellent and timely question. It's possible that the Twins could still add one more position player who could weasel his way into the starting lineup. Of course, I'm not sure the Opening Day lineup will change much, as our current skipper tends to err on the side of sentimentality/tradition. Therefore, here is what I expect in 2014: Alex Presley, CF Brian Dozier, 2B Joe Mauer, 1B (still looks weird) Josh Willingham, LF Oswaldo Arcia, RF Trevor Plouffe, 3B Josmil Pinto, DH Kurt Suzuki, C Pedro Florimon, SS Nothing shocking, and I could see Plouffe hitting ahead of Arcia for those sentimental reasons. Pinto and Suzuki are in the lineup because I think the Twins like Pinto's bat, but won't trust his defense initially. Florimon's there, but I don't think he'll be there for long (more on that later). Presley should hold off Aaron Hicks for a couple months, but I expect Hicks to tear up AAA because I am very irrational about him. As for 2015, I foresee a couple of changes: Aaron Hicks, CF Brian Dozier, 2B Joe Mauer, 1B Oswaldo Arcia, LF Miguel Sano, 3B Josmil Pinto, C Trevor Plouffe, DH Alex Presley, RF Eduardo Escobar, SS Obviously, I prefer Escobar to Florimon, Hicks to Presley and Sano to Plouffe. Unless the Twins sign some free agents, these are the guys who should be on the Opening Day roster in 2015. I believe Sano will be ready but Byron Buxton will be a midseason entry. Sano is a better defender than Plouffe and Hicks has better range than Presley (Hicks has a vastly superior RF arm too, but range > arm). If Eddie Rosario plays like gangbusters upon return from his suspension (and plays in the outfield), he could supplant Presley, but I don't see that happening. Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! Which player do you want to see more of in '14? ~ Brad S., St. Paul, MN Take a look at my starting shortstop in 2015. I want to see much more of Eduardo Escobar next season. In fact, I'm starting "The Eddie 400" and I won't stop writing/talking about it until it is apparent that Escobar has no chance of getting 400 at-bats. I'm not really sure that he's good, but I am quite certain he can hit at least as well as Pedro Florimon. Plus, he's two years younger and might be an even better defender. Even if the Twins are happy with Florimon, I'd love to see Escobar get some starts at 3rd and enhance the team defense. http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-qRLvRxtVGkQ/UsRbLXXnkjI/AAAAAAAABIM/3jIinF24APY/s1600/Eddie400.jpg Next week, I plan to fully outline "The Eddie 400." I'll outline all of the reasons why I'm smitten with Mr. Escobar. I just really hope that someone calls him "Eddie" or this whole thing is quite loony. There are rumors that the Twins are interested in Johan Santana. How does that make you feel? ~ Brad S., St. Paul, MN http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-t1cintWWhpk/UsRbV8m-y9I/AAAAAAAABIU/ipcUiuYdfbs/s320/Ron-Swanson-Dance.gif Don't ruin my New Year, Twins. Make this happen. What is the core of the Twins team? ~ Brad S., St. Paul, MN The core has to contain the players who will lead the team to glory. Guys like Brian Dozier and Glen Perkins are great and nice and super, but they aren't really core players. Dozier is good, but not great. Perkins is great, but fills a role that can be filled much more easily than other roles. So, the Twins core is Joe Mauer, Oswaldo Arcia, Miguel Sano, Bryon Buxton and Alex Meyer. Obviously, only two of those players have MLB experience. There is a lot riding on Buxton, Sano and Meyer. If all three reach their ceilings, the Twins will have an insane core. If two of three pan out, the core will still be great. Perish the thought, but if all three crap out, well...let's just not think that way. That core is excellent, but one more pitcher would be nice. I'm actively wooing Masahiro Tanaka in my weekly POWER RANKINGS. Check out my Ranking's here. Tanaka would be a nice sixth in that core. What's your Pelfrey problem? ~ Brad S., St. Paul, MN Ah, nothing really. He seems very nice and he'll be great at the back of the rotation. Calling him burnt popcorn will be my final jab at Pelfrey. At least until he starts pitching. Then, I might have to start in on him, just to pass the time between pitches. Have a great weekend, everyone!
  10. Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! My one resolution for 2014 is to answer more fake questions. If someone (me) is going to go to the trouble of asking a question, the least I can do is answer it. In addition, I'm going to answer the really tough questions that others are too scared to tackle. In fact, 2014 is the year of answering the tough questions. I won't be afraid of what the answers reveal. I intend to get to know myself better through this exercise. It's going to be quite cathartic and important, really. Most importantly, we need to get off on the right foot with a really important question. What type of food is each Twins player? ~ Brad S., St. Paul, MN We're off! I'll flesh this out in more detail in the future. I might even devote a full post to it and possibly create some stupid photoshops. That said, I'll provide some of the easier answers: Joe Mauer: Wonder Bread. Kind of goes without saying. Brian Dozier: Penne Arrabiata. Spicy, good-looking, complex, yet traditional and non-threatening. Glen Perkins: Tremendous Twelve. Just outstanding, lots of variety, affordable, very filling. Mike Pelfrey: Burnt Popcorn. Some people actually like it; the result of taking too much time. Sam Deduno: McRib. Bounces between available and not available, saucy, incites excitement, makes some people crazy, not really very good. Hi-yo. What do you think the lineup will look like at the beginning of next season? How about 2015? Thanks, I'm a huge man. ~ Brad S., St. Paul, MN That's a very excellent and timely question. It's possible that the Twins could still add one more position player who could weasel his way into the starting lineup. Of course, I'm not sure the Opening Day lineup will change much, as our current skipper tends to err on the side of sentimentality/tradition. Therefore, here is what I expect in 2014: Alex Presley, CF Brian Dozier, 2B Joe Mauer, 1B (still looks weird) Josh Willingham, LF Oswaldo Arcia, RF Trevor Plouffe, 3B Josmil Pinto, DH Kurt Suzuki, C Pedro Florimon, SS Nothing shocking, and I could see Plouffe hitting ahead of Arcia for those sentimental reasons. Pinto and Suzuki are in the lineup because I think the Twins like Pinto's bat, but won't trust his defense initially. Florimon's there, but I don't think he'll be there for long (more on that later). Presley should hold off Aaron Hicks for a couple months, but I expect Hicks to tear up AAA because I am very irrational about him. As for 2015, I foresee a couple of changes: Aaron Hicks, CF Brian Dozier, 2B Joe Mauer, 1B Oswaldo Arcia, LF Miguel Sano, 3B Josmil Pinto, C Trevor Plouffe, DH Alex Presley, RF Eduardo Escobar, SS Obviously, I prefer Escobar to Florimon, Hicks to Presley and Sano to Plouffe. Unless the Twins sign some free agents, these are the guys who should be on the Opening Day roster in 2015. I believe Sano will be ready but Byron Buxton will be a midseason entry. Sano is a better defender than Plouffe and Hicks has better range than Presley (Hicks has a vastly superior RF arm too, but range > arm). If Eddie Rosario plays like gangbusters upon return from his suspension (and plays in the outfield), he could supplant Presley, but I don't see that happening. Which player do you want to see more of in '14? ~ Brad S., St. Paul, MN Take a look at my starting shortstop in 2015. I want to see much more of Eduardo Escobar next season. In fact, I'm starting "The Eddie 400" and I won't stop writing/talking about it until it is apparent that Escobar has no chance of getting 400 at bats. I would love to see Escobar get 400 at bats next season. I'm not really sure that he's good, but I am quite certain that he can hit at least as well as Pedro Florimon. Plus, he's two years younger and might be an even better defender. Even if the Twins are happy with Florimon, I'd love to see Escobar get some starts at 3rd and enhance the team defense. http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-qRLvRxtVGkQ/UsRbLXXnkjI/AAAAAAAABIM/3jIinF24APY/s1600/Eddie400.jpg Next week, I plan to fully outline "The Eddie 400." I'll outline all of the reasons why I'm smitten with Mr. Escobar. I just really hope that someone calls him "Eddie" or this whole thing is quite loony. There are rumors that the Twins are interested in Johan Santana. How does that make you feel? ~ Brad S., St. Paul, MN http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-t1cintWWhpk/UsRbV8m-y9I/AAAAAAAABIU/ipcUiuYdfbs/s320/Ron-Swanson-Dance.gif Don't ruin my New Year, Twins. Make this happen. What is the core of the Twins team? ~ Brad S., St. Paul, MN The core has to contain the players who will lead the team to glory. Guys like Brian Dozier and Glen Perkins are great and nice and super, but they aren't really core players. Dozier is good, but not great. Perkins is great, but fills a role that can be filled much more easily than other roles. So, the Twins core is Joe Mauer, Oswaldo Arcia, Miguel Sano, Bryon Buxton and Alex Meyer. Obviously, only two of those players have MLB experience. There is a lot riding on Buxton, Sano and Meyer. If all three reach their ceilings, the Twins will have an insane core. If two of three pan out, the core will still be great. Perish the thought, but if all three crap out, well...let's just not think that way. That core is excellent, but one more pitcher would be nice. I'm actively wooing Masahiro Tanaka in my weekly POWER RANKINGS. Check out my Rankin's here. Tanaka would be a nice sixth in that core. What's your Pelfrey problem? ~ Brad S., St. Paul, MN Ah, nothing really. He seems very nice and he'll be great at the back of the rotation. Calling him burnt popcorn will be my final jab at Pelfrey. At least until he starts pitching. Then, I might have to start in on him, just to pass the time between pitches. Have a great weekend, everyone!
  11. My overall feeling about the infield is that I would like to see more of Eduardo Escobar in 2014. They may find out that he isn't worth playing, but that would be good information to have going into 2015.
  12. I completely agree that Polanco is a much better prospect than Santana, but I'm not sure he reaches the Majors by 2015. That would require him to move three levels in less than two seasons and the Twins just typically aren't that aggressive. I could see Santana as a utility guy by 2015, just because he can play multiple positions and even if the batting average is empty, someone is going to look at it and think he deserves a shot. Regarding Plouffe, I completely agree. I don't actually think he is versatile because he can't play any one position well. However, I am certain that the Twins like the idea of having a guy who can play third and a corner outfield position, with second base being an option in a huge pinch. I'm not sure he'd be average at any of those positions, but he can physically play each.
  13. Over the last week or so, I've been investigating the Twins' 40-man roster to try to determine who will contribute to the next good Twins team. I've reached the end of this short journey and will cover the infielders today. However, I did complete this activity in four parts, so if you missed the first three, you can find them here: [B][URL="http://smartpitcher.blogspot.com/2013/12/minnesota-twins-40-man-roster-analysis.html"]Starting Pitchers[/URL][/B] [B][URL="http://smartpitcher.blogspot.com/2013/12/minnesota-twins-40-man-roster-analysis_19.html"]Relief Pitchers[/URL][/B] [B][URL="http://smartpitcher.blogspot.com/2013/12/minnesota-twins-40-man-roster-analysis_26.html"]Catchers/Outfielders[/URL][/B] Now that we have hyperlinks out of the way, we can look at the Twins' infielders, ordered from least likely to contribute to most likely to contribute in 2015 (that magical season I am forecasting). [B][B][URL="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=vargas001ken&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com"]Kennys Vargas[/URL][/B][/B] Infield is not the strength of the Twins' 40-man roster. Vargas is known for his strength. Paradox? Nope, just something I thought sounded cool. Vargas was added to the roster to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. Vargas spent his 2013 season with High-A Fort Myers and he showed off his massive power, hitting 19 home runs and slugging .468. Unless Vargas absolutely crushes AA in 2014, I don't see how he plays for the Twins in 2015. Perhaps 2016? [B][B][URL="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=polanc001jor&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com"]Jorge Polanco[/URL][/B][/B] Compared to Vargas, Polanco is ever so slightly more likely to be playing for the Twins in 2015, mostly because he could man a middle infield position and possibly fill a utility role. I don't think that scenario plays out though. Polanco could be the Twins' second baseman of the future, but I'd say that future is more than two years away and his career won't be starting in 2015 at the age of 21 or 22. [B][B][URL="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/colabch01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com"]Chris Colabello[/URL][/B][/B] Well, the Twins tried to sell him to Korea, so that's probably not a great sign for his long-term future with the organization. Colabello was a really nice story in 2013, going from Independent Ball to AAA legend to the Majors. He struggled mightily against MLB pitching, striking out in nearly a third of his plate appearances and posting a shoddy .194/.287/.344 line. Colabello has massive right-handed power, which should play well at Target Field. However, he doesn't have pull power and the home runs don't really fly out of the park to center and right unless they're hit by [B][URL="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/thomeji01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com"]Jim Thome[/URL][/B]. Plus, [B][URL="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mauerjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com"]Joe Mauer[/URL][/B] now occupies the only position Colabello can effectively play. Unless Colabello adjusts to his field and to MLB pitching, he won't be much more than a bench bat and I'm not sure it will be the Twins' bench by 2015. [B][B][URL="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=santan001dan&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com"]Danny Santana[/URL][/B][/B] Santana could be on the active roster in 2015. He'll be 24 and will have had AA and probably AAA experience. He might even get a 2014 September call-up if all goes well. Santana had a quietly effective offensive season with New Britain in 2013. He hit .297/.333/.386 with 22 doubles, 10 triples and 30 stolen bases. He also made 32 errors at short, and I can't remember a time when the Twins have consistently used a shortstop who was that error-prone. That said, Santana reportedly has the skills for short and could provide better offense than [B][URL="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/floripe01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com"]Pedro Florimon[/URL][/B] or [B][URL="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/escobed01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com"]Eduardo Escobar[/URL][/B] by 2015. I think he'll be on the team, but I'm not sure he'll be starting then. [B]Pedro Florimon[/B] The Twins have given Florimon 596 plate appearances over the past two seasons, about 595 more than I figured he would receive. That said, Florimon has been a good defender at short and provided some speed when he actually hit the ball. He wasn't a complete disaster, posting a 70 OPS+. By WAR, he was one of the Twins' three best players in the first half. He was pretty brutal in the second half and he might not be better than other options on the roster (see below). He's 27 now and approaching arbitration. I imagine he'll be with the team in 2015, but I would wager he'll be a utility player by then. [B][B][URL="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/plouftr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com"]Trevor Plouffe[/URL][/B][/B] The Twins seem to value Plouffe's versatility. He's a third baseman, but he can play a corner outfield spot as well. I like versatility too, but I also like performance. If you take Plouffe's crazy June/July of 2012 out of the equation, he's a roughly 90 OPS+ third baseman with a nice (but somewhat inaccurate) arm and little range. He also cannot hit right-handed pitching, hitting .227/.284/.382 in his career. His best offensive tool (power) doesn't even apply against the much more common right sided pitching. With his shaky defense, I don't think the Twins can properly exploit his potential defensive versatility. In fact, I'd prefer to see more of another young player at third in 2014... [B]Eduardo Escobar[/B] Escobar might be a better option than Florimon and/or a decent platoon-mate for Plouffe. I look at his numbers next to Florimon's numbers and I see very similar players. Low contact, a few walks, good speed, but not on-base enough to utilize it, good glove and the ability to play a couple positions. Escobar is two years younger and might be a better defender. Even if he can't unseat Florimon for the shortstop job, he should provide enough value as a guy who can play all infield position to keep his job while cheap. If Plouffe doesn't improve offensively, I'd give Escobar some starts at third as well. At least Escobar will play great defense. Escobar will be cheap in 2015, even though he'll be arbitration-eligible. I hope he gets a longer look; I like him. [B][B][URL="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/doziebr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com"]Brian Dozier[/URL][/B][/B] Dozier is probably one of three sure bets for 2015, with [B][URL="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/arciaos01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com"]Oswaldo Arcia[/URL][/B] and the new first baseman. In 2013, Dozier reclaimed his lost plate discipline, but also traded a few strikeouts for more power. He hit more fly balls and finished 2013 with 18 home runs. His defense was much better at second than at short and he finished the season with 2.8 fWAR, good for 8th among all qualifying MLB second basemen. However, Dozier was very up and down in 2013, and this chart proves it: [TABLE="class: grid, width: 500"] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD]OPS+[/TD] [TD]K%[/TD] [TD]BB%[/TD] [TD]BB/K[/TD] [TD]BABIP[/TD] [TD]LD%[/TD] [TD]GB%[/TD] [TD]FB%[/TD] [TD]HR[/TD] [TD]HR/FB[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]April[/TD] [TD]71[/TD] [TD]17.7[/TD] [TD]7.6[/TD] [TD]0.43[/TD] [TD]0.280[/TD] [TD]22.8[/TD] [TD]36.8[/TD] [TD]40.4[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]May[/TD] [TD]42[/TD] [TD]23.6[/TD] [TD]3.4[/TD] [TD]0.14[/TD] [TD]0.276[/TD] [TD]14.5[/TD] [TD]51.6[/TD] [TD]33.9[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]9.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]June[/TD] [TD]152[/TD] [TD]15.4[/TD] [TD]16.5[/TD] [TD]1.07[/TD] [TD]0.364[/TD] [TD]20.0[/TD] [TD]36.7[/TD] [TD]43.3[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]19.2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]July[/TD] [TD]101[/TD] [TD]17.1[/TD] [TD]5.7[/TD] [TD]0.33[/TD] [TD]0.252[/TD] [TD]25.0[/TD] [TD]32.9[/TD] [TD]42.1[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]6.3[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]August[/TD] [TD]139[/TD] [TD]19.9[/TD] [TD]7.8[/TD] [TD]0.39[/TD] [TD]0.347[/TD] [TD]24.8[/TD] [TD]30.7[/TD] [TD]44.6[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]13.3[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sept/Oct[/TD] [TD]93[/TD] [TD]21.2[/TD] [TD]8.5[/TD] [TD]0.40[/TD] [TD]0.255[/TD] [TD]15.9[/TD] [TD]42.7[/TD] [TD]41.5[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]8.8[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Dozier's best month appears to have been June, when he started his breakout. He did some things really well in June, including striking out at the lowest rate he posted in any month and nearly doubling his season walk rate. He also had a really high .364 BABIP and an equally high 19.2 home run to fly ball ratio. I actually like what I see in August a little more. He had less luck with fly balls going over the fence and a slightly lower BABIP. He also walked at a rate more in line with his season average, which seems a lot more sustainable than a giant one-month spike. The plate discipline he showed in every month other than May should keep his performance at the level we grew accustomed to from June on. His home run total might have been a bit of a fluke though. I'd guess he'd settle more in the 10-15 range going forward, which is still very valuable at second base. Even in his best months, he never hit above .260. However, if he can walk about 8-10% of the time and provide a little pop, he could settle in around .250/.320/.430, which would be great and pretty similar to his overall numbers in the second half of 2013. He won't be arbitration eligible until 2016, so he'll definitely be around in 2015. Monthly samples are pretty small, so this is likely all pretty futile. I'm just going to predict 45 home runs and be done with it. [B]Joe Mauer[/B] I could be all sensational, say that Mauer is cooked and that he won't provide any value as a first baseman, but I wouldn't believe it. Mauer is an excellent hitter and that won't change at a different position. Mauer may not be a traditional number 3 hitter, but batting order is largely overrated anyway. Mauer makes outs at one of the lowest rates in the Majors today. Avoiding outs helps the team win and there's absolutely no reason to think that Mauer will lose that skill anytime soon. He's a lock. There we have it, an entire tour of the Twins' 40-man roster. The Twins have some really great pieces already on the roster. They will add a few next off-season and add a few from their own farm system. Also, some will come out of nowhere, surprising everyone with their contributions. I fully expect the 2015 Twins to be good. How good depends a lot on the 40 men who occupy the Twins' roster. Thanks for reading, everyone! [I]Originally posted at [URL="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jotdog"][B]Kevin Slowey was Framed![/B][/URL][/I] View full article
  14. Over the last week or so, I've been investigating the Twins' 40-man roster to try to determine who will contribute to the next good Twins team. I've reached the end of this short journey and will cover the infielders today. However, I did complete this activity in four parts, so if you missed the first three, you can find them here: Starting Pitchers Relief Pitchers Catchers/Outfielders Now that we have hyperlinks out of the way, we can look at the Twins' infielders, ordered from least likely to contribute to most likely to contribute in 2015 (that magical season I am forecasting). Kennys Vargas Infield is not the strength of the Twins' 40-man roster. Vargas is known for his strength. Paradox? Nope, just something I thought sounded cool. Vargas was added to the roster to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. Vargas spent his 2013 season with High-A Fort Myers and he showed off his massive power, hitting 19 home runs and slugging .468. Unless Vargas absolutely crushes AA in 2014, I don't see how he plays for the Twins in 2015. Perhaps 2016? Jorge Polanco Compared to Vargas, Polanco is ever so slightly more likely to be playing for the Twins in 2015, mostly because he could man a middle infield position and possibly fill a utility role. I don't think that scenario plays out though. Polanco could be the Twins' second baseman of the future, but I'd say that future is more than two years away and his career won't be starting in 2015 at the age of 21 or 22. Chris Colabello Well, the Twins tried to sell him to Korea, so that's probably not a great sign for his long-term future with the organization. Colabello was a really nice story in 2013, going from Independent Ball to AAA legend to the Majors. He struggled mightily against MLB pitching, striking out in nearly a third of his plate appearances and posting a shoddy .194/.287/.344 line. Colabello has massive right-handed power, which should play well at Target Field. However, he doesn't have pull power and the home runs don't really fly out of the park to center and right unless they're hit by Jim Thome. Plus, Joe Mauer now occupies the only position Colabello can effectively play. Unless Colabello adjusts to his field and to MLB pitching, he won't be much more than a bench bat and I'm not sure it will be the Twins' bench by 2015. Danny Santana Santana could be on the active roster in 2015. He'll be 24 and will have had AA and probably AAA experience. He might even get a 2014 September call-up if all goes well. Santana had a quietly effective offensive season with New Britain in 2013. He hit .297/.333/.386 with 22 doubles, 10 triples and 30 stolen bases. He also made 32 errors at short, and I can't remember a time when the Twins have consistently used a shortstop who was that error-prone. That said, Santana reportedly has the skills for short and could provide better offense than Pedro Florimon or Eduardo Escobar by 2015. I think he'll be on the team, but I'm not sure he'll be starting then. Pedro Florimon The Twins have given Florimon 596 plate appearances over the past two seasons, about 595 more than I figured he would receive. That said, Florimon has been a good defender at short and provided some speed when he actually hit the ball. He wasn't a complete disaster, posting a 70 OPS+. By WAR, he was one of the Twins' three best players in the first half. He was pretty brutal in the second half and he might not be better than other options on the roster (see below). He's 27 now and approaching arbitration. I imagine he'll be with the team in 2015, but I would wager he'll be a utility player by then. Trevor Plouffe The Twins seem to value Plouffe's versatility. He's a third baseman, but he can play a corner outfield spot as well. I like versatility too, but I also like performance. If you take Plouffe's crazy June/July of 2012 out of the equation, he's a roughly 90 OPS+ third baseman with a nice (but somewhat inaccurate) arm and little range. He also cannot hit right-handed pitching, hitting .227/.284/.382 in his career. His best offensive tool (power) doesn't even apply against the much more common right sided pitching. With his shaky defense, I don't think the Twins can properly exploit his potential defensive versatility. In fact, I'd prefer to see more of another young player at third in 2014... Eduardo Escobar Escobar might be a better option than Florimon and/or a decent platoon-mate for Plouffe. I look at his numbers next to Florimon's numbers and I see very similar players. Low contact, a few walks, good speed, but not on-base enough to utilize it, good glove and the ability to play a couple positions. Escobar is two years younger and might be a better defender. Even if he can't unseat Florimon for the shortstop job, he should provide enough value as a guy who can play all infield position to keep his job while cheap. If Plouffe doesn't improve offensively, I'd give Escobar some starts at third as well. At least Escobar will play great defense. Escobar will be cheap in 2015, even though he'll be arbitration-eligible. I hope he gets a longer look; I like him. Brian Dozier Dozier is probably one of three sure bets for 2015, with Oswaldo Arcia and the new first baseman. In 2013, Dozier reclaimed his lost plate discipline, but also traded a few strikeouts for more power. He hit more fly balls and finished 2013 with 18 home runs. His defense was much better at second than at short and he finished the season with 2.8 fWAR, good for 8th among all qualifying MLB second basemen. However, Dozier was very up and down in 2013, and this chart proves it: [TABLE=class: grid, width: 500] [/TD][TD]OPS+ K% BB% BB/K BABIP LD% GB% FB% HR HR/FB April 71 17.7 7.6 0.43 0.280 22.8 36.8 40.4 0 0 May 42 23.6 3.4 0.14 0.276 14.5 51.6 33.9 2 9.5 June 152 15.4 16.5 1.07 0.364 20.0 36.7 43.3 5 19.2 July 101 17.1 5.7 0.33 0.252 25.0 32.9 42.1 2 6.3 August 139 19.9 7.8 0.39 0.347 24.8 30.7 44.6 6 13.3 Sept/Oct 93 21.2 8.5 0.40 0.255 15.9 42.7 41.5 3 8.8 [/TABLE] Dozier's best month appears to have been June, when he started his breakout. He did some things really well in June, including striking out at the lowest rate he posted in any month and nearly doubling his season walk rate. He also had a really high .364 BABIP and an equally high 19.2 home run to fly ball ratio. I actually like what I see in August a little more. He had less luck with fly balls going over the fence and a slightly lower BABIP. He also walked at a rate more in line with his season average, which seems a lot more sustainable than a giant one-month spike. The plate discipline he showed in every month other than May should keep his performance at the level we grew accustomed to from June on. His home run total might have been a bit of a fluke though. I'd guess he'd settle more in the 10-15 range going forward, which is still very valuable at second base. Even in his best months, he never hit above .260. However, if he can walk about 8-10% of the time and provide a little pop, he could settle in around .250/.320/.430, which would be great and pretty similar to his overall numbers in the second half of 2013. He won't be arbitration eligible until 2016, so he'll definitely be around in 2015. Monthly samples are pretty small, so this is likely all pretty futile. I'm just going to predict 45 home runs and be done with it. Joe Mauer I could be all sensational, say that Mauer is cooked and that he won't provide any value as a first baseman, but I wouldn't believe it. Mauer is an excellent hitter and that won't change at a different position. Mauer may not be a traditional number 3 hitter, but batting order is largely overrated anyway. Mauer makes outs at one of the lowest rates in the Majors today. Avoiding outs helps the team win and there's absolutely no reason to think that Mauer will lose that skill anytime soon. He's a lock. There we have it, an entire tour of the Twins' 40-man roster. The Twins have some really great pieces already on the roster. They will add a few next off-season and add a few from their own farm system. Also, some will come out of nowhere, surprising everyone with their contributions. I fully expect the 2015 Twins to be good. How good depends a lot on the 40 men who occupy the Twins' roster. Thanks for reading, everyone! Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed!
  15. Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! Over the last week or so, I've been investigating the Twins' 40-man roster to try to determine who will contribute to the next good Twins team. I've reached the end of this short journey and will cover the infielders today. However, I did complete this activity in four parts, so if you missed the first three, you can find them here: Starting Pitchers Relief Pitchers Catchers/Outfielders Now that we have hyperlinks out of the way, we can look at the Twins' infielders, ordered from least likely to contribute to most likely to contribute in 2015 (that magical season I am forecasting). Kennys Vargas Infield is not the strength of the Twins' 40-man roster. Vargas is known for his strength. Paradox? Nope, just something I thought sounded cool. Vargas was added to the roster to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. Vargas spent his 2013 season with High-A Fort Myers and he showed off his massive power, hitting 19 home runs and slugging .468. Unless Vargas absolutely crushes AA in 2014, I don't see how he plays for the Twins in 2015. Perhaps 2016? Jorge Polanco Compared to Vargas, Polanco is ever so slightly more likely to be playing for the Twins in 2015, mostly because he could man a middle infield position and possibly fill a utility role. I don't think that scenario plays out though. Polanco could be the Twins' second baseman of the future, but I'd say that future is more than two years away and his career won't be starting in 2015 at the age of 21 or 22. Chris Colabello Well, the Twins tried to sell him to Korea, so that's probably not a great sign for his long-term future with the organization. Colabello was a really nice story in 2013, going from Independent Ball to AAA legend to the Majors. He struggled mightily against MLB pitching, striking out in nearly a third of his plate appearances and posting a shoddy .194/.287/.344 line. Colabello has massive right-handed power, which should play well at Target Field. However, he doesn't have pull power and the home runs don't really fly out of the park to center and right unless they're hit by Jim Thome. Plus, Joe Mauer now occupies the only position Colabello can effectively play. Unless Colabello adjusts to his field and to MLB pitching, he won't be much more than a bench bat and I'm not sure it will be the Twins' bench by 2015. Danny Santana Santana could be on the active roster in 2015. He'll be 24 and will have had AA and probably AAA experience. He might even get a 2014 September call-up if all goes well. Santana had a quietly effective offensive season with New Britain in 2013. He hit .297/.333/.386 with 22 doubles, 10 triples and 30 stolen bases. He also made 32 errors at short, and I can't remember a time when the Twins have consistently used a shortstop who was that error-prone. That said, Santana reportedly has the skills for short and could provide better offense than Pedro Florimon or Eduardo Escobar by 2015. I think he'll be on the team, but I'm not sure he'll be starting just yet. Pedro Florimon The Twins have given Florimon 596 plate appearances over the past two seasons, about 595 more than I figured he would receive. That said, Florimon has been a good defender at short and provided some speed when he actually hit the ball. He wasn't a complete disaster, posting a 70 OPS+. By WAR, he was one of the Twins' three best players in the first half. He was pretty brutal in the second half and he might not be better than other options on the roster (see below). He's 27 now and approaching arbitration. I imagine he'll be with the team in 2015, but I would wager that he'll be a utility player by then. Trevor Plouffe The Twins seem to value Plouffe's versatility. He's a third baseman, but he can play a corner outfield spot as well. I like versatility too, but I also like performance. If you take Plouffe's crazy June/July of 2012 out of the equation, he's a roughly 90 OPS+ third baseman with a nice (but somewhat inaccurate) arm and little range. He also cannot hit right-handed pitching, hitting .227/.284/.382 in his career. His best offensive tool (power) doesn't even apply against the much more common arm-side pitching. With his shaky defense, I don't think the Twins can properly exploit his potential defensive versatility. In fact, I'd prefer to see more of another young player at third in 2014... Eduardo Escobar Escobar might be that better option than Florimon and/or a decent platoon-mate for Plouffe. I look at his numbers next to Florimon's numbers and I see very similar players. Low contact, a few walks, good speed, but not on-base enough to utilize it, good glove and the ability to play a couple positions. Escobar is two years younger and might be a better defender. Even if he can't unseat Florimon for the shortstop job, he should provide enough value as a guy who can play all infield position to keep his job while cheap. If Plouffe doesn't improve offensively, I'd give Escobar some starts at third as well. At least Escobar will play great defense. Escobar will be cheap in 2015, even though he'll be arbitration-eligible. I hope he gets a longer look; I like him. Brian Dozier Dozier is probably one of three sure bets for 2015, with Oswaldo Arcia and the new first baseman. In 2013, Dozier reclaimed his lost plate discipline, but also traded a few strikeouts for more power. He hit more fly balls and finished 2013 with 18 home runs. His defense was much better at second and he finished the season with 2.8 fWAR, good for 8th among all qualifying MLB second basemen. However, Dozier was very up and down in 2013, and this chart proves it: [TABLE=class: grid, width: 500] [/TD][TD]OPS+ K% BB% BB/K BABIP LD% GB% FB% HR HR/FB April 71 17.7 7.6 0.43 0.280 22.8 36.8 40.4 0 0 May 42 23.6 3.4 0.14 0.276 14.5 51.6 33.9 2 9.5 June 152 15.4 16.5 1.07 0.364 20.0 36.7 43.3 5 19.2 July 101 17.1 5.7 0.33 0.252 25.0 32.9 42.1 2 6.3 August 139 19.9 7.8 0.39 0.347 24.8 30.7 44.6 6 13.3 Sept/Oct 93 21.2 8.5 0.40 0.255 15.9 42.7 41.5 3 8.8 [/TABLE] Dozier's best month appears to be June, when he started his breakout. He did some things really well in June, including striking out at the lowest rate he posted in any month and nearly doubling his season walk rate. He also had a really high .364 BABIP and an equally high 19.2 home run to fly ball ratio. I actually like what I see in August a little more. He had less luck with fly balls going over the fence and a slightly lower BABIP. He also walked at a rate more in line with his season average, which seems a lot more sustainable than a giant one-month spike. The plate discipline he showed in every month other than May should keep his performance at the level we grew accustomed to from June on. His home run total might have been a bit of a fluke though. I'd guess he'd settle more in the 10-15 range going forward, which is still very valuable at second base. Even in his best months, he never hit above .260. However, if he can walk about 8-10% of the time and provide a little pop, he could settle in around .250/.320/.430, which would be great and pretty similar to his overall numbers in the second half of 2013. He won't be arbitration eligible until 2016, so he'll definitely be around in 2015. Monthly samples are pretty small, so this is all pretty futile. I'm just going to predict 45 home runs and be done with it. Joe Mauer I could be all sensational, say that Mauer is cooked and that he won't provide any value as a first baseman, but I wouldn't believe it. Mauer is an excellent hitter and that won't change at a different position. Mauer may not be a traditional number 3 hitter, but batting order is largely overrated anyway. Mauer makes outs at one of the lowest rates in the Majors today. Avoiding outs helps the team win and there's absolutely no reason to think that Mauer will lose that skill anytime soon. He's a lock. There we have it, an entire tour of the Twins' 40-man roster. The Twins have some really great pieces already on the roster. They will add a few next off-season and add a few from their own farm system. Also, some will come out of nowhere, surprising everyone with their contributions. I fully expect the 2015 Twins to be good. How good depends a lot on the 40 men who occupy the Twins' roster. Thanks for reading, everyone!
  16. Remember that song "December" by Collective Soul? This mailbag is dedicated to that song. As is typical, these are actual questions that will be actually answered by me. This month, I even have some questions written by others! Fame! FAME! The Twins have been surprisingly active this Fall, adding two starting pitchers and cutting one Australian. What do you think the Twins' next move will be? Also, what do you hope the Twins' next move will be? Thanks, I am an avid scanner of your work. Brad S., St. Paul, MN What an intelligent question-set! I think the Twins will make their next move this week and I think it will be something relatively minor. I could see the Twins adding a veteran backup catcher like John Buck or Kurt Suzuki, but no one overly sexy. If not a catcher, I'll bet that the next move will be for one more starting pitcher. The Twins have watched injuries and suckiness decimate their rotation for three years now. I'd guess that adding one more arm to the rotation will be a priority. Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! My hope is that the next move the Twins make is really smart. As opposed to a dumb move, of course. I'd like to see the Twins target a starting pitching reclamation project to use in the rotation until Alex Meyer is ready, hopefully in July or August. I think there are three interesting names: Shaun Marcum, Johan Santana and Scott Baker. Each has talent and each has major injury issues. When Colby Lewis signed a minor league deal, I was slightly surprised. I'd say each of these three are in the Colby Lewis range of talent/injury concern. I'd like to see the Twins land one on either an MiLB deal or a deal in the one year, $1-3 million range. Seems like a decent investment. Real Questions! - Thanks to Paul and Eric Pleiss of the always entertaining Talk to Contact podcast and Puckett's Pond and Knuckleballs, respectively. Check out their work on the internet. Do you think the Twins will sign a 1B/DH type guy, or even a 3B or middle infielder off the free agent market? Essentially what I want to know is, will Nick Punto or Mark Reynolds be a Twin in 2014? -P The greatest flaw in a fake mailbag is that while you wait for questions to answer, things actually happen. Thus, Nick Punto signed a very fair contract to hustle for the As in 2014 and probably 2015 because they will fall in love with him like everyone else does. Reynolds is still a free agent and I don't hate the idea of bringing him in on a small deal. Reynolds mostly sucks, but he does have massive power. He has 20 or more home runs in each of the last six seasons. Sure his career batting average is .233 and he strikes out more than I fail to come up with analogies, but his awesome right-handed power could play well at Target Field. That said, I think that Jason Bartlett will be the only Twins' infield signing this off-season. Joe Mauer moving to first closed off that position for the next half-decade, Brian Dozier is entrenched at second and the left side can be cobbled together with Trevor Plouffe, Pedro Florimon, Eduardo Escobar and possibly Bartlett. Twins HOF voting is open on Facebook (Facebook voting is, obviously, the best way to make any decision), who are you voting for besides Chuck Knoblauch? -Eric Don't forget about Twitter! I remember when everyone thought Thomas Dewey beat Harry Truman in the 1948 presidential election, but everyone forgot about the Twitter results. I actually wrote an entire post about my Twins Hall of Fame ballot. If you missed it, you can find it here. If you don't like reading, I would vote for Knoblauch, Shane Mack, Tom Brunansky, Brian Harper and Corey Koskie. I would not vote for Dazzle. I have standards. What does the former Minnesota Twin Matt Fox say? -Eric Ok, I did not get this reference. I listen to "The Starters," a truly glorious NBA podcast. One of their promos has Rick Fox (former NBA player and "actor") saying, "The dog says woof, the cat says meow, but what does the Fox say?" He laughs like a total knob after he says it too. Real creepy laugh, like he's going to try to steal your significant other. Anyway, the reference comes from a viral video seen by literally millions of people and not by me. I prefer , with just over 17,000 views, mostly from me. I have every intention of re-casting this video with current Twins players. Just be patient. That said, I am guessing Matt Fox would say "thanks for giving me one start, Twins." Or, he might say, "why couldn't I have been born just three years later when the Twins really sucked and could have used a random AAA starter for a few months." It just depends on how negative he is. The Twins missed out on Jarrod Saltinecracker and I am bummed out. I am not ready for the Josmil Pinto era and I think the Twins need Salty or the veteran presence/punch-ability of A.J. Pierzynski. What do you think? Brad S., St. Paul, MN Not to go all meta and disagree with mysel...I mean a reader, but I am glad the Twins didn't land Saltalamacchia. I outlined five very reasonable reasons why in a post here. More self-promotion! Basically, I don't think Saltalamacchia is that great and much of his success in the past has a flukiness to it that scares me away from a three-year deal when Pinto could end up being a better offensive player as early as 2014. I'm sure he'll enjoy his two months with the Marlins. Ok hotshot, you always think you're so smart. I have report cards that say otherwise. How many games do the Twins win in 2014? Don't be gutless like you usually are and give a range. Pick a number. Put your name on it. Brad S's Mom, St. Paul, MN First off, most of my teachers were out to get me. Second, I'm going to be brave and say 74 wins. The additions of Nolasco and Hughes might be somewhat overrated for 2014. My opinion is that each pitcher is pretty good and could be better than that if things break correctly. I am more excited about their signings as a symbol of a potential shift in thinking within the Front Office. The Twins either see that free agency is an important component in building a team or they feel the team is close to contending and need to fill remaining holes quickly. Either way, I prefer that to treading water. Back to 2014. The Twins won 66 games in 2013, but their Pythagorean record gave them 63 wins. Those figures are pretty close, so I don't put too much stock in the difference. Replacing Mike Pelfrey and Vance Worley/Scott Diamond/Pedro Hernandez with Hughes and Nolasco has to add a few wins to the total. It just has to. I mean, look at those names. Gross. In addition, the Twins played all of September without their best player (Mr. Charisma himself, Joe Mauer!). The Twins were 8-20 in September. Mauer last played on August 19. The Twins were 54-69 on that day, good for a 71-win pace. I don't really think Mauer was the sole reason why the team fell off that pace, but he was likely part of the reason. In addition, a bad team is likely to use a lot of odd pieces in September, which could explain why guys like Doug Bernier, Eric Fryer, Cole De Vries, Pedro Hernandez, Shairon Martis and Liam Hendriks were playing in September. The team I watched in 2013 was more competitive than the team I watched in 2012. Both teams won 66 games. I believe the Twins were better in 2013 and could have won more games if the needed/wanted to. I think that the team will be trying a bit harder to win in September of 2014 and I think the roster will be more talented as well. 74 wins seems reasonable. Both the real and fake mailbags have been emptied and I feel very satisfied. If you want to contribute a question to a future mailbag, feel free to send me an email at kevinsloweywasframed@gmail.com. Or, you can find me on Twitter - @bridman77. Or, you can come to my house. It's a little messy right now. Have fun, everyone!
  17. Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! A mailbag on a Tuesday? Now I've heard of everything! Remember that song "December" by Collective Soul? This mailbag is dedicated to that song. As is typical, these are actual questions that will be actually answered by me. This month, I even have some questions written by others! Fame! FAME! The Twins have been surprisingly active this Fall, adding two starting pitchers and cutting one Australian. What do you think the Twins' next move will be? Also, what do you hope the Twins' next move will be? Thanks, I am an avid scanner of your work. Brad S., St. Paul, MN What an intelligent question-set! I think the Twins will make their next move this week and I think it will be something relatively minor. I could see the Twins adding a veteran backup catcher like John Buck or Kurt Suzuki, but no one overly sexy. If not a catcher, I'll bet that the next move will be for one more starting pitcher. The Twins have watched injuries and suckiness decimate their rotation for three years now. I'd guess that adding one more arm to the rotation will be a priority. My hope is that the next move the Twins make is really smart. As opposed to a dumb move, of course. I'd like to see the Twins target a starting pitching reclamation project to use in the rotation until Alex Meyer is ready, hopefully in July or August. I think there are three interesting names: Shaun Marcum, Johan Santana and Scott Baker. Each has talent and each has major injury issues. When Colby Lewis signed a minor league deal, I was slightly surprised. I'd say each of these three are in the Colby Lewis range of talent/injury concern. I'd like to see the Twins land one on either an MiLB deal or a deal in the one year, $1-3 million range. Seems like a decent investment. Real Questions! - Thanks to Paul and Eric Pleiss of the always entertaining Talk to Contact podcast and Puckett's Pond and Knuckleballs, respectively. Check out their work on the internet. Do you think the Twins will sign a 1B/DH type guy, or even a 3B or middle infielder off the of free agent market? Essentially what I want to know is, will Nick Punto or Mark Reynolds be a Twin in 2014? -P The greatest flaw in a fake mailbag is that while you wait for questions to answer, things actually happen. Thus, Nick Punto signed a very fair contract to hustle for the As in 2014 and probably 2015 because they will fall in love with him like everyone else does. Reynolds is still a free agent and I don't hate the idea of bringing him in on a small deal. Reynolds mostly sucks, but he does have massive power. He has 20 or more home runs in each of the last six seasons. Sure his career batting average is .233 and he strikes out more than I fail to come up with analogies, but his awesome right-handed power could play well at Target Field. That said, I think that Jason Bartlett will be the only Twins' infield signing this off-season. Joe Mauer moving to first closed off that position for the next half-decade, Brian Dozier is entrenched at second and the left side can be cobbled together with Trevor Plouffe, Pedro Florimon, Eduardo Escobar and possibly Bartlett. Twins HOF voting is open on Facebook (Facebook voting is, obviously, the best way to make any decision), who are you voting for besides Chuck Knoblauch? -Eric Don't forget about Twitter! I remember when everyone thought that Thomas Dewey beat Harry Truman in the 1948 presidential election, but everyone forgot about the Twitter results. I actually wrote an entire post about my Twins Hall of Fame ballot. If you missed it, you can find it here. If you don't like reading, I would vote for Knoblauch, Shane Mack, Tom Brunansky, Brian Harper and Corey Koskie. I would not vote for Dazzle. I have standards. What does the former Minnesota Twin Matt Fox say? -Eric Ok, I did not get this reference. I listen to "The Starters," a truly glorious NBA podcast. One of their promos has Rick Fox (former NBA player and "actor") saying, "The dog says woof, the cat says meow, but what does the Fox say?" He laughs like a total knob after he says it too. Real creepy laugh, like he's going to try to steal your significant other. Anyway, the reference comes from a viral video seen by literally millions of people and not by me. I prefer , with just over 17,000 views, mostly from me. I have every intention of re-casting this video with current Twins players. Just be patient. That said, I am guessing Matt Fox would say "thanks for giving me one start, Twins." Or, he might say, "why couldn't I have been born just three years later when the Twins really sucked and could have used a random AAA starter for a few months." It just depends on how negative he is. The Twins missed out on Jarrod Saltinecracker and I am bummed out. I am not ready for the Josmil Pinto era and I think the Twins need Salty or the veteran presence/punch-ability of A.J. Pierzynski. What do you think? Brad S., St. Paul, MN Not to go all meta and disagree with mysel...I mean a reader, but I am glad the Twins didn't land Saltalamacchia. I outlined five very reasonable reasons why in a post here. More self-promotion! Basically, I don't think Saltalamacchia is that great and much of his success in the past has a flukiness to it that scares me away from a three-year deal when Pinto could end up being a better offensive player as early as 2014. I'm sure he'll enjoy his two months with the Marlins. Ok hotshot, you always think you're so smart. I have report cards that say otherwise. How many games do the Twins win in 2014? Don't be gutless like you usually are and give a range. Pick a number. Put your name on it. Brad S's Mom, St. Paul, MN First off, most of my teachers were out to get me. Second, I'm going to be brave and say 74 wins. The additions of Nolasco and Hughes might be somewhat overrated for 2014. My opinion is that each pitcher is pretty good and could be better than that if things break correctly. I am more excited about their signings as a symbol of a potential shift in thinking within the Front Office. The Twins either see that free agency is an important component in building a team or they feel the team is close to contending and need to fill remaining holes quickly. Either way, I prefer that to treading water. Back to 2014. The Twins won 66 games in 2013, but their Pythagorean record gave them 63 wins. Those figures are pretty close, so I don't put too much stock in the difference. Replacing Mike Pelfrey and Vance Worley/Scott Diamond/Pedro Hernandez with Hughes and Nolasco has to add a few wins to the total. It just has to. I mean, look at those names. Gross. In addition, the Twins played all of September without their best player (Mr. Charisma himself, Joe Mauer!). The Twins were 8-20 in September. Mauer last played on August 19. The Twins were 54-69 on that day, good for a 71-win pace. I don't really think Mauer was the reason why the team fell off that pace, but he was likely part of the reason. In addition, a bad team is likely to use a lot of odd pieces in September, which could explain why guys like Doug Bernier, Eric Fryer, Cole De Vries, Pedro Hernandez, Shairon Martis and Liam Hendriks were playing in September. The team I watched in 2013 was more competitive than the team I watched in 2012. Both teams won 66 games. I believe the Twins were better in 2013 and could have won more games if the needed/wanted to. I think that the team will be trying a bit harder to win in September of 2014 and I think the roster will be more talented as well. 74 wins seems reasonable. Both the real and fake mailbags have been emptied and I feel very satisfied. If you want to contribute a question to a future mailbag, feel free to send me an email at kevinsloweywasframed@gmail.com. Or, you can find me on Twitter - @bridman77. Or, you can come to my house. It's a little messy right now. Have fun, everyone!
  18. Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! Man o' Man, the Hall of Fame season is all around us! I see columns and posts everywhere! I even contributed a post to my own blog yesterday, where I went through my personal fake Hall of Fame ballot. If you missed it, check it out! Today, I want to discuss an even more important and personally significant Hall of Fame: The Minnesota Twins Hall of Fame. Voting is going on as we speak, using the democratic hallmarks of Facebook and Twitter. The ballot has been live for a week or so, and I wanted to weigh in on my official picks for the Twins Hall of Fame. I have identified seven Twins I might vote for (eventually, I'm very busy of course). You aren't going to see a lot of advanced stats here. The Twins Hall of Fame is all about wonderment. It's about memories and dingers. It's about the intangibles. It's really about me not wanting to do any research for this. And really, isn't that what life is all about? I'm only voting for players I've watched play. I'll leave Larry Hisle's campaign to my Dad, who has no clue how to use Twitter. Godspeed, Larry and Dad. Tom Brunansky (OF, 1982-88) - Yep Bruno's debut with the Twins was just shortly before I was born. He made it through six and a sliver seasons with the Twins before being jettisoned for a vastly inferior player with feathered hair. Now, he's back with the organization as a coach, he had an epic mustache and he was a really important part of a World Series team. He has the ninth most home runs in Twins history. I think Michael Cuddyer is a lock for the Twins HOF in the future, and Bruno was better. I think he's a worthy candidate and he gets my vote. Dan Gladden (OF, 1987-91) - Nah This is hard for me. He won two World Series with the Twins, scored the winning run in 1991 and I actually enjoy Dazzle as a broadcaster. The problem is that he wasn't really a very good player. He was the team's leadoff hitter, but didn't really have the skills to hit in that position in the order. He only had a .318 OBP as a Twin, lower than guys like Delmon Young, Scott Leius and Nick Punto. Gladden was actually pretty bad in both World Series seasons too. I'm not sure how exclusive the Twins want their Hall of Fame to be, but Dan Gladden doesn't really fit with the guys currently included. Brian Harper (C, 1988-93) - Yes Only four players in Twins history have a higher batting average than Harper (minimum 2400 plate appearances): Rod Carew, Joe Mauer, Kirby Puckett and Shane Mack (who we'll get to shortly). Rare air. Harper provided quality offense and adequate defense at one of the most important positions on the diamond. He was consistent and durable in his six seasons with the Twins. He was a very important part of a World Series winning team. I consider him underrated, although I'm sure stats guys would think he's overrated. I'm voting for him regardless. Chuck Knoblauch (2B, 1991-97) - Oh goodness, yes. This is a slam dunk. Knoblauch took over as the best player on the team from Kirby Puckett, and actually did so in 1994 while Puckett was still active. Knoblauch is right behind Harper for sixth on that batting average list from above. He has the most stolen bases in Twins history, the sixth most runs, the 10th most hits and the 11th most doubles. He also has the seventh highest rWAR (for hitters). Simply put, he's one of the best players in Twins history. We (as fans) have a complicated history with Knobby, but it's time to bury the hatchet. I think he will get a ridiculous ovation when he comes out for his enshrinement. Corey Koskie (3B, 1998-2004) - Yep Koskie probably is the most underrated player in Twins history. It's not really that fans didn't appreciate his contributions, it's that he contributed even more than we thought he did at the time. Only Mauer, Carew, Knoblauch, Harmon Killebrew, Matt Lawton (who probably should be on this ballot), Steve Braun and Mack have a higher career OBP with the Twins (min 2400 PA). He also has the tenth highest slugging percentage in Twins history (min 2400 PA too). He was a great defender early in his career and remained good until he left for Toronto. Leaving for Canada is a ding, but his career with the Twins was great. Shane Mack (OF, 1990-94) - Oh yeah Mack doesn't have the longevity of others on this list, but he was a fantastic player and produced better than everyone but Knoblauch when he was with the team. Using that 2400 PA sample I already have in Baseball Reference's season index, Mack is 4th in batting average, 4th in slugging, and 7th in OBP. If it weren't for the stupid players' strike, he may have stayed longer and he'd be that high in the counting stat categories as well. He was really good in Japan. Even with just five years of service, he still has the 15th highest rWAR in Twins' history (hitters only). Plus, I said this on Twitter last week, he's been AWOL from team functions for years. This might bring him back into Twins Territory. It's a human interest story AND he's deserving. Let's do this, Twins fans! Kevin Tapani (P, 1989-95) - Eh, maybe...no A lot of the methods I used to justify players above, could be used for Tapani. He's 9th all-time in Twins career wins, 9th in innings pitched and 12th in strikeouts. However, the Twins have some outstanding pitchers in their history and then a whole lot of unimpressive hurlers. Emphasis on hurl. Only ten pitchers have thrown 1000 or more innings for the Twins and Tapani is second-worst. Tapani wasn't a bad pitcher, but he was more of the best of a mediocre bunch than a good pitcher among other good pitchers. He was outstanding in 1991, and average or worse in every other season. I can't vote for him. There you have it. It's very hard for me to make an informed decision about these players. I watched them growing up and I loved each of them. All I want to do is find reasons why they should be added to this important institution. I'll enjoy watching their ceremony and I might even try to go to Mack's in person. I'm not very objective, but I don't care. This Hall of Fame is for the fans, and I was a big fan of all of these players. I'll probably even vote for Gladden and Tapani, just because I can and it's fun. Thanks for reading. Who are you voting for?
  19. Yeah, I agree with that. It will be interesting to see Garza's contract, but I could see it being two extra years and about $60-70 million more.
  20. Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! I haven't posted these here lately because I am comically lazy. Luckily for the both of you who care, I have an archive set up right here. Enjoy! State of the Team 1999 Record: 63-97, 5th in the AL Central 1999 Overview: At least fans were only subjected to 160 games. 2000 Outlook: Welcome to the Jay Canizaro era! Players Lost - Free Agency As has been the case for the last few off-seasons, the Twins didn't lose anyone of substantive value because they barely employed anyone of substantive value. After the 1999 season, the following "notable" names left for greener pastures: Brent Gates, Tony Fiore, Gary Rath, Shane Bowers and Kevin Ohme. Sweet mix. A few reasonably notable players did leave after the '99 season including a reliable reliever, a local catcher and a former ROY. The Twins drafted Mike Trombley way back in 1989. At his peak, he was a decent, but not great reliever who could throw a lot of innings and get some strikeouts. He peaked in 1996 and at well over a million bucks per season, he was a luxury not needed on a very crappy team. He left for Baltimore and never looked back...until he returned in 2002 for four innings. Marty Cordova was also drafted in 1989 and won the AL Rookie of the Year award in 1995. In his five seasons with the Twins, he hit .277/.348/.451, providing great value as a former fifth-round pick. He never had a season as fine as his rookie season, and at times he was pretty brutal. All in all, not bad for this era. Cordova signed a free agent deal with the Red Sox and didn't make their team out of Spring Training. Yikes. He did latch on with the Blue Jays the next day and played four more seasons in the Majors. Terry Steinbach was drafted in 1983 and signed with the Twins before the 1997 season. He was coming off of a monster '96 season and he didn't really match his '96 numbers in his three combined seasons with the Twins. That said, it was fun to have a local boy on the team. I guess. He retired after the '99 season. Players Gained - Free Agency Are you ready?!? JASON MAXWELL! BOBBY AYALA! BUTCH HUSKEY! TODD RIZZO! ROBIN JENNINGS! RICK GREENE! MARCUS JENSEN! Let's get physical! The Twins went ape this off-season, right? Maxwell spent his 2000 season as a utility man, playing games at second, short and third. He also hit .243/.298/.324, meaning he had no utility at the plate. Not to fear, he was signed to just a one-year deal and there's simply no way the Twins would bring him back. Oh wait, they did. They spent over $400,000 on Maxwell over two seasons, money that would have easily been better spent on eWorld stock. Butch Huskey is likely best remembered for his heroic quest to tear down the Berlin Wall. He even went so far as to show the danger of walls when he crashed skeleton-first into the left-field wall at the Metrodome. Sadly, no one had the heart to tell poor Butch that the Berlin Wall had been torn down over a decade earlier. Oh well, at least he hit .223/.306/.353 in 64 games before being traded as PART of a deal that netted the Twins "The Immortal Todd Sears." We'll get to Ayala in a minute. TRADEZ!/Rule Five Madnezzz! The Twins had the very first pick in the Rule 5 draft. This was their trophy for finishing dead last in all of Major League Baseball in 1999. With that first pick, the Twins selected Jared Camp, a walk-heavy, 24-year-old reliever who pretty much sucked. Now, the next part can be looked at in two ways. One, the Twins realized their mistake and quickly worked out a deal with the Florida Marlins, who had selected a 20-year-old dude named Johan Santana. The Twins would get Santana and some cash and the Marlins would get Camp, the pitcher they truly wanted. Or, you can look at it very cynically and deduce that the Twins really wanted Santana, but they really, really wanted more cash. Therefore, they slow-played the Marlins for extra chedda. However it went down and however you want to look at it, the trade for Santana was probably the best deal the Twins have ever made. Santana blossomed into the best pitcher in recent Twins' history, won 2 Cy Youngs, earned 2 more and basically won the hearts of all of Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa, Manitoba, and parts of Wisconsin that should really just cheer for the Brewers. Kidding...or am I...I am...but wait, what if...no I love Wisconsin...I just hate those shirts that say "Bucky" more than anything...Not because of the University, because I think those shirts are stupid... Biggest Splash Bobby Ayala didn't play a single game for the Twins and therefore, he was the best signing of the off-season. By simply not playing and not providing negative value, he was the best player the Twins acquired in the off-season. Way to go, Bobby! Sorry, can't count the Santana move, there's simply no way the Twins had any clue it would work out as it did. No credit! NONE! Biggest Miss A crap-way tie for everything. What a bummer of a Fall/Winter/Early Spring. If you have to pick one, it's Huskey because I think the Twins reasonably thought he could be useful, coming off of a decent '99 season. He was useful in testing the structural integrity of the Metrodome. My Own Personal Heartbreak I always hated Tony Fiore and he wasn't around to complain about any longer. Does that count? Arbitrary Overall Assessment: F Consecutive Fs! Not only did the Twins appear to have no interest in actually fielding a competitive team, they didn't seem to have any interest in fielding a merely bad team. Look at the moves that were made this off-season! That's a stack of garbage placed between two slices of rye bread (editor's note: Brad hates rye bread). In 2012, the Twins were ripped when Kevin Correia was their best free agent pickup. Kevin Correia blows this garbage sandwich out of the water. I lived these moments and I can't remember how it felt to be a fan at this time. Then again, that might just say it all. Next Monday, we'll look at the 2000 off-season. See you then!
  21. Where were you when the Twins became a completely different franchise? In the last 72 hours or so, the Twins have doled out $73 million in long-term contracts, surpassing their previous off-season record by nearly $300 billion dollars (if you believe some fans). On Wednesday, the Twins signed Ricky Nolasco to a four-year deal, and tonight, they added former Yankee Phil Hughes to an increasingly (and suddenly) talented starting rotation. Hughes will earn $8 million for the next three seasons, earning a longer contract than many experts had predicted. The Twins have to bank on a change of scenery transforming Hughes into a completely different pitcher. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]Over the course of his career, Hughes has been an extreme fly ball pitcher in a park that is probably smaller than the park in your neighborhood. As such, he has been very home run-prone, averaging in his career 1.29 home runs per nine innings. The move to Target Field could help suppress those home runs. Park Factor stats compare the rate of stats at home vs. the rate of stats on the road. For home runs in 2013, Yankee Stadium had a 9th-best HR Park Factor of 1.128, greatly favoring hitters. The HR Park Factor at Target Field in 2013 was 0.802, 27th in the league. The great thing about this normalized stat is it takes out the types of players each team has, so the fact that the Twins don't hit a lot of home runs as a team is factored in. This seems to indicate that Hughes' biggest bugaboo could be neutralized to some extent. Although by definition extreme fly ball pitchers will always be somewhat more home run-prone. Hughes might be classified incorrectly as a strikeout pitcher. His career rate of 19.7% is slightly above average, but also just slightly higher than Scott Baker's 19.1% rate. That said, Hughes does throw hard. He consistently sits 92-93 with his fastball and can touch 95. He has a low-80s slider that he has developed over the years and uses as an out pitch. He had a 31.3% strikeout rate with that pitch in 2013. His fastball was crushed for a .917 OPS last season, but the home ballpark change and crazy high fastball BABIP of .337 would point toward improvement with that pitch in coming years. His split stats are encouraging as well. He doesn't really have a noticeable platoon split, as his career OPS against lefties is .760 and his career OPS against righties is .743. His walk rate and strikeout rate are better against righties, although his rates against lefties are not bad either. He actually allows home runs at a higher rate against right-handed batters, which you might not have guessed. Moving to Target Field won't help that final rate much, but the rest of the stats are encouraging. His home/road splits really catch the eye. His career ERA at home is 4.96 and his career ERA on the road is 4.10. At home versus lefties, he surrendered a .831 OPS, basically equivalent to facing Hunter Pence in every at-bat. In contrast, lefties had an OPS of just .681 on the road, or an entire lineup of Brandon Crawfords. Against righties, Hughes gave up an OPS of .781 at home and an OPS of .700 on the road. All these splits were even worse last year, and he still had an xFIP of 4.35. Target Field won't fix everything, but New Yankee Stadium was not doing Hughes any favors. Hughes will always give up his share of home runs. All fly ball pitchers do. However, with his good strikeout rate, better-than-good walk rate, and good raw stuff, it is conceivable that Hughes could greatly improve his performance with the Twins. Add the fact that he'll be just 30 when this very reasonable contract ends, and you get a shark move from a GM who has never been described as any sort of vicious predator animal. In my free agent starting pitcher preview, I wrote the following: Who will the Twins actually sign? I have no clue. I hope they are shockingly active. I'd love to see Garza, Johnson and Arroyo on this team next year. How wild would that be? Terry Ryan shows up at Spring Training with an earring. He starts calling everyone "playa." Constant Finger Guns. It would be amazing. Make it happen, TR. I had the wrong names, but the level of activity matches. I hope the Twins beat writers can get used to being called "playa." Blow the smoke off those finger guns, TR. In fact, why not reload those babies and sign a catcher next? Why stop there? Bronson Arroyo is still available. Scott Kazmir isn't going to get a larger deal than Hughes and the Twins still have money to spend. If that happens, you can expect to see Terry Ryan in a leather jacket all summer long, no matter how hot it gets. Ray-Bans too. Personally, I'm basking in the glow of a Twins team that is actually committed to getting better. I'm getting excited to an uncontrollable point. You can analyze the talent of Nolasco and Hughes until sundown. In fact, both guys might completely flame out next year. What you can't say any longer is that the Twins won't spend money to win baseball games. They just sunk $73 million into the rotation and greatly improved the team in the process. I'm starting to think this team could win 75-80 games next year. I need to sit down. Wait, I am sitting down. I need to lie down. It's all just too exciting. Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed!
  22. Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! Where were you when the Twins became a completely different franchise? In the last 72 hours or so, the Twins have doled out $73 million in long-term contracts, surpassing their previous off-season record by nearly $300 billion dollars (if you believe some fans). On Wednesday, the Twins signed Ricky Nolasco to a four-year deal, and tonight, they added former Yankee Phil Hughes to an increasingly (and suddenly) talented starting rotation. Hughes will earn $8 million for the next three seasons, earning a longer contract than many experts had predicted. The Twins have to bank on a change of scenery transforming Hughes into a completely different pitcher. Over the course of his career, Hughes has been an extreme fly ball pitcher in a park that is probably smaller than the park in your neighborhood. As such, he has been very home run-prone, averaging 1.29 home runs per nine innings in his career. The move to Target Field could help suppress those home runs. Park Factor stats compare the rate of stats at home vs. the rate of stats on the road. For home runs in 2013, Yankee Stadium had a 9th-best HR Park Factor of 1.128, greatly favoring hitters. The HR Park Factor at Target Field in 2013 was 0.802, 27th in the league. The great thing about this normalized stat is that it takes out the types of players each team has, so the fact that the Twins don't hit a lot of home runs as a team is factored in. This seems to indicate that Hughes' biggest bug-a-boo could be neutralized to some extent. Although, extreme fly ball pitchers will always be somewhat more home run-prone, by definition. Hughes might be classified incorrectly as a strikeout pitcher. His career rate of 19.7% is slightly above average, but also just slightly higher than Scott Baker's 19.1% rate. That said, Hughes does throw hard. He consistently sits 92-93 with his fastball and can touch 95. He has a low-80s slider that he has developed over the years and uses as an out pitch. He had a 31.3% strikeout rate with that pitch in 2013. His fastball was crushed for a .917 OPS last season, but the home ballpark change and crazy high fastball BABIP of .337 would point toward improvement with that pitch in coming years. His split stats are encouraging as well. He doesn't really have a noticeable platoon split, as his career OPS against lefties is .760 and his career OPS against righties is .743. His walk rate and strikeout rate are better against righties, although his rates against lefties are not bad either. He actually allows home runs at a higher rate against right-handed batters, which you might not have guessed. Moving to Target Field won't help that final rate much, but the rest of the stats are encouraging. His home/road splits really catch the eye. His career ERA at home is 4.96 and his career ERA on the road is 4.10. At home versus lefties, he surrenders a .831 OPS, basically equivalent to facing Hunter Pence in every at-bat. In contrast, lefties had an OPS of just .681 on the road, or an entire lineup of Brandon Crawfords. Against righties, Hughes gave up an OPS of .781 at home and an OPS of .700 on the road. All of these splits were even worse last year, and he still had an xFIP of 4.35. Target Field won't fix everything, but New Yankee Stadium was not doing Hughes any favors. Hughes will always give up his share of home runs. All fly ball pitchers do. However, with his good strikeout rate, better-than-good walk rate, and good raw stuff, it is conceivable that Hughes could greatly improve his performance with the Twins. Add in the fact that he'll be just 30 when this very reasonable contract ends, and you get a shark move from a GM who has never been described as any sort of vicious predator animal. In my free agent starting pitcher preview, I wrote the following: Who will the Twins actually sign? I have no clue. I hope they are shockingly active. I'd love to see Garza, Johnson and Arroyo on this team next year. How wild would that be? Terry Ryan shows up at Spring Training with an earring. He starts calling everyone "playa." Constant Finger Guns. It would be amazing. Make it happen, TR. I had the wrong names, but the level of activity matches. I hope the Twins beat writers can get used to being called "playa." Blow the smoke off those finger guns, TR. In fact, why not reload those babies and sign a catcher next? Why stop there? Bronson Arroyo is still available. Scott Kazmir isn't going to get a larger deal than Hughes and the Twins still have money to spend. If that happens, you can expect to see Terry Ryan in a leather jacket all summer long, no matter how hot it gets. Ray-Bans too. Personally, I'm basking in the glow of a Twins team that is actually committed to getting better. I'm getting excited to an uncontrollable point. You can analyze the talent of Nolasco and Hughes until sundown. In fact, both guys might completely flame out next year. What you can't say any longer is that the Twins won't spend money to win baseball games. They just sunk $73 million into the rotation and greatly improved the team in the process. I'm starting to think this team could win 75-80 games next year. I need to sit down. Wait, I am sitting down. I need to lie down. It's all just too exciting.
  23. Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! Yesterday, I outlined six starting pitchers who I think the Twins should target in an effort to boost their rotation. If you missed it, you can find it here. I am focusing on pitchers who are far from free agency, but maybe not household names. I want to find another Vance Worley, but this time, I'd like for it to work out a bit better. Instead of a flood of sadness, perhaps a geyser of effective innings? My one question to myself was why would teams give up these valuable players? It's not like they don't have idiots checking Fangraphs for walk and ground ball rates too. They know what xFIPs are. However, the Phillies traded Vance Worley just one year ago. While we all know how that turned out, it could have worked out nicely for the Twins. I mean, Worley had an excellent rookie season in 2011. He regressed a bit in 2012, but fought injuries too. He was just 25 and years from free agency. There was still reason to think he would be an effective pitcher going forward. He certainly wasn't in 2013, although he could still bounce back. The Vance Worley trade looks like a failure because of how he (and Trevor May to an extent) performed, but the idea wasn't a bad one. Find a good, but not dominant starter and add him to the back of the rotation cheaply. Moves like those free the team up for hypothetical free agent signings and blockbuster trades that aren't likely to happen 'round these parts. We can dream though. Anyway, I have six more players who I think fit that Worley archetype. Would you like to see them? Ivan Nova - New York Yankees - Age 27 in 2014, Free Agent in 2017 Nova probably seems like an odd inclusion. You don't have to dig to find out why he's good, he was just good in 2013. His 3.10 ERA was better than his 3.68 xFIP, so it's not like there's some great hidden value that some dork on Fangraphs can unearth. To explain his inclusion, I'll create a narrative. I just think Nova's a fine pitcher and I'm not sure a fine pitcher is right for the Yankees. The Yankees want stars, not values. They want CC Sabathias not Ivan Novas. Don't get me wrong, they'll use Ivan Novas, but they prefer to have BIG STAR names instead. Nova is a good pitcher. His ground ball rate is outstanding, he limits walks and his strikeout rate is good, although not great. The Twins would properly appreciate his value. End narrative. Wily Peralta - Milwaukee Brewers - Age 25 in 2014, Free Agent in 2019 When the Brewers signed Kyle Lohse right before last season, I posited that Peralta might become available via trade. I was completely wrong, but maybe the right deal didn't come along. Peralta's youth and upside would make him a more expensive trade target. His talent is so great that it might be worth paying a slight premium to acquire him. Peralta throws hard (94-95) but it hasn't translated to MLB strikeouts just yet (16.1% K rate in 2013). His walk rate is not high, but higher than I'd like (9.1%). His ground ball rate is nice though (51%). With some natural development, Peralta could still reach his lofty prospect ceiling. Right now, he's a number 4 or 5, but he could become a 3 and maybe even a 2. 1 to watch. David Phelps - New York Yankees - Age 27 in 2014, Free Agent in 2019 Back to the Big Apple! Phelps has shuffled between the Yankee rotation and bullpen over the past two seasons. As a reliever, he racks up strikeouts, with a 28% rate in 2013. As a starter, his K rate drops almost ten points, but still hovers around league-average. His walk rate actually dipped as a starter too. Phelps is a fly ball pitcher and we all know that left-handed power is suppressed at Target Field. His 2013 ERA was just under five, but his xFIP was just over four. He was lucky with HR/FB ratio, but had some bad luck with strand rate and BABIP. In all, Phelps could be a reliable 4th or 5th starter and I can't imagine he would cost much in return. Todd Redmond - Toronto Blue Jays - Age 29 in 2014, Free Agent in 2020 Redmond might be a one-year wonder, but his 2013 season was a quiet breakout campaign. Redmond basically spent all of 2009-2012 in AAA with Atlanta and Cincinnati. The Blue Jays had some injury issues in their rotation, so Redmond got his chance. He made 14 starts for the Blue Jays and posted a decent 4.32 ERA. His xFIP of 4.16 nearly matches, so you can basically believe what you see on the surface. Redmond's primary pitch is his sinker, but he has extreme fly ball tendencies. Very odd. Redmond gave up a lot of home runs last season, but his strikeout and walk rates were both very good and right in line with how he pitched in AAA for all those years. The Twins have had luck with sinkerballers in the past, and if Redmond becomes available again (he was waived twice last year), he could be a decent fifth starter for a few years. Just don't give him a Blackburn contract. Esmil Rogers - Toronto Blue Jays - Age 28 in 2014, Free Agent in 2017 BACK TO BACK BLUE JAYS! Canada is cool. Rogers throws hard, with a fastball sitting 93-94. His ERA in 2013 was a poor 4.77, but his xFIP was an acceptable 4.06. Rogers split his season between the bullpen and rotation and actually saw his strikeout rate jump when starting (17.4% to 11.3%) although he generally struck out more batters as a reliever in the past. Rogers gets enough ground balls and was a little unlucky with home runs last season. Rogers isn't going to be anything more than a 4th or 5th starter, but he could fill that role very cheaply. If nothing else, he could be Anthony Swarzak's replacement in long relief when Swarzak starts next year. Right? Nick Tepesch - Texas Rangers - Age 25 in 2014, Free Agent in 2019 I'm fond of Tepesch. In 2013, Tepesch was an early Rookie of the Year candidate, before fading hard in June and July. He ended the season with 17 starts, an ERA of 4.84 and an xFIP of 3.82. Tepesch is triple good - good strikeout rate, good walk rate, good ground ball rate. He's a sinker/slider pitcher who works around 90-91. Tepesch's slider is excellent, but his sinker and fastball were very hittable in 2013. He's just 25, but he projects to be the Rangers' sixth starter at best, possibly lower considering they just signed Colby Lewis. The Rangers could use a LF/DH kind of guy and the Twins have this Josh Willingham dude who they should really be considering shopping around. It's just an idea, but Tepesch isn't bad return for a 35-year-old, soon-to-be-free agent coming of an injury-plagued season. That's my list, what do you think? Obviously some of these guys are more impressive than others. If the Twins just exchange Mike Pelfrey for Esmil Rogers in the 2014 rotation, fans should rightfully picket Target Field and post snarky (but not clever) comments on the Twins' Facebook page. However, if the Twins could possibly land a big free agent like Matt Garza and then make a trade for someone like Dallas Keuchel, the rotation could be pretty decent for a good while. I'm finding it hard to believe the Twins will sign a big free agent, do you really think they'll sign two or more? All teams need 4th and 5th starters. Kevin Correia is the only Twins pitcher who I would consider a reliable 4th or 5th starter. Unfortunately, he's masquerading as their Ace. Adding to the back of the rotation is not exciting, but it helps win games. If Correia was the Twins' 4th best starter, the rotation could be pretty good. The 2000s Twins had some unsexy, but reliable starters at the back of their rotations. The 12 guys I outlined won't help transform the team, but they are good supplements. Some could be even better. I support exploring all avenues.
  24. This is excellent analysis! I really like Escobar too, and I hope he beats Florimon out for the SS job in Spring Training. I think his offensive upside is clearly higher and he might even be a better defender. He's 2 years younger than Florimon too, so there's no downside.
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