Brad Swanson

Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! Weekend Recap I wrote about Kyle Gibson's road struggles on Friday and then he totally redeemed himself by breaking the Twins' five-game losing streak with an excellent road effort. The rest of the series was a real drag, although Jorge Polanco's triple in the ninth on Friday was pretty exciting. In fact, Jorge Polanco's everything is pretty exciting. Joe Mauer Over the last ten games, Mauer has raised his average about 15 points. If he maintains that pace, he'll be hitting over .400. So yeah, pretty good. That's probably not realistic, but it does seem that Mauer is getting his proverbial stuff together. His line drive rate has been slowly climbing and it seems that he has been finding more holes on the field. Maybe he is figuring out the "Mauer shift" or maybe his luck is evening out or maybe nothing is different at all. No one is happy that Mauer is having a bad season (even if it seems like some revel in it at times) and a productive Mauer is extremely important to the success of the Twins. It seems that he could be on the path back to his old self. I hope so. Sam Fuld So you know when you join a new website and you have to create a password? If you don't set up a proper password, you get that red "x" next to your choice and you have to enter a new password. I think baseball lineups should be entered in the same manner. http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ro5KLD8Qqgs/U6-ISV8QEpI/AAAAAAAABhc/quzgLxGk0Jo/s1600/fuldleadoff.png There are literally 11 better options than Fuld. Fuld's OPS is better than only Kendrys Morales and Pedro Florimon. One of those is a fluke and the other is a from a guy who probably shouldn't have a Major League job (more on that shortly!). Fuld plays center, runs fast and is short. Those three things alone should not overshadow that Fuld plays poorly, can't run when he isn't on base, and, well...I can't think of something that pairs with his height. It's almost as if the Twins are on a runaway bus that is set to explode if anyone thinks outside of the box. Pop quiz hot shot: Isn't it bad enough that the lineup options are so limited that Sam Fuld has to simply be in the lineup every day? It doesn't mean he needs to be put in a position where he could bat upwards of five times in one game. How's that for a 20-year-old reference? Pickles Dillhoefer Oh my goodness. I hate when people say "it was better in my day" or "they don't make things like they used to" because there's some serious confirmation bias working there. However, it's a scientific fact that nicknames were better in the early 1900s. I found Ol' Pickles up there because I was doing some Pedro Florimon research. Florimon is currently hitting under .100. His OPS is just barely above .300. If Florimon can somehow get to 100 plate appearances this season (and I think we all hope he doesn't), he'll be the first player since 1931 to hit under .100 and have an OPS under .300 with 100 or more PAs. Unreal. It wasn't Pickles, it was Ed Connolly, but Pickles did hit .126/.144/.158 in 104 plate appearances in 1917. He's also went by "Pickles." If Florimon starts going by "Pickles" Florimon, he'll become my favorite player, even with a .100 BA. Former Twin Update - Ryan Doumit I think it's safe to say the Twins sold Doumit at the right time. When they originally signed Doumit, I thought it was a safe, smart signing. He performed well for the Twins to start the 2012 season and earned an extension. However, he was always a comedy act in the field and his value as a batter was tied up in his power. The Twins unloaded Doumit for Sean Gilmartin this past December and if Gilmartin can simply perform as a sign post, he'll provide more value than Doumit has in 2014. Doumit isn't playing very often, shocking considering his defense and the lack of a DH in the NL. He currently has a strikeout-to-walk ratio over ten. TEN!!! He wore number 9 in his final season with the Twins, so I'd like to see that ratio dip just a tad in honor of his Twins' career. Random Top Ten List - BB/9 in a season since 1961 [TABLE=class: grid, width: 500] [TH=align: center]Rk[/TH] [TH=align: left]Player[/TH] [TH=align: center]BB9 ▴[/TH] [TH=align: left]Year[/TH] [TH=align: center]Age[/TH] [TH=align: center]Tm[/TH] [TH=align: center]GS[/TH] [TH=align: center]W[/TH] [TH=align: center]L[/TH] [TH=align: center]IP[/TH] [TH=align: center]H[/TH] [TH=align: center]ER[/TH] [TH=align: center]BB[/TH] [TH=align: center]SO[/TH] [TH=align: center]ERA[/TH] [TH=align: center]FIP[/TH] [TH=align: center]ERA+[/TH] [TH=align: center]BA[/TH] [TH=align: center]OBP[/TH] [TH=align: center]SLG[/TH] [TH=align: center]OPS[/TH] [TH=align: center]OPS+[/TH] [TD=align: right]1[/TD] [TD=align: left]Carlos Silva[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.43[/TD] [TD=align: left]2005[/TD] [TD=align: right]26[/TD] [TD=align: left]MIN[/TD] [TD=align: right]27[/TD] [TD=align: right]9[/TD] [TD=align: right]8[/TD] [TD=align: right]188.1[/TD] [TD=align: right]212[/TD] [TD=align: right]72[/TD] [TD=align: right]9[/TD] [TD=align: right]71[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.44[/TD] [TD=align: right]4.18[/TD] [TD=align: right]130[/TD] [TD=align: right].290[/TD] [TD=align: right].300[/TD] [TD=align: right].441[/TD] [TD=align: right].741[/TD] [TD=align: right]93[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [TD=align: left]Bret Saberhagen[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.66[/TD] [TD=align: left]1994[/TD] [TD=align: right]30[/TD] [TD=align: left]NYM[/TD] [TD=align: right]24[/TD] [TD=align: right]14[/TD] [TD=align: right]4[/TD] [TD=align: right]177.1[/TD] [TD=align: right]169[/TD] [TD=align: right]54[/TD] [TD=align: right]13[/TD] [TD=align: right]143[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.74[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.76[/TD] [TD=align: right]153[/TD] [TD=align: right].254[/TD] [TD=align: right].271[/TD] [TD=align: right].389[/TD] [TD=align: right].660[/TD] [TD=align: right]75[/TD] [TD=align: right]3[/TD] [TD=align: left]Cliff Lee[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.76[/TD] [TD=align: left]2010[/TD] [TD=align: right]31[/TD] [TD=align: left]TOT[/TD] [TD=align: right]28[/TD] [TD=align: right]12[/TD] [TD=align: right]9[/TD] [TD=align: right]212.1[/TD] [TD=align: right]195[/TD] [TD=align: right]75[/TD] [TD=align: right]18[/TD] [TD=align: right]185[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.18[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.58[/TD] [TD=align: right]133[/TD] [TD=align: right].240[/TD] [TD=align: right].255[/TD] [TD=align: right].363[/TD] [TD=align: right].618[/TD] [TD=align: right]66[/TD] [TD=align: right]4[/TD] [TD=align: left]Bob Tewksbury[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.77[/TD] [TD=align: left]1992[/TD] [TD=align: right]31[/TD] [TD=align: left]STL[/TD] [TD=align: right]32[/TD] [TD=align: right]16[/TD] [TD=align: right]5[/TD] [TD=align: right]233.0[/TD] [TD=align: right]217[/TD] [TD=align: right]56[/TD] [TD=align: right]20[/TD] [TD=align: right]91[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.16[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.13[/TD] [TD=align: right]158[/TD] [TD=align: right].248[/TD] [TD=align: right].265[/TD] [TD=align: right].353[/TD] [TD=align: right].618[/TD] [TD=align: right]81[/TD] [TD=align: right]5[/TD] [TD=align: left]Greg Maddux[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.77[/TD] [TD=align: left]1997[/TD] [TD=align: right]31[/TD] [TD=align: left]ATL[/TD] [TD=align: right]33[/TD] [TD=align: right]19[/TD] [TD=align: right]4[/TD] [TD=align: right]232.2[/TD] [TD=align: right]200[/TD] [TD=align: right]57[/TD] [TD=align: right]20[/TD] [TD=align: right]177[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.20[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.43[/TD] [TD=align: right]189[/TD] [TD=align: right].236[/TD] [TD=align: right].256[/TD] [TD=align: right].311[/TD] [TD=align: right].567[/TD] [TD=align: right]50[/TD] [TD=align: right]6[/TD] [TD=align: left]Bob Tewksbury[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.84[/TD] [TD=align: left]1993[/TD] [TD=align: right]32[/TD] [TD=align: left]STL[/TD] [TD=align: right]32[/TD] [TD=align: right]17[/TD] [TD=align: right]10[/TD] [TD=align: right]213.2[/TD] [TD=align: right]258[/TD] [TD=align: right]91[/TD] [TD=align: right]20[/TD] [TD=align: right]97[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.83[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.36[/TD] [TD=align: right]103[/TD] [TD=align: right].301[/TD] [TD=align: right].318[/TD] [TD=align: right].412[/TD] [TD=align: right].730[/TD] [TD=align: right]102[/TD] [TD=align: right]7[/TD] [TD=align: left]David Wells[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.85[/TD] [TD=align: left]2003[/TD] [TD=align: right]40[/TD] [TD=align: left]NYY[/TD] [TD=align: right]30[/TD] [TD=align: right]15[/TD] [TD=align: right]7[/TD] [TD=align: right]213.0[/TD] [TD=align: right]242[/TD] [TD=align: right]98[/TD] [TD=align: right]20[/TD] [TD=align: right]101[/TD] [TD=align: right]4.14[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.94[/TD] [TD=align: right]106[/TD] [TD=align: right].286[/TD] [TD=align: right].306[/TD] [TD=align: right].442[/TD] [TD=align: right].749[/TD] [TD=align: right]96[/TD] [TD=align: right]8[/TD] [TD=align: left]LaMarr Hoyt[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.86[/TD] [TD=align: left]1985[/TD] [TD=align: right]30[/TD] [TD=align: left]SDP[/TD] [TD=align: right]31[/TD] [TD=align: right]16[/TD] [TD=align: right]8[/TD] [TD=align: right]210.1[/TD] [TD=align: right]210[/TD] [TD=align: right]81[/TD] [TD=align: right]20[/TD] [TD=align: right]83[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.47[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.44[/TD] [TD=align: right]102[/TD] [TD=align: right].261[/TD] [TD=align: right].280[/TD] [TD=align: right].386[/TD] [TD=align: right].666[/TD] [TD=align: right]91[/TD] [TD=align: right]9[/TD] [TD=align: left]Phil Hughes[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.87[/TD] [TD=align: left]2014[/TD] [TD=align: right]28[/TD] [TD=align: left]MIN[/TD] [TD=align: right]16[/TD] [TD=align: right]8[/TD] [TD=align: right]4[/TD] [TD=align: right]103.0[/TD] [TD=align: right]110[/TD] [TD=align: right]41[/TD] [TD=align: right]10[/TD] [TD=align: right]88[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.58[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.60[/TD] [TD=align: right]112[/TD] [TD=align: right].273[/TD] [TD=align: right].289[/TD] [TD=align: right].397[/TD] [TD=align: right].686[/TD] [TD=align: right]91[/TD] [TD=align: right]10[/TD] [TD=align: left]Jon Lieber[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.92[/TD] [TD=align: left]2004[/TD] [TD=align: right]34[/TD] [TD=align: left]NYY[/TD] [TD=align: right]27[/TD] [TD=align: right]14[/TD] [TD=align: right]8[/TD] [TD=align: right]176.2[/TD] [TD=align: right]216[/TD] [TD=align: right]85[/TD] [TD=align: right]18[/TD] [TD=align: right]102[/TD] [TD=align: right]4.33[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.71[/TD] [TD=align: right]104[/TD] [TD=align: right].301[/TD] [TD=align: right].317[/TD] [TD=align: right].442[/TD] [TD=align: right].758[/TD] [TD=align: right]97[/TD] [TD=align: right]11[/TD] [TD=align: left]David Wells[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.92[/TD] [TD=align: left]2004[/TD] [TD=align: right]41[/TD] [TD=align: left]SDP[/TD] [TD=align: right]31[/TD] [TD=align: right]12[/TD] [TD=align: right]8[/TD] [TD=align: right]195.2[/TD] [TD=align: right]203[/TD] [TD=align: right]81[/TD] [TD=align: right]20[/TD] [TD=align: right]101[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.73[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.88[/TD] [TD=align: right]104[/TD] [TD=align: right].266[/TD] [TD=align: right].285[/TD] [TD=align: right].410[/TD] [TD=align: right].694[/TD] [TD=align: right]89[/TD] [TD=align: right]12[/TD] [TD=align: left]Greg Maddux[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.99[/TD] [TD=align: left]1995[/TD] [TD=align: right]29[/TD] [TD=align: left]ATL[/TD] [TD=align: right]28[/TD] [TD=align: right]19[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [TD=align: right]209.2[/TD] [TD=align: right]147[/TD] [TD=align: right]38[/TD] [TD=align: right]23[/TD] [TD=align: right]181[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.63[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.26[/TD] [TD=align: right]260[/TD] [TD=align: right].197[/TD] [TD=align: right].224[/TD] [TD=align: right].258[/TD] [TD=align: right].482[/TD] [TD=align: right]29[/TD] [/TABLE] Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used Generated 6/29/2014. Phil Hughes is doing something borderline historic this season. Only eight pitchers have qualified for the ERA title and posted a lower BB/9 in a season (since 1961). Obviously, this season is only roughly halfway over and Hughes has a lot of innings left to throw, but it's still crazy just how great he has been at limiting walks. It's still shocking to see Carlos Silva at the top of that list. Hughes already has more strikeouts this season than Silva had that season. Wild. Wait, no, not wild. In control, but wild. The other wild. Get Excited About a Prospect - Nate Roberts Roberts is not a household name, like say, Coke or Tide, but he is a very intriguing baseball player. He returned to action last week after missing roughly 45 seasons due to injury. Roberts is so interesting because he's an absolute Minor League OBP Machine. His career OBP is over .440, just a ridiculous number even for an older guy at lower levels. Baseball karma owes this guy some good fortune, so I'm just going to hop headfirst onto his bandwagon. Even if he makes his MLB debut at 50, I bet he'll walk in his first plate appearance. AIM Chat with 12-Year-Old Brad http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-jLn2X8agM74/U6-IBFxK91I/AAAAAAAABhU/Kyp1hjtG5_0/s1600/aimtop.png KPuckFan34123456: Hey Future Brad. BSwanson0928: Oh hey, I don't have a lot of time, I have to go to the Twins game. KPuckFan34123456: Oh fun, lucky! BSwanson0928: Eh, I guess. KPuckFan34123456: You aren't excited? BSwanson0928: Well, it's a work night and traffic is awful and I'll have to walk from the ramp or pay a lot. KPuckFan34123456: But you get to go to the game. BSwanson0928: Well, yeah, but it's not that great. KPuckFan34123456: Why not? I love going to the Dome. BSwanson0928: Well, the Dome is gone, it was replaced with Target Field, an outdoor stadium. KPuckFan34123456: Oh, even better! Isn't it really nice outside in June? BSwanson0928: Eh, it's a little hot, sometimes buggy. It might be a little too sunny too. KPuckFan34123456: Sounds rough... BSwanson0928: Are you being sarcastic? Do 12-year-olds use sarcasm? KPuckFan34123456: It's just lame that you're being lame about going to a baseball game. I wish I was going to a game tonight. BSwanson0928: You'll learn new adjectives soon. Well, it's different when you're older. KPuckFan34123456: Why? Do I start to not like baseball? BSwanson0928: No, I still like baseball a lot. I write about it like three times a week. KPuckFan34123456: You'd rather write about it than go to a game. You're weird. I'm going to be weird. BSwanson0928: I'm probably being a baby. It will be fun once I get there. It always is. KPuckFan34123456: Always, how often do you go? BSwanson0928: 4-5 games a year, although in college I went to like 15-20 games a year. KPuckFan34123456: College sounds fun. We had a math test today. It was easy. BSwanson0928: Math is cool. KPuckFan34123456: No it isn't. I'm going to go now. Have fun at the game. BSwanson0928: Thanks, I will. http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-d6WkUdiwjpg/U6-H52vC6oI/AAAAAAAABhM/mUBxOa0S3wg/s1600/aimbottom.png Random Baseball Card from the Past - David Arias I think I figured out why David Ortiz didn't become Big Papi with the Twins. http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Jl4LFDWicms/U6-OrjenDeI/AAAAAAAABhs/jR-Z1PZbSt0/s1600/david+arias.jpg It's one thing to keep the bat on your shoulder, it's another thing to keep the bat near both shoulders. Plus, that's a great way to break a finger. This card is either shockingly expensive (like $30!), or I don't know how much cards are worth. For the record, I have no clue how to re-size a photo here. I wish I could make this bigger. Plugging My Way - Brian Dozier is interesting Last week, I wrote about Brian Dozier and what a handso...I mean interesting man he is. Statistically, he's having a good, but super weird season. If you want more details, just click here. Also, I may have uncovered the fact that Brian Dozier is Mike Schmidt. This would be a pretty big discovery. Parting Thought The Twins are awful on the road lately. They return home for this week and I hope they can pick up a lot of wins. The Royals have cooled off and the Yankees are hardly scary, but it's still two winning teams coming to town. If the Twins have any ambition of being in the Wild Card race, they need to have a great week. I hope you have a great week too!

Thanks, i really appreciate that! For the record, I don't care which time zone we use so long as everything I enjoy starts right around the time I get my baby to go to sleep and ends when I get tired. I'm not greedy.

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I would completely agree that it is too early to pull the plug on Nolasco, but my worry is that too early will transition to too late and the Twins won't make a change. I hope this will not happen, but it seems like a reasonable concern. I would remove/replace the starters in the following order: 1. Deduno (mostly because I think he could provide value in the bullpen) 2. Correia 3. Nolasco As for Eduardo Escobar... He's fun to watch.

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Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! Weekend Recap The series started good but ended up doing poorly. Kyle Gibson was excellent on Friday, but Sam Deduno and Ricky Nolasco got boomed like dynamite. Oh well, losing 2 of 3 in Detroit would have to fall into the "expected" category. Who did stuff that was notable? Let's find out! Ricky Nolasco On May 28, I asked if we should be worried about Ricky Nolasco. Since that day, Nolasco has made four starts. He's thrown 24 innings, given up 12 earned runs, 29 hits and 8 walks. He also has 21 strikeouts in that span, but his ERA is still 5.66 right now. I'll go ahead and answer my original question: yes, we should be worried about Ricky Nolasco. My biggest concern is that the Twins will be very slow to yank him from the rotation if he continues to struggle. Nolasco has been durable and inconsistent for basically his entire career. The Twins can rely on him to make his starts, but if better options are present, should they want that reliability? Nolasco is under contract for three more seasons after 2014 and I imagine he'll get many opportunities to improve his performance. I think this is justifiable, but at some point, the Twins have to examine the sunk cost and determine if there are pitchers in the organization who give the team a better chance to win. I'm not sure we're at the point of replacing Nolasco. That said, if Kyle Gibson was having Ricky Nolasco's season, is there any doubt that Gibson would be in Rochester? it's not a perfect hypothetical, but it's interesting to consider. Trevor Plouffe/Deibinson Romero Trevor Plouffe is on the disabled list with what MLB At-Bat referred to as a "side injury." An injury to an entire side sounds extremely painful, although I have no idea how one injures an entire side without slipping on ice, flying into the air and landing completely on your side. You know what, I can't really describe it in words, here's a picture: http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Ucy2HvJxtMM/U54KrFgZ-PI/AAAAAAAABfU/D-bMu2AO1Sk/s1600/sidecomic.png That looks bad. It sounds like he could miss significant time. It's a shame because Plouffe has hit pretty well this year (100 OPS+, exactly league-average) and he was placed on the DL on his 28th birthday. The Twins recalled Pedro Florimon to take his place and he'll slot in on the bench where the fact that he won't get any hits is expected because you're not allowed to get hits when you are on the bench. The Twins do have a third baseman at Rochester who could have taken Plouffe's spot quite nicely. Deibinson Romero has been in the organization since 2006. He's slowly climbed through the Minors and he's batting .310/.406/.452 in 62 games with Rochester this year (through Satuday). Romero isn't on the 40-man roster, so that might be the justification, but it seems that if Romero isn't getting his chance in this tailor-made situation, he may never get a chance with the Twins. Too bad, I'd be interested to see if he could translate some of his MiLB OBP skills to the Majors. Josh Willingham I was looking forward to Willingham's return from injury, mostly because I wanted to see how much he had left in the tank. I hoped he would hit for some power and become a trade chip at the deadline. Now, I might lean toward bringing him back for a season or two. Willingham displays "old player skills" in that he draws walks and hits for power. These are skills that older players can maintain if they maintain health. Obviously, Willingham is a health risk, but if he were to sign at a decent number and agree to move to DH, he could be a useful piece as the Twins transition in more young players. We know his power plays at Target Field and he likes playing in Minnesota. It seems like a good fit. That said, if someone offers a good prospect at the deadline, I'd take it and hope the love we let go finds his way back home. It would be so poetic. Former Twin Update - Vance Worley Vance Worley returned to the Majors on Sunday and because it is apparently super fun to troll Twins fans, he decided to have an awesome debut. Worley went seven innings, allowed zero runs on five hits with five strikeouts and no walks. Frick. It's just one start to I'm going to resist the impulse to throw my horn-rimmed glasses through the window, but a Worley success story would be about as frustrating as any former Twin finding success elsewhere. Worley legitimately gave the Twins no reason to put him in the MLB rotation after Spring Training. They got him through waivers near the end of Spring Training and could have used him in AAA. Instead, they sold him to Pittsburgh. Yes, the team that everyone rips for being cheap actually sold a player for money because they also apparently like to troll Twins fans. The reason they sold him (beyond cash being fun and the perfect way to buy stuff)? The Rochester rotation would have been too crowded. Scott Diamond has a 6.94 ERA with Rochester. The rotation was just too crowded! I don't think Worley turns into anything truly special, but he's just 26 and he would have been an interesting choice to replace one of the ineffective Twins' starters. Worley is one month older than Kyle Gibson. One month. Fun Stat - Nolasco's "Adjustments" I can't remember where I found this stat, but I'm going to share it anyway: MLB Leaders for most times adjusting pants: Ricky Nolasco - 25,000 Everyone else - much less Interesting. I noticed that he adjusts his pants a lot, but I had no idea how elite he truly was. Random Animation Is it time to replace Sam Deduno with Trevor May? Perhaps this creepy animation will help me express my feelings on the subject: http://1.bp.blogspot.com/--jqVxfdmu1k/U54Lg8msDdI/AAAAAAAABfc/2iL-PsX3cdY/s1600/dedunotomay.gif 2 things - I promise not to do that again and Sam Deduno's head is bigger than Trevor May's. That part isn't my fault. KWL Chart - Kendrys Morales http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-KIHPYZ0-0sU/U54Ll1DjboI/AAAAAAAABfk/6kVEchYIS34/s1600/KWL+Morales.png Pro-tip: Click it and it gets bigger. Baseball Card of the Week In honor of the Twins facing Joe Nathan this past weekend, here is an early Nathan baseball card: http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-vFx9UzmuJw8/U54LunEVmCI/AAAAAAAABfs/1vTMs4ltg4Y/s1600/nathan+rookie.jpg This was from the era when Fleer was trying to capture what baseball would be like if every player was constantly zoned out and looking off into space. Plugging My Way Last week, I wrote about Joe Mauer's historic slump. I looked at the number of players who performed as well or better than Mauer through age 30 and how they performed from 31 and on. I think the "research" is somewhat interesting, so here's the link for anyone who likes things that are "interesting." In addition, check back on Friday as I will examine how the present would be different if the Twins had drafted Mark Prior instead of Joe Mauer back in 2001. I'm taking a slightly different perspective, so be sure to check it out! Parting Thought The Twins head to Boston this week, which means non-stop reminders that David Ortiz hated playing in Minnesota. I'll be honest, it's gotten stale. Maybe he should start talking about how much he hates Seattle. They gave up on him first! They traded him for Dave Hollins! Anyway, I hope Ortiz hits fewer than four home runs in this series, because watching him round the bases for 45 minutes is not how I want to spend my weeknights. Have a great week, everyone!

I don't know, I have a really hard time getting behind questioning a player's personality. There are numerous examples of players with an even keel who perform at a very high level. I think it's easy to take a struggling player and try to use their personality as an excuse or a rationale, but I think it usually falls pretty flat. Put it this way, if we swapped Arcia's and Hicks' production right now, there would be many who would be praising Hicks for his calm approach while ripping Arcia for being overly aggressive and immature. It's easy to pin a personality issue on someone when they're down. The reality is that Hicks might not be a good hitter because he isn't a good hitter. Everyone called him a 5-tool player, but he never really had the hit tool down. Without that tool, it's hard to fully utilize power and speed. Now, he's a two-tool player who isn't hitting enough to get MLB experience in the outfield. There are plenty of reasons why Hicks isn't playing well, but I don't think it's fair at all to use his personality as one of those reasons. Sadly, it seems the Twins do have some issue with his personality. If that is the case, maybe they should try to understand their player better rather than chastise him for being who he is.

Yeah, anytime your first name is part of your last name, you win. That's why I legally changed my name to Brad Bradville.

I would echo the need for real analysis. I know Bleacher Report has some stuff out, but I'm not always a fan of their stuff. I think Baseball America has reports, but it's behind the pay wall. You can always read scouting reports of most high-round players at MLB.com: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2014/drafttracker.jsp#ft=team&fv=min

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There are a lot of great points here. I wish I could address them all. I think that Nolasco has been part bad, part unlucky, part a product of his situation and part who he has always been. I'm optimistic that he can be a 200-inning, 4.50 ERA pitcher for a few years. I was hoping for more when he signed, but his second half with the Dodgers (and in their very forgiving stadium) clouded my judgment. I do like h2oface's comment about small samples. Just because we can't use them to predict anything, doesn't mean they don't have some value. If nothing else, they tell us what happened and that's something.

Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! The Twins made a big splash back in December, signing Ricky Nolasco to a 4 year, $49 million contract with a team option for a fifth year. It was the largest contract the Twins had given during free agency and it marked a change in philosophy related to building a team. The Twins were no longer going to simply rely on home-grown talent and smaller signings. They wanted to sign a player who could lead their rotation for a couple of years while guys with more talent, but less experience ready themselves for the Majors. Two months into the season and Nolasco has a 6.12 ERA and 1.575 WHIP in ten starts. He had a 3.70 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 33 starts in 2013. What happened? Some posit that Nolasco will heat up as the weather improves. Of course, that is just a narrative. It was pretty nice on Sunday and he got rocked. Nolasco pitched a gem in his third start as a Twin, throwing eight innings of one-run baseball in 50-degree temperature. If convenient narratives won't help us figure out if we should be worried, perhaps we could look to...stats?!? I know, stats are for nerds. In some cases, using these nerdy stats, we can figure out if a player is as bad as they seem. In the case of Nolasco, there are some interesting stats that point in many different directions. I broke them into a few categories. Split Stats Before we get too deep into our analysis, let me just state that Nolasco has been better in May. Take a look at this chart that compares April and May: [TABLE=class: grid, width: 440] [/TD][TD]ERA FIP xFIP WHIP K% BB% HR/FB% BABIP LOB% GB% April 6.67 5.27 4.66 1.75 9.7 6.7 13.9 0.355 66.7 50.5 May 5.58 4.09 3.79 1.4 20.5 5.3 11.6 0.333 66.7 31.6 Career 4.45 3.8 3.77 1.3 19.1 5.5 10.4 0.309 68.6 41.7 [/TABLE] He hasn't been outstanding in May, but most of the important indicator stats have improved since a pretty awful April. That said, there are still some individual stats that will give us a better understanding of how an effective pitcher in 2013 became a volcano of misery in 2014. Ok, that's a bit dramatic. How about a science fair volcano of misery? Luck Stats Home run-to-fly ball ratio (HR/FB%) measures how frequently a fly ball becomes a home run. Research has shown that pitchers (and batters for that matter) tend to have their own rate at which fly balls become home runs. When the figure deviates, there's some luck at play. Nolasco has a career mark of 10.4%, just about average in the Majors. When that rate is four points higher than usual, it means that an extra 4% of fly balls go over the fence instead of nestling softly in a glove. In raw numbers, we're talking about one extra home run per month, but it still makes a difference. BABIP is another luck-based stat where a player sets their own baseline. Nolasco's BABIP is quite out of line with his career mark. In April it was really high and in May it's been just quite high. Those figures aren't doing him a lot of favors, and it was especially unforgiving in April because his strikeout rate was very low and thus more balls were being put in play. Again, the raw numbers might only get us to four or five more hits that Nolasco gave up as a result of his high BABIP, but again, every little bit counts. Even if these stats only account for a small amount of Nolasco's bad performance, they do matter. These two stats point toward some bad luck for Nolasco and thus, we shouldn't worry too much. Of course, these aren't the only stats that matter. Skill Stats Can someone remind me, is a giant drop in strikeout rate good or bad for a pitcher? Without my baseball encyclopedia handy, I'll just have to assume it's a bad thing. That ten point drop in strikeout rate could be explained a lot of different ways: not hitting spots, trying to involve infielders, Rick Anderson is Satan, etc. Whatever the reasons behind the drop, the drop itself was very troubling. While Nolasco hasn't been much better in May, the return of his strikeout rate is a good sign for the future. His walk rate has been pretty stable. However, Nolasco has always had great ability to limit walks but it didn't always (or even frequently) translate to a great ability to limit runs. So, we can be pleased about his walk rate, but it hasn't been a great indicator of his success in the past either. Bummer. These skill-based stats explain a lot in April. Nolasco's ability to strike out batters almost completely vanished in April. It was almost as if he was being threatened by Kevin Correia or something. When the rate returned in May, he was better, although the luck-based stats were still not in his favor. Again, these things appear to be positive going forward. Although, there are a few more stats to look at. Shoulder Shrug Stats LOB% or left on-base percentage (I call it strand rate just for further confusion) is a stat that calculates the percentage of baserunners left on base by the pitcher. This is another stat that has an individual baseline. Nolasco's strand rate is lower than his career figure, but not by much. The discrepancy may account for some of his struggles, but not much. The shoulder shrug comes in when you look at his career figure compared to the typical league average, which usually comes in around 73-74%. Why does Nolasco strand runners so poorly? Who knows, but I doubt he figures it out at this stage of his career. Nolasco's ground ball rate is all over the place, so who knows what to think so far. His season figure is in line with his career rate, but his career rate isn't all that great. He had seen his ground ball rate rise to respectable territory from 2010-2012, but it has dropped back down in the past two seasons. I don't think the Twins can rely on Nolasco to be a ground ball specialist at this point. That said, with a decent defense behind him, a fly ball pitcher can have success. Do the Twins have a decent outfield defense? Well, come on, you know the answer to that. xFIP or expected fielder-independent pitching is a great way to look at how a pitcher would have performed if we lived in a perfect world where ballparks and home runs were normalized and puppies and kitties flowed out of water faucets but we still had access to water in other ways. Nolasco's xFIP looks great, as it always does, but that hasn't really helped Nolasco in the actual performance department. If the Twins thought this would be different in Minnesota, I have a water faucet to sell them. Shoulder shrug. Finally, there doesn't appear to be anything related to his repertoire that is hurting his performance. His velocity is right in line with the past couple seasons and he's not throwing anything too much more or less than he threw it before. His stuff is the same but his results have been poor. I guess that, more than anything, is a reason to be optimistic. Conclusion Of course, this all falls into the small sample size realm where we aren't allowed to draw any conclusions ever. However, these stats all exist and while they don't really tell us anything going forward, they can explain why things happened the way they did. His strikeout and walk rates are more in line with his career average, but his ground ball rate, home run-to-fly ball rate and BABIP are out of line. This could explain some of the discrepancy between his April/May and career ERAs. While no single stat explained a huge portion of his struggles, when you add up all the little bits, it kind of starts to make sense. Think of it this way. If someone gave me just one slice of pizza, it would barely fill me up. If I had six slices of pizza, I'd be comatose on the couch with sauce on my face and my shirt off. Ricky Nolasco is dealing with the equivalent of six slices of pizza. Think about it. I'm not sure Nolasco will ever be worth the contract he was given, but I feel pretty confident that he will perform better going forward than he has thus far. But then, I live in a puppy/kitty faucet, shirtless, covered in pizza sauce kind of world.

Knoblauch was on a borderline HOF path himself through age 28. Nearly 40 WAR, excellent defender, excellent baserunner, underrated hitter. Then it all fell apart. I was firmly in the Mauer is a HOF player camp going into last season, but I also thought he'd stay at catcher for at least a few more seasons. Now, I'm not sure he will make the Hall.

I love this idea. If we're going to pursue a stop-gap solution, why not try for a cultural icon?

I think Beltre has the potential to become the next generation's Tim Raines. Very deserving, not a slam dunk, but tons of support from the stat-friendly community. Personally, I think he's one of the best defensive players I've ever seen, so if he can keep up his recent offensive production for a couple more seasons, I'd vote for him.

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Cake ball, frosting ball, ball ball, whatever. Just so long as a colorful explosion of something occurs at random, I'm in.