Brad Swanson

Does MLB offer their teams refunds for entire series? Can an MLB team get a "do over" on the first series out of a break? If a tree falls in the woods, could it possibly join the Twins' lineup and produce a few hits? Is suckatude a word? Oswaldo Arcia Arcia went 0-4 on Friday night, sat against a tough lefty on Saturday and then returned on Sunday with another 0-3, this time with two strikeouts and he was pinch hit for in the 8th inning. Arcia is clearly not producing as many had hoped. I predicted 55 extra-base hits from him in 2014! Instead, he has 13 and the way he's been hitting, I wonder if he reaches 25 by the end of the season. I still believe that there are reasons to be optimistic about Arica. His walk rate has improved, his strikeout rate is slightly down. He's hitting more line drives and fewer ground balls. I would hope that he's in the lineup just about every single day going forward. I don't think sending him to AAA does him any good at this point. He has a .999 OPS in AAA. The Twins have sent him down with the hope that he'll mash AAA and bring that confidence or whatever with him to Minnesota. It hasn't worked. For now, they need to brute force this slump. He needs to play until he breaks out of it. He's too talented to slump forever. Phil Hughes Hughes had another rough start on Saturday, giving up five earned runs over seven innings, picking up his sixth loss on the season. Over his last six starts, Hughes has a 6.34 ERA. In 38.1 innings over those six starts, he has 31 strikeouts to just 4 walks. Not bad. Unfortunately, he's given up a shocking 56 hits over those starts. Even in his one good start during this stretch he gave up eight hits. His BABIP during those six starts is .421, both incredibly high and highly unsustainable. Basically, Hughes is going through a rough patch, but he should be able to ride it out. Back on April 20, when his ERA was 6.43, his BABIP was .394. In the ten starts in the middle, his BABIP was .286 and his ERA was 2.08. It sucks that his ERA has spiked by nearly a run over his last six starts, but I wouldn't be too surprised to see it down in the low 3s again by the end of the season, especially if he keeps his strikeout and walk rates where they've basically been all year. Optimism Fading I try hard to be optimistic with the Twins. I predicted (read: hoped for) a 75-win season. I'm willing to concede that they are highly unlikely to reach that win total. The offense goes cold for weeks at a time, the starting pitching is very inconsistent and what does a bullpen matter when the score is 5-1 after 4 innings? I greatly hope that the Twins don't completely fall apart in August and September again. While I don't think they have the talent to reach 75 wins, I really don't want to sit through another 4-25 April. I'd like to see some young players get time later in the season, but hopefully the few veterans who will remain can keep things together and win some games. I'm tired of being in the "draft slot derby" in September. I'd like to see the team finish respectably. Former Twin Update - Alexi Casilla If you're wondering why we haven't heard much about Sexi Lexi this season, it's because he's spent his season with Baltimore's AAA team. Well, at least the parts of the season when he's been healthy. It's been a rough year for Casilla, as he hyperextended his knee in May and missed a bunch of time and now he's pretty much out for the season with a broken hamate bone. It's a shame because I always liked Casilla, even if his performance didn't merit my affection. I'll likely always gravitate toward the short middle infielders because that was who I was when I played ball once upon a time. Plus, we both have spaces in the middle of our front teeth. Also, he was awesome. Just ignore his 73 OPS+ in seven seasons with the Twins; he was awesome. Fun Stat - 4th Starters Did you know that teams who have paid more than $100,000 per start to their fourth starter have a collective winning percentage of .481? Did you know that teams who have paid less than $100,000 per start to their fourth starter have a collective winning percentage of .528? Why is this important? Well, the Twins happen to have a young pitcher who many have predicted for the fourth starter role. This particular pitcher is nearly MLB-ready (or already MLB-ready, depending on who you ask) and has been very durable in his minor league career. In addition, by way of being young, he will be very cheap and should easily make less than $100,000 per start when he hits the Majors. I'm going to expand on this in a post on Wednesday, as I have a whole mess of data and analysis related to Trevor May to share. Check back on Wednesday! Cliffhanger! Baseball Card from the Past Yep, Rickey Henderson often batted while sitting on six stolen bases. You probably forgot about that. All-Star Game Recap! As I mentioned roughly 4 million times, I attended the All-Star Game on Tuesday. In my American League midseason award and predictions column (click here if you missed it), I wrote about how I reacted to a fan who said Mike Trout was overrated. In addition to that blow-up, I also became irate when I dropped my turkey sandwich. Seriously, I traversed roughly 30,000 people and 10,000 people looking backward in complete confusion to get to my seat, then I dropped my tantalizing sandwich. Make no mistake, I went back and got another one. It had cajun seasoning and sweet and spicy BBQ sauce. I made the right choice. Oh, the game was fun too. I think Derek Jeter won. Poll Results Last month, I posted a poll with a simple question - When will the Twins make the playoffs next? Here are the results: 2014 - 2 votes 2015 - 20 votes 2016 - 17 votes 2017 - 4 votes 2018 - 3 votes A depressingly long time from now - 10 votes To be fair, the last one could overlap with a couple of the other options. I voted for 2016, a year later than my original projection from before this season. The two who voted for 2014 are incredible. I would like to be their friend. I did post a new poll, so check out my blog and vote. It's what cool kids do. Plugging My Way Well, I already plugged my AL midseason award post, so for the sake of symmetry, here's my NL post as well: click here! If you're curious, I did not predict any awards correctly before the season and I did gutlessly change all of my predictions when given the chance. You should read it, it's fun! Parting Thought The second half of the season is not off to a great start. However, the Twins still have seven games at home to try to pull things together. Of course, they'd almost have to win six of seven to really have a successful homestand. I'm just going to assume that won't happen. At the end of the homestand, the trading deadline will be nearly upon us. The sweep from the Rays to start the second half might have been the best thing for the "fire sale" crowd and the worst thing for the "buy it now" crowd. I'm in neither camp, so I'll just chill. Have a nice week, everyone! Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed!

Weekend Recap Hey, two series wins in a row. The Twins out-slugged the slugging Rockies over the weekend, pulling to within six games of .500 with a ten-game homestand on the other end of the All-Star Break. They received a pretty balanced attack from their offense as just about every player contributed in some way. The offense has been so poor recently, perhaps this is a glimpse of what is to come in the second half. We can hope, right? Kevin Correia I'm starting to wonder if the Twins should hang on to Correia for the rest of the season. With Ricky Nolasco out indefinitely, Sam Deduno better suited for the bullpen, Yohan Pino and Kris Johnson mediocre at best and Mike Pelfrey donated to Derek Jeter, the Twins might need Correia for the remainder of the season. This is counter to basically everything I have written about Correia this season, but I can't argue with his results over the last two months. Since his poor start against Boston on May 14, Correia has made eleven very solid starts, posting a 3.22 ERA and averaging just over six innings per start. It's easy to dismiss a couple good starts, but eleven? Even if the Twins decide to promote Alex Meyer and Trevor May, they still have room for Correia. When you consider that Meyer might pass his innings limit by September, Correia may be needed even if Nolasco returns in August. I'm all for giving younger players opportunity, but I'm not convinced that Pino, Johnson or Logan Darnell can out-produce Correia for the remainder of 2014. Of course, my entire perspective changes if the Twins are offered a good prospect for Correia. Then, I'll finally get my Yohan Pino shirsey. Even with Correia's improved performance, I'm not sure that a team will offer a good prospect. Jared Burton Burton's ERA is down to 4.82. That's pretty good. Since May 1, Burton has an ERA of 3.49 and his strikeout-to-walk ratio is 3.33. He hasn't been dominant like he was in 2012, but he's been steady like he was in 2013. I'm not on the "release Burton" bandwagon, as I think he might be the Twins' second most talented right-handed reliever on the roster. Releasing Burton would hurt the bullpen, so the Twins should hang on to him. I'd still like to see Michael Tonkin join the Twins very soon, but I don't feel Burton is the player to swap him out for. Josh Willingham In 2013 and 2014, Willingham has batted .209/.347/.381, good for a 102 OPS+. Willingham has been better in 2014, getting on base more and providing more power. His batting average is insanely low, but his BABIP is freakishly low too. His line drive rate is about four percentage points below his career-average and his ground ball rate is nearly nine percentage points below his average. Willingham's bad luck is going to become the Twins' bad luck if they are serious about trading him. It would be fantastic if Willingham could receive some positive baseball karma. He's been injured a lot recently, his luck stats are all going against him and he might get traded from a place that he really likes. Hopefully, he'll start to get some good luck, mash for a few weeks, get traded to a contender for a good prospect and then win a World Series. He seems like a legitimately good guy, so that would be the best-case scenario for all parties. Former Twin Update - Justin Morneau We failed. Morneau lost the Final Vote to Anthony Rizzo and will not be in the All-Star Game on Tuesday. As a result, I ripped up my tickets, baked them into a cherry pie and fed it to anyone in Minnesota who voted against Morneau. Congratulations! The better player defeated the better story. Whoopie! By the way, morons, you still got it wrong. If we were really going to take the best player, you got the wrong Anthony. Anthony Rendon has been better than Rizzo. Regardless, Morneau was cool enough to compete in the Home Run Derby and hopefully he wins. When he wins, I hope he melts down the trophy, bakes it into a cherry pie and feeds it to anyone in Minnesota who voted against him. Adieu Scott Diamond The Twins released Scott Diamond over the weekend, ending his Twins career. In a perfect world, he latches on with another team and puts together another MLB run. It's shocking how quickly his career fell apart. He was so good in 2012 but he couldn't sustain the one thing that he did at an elite level that season. When Diamond was able to Maddux everyone, he was great. When he was just simply "good" at limiting walks, he didn't have the same level of success. Alas, 2012 was fun and we'll always remember his flash of dominance. Random Top Five List - Fewest First Half Walks I am obsessed with Phil Hughes' ability to limit walks. While he has been getting hit around a bit lately, his elite walk rate should help him turn things around when the hits stop falling in. Here are the top five fewest walks in a first half in Twins' history (minimum 75 innings pitched): Carlos Silva - 2005 - 5 walks Brad Radke - 2005 - 10 walks Brad Radke - 2004 - 10 walks Bob Tewksbury - 1998 - 11 walks Phil Hughes - 2014 - 11 walks 2005 - "The Year of the No Walk." I have a way with words. Baseball Card from the Past This was my favorite baseball card as a kid. I started collecting around 1988, when I was five or six. I got the 1988 Topps complete set for Christmas and I opened it up and started sorting like a madman. The fact that there were two Kirby Puckett cards in the set blew my mind. I liked this card better because it was an All Star card. I always wanted to get this specific card signed, which sadly did not happen. However, I did accumulate about 25 copies of this card via trades, so at least I have a bunch of them somewhere. Futures Game Recap! Can Jose Berrios start the first game after the All-Star Break? Can he start every game? Seriously, that inning was impressive. It was one inning, but it was super impressive. Alex Meyer was impressive as well and he might actually be ready for the Majors in the near future. Before the 2013 season, the Twins had exactly zero impressive starting pitching prospects. Now, they have Meyer, Berrios, Kohl Stewart, Lewis Thorpe and Trevor May. Each seems likely to contribute and impress at some point in the future. This wasn't really a recap of the game, but the other players in the game aren't on my favorite team so I loathe them and hope their hair turns to snakes. That is, unless the Twins trade for one of them, then I hope for reverse hair snakes. Oh, Joey Gallo seems strong. All-Star Fan Fest Recap! My wife, daughter and I went to Fan Fest on Saturday. We arrived shortly before 7pm, right about when all the fun was beginning. It was an impressive display. There looked to be a lot of activities that a younger version of myself would have really enjoyed. There were batting cages, fielding drills, men writing their names on things, etc. My daughter isn't old enough to partake, although we did take her picture with the World's Largest Baseball. My wife also went 3 for 3 at trivia kiosks and won a couple prizes. She really wants me to give them away on the blog. Maybe in a few years when they hold absolutely zero value. Celebrity Softball Game Recap! Oh wait, I did not watch this. Parting Thoughts I am very excited for the All-Star Game on Tuesday. I feel fortunate to have the opportunity to attend in person. I have admitted in the past that the player intros are my favorite part, but if the game is exciting, I might enjoy the actual baseball just as much. Even if the game isn't exciting, I'll be very happy that I shelled out hard-earned dollars for tickets. It's the experience! I am also excited that the Twins enter the break having won 5 of 6. They might not make the playoffs in 2014, but they might play reasonably relevant games in September for the first time since 2010. It's funny how low my standards have fallen, but what can you do? Have a great week, everyone! Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed!

A mailbag on a Saturday? WHAAAAAAA? I know, I know, mailbags are for Fridays, but yesterday was Independence Day and that day deserves to be free from fake mailbags. In this installment, I have TWO actual questions! One is from a family member, but it still counts. Enough dilly-dallying, let's answer some questions. Escobar has been one of the most consistent bats in the lineup and boasts the 3rd highest OPS on the team. If Oswaldo Arcia can't find a way to produce by the time Plouffe returns from the DL, should Gardy consider playing Eddie in RF to keep his bat in the lineup? -Duncan An actual question! Send me something and I'll answer it. Thank you for your question, Duncan and thank you for being a big supporter of this blog! This question was sent about two weeks ago, and Escobar has cooled significantly since then. He is batting just .143/.163/.190 over the last 14 days. Even before that, I would have probably tried to keep Arcia in the lineup, just because I like his power potential and hairstyle. But so much has happened since I received this question! Plouffe and Eduardo Nunez are back. Danny Santana is hurt. Jorge Polanco was here and gone. Chris Parmelee is suddenly hitting. With Parmelee hitting, he fits nicely in right if Arcia doesn't start to produce. If Parmelee cools, Santana returns and Arcia isn't producing, I could see trying Escobar in right, provided he's hitting again. I like when managers try to move people around to see how it works. It never hurts to try to make your players and roster more versatile. Worst case, you put an infielder in the outfield and he can't find the warning track and the team loses. But, really, how often does that happen? The Twins have had a plethora of shortstops on the roster this year. Please rank the many shortstops in the order of your preference. Thank you, I really enjoy your 3:1 puns-to-analysis ratio. Brad S., St. Paul, MN 3:1 seems low, but thanks for the compliment! It's actually crazy to think that the Twins have had 6 different shortstop this year. That position has been a problem for the Twins for almost two decades and now they have some pretty impressive organizational depth. Here are my rankings for this year: Eduardo Escobar - The Eddie 400 has been a rousing success, even if Escobar has cooled off in recent weeks. Danny Santana - Would probably be number one if I wasn't so connected to the powerful Eddie 400 movement. Very exciting player to watch. Jorge Polanco - Would probably be number one if he wasn't still two years from regular MLB duty. Very exciting player to watch. Eduardo Nunez - Would probably be number one if he was better than the first three guys on the list. He seems like a nice guy. Pedro Florimon - What a disaster. A loyal reader suggested we create the "Florimon Abyss" for players who the "Mendoza Line" doesn't do justice. I love it. I'm in. Jason Bartlett - Yeah, remember this? All your anger about scholarships and country clubs is just rushing back! Derek Jeter is in town this week and I really want to get him something nice to celebrate his retirement. Can you suggest a gift or 10 for me? Thanks! Brad S., St. Paul, MN Wow, you are in luck! I literally wrote on this very subject yesterday! What a wonderful coincidence! Here's the link to that piece, complete with images of Jeter enjoying his new stuff. For the record, I would give him the 25 hand-drawn pictures. It would be an amazing spectacle. Hey Brad you think you're so smart about what the Twins need & how to build their team. What about all those rotten softball teams you played for & all along you knew someone close to you that was a career .700 hitter & classic #3 guy for his teams for 20 plus years. Yeah maybe he pulled his hammies often, usually both at the same time, but I still say I'm good for 5 runs a game. Dad S., St Paul, MN Another real question, from my actual Dad! I'm going to address this in a few parts: 1. One of those "rotten" teams won the Shoreview Slow-Pitch Co-Red D Softball League in 2010. I have the shirt to prove it; I got bleach on it. We won the championship game 2-0. A 2-0 shutout in slow-pitch! What a team! 2. I regret my decision to keep you off the team. What we really needed was veteran presence and I was too brash to know it at the time. There's a reason we moved to that Fall League and completely self-destructed. There's a reason we haven't played in that Shoreview League since winning the title. We didn't even defend! I couldn't get a team back together. That was on me. I was riding high after our title. I started referring to myself as "Rickey," I recorded that bluegrass album with one of the guys in Steely Dan, and I bought so many gold chains. My neck still hurts. I should have focused on our dynasty. What a monster. I have a follow-up to your Dad's question. Since you're such a super baseball genius who can't even plant a tree, what is the first thing you would you do if some moron decided to actually put you in charge of their baseball team? By the way, there's still a bunch of your lame stuff in our basement. Mom S., St. Paul MN Ok, that question might not be real. It is an excellent question, however. My very first move would be somewhat minor, but very impactful. I'd take a look around the proverbial room, see what I see, take it all in. Then I would get to work on organizing and designing my office. I always envisioned an entire wall of bookshelves, filled with all kinds of different books. I'd have a bunch of Vonnegut novels that I'd never finish, some baseball books that make me look smart, some books from other sports to give the appearance that I'm looking for new ideas and a whole mess of childrens' books to show that I have a playful/confusing side. You know what, let's just line three walls with bookshelves. I do need one wall for something else. Once the books are in place, a good desk is really important. L-shaped desks are popular because they add space, so I'd push two L-shaped desks into a square for maximum space. Sure, I'd have to crawl under by desk square every day, but that would be a fun thing for reporters to witness and hopefully comment on. Again, the playful/confusing side. Finally, I'd need something to write with and write on. That fourth wall would just be a giant chalkboard, a call-back to my previous position as a teacher where I never once used any chalk. I could get a bunch of that colored sidewalk chalk to write with. That way, every time I shake hands with someone, I would literally leave my mark in pink and purple chalk dust. Once my office is set, I'd probably DFA Mike Pelfrey just for kicks. The Twins are currently significantly below .500, but they're also within "striking distance" of the second (and first) Wild Card. With this being their reality, how should the team determine when they are buyers or sellers? Brad S., St. Paul, MN This requires a nuanced perspective, something I am not known for. The additional Wild Card basically keeps all non-Cubs teams in the race for much longer than they probably should be. Hypothetical scenario: The Twins tread water for the next week and enter the All-Star Break seven games under .500 and eight games back in the Wild Card standings. Technically, they're still in it, but does that mean they should start buying? I don't think they should. I mean, a couple of minor moves would be fine, but they shouldn't trade anyone of any prospect significance. The move they made for Eduardo Nunez earlier in the season would be a good barometer. Trading a low-level prospect for someone of value is always a good move. However, trading a top ten, or even top twenty prospect to upgrade the bullpen or outfield would be unwise. When it comes to selling, they don't have to go full "fire sale" mode. If the right deal comes along, they should take it. Most importantly, they shouldn't turn down a trade for one of their players because they're "still in it." Seven games under .500 is not really in it, even if they are only eight games back. I don't think this team is capable of playing 10-15 games over .500 in the second half, which is likely what they would need to do to actually win a Wild Card spot. Simply put, they aren't in a position to sacrifice the future for the present, even if it hurts for a few more months. Next year, they might be sitting at .500 in mid-July, just five games out. At that point, I'd be interested in doing some serious buying. Follow-up to that previous question. If the Twins do become sellers, who do you hope they trade? Thanks, I'm psychic. Mr. Magic, St. Paul, MN Wow, two follow-ups within something printed! History! My feeling is that no one should be untouchable. It really depends on who is being offered. For instance, I don't want the Twins to trade Phil Hughes. However, if the Nationals call and say "we're goin' fer it." and offer Lucas Giolito, the Twins have to take that offer. So while the Twins should keep players like Hughes, Glen Perkins and Brian Dozier to build around, you can't turn down the so-called "Godfather" offer. Of the more reasonable trade chips, I would be willing to part with everyone for the right price. Kurt Suzuki? Thanks for the surprising season! Josh Willingham? I enjoyed your home runs and outfield runs. Kendrys Morales? Maybe we can be pen pals. Kevin Correia? I hope the nightclub scene is great wherever you land. http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-IHxe91CxyP8/U7MDQdMo_3I/AAAAAAAABjQ/9eNFSBvADcI/s1600/CorreiaDanceLights.gif That's all I have time for today, thank you so much for all the wonderful and intelligent questions! I'll be back next month, ON A FRIDAY, to answer more questions. Have a nice long weekend, everyone! Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed!

I wrote about Kyle Gibson's road struggles on Friday and then he totally redeemed himself by breaking the Twins' five-game losing streak with an excellent road effort. The rest of the series was a real drag, although Jorge Polanco's triple in the ninth on Friday was pretty exciting. In fact, Jorge Polanco's everything is pretty exciting. Joe Mauer Over the last ten games, Mauer has raised his average about 15 points. If he maintains that pace, he'll be hitting over .400. So yeah, pretty good. That's probably not realistic, but it does seem that Mauer is getting his proverbial stuff together. His line drive rate has been slowly climbing and it seems that he has been finding more holes on the field. Maybe he is figuring out the "Mauer shift" or maybe his luck is evening out or maybe nothing is different at all. No one is happy that Mauer is having a bad season (even if it seems like some revel in it at times) and a productive Mauer is extremely important to the success of the Twins. It seems that he could be on the path back to his old self. I hope so. Sam Fuld So you know when you join a new website and you have to create a password? If you don't set up a proper password, you get that red "x" next to your choice and you have to enter a new password. I think baseball lineups should be entered in the same manner. http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ro5KLD8Qqgs/U6-ISV8QEpI/AAAAAAAABhc/quzgLxGk0Jo/s1600/fuldleadoff.png There are literally 11 better options than Fuld. Fuld's OPS is better than only Kendrys Morales and Pedro Florimon. One of those is a fluke and the other is a from a guy who probably shouldn't have a Major League job (more on that shortly!). Fuld plays center, runs fast and is short. Those three things alone should not overshadow that Fuld plays poorly, can't run when he isn't on base, and, well...I can't think of something that pairs with his height. It's almost as if the Twins are on a runaway bus that is set to explode if anyone thinks outside of the box. Pop quiz hot shot: Isn't it bad enough that the lineup options are so limited that Sam Fuld has to simply be in the lineup every day? It doesn't mean he needs to be put in a position where he could bat upwards of five times in one game. How's that for a 20-year-old reference? Pickles Dillhoefer Oh my goodness. I hate when people say "it was better in my day" or "they don't make things like they used to" because there's some serious confirmation bias working there. However, it's a scientific fact that nicknames were better in the early 1900s. I found Ol' Pickles up there because I was doing some Pedro Florimon research. Florimon is currently hitting under .100. His OPS is just barely above .300. If Florimon can somehow get to 100 plate appearances this season (and I think we all hope he doesn't), he'll be the first player since 1931 to hit under .100 and have an OPS under .300 with 100 or more PAs. Unreal. It wasn't Pickles, it was Ed Connolly, but Pickles did hit .126/.144/.158 in 104 plate appearances in 1917. He's also went by "Pickles." If Florimon starts going by "Pickles" Florimon, he'll become my favorite player, even with a .100 BA. Former Twin Update - Ryan Doumit I think it's safe to say the Twins sold Doumit at the right time. When they originally signed Doumit, I thought it was a safe, smart signing. He performed well for the Twins to start the 2012 season and earned an extension. However, he was always a comedy act in the field and his value as a batter was tied up in his power. The Twins unloaded Doumit for Sean Gilmartin this past December and if Gilmartin can simply perform as a sign post, he'll provide more value than Doumit has in 2014. Doumit isn't playing very often, shocking considering his defense and the lack of a DH in the NL. He currently has a strikeout-to-walk ratio over ten. TEN!!! He wore number 9 in his final season with the Twins, so I'd like to see that ratio dip just a tad in honor of his Twins' career. Random Top Ten List - BB/9 in a season since 1961 [TABLE=class: grid, width: 500] [TH=align: center]Rk[/TH] [TH=align: left]Player[/TH] [TH=align: center]BB9 ▴[/TH] [TH=align: left]Year[/TH] [TH=align: center]Age[/TH] [TH=align: center]Tm[/TH] [TH=align: center]GS[/TH] [TH=align: center]W[/TH] [TH=align: center]L[/TH] [TH=align: center]IP[/TH] [TH=align: center]H[/TH] [TH=align: center]ER[/TH] [TH=align: center]BB[/TH] [TH=align: center]SO[/TH] [TH=align: center]ERA[/TH] [TH=align: center]FIP[/TH] [TH=align: center]ERA+[/TH] [TH=align: center]BA[/TH] [TH=align: center]OBP[/TH] [TH=align: center]SLG[/TH] [TH=align: center]OPS[/TH] [TH=align: center]OPS+[/TH] [TD=align: right]1[/TD] [TD=align: left]Carlos Silva[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.43[/TD] [TD=align: left]2005[/TD] [TD=align: right]26[/TD] [TD=align: left]MIN[/TD] [TD=align: right]27[/TD] [TD=align: right]9[/TD] [TD=align: right]8[/TD] [TD=align: right]188.1[/TD] [TD=align: right]212[/TD] [TD=align: right]72[/TD] [TD=align: right]9[/TD] [TD=align: right]71[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.44[/TD] [TD=align: right]4.18[/TD] [TD=align: right]130[/TD] [TD=align: right].290[/TD] [TD=align: right].300[/TD] [TD=align: right].441[/TD] [TD=align: right].741[/TD] [TD=align: right]93[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [TD=align: left]Bret Saberhagen[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.66[/TD] [TD=align: left]1994[/TD] [TD=align: right]30[/TD] [TD=align: left]NYM[/TD] [TD=align: right]24[/TD] [TD=align: right]14[/TD] [TD=align: right]4[/TD] [TD=align: right]177.1[/TD] [TD=align: right]169[/TD] [TD=align: right]54[/TD] [TD=align: right]13[/TD] [TD=align: right]143[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.74[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.76[/TD] [TD=align: right]153[/TD] [TD=align: right].254[/TD] [TD=align: right].271[/TD] [TD=align: right].389[/TD] [TD=align: right].660[/TD] [TD=align: right]75[/TD] [TD=align: right]3[/TD] [TD=align: left]Cliff Lee[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.76[/TD] [TD=align: left]2010[/TD] [TD=align: right]31[/TD] [TD=align: left]TOT[/TD] [TD=align: right]28[/TD] [TD=align: right]12[/TD] [TD=align: right]9[/TD] [TD=align: right]212.1[/TD] [TD=align: right]195[/TD] [TD=align: right]75[/TD] [TD=align: right]18[/TD] [TD=align: right]185[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.18[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.58[/TD] [TD=align: right]133[/TD] [TD=align: right].240[/TD] [TD=align: right].255[/TD] [TD=align: right].363[/TD] [TD=align: right].618[/TD] [TD=align: right]66[/TD] [TD=align: right]4[/TD] [TD=align: left]Bob Tewksbury[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.77[/TD] [TD=align: left]1992[/TD] [TD=align: right]31[/TD] [TD=align: left]STL[/TD] [TD=align: right]32[/TD] [TD=align: right]16[/TD] [TD=align: right]5[/TD] [TD=align: right]233.0[/TD] [TD=align: right]217[/TD] [TD=align: right]56[/TD] [TD=align: right]20[/TD] [TD=align: right]91[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.16[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.13[/TD] [TD=align: right]158[/TD] [TD=align: right].248[/TD] [TD=align: right].265[/TD] [TD=align: right].353[/TD] [TD=align: right].618[/TD] [TD=align: right]81[/TD] [TD=align: right]5[/TD] [TD=align: left]Greg Maddux[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.77[/TD] [TD=align: left]1997[/TD] [TD=align: right]31[/TD] [TD=align: left]ATL[/TD] [TD=align: right]33[/TD] [TD=align: right]19[/TD] [TD=align: right]4[/TD] [TD=align: right]232.2[/TD] [TD=align: right]200[/TD] [TD=align: right]57[/TD] [TD=align: right]20[/TD] [TD=align: right]177[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.20[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.43[/TD] [TD=align: right]189[/TD] [TD=align: right].236[/TD] [TD=align: right].256[/TD] [TD=align: right].311[/TD] [TD=align: right].567[/TD] [TD=align: right]50[/TD] [TD=align: right]6[/TD] [TD=align: left]Bob Tewksbury[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.84[/TD] [TD=align: left]1993[/TD] [TD=align: right]32[/TD] [TD=align: left]STL[/TD] [TD=align: right]32[/TD] [TD=align: right]17[/TD] [TD=align: right]10[/TD] [TD=align: right]213.2[/TD] [TD=align: right]258[/TD] [TD=align: right]91[/TD] [TD=align: right]20[/TD] [TD=align: right]97[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.83[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.36[/TD] [TD=align: right]103[/TD] [TD=align: right].301[/TD] [TD=align: right].318[/TD] [TD=align: right].412[/TD] [TD=align: right].730[/TD] [TD=align: right]102[/TD] [TD=align: right]7[/TD] [TD=align: left]David Wells[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.85[/TD] [TD=align: left]2003[/TD] [TD=align: right]40[/TD] [TD=align: left]NYY[/TD] [TD=align: right]30[/TD] [TD=align: right]15[/TD] [TD=align: right]7[/TD] [TD=align: right]213.0[/TD] [TD=align: right]242[/TD] [TD=align: right]98[/TD] [TD=align: right]20[/TD] [TD=align: right]101[/TD] [TD=align: right]4.14[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.94[/TD] [TD=align: right]106[/TD] [TD=align: right].286[/TD] [TD=align: right].306[/TD] [TD=align: right].442[/TD] [TD=align: right].749[/TD] [TD=align: right]96[/TD] [TD=align: right]8[/TD] [TD=align: left]LaMarr Hoyt[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.86[/TD] [TD=align: left]1985[/TD] [TD=align: right]30[/TD] [TD=align: left]SDP[/TD] [TD=align: right]31[/TD] [TD=align: right]16[/TD] [TD=align: right]8[/TD] [TD=align: right]210.1[/TD] [TD=align: right]210[/TD] [TD=align: right]81[/TD] [TD=align: right]20[/TD] [TD=align: right]83[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.47[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.44[/TD] [TD=align: right]102[/TD] [TD=align: right].261[/TD] [TD=align: right].280[/TD] [TD=align: right].386[/TD] [TD=align: right].666[/TD] [TD=align: right]91[/TD] [TD=align: right]9[/TD] [TD=align: left]Phil Hughes[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.87[/TD] [TD=align: left]2014[/TD] [TD=align: right]28[/TD] [TD=align: left]MIN[/TD] [TD=align: right]16[/TD] [TD=align: right]8[/TD] [TD=align: right]4[/TD] [TD=align: right]103.0[/TD] [TD=align: right]110[/TD] [TD=align: right]41[/TD] [TD=align: right]10[/TD] [TD=align: right]88[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.58[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.60[/TD] [TD=align: right]112[/TD] [TD=align: right].273[/TD] [TD=align: right].289[/TD] [TD=align: right].397[/TD] [TD=align: right].686[/TD] [TD=align: right]91[/TD] [TD=align: right]10[/TD] [TD=align: left]Jon Lieber[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.92[/TD] [TD=align: left]2004[/TD] [TD=align: right]34[/TD] [TD=align: left]NYY[/TD] [TD=align: right]27[/TD] [TD=align: right]14[/TD] [TD=align: right]8[/TD] [TD=align: right]176.2[/TD] [TD=align: right]216[/TD] [TD=align: right]85[/TD] [TD=align: right]18[/TD] [TD=align: right]102[/TD] [TD=align: right]4.33[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.71[/TD] [TD=align: right]104[/TD] [TD=align: right].301[/TD] [TD=align: right].317[/TD] [TD=align: right].442[/TD] [TD=align: right].758[/TD] [TD=align: right]97[/TD] [TD=align: right]11[/TD] [TD=align: left]David Wells[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.92[/TD] [TD=align: left]2004[/TD] [TD=align: right]41[/TD] [TD=align: left]SDP[/TD] [TD=align: right]31[/TD] [TD=align: right]12[/TD] [TD=align: right]8[/TD] [TD=align: right]195.2[/TD] [TD=align: right]203[/TD] [TD=align: right]81[/TD] [TD=align: right]20[/TD] [TD=align: right]101[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.73[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.88[/TD] [TD=align: right]104[/TD] [TD=align: right].266[/TD] [TD=align: right].285[/TD] [TD=align: right].410[/TD] [TD=align: right].694[/TD] [TD=align: right]89[/TD] [TD=align: right]12[/TD] [TD=align: left]Greg Maddux[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.99[/TD] [TD=align: left]1995[/TD] [TD=align: right]29[/TD] [TD=align: left]ATL[/TD] [TD=align: right]28[/TD] [TD=align: right]19[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [TD=align: right]209.2[/TD] [TD=align: right]147[/TD] [TD=align: right]38[/TD] [TD=align: right]23[/TD] [TD=align: right]181[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.63[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.26[/TD] [TD=align: right]260[/TD] [TD=align: right].197[/TD] [TD=align: right].224[/TD] [TD=align: right].258[/TD] [TD=align: right].482[/TD] [TD=align: right]29[/TD] [/TABLE] Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used Generated 6/29/2014. Phil Hughes is doing something borderline historic this season. Only eight pitchers have qualified for the ERA title and posted a lower BB/9 in a season (since 1961). Obviously, this season is only roughly halfway over and Hughes has a lot of innings left to throw, but it's still crazy just how great he has been at limiting walks. It's still shocking to see Carlos Silva at the top of that list. Hughes already has more strikeouts this season than Silva had that season. Wild. Wait, no, not wild. In control, but wild. The other wild. Get Excited About a Prospect - Nate Roberts Roberts is not a household name, like say, Coke or Tide, but he is a very intriguing baseball player. He returned to action last week after missing roughly 45 seasons due to injury. Roberts is so interesting because he's an absolute Minor League OBP Machine. His career OBP is over .440, just a ridiculous number even for an older guy at lower levels. Baseball karma owes this guy some good fortune, so I'm just going to hop headfirst onto his bandwagon. Even if he makes his MLB debut at 50, I bet he'll walk in his first plate appearance. AIM Chat with 12-Year-Old Brad http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-jLn2X8agM74/U6-IBFxK91I/AAAAAAAABhU/Kyp1hjtG5_0/s1600/aimtop.png KPuckFan34123456: Hey Future Brad. BSwanson0928: Oh hey, I don't have a lot of time, I have to go to the Twins game. KPuckFan34123456: Oh fun, lucky! BSwanson0928: Eh, I guess. KPuckFan34123456: You aren't excited? BSwanson0928: Well, it's a work night and traffic is awful and I'll have to walk from the ramp or pay a lot. KPuckFan34123456: But you get to go to the game. BSwanson0928: Well, yeah, but it's not that great. KPuckFan34123456: Why not? I love going to the Dome. BSwanson0928: Well, the Dome is gone, it was replaced with Target Field, an outdoor stadium. KPuckFan34123456: Oh, even better! Isn't it really nice outside in June? BSwanson0928: Eh, it's a little hot, sometimes buggy. It might be a little too sunny too. KPuckFan34123456: Sounds rough... BSwanson0928: Are you being sarcastic? Do 12-year-olds use sarcasm? KPuckFan34123456: It's just lame that you're being lame about going to a baseball game. I wish I was going to a game tonight. BSwanson0928: You'll learn new adjectives soon. Well, it's different when you're older. KPuckFan34123456: Why? Do I start to not like baseball? BSwanson0928: No, I still like baseball a lot. I write about it like three times a week. KPuckFan34123456: You'd rather write about it than go to a game. You're weird. I'm going to be weird. BSwanson0928: I'm probably being a baby. It will be fun once I get there. It always is. KPuckFan34123456: Always, how often do you go? BSwanson0928: 4-5 games a year, although in college I went to like 15-20 games a year. KPuckFan34123456: College sounds fun. We had a math test today. It was easy. BSwanson0928: Math is cool. KPuckFan34123456: No it isn't. I'm going to go now. Have fun at the game. BSwanson0928: Thanks, I will. http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-d6WkUdiwjpg/U6-H52vC6oI/AAAAAAAABhM/mUBxOa0S3wg/s1600/aimbottom.png Random Baseball Card from the Past - David Arias I think I figured out why David Ortiz didn't become Big Papi with the Twins. http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Jl4LFDWicms/U6-OrjenDeI/AAAAAAAABhs/jR-Z1PZbSt0/s1600/david+arias.jpg It's one thing to keep the bat on your shoulder, it's another thing to keep the bat near both shoulders. Plus, that's a great way to break a finger. This card is either shockingly expensive (like $30!), or I don't know how much cards are worth. For the record, I have no clue how to re-size a photo here. I wish I could make this bigger. Plugging My Way - Brian Dozier is interesting Last week, I wrote about Brian Dozier and what a handso...I mean interesting man he is. Statistically, he's having a good, but super weird season. If you want more details, just click here. Also, I may have uncovered the fact that Brian Dozier is Mike Schmidt. This would be a pretty big discovery. Parting Thought The Twins are awful on the road lately. They return home for this week and I hope they can pick up a lot of wins. The Royals have cooled off and the Yankees are hardly scary, but it's still two winning teams coming to town. If the Twins have any ambition of being in the Wild Card race, they need to have a great week. I hope you have a great week too! Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! Twins ended their losing streak yesterday so celebrate with a half-price L or XL pizza from PapaJohns.com by using the promo code 'TWINSWIN'!

SWEEP! SWEEP! SWEEP! SWEEP! SWEEP! SWEEP! SWEEP! SWEEP! SWEEP! SWEEP! Oswaldo Arcia On June 4, I declared my desire to legally adopt Arcia. Since that day, he is 4 for 46 with 18 strikeouts. I withdraw my application. Not because I don't want to adopt him, but because it seems to be affecting him adversely. He has been hit by three pitches since that day, likely from jealous pitchers. A 4:3 hit to HBP ratio either means a batter is struggling or has been breaking a ton of unwritten rules. Arcia has been struggling mightily. He was recently benched for Chris Parmelee and that didn't help things whatsoever. The Twins could certainly send Arcia back to Rochester. That's how they handled his slumps last year. However, I'd recommend keeping him in the lineup to give him the chance to work though his struggles. Arcia appears to be a pretty streaky hitter, but he's been consistently excellent in AAA. Knowing that, the Twins need to figure out if Arcia can adjust in-season against MLB pitching. I feel pretty confident that he'll be able to get it together if he's allowed to keep swinging through his slump. Kendrys Morales Speaking of slumps. Morales had just two hits last week. He scored and drove in one run apiece. I'm sure that if I betray myself and look at the Twins' Facebook page, there will be many calling him names and loathing that he was ever signed. Ah, but it's just a slump. In fact, Morales had just four hits from June 16, 2013 to June 22, 2013, proving that he just really hates that week. Morales didn't have a spring training and he's only played a handful of games. He posted a 123 OPS+ last year, despite that one-week stretch in mid-June. He's a good hitter, he'll hit. Glen Perkins Perkins blew the save on Friday, but managed to find the will to win. He was a little shaky on Saturday, but got the job done. I saw a few individuals questioning whether or not we should be worried about Perkins. Emphatically: no. Perkins currently has the highest strikeout rate and lowest walk rate of his career. His BABIP is thirty points higher than his career figure and his strand rate is nearly ten points lower. Perkins is dominant and there's simply no reason to worry about his performance in the least. STOP WORRYING! Former Twin Update - Kevin Slowey The end of an era! The Miami Marlins DFA'd Kevin Slowey to make room for some super prospect or something. I hate that we live in a world where talent trumps Slowey, but I guess I'll have to learn to live with it. Slowey did that cool thing he does where he put up a much better FIP than ERA. That's so Slowey. His 5.30 ERA wasn't cutting it for a surprisingly good Marlins team. Normally, this is where I'd advocate the Twins taking a look at him, but I don't have the strength for a fake fight right now. Random Top Five List 2014 AL Ground Ball Rate Leaders Dallas Keuchel - 63.7% Justin Masterson - 59.8% Jarred Cosart - 56.7% Kyle Gibson - 55.8% Sonny Gray - 55.0% Clearly, Gibson owns one elite skill. He has always had the ground ball reputation and it's manifesting in 2014. I'd love to see his strikeout rate jump a tad, but elite ground ball pitchers are able to have some level of success without a ton of strikeouts. However, Gibson's strikeout rate is significantly lower than those on this list and the guys who are in the 6th through 10th positions. Something to keep an eye on. Half-Hearted Mini-Rant - West Coast Baseball So the Twins are in Anaheim for some baseball this week and I am not pleased! What's with these 9 PM start times? Doesn't baseball know I have a job? Doesn't baseball know I can't stay up past 11pm or I'll be somewhat tired and irritable? Hey baseball, can we try to start these games at a reasonable hour? Hey lawmakers, why not get off your lazy keisters and do something about this problem? My solution? Eliminate time zones. If it's 7 PM here, it should be 7 PM everywhere. No one wants to do math to figure out when games start. No one likes to count. The sun won't cooperate? Forget the sun, let's blow it up! We'll be just fine without your heat and light, sun. Look, this is America, we can do anything! I refuse to believe that we can't engineer a better sun right here on our soil. And, we can work on it from 8-5 and it will be super easy to call our friends in Estonia after work because the times will be the same and we can all watch the Twins game together as a culture. This needs to happen. New Poll! Last month, I put up a poll and asked who would win the Twins' Cy Young Award in 2014. The results are striking, but not shocking: Phil Hughes - 63 votes Sam Deduno - 4 votes Kevin Corr...hahahahahahahahahaha - 3 votes Glen Perkins - 7 votes Kyle Gibson - 2 votes Ricky Nolasco - 2 votes Brian Dozier - 24 votes I appreciate the irreverence of those voting for Dozier. Hughes appears to be the runaway choice and he also appears to actually be running away with this fake award. Making fun of Correia seems to have inspired him and I'll gladly take full credit for that. I have added a new poll and if you respect the democratic process, you will vote. If you don't respect that process, you can still vote. The process respects you. Plugging My Way Last Friday, I pondered how things would be different if the Twins had drafted Mark Prior instead of Joe Mauer. It's interesting, to say the least. Here's the full text. If you just want the chain of events, here you go: Twins draft Prior Twins win 2003 World Series George Steinbrenner develops cyborg player technology MLB expands to 90,000 teams Prior retires It's all pretty logical. Parting Thoughts Watching the Twins beat the White Sox all weekend was very satisfying. Before the season started, I questioned how anyone could think that ratty White Sox team would be better than the Twins in 2014. They're closer than I thought (the Sox are a bit better than "ratty," I guess) but I still think the Twins are better. Oh, and that Adam Eaton is going to annoy the daylights out of me for about a decade. He's scrappy. Have a great week, everyone! Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! Twins win and so do you. On Monday, get a half price large or extra-large pizza from PapaJohns.com by using the promo code 'TWINSWIN'.

Weekend Recap The series started well but ended poorly. Kyle Gibson was excellent on Friday, but Sam Deduno and Ricky Nolasco got boomed like dynamite. Oh well, losing 2 of 3 in Detroit would have to fall into the "expected" category. Who did stuff that was notable? Let's find out! Ricky Nolasco On May 28, I asked if we should be worried about Ricky Nolasco. Since that day, Nolasco has made four starts. He's thrown 24 innings, given up 12 earned runs, 29 hits and 8 walks. He also has 21 strikeouts in that span, but his ERA is still 5.66 right now. I'll go ahead and answer my original question: yes, we should be worried about Ricky Nolasco. Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! My biggest concern is that the Twins will be very slow to yank him from the rotation if he continues to struggle. Nolasco has been durable and inconsistent for basically his entire career. The Twins can rely on him to make his starts, but if better options are present, should they want that reliability? More importantly, Nolasco is under contract for three more seasons after 2014 and I imagine he'll get many opportunities to improve his performance. I think this is justifiable, but at some point, the Twins have to examine the sunk cost and determine if there are pitchers in the organization who give the team a better chance to win. I'm not sure we're at the point of replacing Nolasco. That said, if Kyle Gibson was having Ricky Nolasco's season, is there any doubt that Gibson would be in Rochester? it's not a perfect hypothetical, but it's interesting to consider. Trevor Plouffe/Deibinson Romero Trevor Plouffe is on the disabled list with what MLB At-Bat referred to as a "side injury." An injury to an entire side sounds extremely painful, although I have no idea how one injures an entire side without slipping on ice, flying into the air and landing completely on your side. You know what, I can't really describe it in words, here's a picture: http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Ucy2HvJxtMM/U54KrFgZ-PI/AAAAAAAABfU/D-bMu2AO1Sk/s1600/sidecomic.png That looks bad. It sounds like he could miss significant time. It's a shame because Plouffe has hit pretty well this year (100 OPS+, exactly league-average) and he was placed on the DL on his 28th birthday. The Twins recalled Pedro Florimon to take his place and he'll slot in on the bench where the fact that he won't get any hits is expected because you're not allowed to get hits when you are on the bench. The Twins do have a third baseman at Rochester who could have taken Plouffe's spot quite nicely. Deibinson Romero has been in the organization since 2006. He's slowly climbed through the Minors and he's batting .310/.406/.452 in 62 games with Rochester this year (through Satuday). Romero isn't on the 40-man roster, so that might be the justification, but it seems that if Romero isn't getting his chance in this tailor-made situation, he may never get a chance with the Twins. Too bad. I'd be interested to see if he could translate some of his MiLB OBP skills to the Majors. Josh Willingham I was looking forward to Willingham's return from injury, mostly because I wanted to see how much he had left in the tank. I hoped he would hit for some power and become a trade chip at the deadline. Now, I might lean toward bringing him back for a season or two. Willingham displays "old player skills" in that he draws walks and hits for power. These are skills that older players can maintain if they maintain health. Obviously, Willingham is a health risk, but if he were to sign at a decent number and agree to move to DH, he could be a useful piece as the Twins transition in more young players. We know his power plays at Target Field and he likes playing in Minnesota. It seems like a good fit. That said, if someone offers a good prospect at the deadline, I'd take it and hope the love we let go finds his way back home. It would be so poetic. Former Twin Update - Vance Worley Vance Worley returned to the majors on Sunday and because it is apparently super fun to troll Twins fans, he decided to have an awesome debut. Worley went seven innings, allowed zero runs on five hits with five strikeouts and no walks. Frick. It's just one start to I'm going to resist the impulse to throw my horn-rimmed glasses through the window, but a Worley success story would be about as frustrating as any former Twin finding success elsewhere. Worley legitimately gave the Twins no reason to put him in the MLB rotation after spring training. They got him through waivers near the end of Spring Training and could have used him in AAA. Instead, they sold him to Pittsburgh. Yes, the team that everyone rips for being cheap actually sold a player for money because they also apparently like to troll Twins fans. The reason they sold him (beyond cash being fun and the perfect way to buy stuff)? The Rochester rotation would have been too crowded. Scott Diamond has a 6.94 ERA with Rochester. The rotation was just too crowded! I don't think Worley turns into anything truly special, but he's just 26 and he would have been an interesting choice to replace one of the ineffective Twins' starters. Worley is one month older than Kyle Gibson. One month. Fun Stat - Nolasco's "Adjustments" I can't remember where I found this stat, but I'm going to share it anyway: MLB Leaders for most times adjusting pants: Ricky Nolasco - 25,000 Everyone else - much less Interesting. I noticed that he adjusts his pants a lot, but I had no idea how elite he truly was. Random Animation Is it time to replace Sam Deduno with Trevor May? Perhaps this creepy animation will help me express my feelings on the subject: http://1.bp.blogspot.com/--jqVxfdmu1k/U54Lg8msDdI/AAAAAAAABfc/2iL-PsX3cdY/s1600/dedunotomay.gif 2 things - I promise not to do that again and Sam Deduno's head is bigger than Trevor May's. That part isn't my fault. KWL Chart - Kendrys Morales http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-KIHPYZ0-0sU/U54Ll1DjboI/AAAAAAAABfk/6kVEchYIS34/s1600/KWL+Morales.png Pro-tip: Click it and it gets bigger. Baseball Card of the Week In honor of the Twins facing Joe Nathan this past weekend, here is an early Nathan baseball card: http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-vFx9UzmuJw8/U54LunEVmCI/AAAAAAAABfs/1vTMs4ltg4Y/s1600/nathan+rookie.jpg This was from the era when Fleer was trying to capture what baseball would be like if every player was constantly zoned out and looking off into space. Plugging My Way Last week, I wrote about Joe Mauer's historic slump. I looked at the number of players who performed as well or better than Mauer through age 30 and how they performed from 31 and on. I think the "research" is somewhat interesting, so here's the link for anyone who likes things that are "interesting." In addition, check back on Friday as I will examine how the present would be different if the Twins had drafted Mark Prior instead of Joe Mauer back in 2001. I'm taking a slightly different perspective, so be sure to check it out! Parting Thought The Twins head to Boston this week, which means non-stop reminders that David Ortiz hated playing in Minnesota. I'll be honest, it's gotten stale. Maybe he should start talking about how much he hates Seattle. They gave up on him first! They traded him for Dave Hollins! Anyway, I hope Ortiz hits fewer than four home runs in this series, because watching him round the bases for 45 minutes is not how I want to spend my weeknights. Have a great week, everyone!

Weekend Recap Ugh, not great. The Twins got two pretty poor starts from their two most consistent starters and dropped two of three to the lowly Astros. Houston has one of the worst offenses in the AL, but they looked like a powerhouse this past weekend. Oh well, it's just one series. The Twins did make a pretty significant move to upgrade their roster, so that's nice. Kendrys Morales And one that came out of nowhere. Everyone knew that Morales would sign very soon after the draft, because the draft pick compensation attached to him would expire. However, I didn't see one rumor linking the Twins to Morales. I'm quite pleased though. I don't think this changes the Twins' 2014 ceiling a ton, but having a professional hitter as the everyday DH is never a bad thing. Morales has a career OPS+ of 120 and has basically met that figure each of the last two seasons. He's a much better hitter from the left side, but he's competent from the right side as well. The Twins DFA'd Jason Kubel to make room for Morales. This is something I had advocated for a few times over the last couple weeks. I was actually sad after it happened, as I really do like Kubel. Unfortunately, a DH has to hit and Kubel hasn't hit since a hot start. Of course, Kubel isn't the only player affected by this signing. I had been up in arms about Josmil Pinto's lack of playing time, but much of that was because he was losing starts to far less talented players. Now, he's competing for ABs with a very talented hitter. I would still like to see Pinto in the lineup more often than not, and I think that might start to happen naturally, as I still don't think Kurt Suzuki is capable of a full season at the level he's been hitting. Now, the Twins have five above average hitters in their everyday lineup (Morales, Brian Dozier, Oswaldo Arcia, Josh Willingham and yes, Joe Mauer). Pinto should provide good offense when he's in the lineup and Trevor Plouffe has been pretty good so far this year. If the shortstops and center fielders can be halfway decent, the Twins' lineup could be very potent. I'm excited, can you tell? Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! Kyle Gibson Gibson was great on Saturday, leading the Twins to an 8-0 victory and winning his fifth game of the season. Gibson matched a career-high with five strikeouts. He also issued his first walk since May 16, snapping a string of 23 consecutive innings without giving a free pass. Gibson has done a much better job of limiting walks since April. He hasn't improved his overall strikeout rate, but he has totaled four or more strikeouts in four of his last five starts. Gibson will never be a high strikeout guy, but if he can manage about six per nine innings, he could have a really nice career. Right now, his 54.1% ground ball rate is fifth in the American League, so he already has one elite skill. His walk rate is no longer in the bottom ten and should continue to improve. While he was getting dynamic results early in the season, he's actually pitching better now. Danny Santana Santana hit his first major league home run on Friday night. He went 4-5 with a double and five RBI on Saturday. Sunday...well Sunday wasn't really great for anyone. Santana is quite fun to watch. He's young, he's fast, he's new. New toys are always exciting. I thought Santana would be with the Twins for a couple weeks and then he would head back to Rochester until September. However, he's been great and Ron Gardenhire seems to like and trust him. It would be very hard to send him back to AAA right now. Look, you know I love Eduardo Escobar. However, Santana is not a long-term option in center. Byron Buxton owns that position from 2015 to 2035 (hopefully). Santana is a long-term option at short and I don't think Escobar is. Perhaps it might be time to get Santana a few starts at short, possibly transitioning him to that position full-time in the next couple weeks. Santana isn't as good as Escobar defensively, but he also needs reps to actually get better. Escobar has cooled off a bit at the plate and Santana profiles as a better hitter anyway. I'm not sure this matters a whole lot over the course of the next decade, but I'd hate to stunt Santana's growth just because he is very fun to watch and a utility guy is going through a hot streak. Madness Former Twin Update - Johan Santana This sucks. Johan Santana was about a week from making his 2014 MLB debut when he tore his Achilles trying to make a defensive play. Santana is an excellent athlete and made some great plays in the field in his day, but this one cost him the rest of the 2014 season and could be his final play as a professional athlete. I hope that is not the case. I'd like to see Santana come back for 2015 (with the Twins, please) because I am a huge fan of his and I want him to have more success as a pitcher. Ah, so awful, let's move on. Random Link - Grant Brisbee's Draft Analysis On the much lighter side, Grant Brisbee analyzed the first round of the MLB draft. Here's the link. The article itself is outstanding, although it could be a bit confusing if you aren't familiar with his work. The comments from the article are great, but the Facebook comments on the article are gold. It's never fun to be the guy who isn't in on the joke, but being one of the guys who is in on the joke, watching the guy who isn't in on the joke is quite amusing. Anyway, the article is fun on its own, even if you don't like making fun of innocent people. What kind of food is Glen Perkins? A brand new feature! Glen Perkins is pizza. He's simple, but versatile. He's basically fastball/slider (cheese and sauce), but he throws those pitches like he doesn't give a what (pepperoni?). BUT, he also can adapt. He can be a BBQ chicken pizza, he can be a Hawaiian pizza, he can be a garbage pizza. He can be anything! He's funny, he's personable, he's charismatic and he's awesome. Plus, everyone loves him. I have found few people in this world who dislike pizza and even fewer who dislike Glen Perkins. Glen Perkins, the pizza of the Twins. Fun Stat - Power-Speed No one has the Power-Speed of Brian Dozier! What is Power-Speed, you ask? Well, it's the harmonic mean of home runs and stolen bases, of course! It's a Bill James stat designed to look at which players provide the best combination of these two skills. Of course, there's a ton more to power and speed than just home runs and stolen bases, but it's still fun to see Dozier at the top of the list. Someone should really teach that Bill James guy about sabermetrics. Improving Celebrations? Last year, I proposed silly hats to improve celebrations. I even made a picture: Fun, right? Well, every coin has a heads and a tails. See, now they don't add a whole lot. Super unprofessional, trainer. By the way, this is the last time I'll reference this event, Kendrys. I promise. Plugging My Way I did a mailbag last week. It was about 1300 words and 500 were about snow pants. You'll just have to read it to figure out why. I also answered questions about Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, Nick Gordon and Mike Pelfrey. Woof, that list tapered off hard. Here's the link. Parting Haiku Morales is nice Not going to win it all Still great for the fans Have a nice week, everyone!

The Twins made a big splash back in December, signing Ricky Nolasco to a 4-year, $49 million contract with a team option for a fifth year. It was the largest contract the Twins had given to a free agent and it marked a change in philosophy related to building a team. The Twins were no longer going to simply rely on home-grown talent and smaller signings. They wanted to sign a player who could lead their rotation for a couple of years while guys with more talent, but less experience, ready themselves for the majors. Two months into the season and Nolasco has a 6.12 ERA and 1.575 WHIP in ten starts. He had a 3.70 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 33 starts in 2013. What happened? Some posit that Nolasco will heat up as the weather improves. Of course, that is just a narrative. It was pretty nice on Sunday and he got rocked. Nolasco pitched a gem in his third start as a Twin, throwing eight innings of one-run baseball in 50-degree temperature. If convenient narratives won't help us figure out if we should be worried, perhaps we could look to...stats?!? I know, stats are for nerds. In some cases, using these nerdy stats, we can figure out if a player is as bad as he seems. In the case of Nolasco, there are some interesting stats that point in many different directions. I broke them into a few categories. Split Stats Before we get too deep into our analysis, let me just state that Nolasco has been better in May. Take a look at this chart that compares April and May: [TABLE=class: grid, width: 440] [/TD][TD]ERA FIP xFIP WHIP K% BB% HR/FB% BABIP LOB% GB% April 6.67 5.27 4.66 1.75 9.7 6.7 13.9 0.355 66.7 50.5 May 5.58 4.09 3.79 1.4 20.5 5.3 11.6 0.333 66.7 31.6 Career 4.45 3.8 3.77 1.3 19.1 5.5 10.4 0.309 68.6 41.7 [/TABLE] He hasn't been outstanding in May, but most of the important indicator stats have improved since a pretty awful April. That said, there are still some individual stats that will give us a better understanding of how an effective pitcher in 2013 became a volcano of misery in 2014. Ok, that's a bit dramatic. How about a science fair volcano of misery? Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! Luck StatsHome run-to-fly ball ratio (HR/FB%) measures how frequently a fly ball becomes a home run. Research has shown that pitchers (and batters for that matter) tend to have their own rate at which fly balls become home runs. When the figure deviates, there's some luck at play. Nolasco has a career mark of 10.4%, just about average in the majors. When that rate is four points higher than usual, it means that an extra 4% of fly balls go over the fence instead of nestling softly in a glove. In raw numbers, we're talking about one extra home run per month, but it still makes a difference. BABIP is another luck-based stat where a player sets his own baseline. Nolasco's BABIP is quite out of line with his career mark. In April it was really high and in May it's been just quite high. Those figures aren't doing him a lot of favors, and it was especially unforgiving in April because his strikeout rate was very low and thus more balls were being put in play. Again, the raw numbers might only get us to four or five more hits that Nolasco gave up as a result of his high BABIP, but again, every little bit counts. Even if these stats only account for a small amount of Nolasco's bad performance, they do matter. These two stats point toward some bad luck for Nolasco and thus, we shouldn't worry too much. Of course, these aren't the only stats that matter. Skill Stats Can someone remind me, is a giant drop in strikeout rate good or bad for a pitcher? Without my baseball encyclopedia handy, I'll just have to assume it's a bad thing. That ten point drop in strikeout rate could be explained a lot of different ways: not hitting spots, trying to involve infielders, Rick Anderson is Satan, etc. Whatever the reasons behind the drop, the drop itself was very troubling. While Nolasco hasn't been much better in May, the return of his strikeout rate is a good sign for the future. His walk rate has been pretty stable. However, Nolasco has always had great ability to limit walks but it didn't always (or even frequently) translate to a great ability to limit runs. So, we can be pleased about his walk rate, but it hasn't been a great indicator of his success in the past either. Bummer. These skill-based stats explain a lot in April. Nolasco's ability to strike out batters almost completely vanished in April. It was almost as if he was being threatened by Kevin Correia or something. When the rate returned in May, he was better, although the luck-based stats were still not in his favor. Again, these things appear to be positive going forward. Although, there are a few more stats to look at. Shoulder Shrug Stats LOB% or left on-base percentage (I call it strand rate just for further confusion) is a stat that calculates the percentage of baserunners left on base by the pitcher. This is another stat that has an individual baseline. Nolasco's strand rate is lower than his career figure, but not by much. The discrepancy may account for some of his struggles, but not much. The shoulder shrug comes in when you look at his career figure compared to the typical league average, which usually comes in around 73-74%. Why does Nolasco strand runners so poorly? Who knows, but I doubt he figures it out at this stage of his career. Nolasco's ground ball rate is all over the place, so who knows what to think so far. His season figure is in line with his career rate, but his career rate isn't all that great. He had seen his ground ball rate rise to respectable territory from 2010-2012, but it has dropped back down in the past two seasons. I don't think the Twins can rely on Nolasco to be a ground ball specialist at this point. That said, with a decent defense behind him, a fly ball pitcher can have success. Do the Twins have a decent outfield defense? Well, come on, you know the answer to that. xFIP or expected fielder-independent pitching is a great way to look at how a pitcher would have performed if we lived in a perfect world where ballparks and home runs were normalized and puppies and kitties flowed out of water faucets but we still had access to water in other ways. Nolasco's xFIP looks great, as it always does, but that hasn't really helped Nolasco in the actual performance department. If the Twins thought this would be different in Minnesota, I have a water faucet to sell them. Shoulder shrug. Finally, there doesn't appear to be anything related to his repertoire that is hurting his performance. His velocity is right in line with the past couple seasons and he's not throwing anything too much more or less than he threw it before. His stuff is the same but his results have been poorer. I guess that, more than anything, is a reason to be optimistic. Conclusion Of course, this all falls into the small sample size realm where we aren't allowed to draw any conclusions ever. However, these stats all exist and while they don't really tell us anything going forward, they can explain why things happened the way they did. His strikeout and walk rates are more in line with his career average, but his ground ball rate, home run-to-fly ball rate and BABIP are out of line. This could explain some of the discrepancy between his April/May and career ERAs. While no single stat explained a huge portion of his struggles, when you add up all the little bits, it kind of starts to make sense. Think of it this way. If someone gave me just one slice of pizza, it would barely fill me up. If I had six slices of pizza, I'd be comatose on the couch with sauce on my face and my shirt off. Ricky Nolasco is dealing with the equivalent of six slices of pizza. Think about it. I'm not sure Nolasco will ever be worth the contract he was given, but I feel pretty confident that he will perform better going forward than he has thus far. But then, I live in a puppy/kitty faucet, shirtless, covered in pizza sauce kind of world.