Brad Swanson

Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! If you really like reviews, I did two 2013 fun stats reviews as well: Hitters. Pitchers. Fun! The 2013 regular season has ended. The AL Central has produced a team that has made it to at least the ALCS. In addition, the Indians made the Wild Card game and the Royals had a pretty decent season. The Twins and White Sox battled heroically for last place, with the White Sox emerging victorious. Prior to the season, I did some predictin'. I looked at each of the AL Central teams' offseason moves and came to some wild & crazy kids conclusions. When I started this blog a little over a year ago, I had one thing in mind: accountability. I wanted to have a record of all the stupid and sometimes (rarely) insightful things that pop into my mind on a given day. Who better to call myself out than me? I know me really well. BTW, I predicted the following order before the season: [TABLE=class: grid, width: 500] Preview Predicted Order Actual Order Detroit Detroit Kansas City Cleveland Chicago Kansas City Cleveland Minnesota Minnesota Chicago [/TABLE] I mean, 1/5 is really not that bad. So, here is the dumbest and most smrt thing that I said about each team during the previews. If you really want to read previews from a season that already happened, here is the Tigers preview with links to the others. Detroit Dumb: Phil Coke emerged in the ALCS and could ride his confidence/quirkiness to a successful season. In fact, you could argue that Phil Coke is the Zooey Deschanel of the Tigers. Ok, I can't say that I really remember what this was in reference to. I think there were a lot of New Girl promos and Phil Coke was a weirdo or something. The successful season part was incorrect. Coke was terrible and injured in 2013. On the plus side, I have gotten a surprising amount of Google traffic from people searching for Zooey Deschanel. Those people must be so confused. Smrt: Addition by Subtraction - Valverde, who was overrated when he was good and mostly bad last year. Young, as no one in Detroit as to worry that Delmon will run into a dam while chasing a fly ball and flood the whole city. Ha! Roasted, Delmon. I even drew a picture to commemorate that sick burn: http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-CTMVUrcHanQ/UYbRLGjl5pI/AAAAAAAAAng/YUmSlPiHwsY/s320/Delmon+Dam.png Ah, memories. Replacing Young with Torii Hunter was a former Twins upgrade. Valverde was actually brought back early in 2013 due to issues with the Tigers bullpen. He was released after 19.1 hungry innings. Kansas City Dumb: Mike Moustakas is solid. Well, this is just plain inaccurate. Moustakas was the second overall pick back in 2007. After seeing a huge jump in his WAR in 2012 (mostly from defense), he plummeted to negative WAR in 2013. He's only 25 and not arbitration eligible until 2015, but I'd bet the Royals are already looking at potential long-term replacements. His OBP sunk to .287 last season. Yuck; not solid. Smrt: Their bullpen is crazy talented. This is accurate. According to Fangraphs, the Kansas City bullpen provided 7.3 WAR, second only to Texas. They had a 2.55 ERA and averaged more than a strikeout per inning. Greg Holland was ludicrous. Luke Hochevar made the transition from albatross starter to extremely effective reliever. Louis Coleman, Tim Collins, Will Smith, Aaron Crow, the list goes on. They were even able to overcome some regression from Kelvin Herrera, who still looks great to me despite a near 4 ERA. Goodness. Chicago Dumb: All that being said, there is serious talent on this roster. Nope, not true. Chris Sale and Addison Reed are talented. Jose Quintana is talented. Alex Rios and Jake Peavy are talented, but were traded. Paul Konerko is talented, but he's old. Alexei Ramirez plays a mean short. Other than that, there isn't a lot of actual talent on the roster. Serious talent was an overstatement. Moderate talent would have been more appropriate, but possibly still too strong. Smrt: The offense scored runs, but might be worse than in 2012. I really felt their collapse in my bones. I should have written "will" instead of "might." In the early days of this blog, I wanted to remain non-confrontational. I've emerged as a shock jock and shock jock Brad would have used "will." Regardless, their offense went from 7th in the Majors in 2012 to 29th in 2013. Paul Konerko retired (not really, but figuratively), Alejandro De Aza and Dayan Viciedo regressed, and Alexei Ramirez and Gordon Beckham improved, but were still unimpressive. Adam Dunn lead this offense with a 103 OPS+ and he hit .219. Just awful; and I felt it and I wasn't confident about it. Never again! Cleveland Dumb: Bauer is pretty close to MLB ready, so he might even help in 2013. I had this odd affinity for Trevor Bauer. I guess I just love complex warm-up routines or something. I liked that he had a mix of pitches and I guess I got ahead of myself. Bauer did not help the Indians in 2013. He only made four starts and only lasted through 17 innings in those starts. He walked everyone and didn't fare much better in AAA. A lot of experts think he needs to lose some pitches. I guess he'll have to adapt or die, as they say. I still hold out some long-term hope, but I'm not sure he helps much in 2014. Smrt: 2013 might not be a playoff season, but the future is fairly bright in Cleveland. Yes, I was wrong about 2013. However, the bright future part does look pretty smart in hindsight. The Indians were the 5th worst team in baseball in 2012. They traded one of their best offensive players in the off-season. Yet, I thought the moves they made were very impressive. I wrote this before the signed Michael Bourn, although I have to admit that signing would not have made me put them any higher than 3rd in the division. All that being said, their future is bright and I'm not so sure that was the general sentiment around them in February. If nothing else, it is definitely the most intelligent statement in that preview. So that's something. Your Minnesota Twins Dumb: Addition by Subtraction – Matt Capps, but only for fan sanity. I still think he has something to give a team. I was right about the addition by subtraction part. Matt Capps did have something to give a team too! 7 AAA innings. That's it. That's what Matt Capps did last summer. The Indians just re-signed him yesterday and I can't imagine they will get less out of him in 2014. He's still just 30. It's baffling, but he must be one of those guys who's 40 when he's 25. You know, those guys. Smrt: Honestly, the vast majority of the preview. I was pretty on point with the Twins going into 2013. I had low expectations, but felt the team had gotten better organizationally. I thought the offense would struggle and the pitching would be basically the same as it had been in 2012. I thought the bullpen was good and I thought that the good players would be good players. The problem was that there weren't a lot of good players on the team. Here is how I ended my preview: Predicted Division Finish - 5th. Twins fans, it hurts. Three straight last place finishes is on no one’s wish list. However, one more bad season might be it. There are really exciting players coming up through the farm system, and quite a few will be in Minnesota by 2014. If things really click, the 2014 Twins could resemble the 2001 team that put this franchise back on the map after nearly a decade of losing. Don’t lose hope and faith in this franchise. All teams go through this (except the Yankees). If you stick with this team, your patience will pay off. I still believe all of that. I truly believe that 2014 could be the start of a turnaround. A lot rides on the moves made this off-season and the development of the organization's prospects, but 2014 could be a real turning point. Next off-season, this paragraph could look ridiculous, but I'm not so sure it will. I may be overly optimistic, but I don't think this is a basement-level franchise in the long-term. I'm excited to write a 2014 preview. The moves made this off-season will dictate whether 2014 is a 2001 or another 2013.

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Four or five times actually. Although, it's pretty hard to remember after the first time.

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Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! State of the Team 1992 Record: 90-72, second in the AL West 1992 Overview: An extremely solid season that took place before 10 teams made the playoffs. 1993 Outlook: Great...so long as they re-sign their best player. Players Lost - Free Agency The Twins lost three important players during the '92 off-season: their long-time starting shortstop, a key offensive contributor to the '91 champs and the team's best starter in '92. Losing Greg Gagne was much more significant than it likely seemed at the time. Gagne had been the Twins' starting shortstop since 1985. He was never a great offensive player, but his defense was more than steady. I did some research last Winter and found that shortstops as good as Gagne are a lot more rare than we may think. Since Gagne, the Twins have not had a quality shortstop for more than a year at a time. Gagne was the smallest of the three names that left the Twins this offseason, but he was probably the most significant piece when you consider that almost 20 years later, the Twins have still not fully replaced him. The other two big names were Chili Davis and John Smiley, who only played three combined seasons for the Twins. Smiley was outstanding in 1992 and no one on the roster could replace his production in '93. His loss was probably the biggest reason why the Twins dropped off as much as they did. Chili Davis posted an OPS+ of 130 in 1992. No Twin reached that mark in 1993. Of course, the Twins did have a plan to replace Davis at DH and I'll have more on that in a bit. The Twins also released Cory Lidle during the 1992 off-season. Lidle was an undrafted free agent and didn't do much in the Minors with the Twins. However, he would eventually re-kindle his career and win 82 games before tragically dying in a plane crash at the age of 34. Players Gained - Free Agency Just six days after losing Chili Davis to the Angels, the Minnesota Twins signed Minnesota Dave Winfield. Winfield was pretty good in 1993, posting a 105 OPS+. Of course, that was a major downgrade from Chili Davis in '92. Winfield did collect his 3000th hit with the Twins on September 16, which was fun. The Twins also added Jim Deshaies, likely in an attempt to replace some of what John Smiley provided in '92. Didn't work. Deshaies was fine, posting a 99 ERA+, but didn't last through the whole season, as the Twins traded him to the Giants. Check back next week to see if the Twins decide to bring him back for '94. Cliffhanger! Not really. The biggest free agent was one of their own. Kirby Puckett re-signed with the Twins on December 4, 1992, saving the Twins from having to replace their best and most popular player and saving my mother from having to hear me cry for the next five years. Puckett could have made more money in Boston, but would have missed the beautiful Fall season in Minnesota. Pat Meares replaced Greg Gagne for the next six seasons. Not ideal, but what can you do? TRADEZ! Just one day after re-signing Puckett, the Twins front office was on such a high that they had to make a trade. The Twins shipped Disappointing David West to the Phillies for Mike Hartley. West had his best season in 1993, because his entire career was created to upset Twins fans. Hartley was fine as a middle reliever, throwing 81 innings with a 4.00 ERA. I appreciate his ability to end with a round figure. In Spring Training, the Twins struck again! They traded Gary Wayne, Gary Wayne's beautiful face and Bob Wassenaar to the Rockies for Brett Merriman. Merriman was awful and he never once appeared on a 1991 Score baseball card that generated at least two blog posts for me. Useless. http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-K2BwT4DnygA/UYklyS39rBI/AAAAAAAAAok/VN4-LPkj67Y/s320/IMG_0669.JPG Biggest Splash Re-signing Kirby Puckett was huge. Sadly, the Twins were terrible for the rest of his career, so it wasn't huge on the field. Off the field, Puckett was clearly the most popular player on the team and a huge link to the glory days that would soon seem long gone. Once Kirby was gone, there was little reason to watch this team in the late 90s. Biggest Miss Letting Gagne go didn't work out very well. Gagne basically had four more Gagne seasons after leaving Minnesota. He out-WARed Pat Meares 8.7 to 3.6. Although Meares was loads cheaper. $$$$ My Own Personal Cheer I probably would have followed Puckett to Boston, so I'm grateful that I didn't have to move in the middle of 5th grade. EXPANSION DRAFT! The '92 off-season was even more significant because the Rockies and Marlins were joining Major League Baseball in '93. Therefore, the Twins had to expose some players to the expansion draft. They ended up losing Jayhawk Owens, Curt Leskanic and Tom Edens. Leskanic eventually became a reliable reliever and Edens wasn't terrible, but no big losses here. Arbitrary Overall Assessment: B- They get an A for re-signing Kirby Puckett, a decent mark for signing Winfield, but mostly Fs for the rest. I grade on a curve, so the average is better than it should be. Next week, we'll look at the 1993 off-season. See you then!

Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! So, I guess I have to be the one to do this, huh? No one else wants to write this? No one will take the obvious grief that will accompany the following 800 or so words. I guess in some way it makes sense. I do hold the distinction for having the least reliable and most obnoxious Twins blog in the stratosphere (using a word like stratosphere is obnoxious). Although, I am more known for putting Twins player heads on bird bodies and writing about chance encounters with talking pumas, so I can't imagine that anyone comes to this blog for actual Twins roster coverage. It doesn't really add up. I'm going to do it anyway: The Twins should sign Robinson Cano. There, I said it and now no one else has to. All you gutless members of the lamestream media can retreat to your cushy mansions and eat your duck eggs or whatever and I'll do all the controversial "reporting." I'll take the heat; enjoy your cashmere. Fact: The Twins have the money. With Justin Morneau ($14 million), Nick Blackburn ($5 million), and Mike Pelfrey ($4 million) coming off the books, the Twins have $23 million to spend, not even accounting for the money they were under budget last season. It's estimated that the Twins will have $40-50 million to spend this off-season. If that's the case, they could easily throw $25-30 million at Cano and add an MVP quality bat to the lineup for the next half-decade. The tough part is convincing Cano to answer a phone call from the Twins, much less signing an actual contract. Therefore, the Twins have to overpay. Here's what I would offer: Austin Powers is 16 years old?!? Yeah baby. Actually, I'd offer 10 years, $300 million. Now, just calm down for one moment. I'm not crazy and you should keep reading. Here's the case for Cano: He's really freaking good. I get all the reasons not to sign him: he's going to be 31 in a couple weeks, he's super expensive, the Twins don't really need a second baseman, he doesn't pitch, he smells like Yankees...I just think the positives outweigh the negatives. The Twins would be adding a second perennial MVP candidate to their lineup, along with a premier defensive player. Let's get back to that phone call I mentioned. What would happen if Terry Ryan called up Cano in a misguided attempt to actually woo him to Minnesota? I think it might go down like this: Robinson, how are you today, it's Terry Ryan...No Terry Taylor was the Red Rooster, how do you know about that? I'm Terry Ryan, Twins General Manager...Minnesota Twins...It's in the North...You come here every year...Yes, it's cold, but not in the summer...Sure, there are penguins everywhere. Look, we want to offer you a contract to play for the Twins...Yes, we are a baseball team...Joe Mauer...Yeah, sideburns. Listen, we have a what I think is a very fair offer for you. We're building a winner here. We want to add you to a lineup with Mauer, with Miguel Sano, with Byron Buxton. We're going to have a powerful lineup and we want you to be a part of it...No, it's not Canada, just one set of taxes...I mean, some penguins...We can work out the logistics later, but we want to offer you a ten year contract worth a total of $300 million...No, you can live wherever you want, you just have to play here...I have never seen an igloo...Yep, actual houses...Sure, how many penguins? And so on. Basically, you give in to his demands and you pay him a lofty salary and you get another MVP on this team. Of course, I can hear it now..."But (sniffle) what about Brian Dooooooooozier (sniffle) (tear)?" I like Brian Dozier. He's great. His hair is beautiful. However, he's not the type of player that would keep me from looking at someone like Cano. You can still upgrade second base; Dozier isn't the best guy at that position. Plus, are we 100% sure that Dozier can't play short? I thought a lot of his struggles in 2012 were mental, not physical. What if we just move Dozier to short, use Florimon as a super-utility guy and dominate the American League like champs do? Peep this potential lineup (likely around midseason when Buxton and Sano are ready): Byron Buxton - CF Joe Mauer - 1B Josh Willingham - DH (if there is a God) ROBINSON CANO AND HIS MVPNESS - 2B Miguel Sano - 3B Oswaldo Arcia - LF Brian Dozier - SS Josmil Pinto - C Aaron Hicks - RF Hot dog. That lineup is fresh. Now, much of the 2014 season would be played without that lineup, but you could conceivably run that lineup out for the 2015 season, with some other guy in place of Josh Willingham. Perhaps you blow another 30 mil the following off-season on someone. Another point: You can deal with Mauer's lack of "power" (which isn't even true, he lacks home run power, but still slugs .450ish every year) because you'd get so much power from your second baseman. It's a trade-off, and we all need to learn to make trade-offs. Logical retort to all of this: Cano doesn't pitch, you dingus. True. I can't argue with that. I looked very closely at Cano's Baseball Reference page AND his FanGraphs page and I can find no evidence that he is a pitcher. Thus, the Twins' starting pitching would still be a problem. Remember, they're only spending $30 mil on Cano. That still leaves $10-20 mil for a good starter, a decent starter, some snacks and a Playstation 4. Why not grab Cano, add Matt Garza, pick up Scott Feldman and get ready to roll. It's all so simple! Overpaying for Robinson Cano is not the Twins' way. It would be the single most shocking moment of my life, and I've been struck by lightning four times. It would be such a departure from "business as usual" and it would really build some interest in the brand. If the Twins can execute this maneuver, they would instantly become the most interesting franchise in baseball. Signing Robinson Cano is a social contract with the fans and I would love to sign on that dotted line. Now, who wants to help me track down some penguins?

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Originally posted at K-Slow was Framed! YOYOYO everybody! The offseason is upon us and the Twins have a lot of work to do. Coming off of another raging failure, the Front Office will need to pull off some sweet moves in order to make this team a contender. I have no clue what they will do and I have no desire to guess (at least not until later). Instead, I thought it would be fun to head back down Memory Lane and analyze each offseason since the Twins' last World Series. I'm not going to get too bogged down in the minor moves, but I'll investigate the moves that shaped the franchise and led us to where we are today. Strap in. State of the Team 1991 Record: 95-67, first in the American League! 1991 Overview: Uh, they won the World Series, which is pretty good. 1992 Outlook: Strong Players Lost - Free Agency The Twins lost a starting outfielder, a workhorse starting pitcher, a former ERA champion, and a guy who once caught a ball while running on the rolled-up tarp (at least, that's how I remember it). Dan Gladden wasn't very good by 1991. His 80 OPS+ in 1991 was brutal and his defense wasn't great. He only made slightly over a million bucks, but that was a decent chunk of cash in those days. The Twins basically replaced Gladden with Pedro Munoz, who posted a 96 OPS+ in 1992. Munoz had more power, but somehow was worse at getting on-base. Kind of a wash, but at least Munoz was younger/cheaper. Jack Morris' last act of business with the Twins was pitching 10 innings in Game 7 and leaving with a World Series win. Morris was basically a mercenary and left after one historic season. The Twins basically replaced him with John Smiley (more on him later) and Smiley was great. Morris' 1991 and Smiley's 1992 were eerily similar, although Smiley was 10 years younger. The Twins also lost Allan Anderson, who had won the ERA title in 1988 and won 33 games between 1988 and 1989. He also hadn't pitched well since then. Al Newman and Junior Ortiz left, but they were bench players. They also lost Steve Bedrosian and Terry Leach from the bullpen. Players Gained - Free Agency The Twins did not make a big splash in free agency. I know. I'm shocked too. Although, the year before, they had signed Chili Davis and Jack Morris, so maybe this isn't a fair fake shock at this time. The Twins did bring Brian Harper and Mike Pagliarulo back. Harper was his typical mustachioed, high-contact self and Pagliarulo was just mustachioed and literally nothing else. Here's a list of players the Twins signed during this offseason: Bob Kipper, Luis Quinones, Mauro Gozzo, Donnie Hill, Keith Hughes and Bill Krueger. It's hard to add that much talent and incorporate it successfully within the existing team. Krueger was decent, going 10-6 with a 4.30 ERA in 27 starts. Kipper was ok, with a 4.42 ERA in 38.2 innings. The other four guys made little impact. Although, Gozzo didn't walk a single batter in 1992! What control! He only threw 1.2 innings and gave up seven hits, but still, no walks! Reverse Moneyball! Plus, he has a great name. TRADEZ! Trades are exciting. The Twins made two significant trades during the 1991 offseason and both trades happened during Spring Training. On March 17, 1992, the Twins traded Midre Cummings and Denny Neagle to the Pirates for John Smiley. As I stated earlier, Smiley was great for the Twins in 1992. He replaced Jack Morris handily. Of course, he left for the Reds after the '92 season, so that kind of sucked. Cummings had a long career, mostly as a reserve. NBD. The Twins may regret trading Neagle though. It took a few years, but Neagle blossomed into a really good pitcher. From 1995-2000, he was 89-47 and posted a 3.64 ERA in just under 1200 innings. You may remember 1995-2000 as the "whatever the opposite of glory years" era of Twins baseball. Less than two weeks later, the Twins traded Paul Sorrento to the Indians for Curt Leskanic and Oscar Munoz. Leskanic never pitched for the Twins and Munoz threw 35.1 mediocre innings in 1995. Sorrento was blocked by Kent Hrbek, so it made sense to get some value for him. Sorrento wasn't a bad player though. For the next six seasons, he posted a .267/.347/.477 triple slash, hit 129 home runs and had 439 RBI. From 1992-1994, Sorrento and Hrbek were basically the same offensive player. Hrbek had a slightly higher OBP, but Sorrento had a better batting average. Both hit 50 home runs and drove in around 190. Both had a 112 OPS+. Sorrento was six years younger and quite a bit cheaper. I'm not saying, I'm just saying. Biggest Splash The Smiley trade qualifies as a splash. Smiley made $3.4 million and cost the team two decent prospects. He was coming off a 20-win season and a third place Cy Young finish. The trade worked out really well in 1992, but definitely hurt in the long-term. Had the Twins extended Smiley, it might look different in hindsight. Smiley was awful in 1993 (likely because he missed the culture of the Twin Cities), but then great from 1994-1996. Back to '92, the Twins lost Morris and needed a replacement to defend their World Series crown. Smiley fit the bill quite nicely. Biggest Miss The Twins gave Bob Kipper a million bucks and I can't really see why. I'm not old enough to remember Kipper, but looking at his Baseball Reference page, I can't figure out why he was worth signing. I know the Twins had lost Bedrosian and Leach, but Kipper just doesn't look good on paper. He wasn't awful, but he wasn't good either. Kipper was fine until July, when he completely fell apart. The Twins released him on July 31 and he never pitched another MLB inning. He literally disappeared (not literally, or at all). My Own Personal Heartbreak I was ten, Dan Gladden had a mullet and I was only human. Gladden leaving saddened me. Arbitrary Overall Assessment: C+ The Twins didn't do anything of note, but they did replace Morris with Smiley. The team was already really talented, so that, plus minor tweaks was really all that needed to be done. Did it work out? Well, somewhat. The '92 Twins were really good, just not as good as the A's. They missed the playoffs and wouldn't get back for over a decade. Next week, we'll look at the 1992 offseason. See you then!

99% of my humor is homophone-related.

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You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=2390-October-Mailbag!

Originally posted at The Slow I can't believe that October is upon us! The 2013 season went by so quickly. I am already enjoying playoff baseball and I thought that while I enjoy playoff baseball, I could answer a few questions that have been burning a hole in my inbox. As always, these are actual questions from actual readers of the Word documents that I use to compose my rough drafts. What is your outlook for the 2014 Twins? Brad S., St. Paul, MN Initially, I thought that 2014 would be that year when the team starts to get good. I kind of envisioned a 2001 Twins team of sorts, where they are better than they had been, but still not good enough to make the playoffs. My expectations have changed a bit, mostly because the Major League team was so bad in the second half of 2013. However, I do hold out hope that the 2014 Twins could win 75-81 games. A lot depends on what the Twins do in free agency and with trades this off-season. If they can make some smart trades and pick up a piece or two, I think a 10-15 game improvement is possible. The Twins were 36-45 after 81 games. That 72-win pace doesn't meet my 75-81 number, but it shows that for half of the season, the Twins weren't terrible, they were just bad. Of course, the second half did happen and they only won 30 more games, for a 60-win pace. With a healthy Joe Mauer (hopefully), natural development from rookies like Oswaldo Arcia, Josmil Pinto, Aaron Hicks and Kyle Gibson, and the Twins' solid bullpen, I think the team can be a lot better than they were in 2013. If the Front Office picks up a good starting pitcher, then I really do think that 81 wins is possible. Likely? No. Brad, you are my idle. I kneed to know, who are you rooting for in the playoffs? Brad S., St. Paul, MN I tend to root for fan bases instead of teams. I am a fan, not a team. So, I usually gravitate toward the teams with the most tortured fan base. Generally, I pull for the team with the longest championship drought. I do have some exceptions though: I can't openly root for New York, Boston, Chicago or Los Angeles. Those fan bases have too many other successful teams in other sports. So, the Red Sox and Dodgers are out. I don't care for the Tomahawk Chop, so the Braves are out. It's a political stance I suppose, but really I just find it annoying. The Cardinals won a World Series like five days ago, so they're out. Technically, the Tigers have the longest World Series drought of all the AL teams. They also have a player on their team who I am not fond of. He shall remain nameless, in case his family reads this. Let's just say, I've heard things. Unpleasant things. The Rays have never won a World Series, so they seem like the logical pick. However, their fans are kind of sucky and the team hasn't been around very long. That leaves the Pirates in the NL and Oakland in the AL. Pittsburgh fits because they have a tortured fan base. Although, it is worth mentioning that the Steelers and Penguins have been really good the past decade. A Pittsburgh-Oakland World Series would be an advertiser's nightmare, but I would eat it up. I love how rowdy the Oakland fans are. Plus, have you been to Oakland? Would you go back? Let's give them something to enjoy. I can only assume that some other idiot will ask you who you are rooting for in the playoffs, but I want to know who you think will win the 2013 World Series. Mostly so I can point out how wrong you were when it doesn't happen. Brad S's Mom, St. Paul, MN I'll start by eliminating teams for arbitrary reasons: Tigers - Miguel Cabrera is hurt Red Sox - Clam chowder is gross A's - Moneyball Pirates - Tired of plundering Cardinals - They're old? They're probably old. Braves - Tomahawk chop again That leaves the Rays and the Dodgers. I like the Dodgers because they have Clayton Kershaw and I like the Rays because they are the smartest team in the history of civilization and they embrace math. If I was going to send my child to a school run by one of these teams, I'd pick the Rays. This isn't school! It's baseball, nerd! The Dodgers win because they know how to be cool. Yasiel Puig and whatnot. Do you know any talking pumas who also write about the Twins? Brad S., St. Paul, MN I actually did meet some talking pumas recently. In fact, I convinced each of them to write a Twins' 2013 season summary. Paul is an eternal optimist and you can read his review here. Peter says he's more realistic, but sometimes I think he's just negative. You can read his review here. If you enjoy their opinions, check in with my blog as I am working out twin 8 year, $184 million contracts for Paul and Peter to contribute regularly. The Twins outrighted Cole De Vries, Shairon Martis, Clete Thomas and Josh Roenicke from the 40-man roster earlier this week. Who will be joining them on the wrong side of the 40-man before the start of 2014? Brad S., St. Paul, MN Those four guys are a good start. You won't regret losing any of them, if another team is doing a bunch of drugs and decides to claim them. If I had to guess, I'd say that the following fellows will be joining them at some point in the near future: B.J. Hermsen, Eric Fryer, Doug Bernier, and Darin Mastroianni. It's not a huge list and it's probably incomplete. I think that if the Twins need roster spots, there are plenty of other guys who could be gone. Mike Pelfrey shouldn't be retained, but who knows? There are plenty of replaceable guys on this team, that's why they haven't eclipsed 66 wins since 2010. Are you surprised that Ron Gardenhire will manage the Twins in 2014? Brad S., St. Paul, MN Not in the least. The Twins organization is very loyal and I think we all know that at this point. In some ways, it's a heelish move. I think the general fan attitude was that a change was needed or "heads should roll" if you prefer ancient justice to tactful sentiments. It could be that the team made this decision to stick it to the fans. More likely, it seems that this was a move made out of loyalty. I guess that's fine. It's not the statement that I would try to make though. If I had been the GM, here's how I would have handled Gardy's extension. Step 1 - Announce that the team has a new manager, but that he prefers to work under a mask Step 2 - Introduce said manager at an elaborate press conference Step 3 - Invite a fan to shake hands with the new manager at the press conference Step 4 - After the handshake, crush the fan over the head with the Golden Septor Step 5 - Call for the new manager to unmask, revealing Ron Gardenhire, but with a shaved head and black goatee Step 6 - Mudhole stomp the fan for 3-5 minutes, with Rick Anderson helping stomp the mudhole Step 7 - Declare Gardenhire the "Macho King" Ron Gardenhire and proceed with the season as such For me, that's just a better way to do things. I hate to question the Front Office though. I'm a traditionalist. Thanks for all the questions! If you ever truly want to ask me a question, you can send me an email at this fancy new email address: kevinsloweywasframed@gmail.com. Or, you can send me spam like everyone else.

You're back! I always enjoy your positive reports. It's nice to read about the future and learn about these future Twins.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=2378-Monday-Morning-Madness-September-30-2013

Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! It's been said that all good things must come to an end. Sadly, this will be the final Monday Madness of the 2013 season. I know. Don't blame me though; I'm not the one who decided against a 12 month MLB season. It's time for a break from Twins baseball. After the month of September that we've all endured, a little break might not be the worst thing. I'll try to infuse some fun and positivity in this final Monday Madness of the 2013 season. The Gardy 1000 Well, that was a huge embarrassing failure. Wait, I said I'd be positive. Um. The Twins made a valiant effort to get Ron Gardenhire his 1000th career win. They needed to go 3-4 this week and they only missed it by 2 games. Two isn't bad. That's only about 1% of a season. It's such a small sample. Josmil Pinto Here's some real positivity. Josmil Pinto had a wonderful September debut. In fact, only Chris Parmelee has had a better September debut than Pinto, when looking at OPS and only including players with 50 plate appearances in September. We can ignore the Parmelee part, but knowing that Pinto looks good makes me feel good about next season. Having Pinto gives the Twins more options at catcher. If the Twins can enjoy another 3-5 years of above-average offensive production from their catcher, the rebuild will be somewhat easier. Mike Pelfrey A recent Terry Ryan interview shocked and awed everyone when he admitted that he was interested in bringing Mike Pelfrey back for the 2014 season. Pelfrey hasn't been a highlight of the 2013 season. He's been one of the more frustrating players for me to watch. He dug himself a big hole in April and May; did he dig out of it? [TABLE=class: grid, width: 492] [/TD][TD]April May June July August September ERA 7.66 5.90 4.66 3.25 3.60 7.45 WHIP 1.93 1.66 1.24 1.34 1.40 1.86 K% 6.5 14.5 15.4 18.1 14.4 21.3 BB% 6.5 9.2 2.6 7.8 10.5 7.5 K:BB Ratio 1.0 1.58 6.00 2.33 1.38 2.86 BABIP .370 .337 .333 .309 .279 .431 LOB% 54.7 69.1 62.0 83.3 74.7 56.2 xFIP 5.57 5.11 3.18 4.45 4.74 3.63 [/TABLE] Well, kind of. In April and May he was a disaster. In June, he was pretty good. He didn't walk anyone, but he was a bit unlucky so his ERA wasn't great. In July, he was worse, but had some strand rate luck and looked better than he actually was. He was pretty bad in August, but finally got some good BABIP luck. In September, he's been pretty poor again, but has a crazy high BABIP and has been generally unpleasant to watch. Basically, he's been really inconsistent. The only reason to sign a guy like Pelfrey for another year would be if you could rely on him for consistently decent innings. The Twins can't rely on him for that. Cut him loose. Oh, and dig up, stupid. Madness Fun Stat Anthony Swarzak threw 96 innings this season without starting a single game. This has only happened 461 times since 1901. Juan Berenguer accomplished this feat in 1989 and 1990 and no one had done it in a Twins' uniform since then. No one in baseball had done this since 2006, when Scott Proctor threw 102.1 innings without starting. Swarzak is a rare bird, especially in this current era. Random Paint Image The Playoffs are starting this week and that means National Coverage. No more Dick and Bert, no more Coom-dog, no more Anthony LaPanda. Here's a dramatization of what I think could happen during the TBS studio show, if things really fall apart. http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ghgPaY_jRe4/UkiFf4e5_qI/AAAAAAAABCc/HEaSgMTTIPo/s320/Gallagher.png Look, if you don't get that reference, then you clearly didn't watch as much Comedy Central as I did as a kid and you don't think Dennis Eckersley looks like a certain watermelon-smashing comedian like I do. And really, that's your problem. Former Twin Update - Francisco Liriano Francisco Liriano finished the 2013 season with 16 wins and an ERA just slightly above 3. He has been one of the major reasons why the Pirates season is still in progress. In fact, he'll start the Wild Card game on Tuesday against the Reds and their lefty-heavy lineup. Lefties have hit .131/.175/.146 against Liriano in 138 plate appearances this season. Before the season, who would have ever thought that Francisco Liriano would be starting a playoff game in 2013? Answer to a Hypothetical Facebook Question Nope, not today. It's impossible to find anything positive on the Twins Facebook page. It's my problem really. I only go there for this bit, so it only affects me once a week at most. I can handle complaints. I can handle negativity. I can't handle hostility. There isn't a single Twins fan who has any right to be hostile. No one should be calling Joe Mauer a wimp. No one should be calling for Gardy and Anderson to be hit with bricks. Since 99% of the Facebook comments are hostile, I'm not doing it today. Instead, I asked my 8-year-old cousin to give his thoughts on the Twins' 2013 season: "It was really fun. I actually got to go to two games! They won the second game!" Off-season Plans Monday Madness is ending for the year, but I've got loads of off-season stuff planned. I've got recaps, pumas, predictions, previews, video games, candy, treats, ice cream, lobster and much, much more. This week, I've got two guest columnists doing season recaps and I have a mailbag coming on Friday. I'm going to try to have some fun this off-season, if you want to join me. Parting Thought The Twins 2013 season was unpleasant. The franchise is in a better place than it was in 2012, but there is still a lot of work to be done. I'll do as much work as the Twins allow me, but a more likely scenario would involve the Twins' current decision makers working to improve the team. I have confidence. I think that strides were made this year that weren't seen on the field. If the organization continues down a similar path, I believe the Twins will be a good team in the near future. I've always held that 2014 will be the first year in the on-field turnaround and I stand by that. I really feel that we just suffered through the last 90-loss season for awhile. If I'm wrong, you can all hurl tomatoes at me when I run on the field during a 2015 game. Have a nice off-season, everyone!

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=2370-Awardin-2013-The-American-League!

I wish I was qualified to answer that question. Is it possible that the Rays traded for Myers to corner the market on upright batting stances? Have we hit on the next market inefficiency?

Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! Welcome back to Award Season! In my previous installment, I handed out the major NL awards. If you missed it, click here. I also lamented the lack of an actual Awards Ceremony for these important honors. Think of the bowties and suspenders we are missing out on! Danny Valencia would look great in a suit, but he wouldn't get invited to the ceremony so we're kind of just back where we started, aren't we? AL Breakout Player Preseason Pick - Matt Moore Midseason Pick - Josh Donaldson Who should win? - Josh Donaldson Who will win? - This is not a real award. One of the easiest ways to totally nail an awards prediction is to make up an award. In this case, I failed to accurately predict an award that I created. Matt Moore has been great. He's won a bunch of games, has a pretty sweet ERA and a winning smile. He also leads the league with 17 wild pitches. This is the breakout player award, not the "break stuff with your wild pitches" award, Matt! Lol. If I'm going to be real here, he's got a great case for this fake award. He just wasn't as good as Josh Donaldson. Donaldson has been amazing. Now, some might argue that Donaldson broke out last season, but I'd say that going from 1.5 fWAR to 7.7 fWAR counts as an additional breakout. Donaldson is a legitimate MVP candidate on one of the best teams in baseball. He's slugging over .500 and has an OBP approaching .400. He's been extremely valuable to the Athletics and he has had a superstar season. I'm really proud of him. AL Rookie of the Year Preseason Pick - Wil Myers Midseason Pick - Aaron Hicks Who should win? - Wil Myers Who will win? - Wil Myers LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL! I refuse to provide any context for that mid-season Aaron Hicks selection. I want the record to show that despite Hicks' sub-.200 batting average, despite his extremely poor plate discipline, despite his recent hamstring injury, I STILL thought he would pull out of it and win this award. Choosing Hicks for AL ROY at the beginning of the year would have been a justifiable, but homer-ish pick. At the All Star Break? Stupid homer pick. Stomer Pick. Stomer Simpson Pick. Just hilarious. I'm so glad I did that. Scrapbook!!!! The real winner is likely to come from the Tampa Bay Rays. There are two reasonable candidates, and a third if you include Royals' outfielder David Lough. He's lougher on my list though. OHOOHOHOHOHHH! Lough has been a good defender, but his offensive stats offend me. For me, the award comes down to Wil Myers and Chris Archer. Both guys have played about a half-season. Both guys have been good, but not great. When you look at their peripheral stats, Archer has been good, but maybe a bit lucky, while Myers has been just good. He's slugging close to .500 and showing good plate discipline. He's got a wRC+ around 130. Archer has been good as well. His slightly higher than 3 ERA proves that. However, his BABIP is .245 and that points toward some luck being involved. With both guys so close in performance, I'll break the tie by looking at one of the most controversial stats that exists. There's no way that leads to any sort of discussion or argument. Myers' WAR is higher. There. AL Cy Young Award Preseason Pick - Justin Verlander Midseason Pick - Felix Hernandez Who should win? - Max Scherzer Who will win? - Max Scherzer This is a tough one. Verlander has had a nice season, just nothing special. Anibal Sanchez has probably been the most impressive overall pitcher, but he won't reach 200 innings, which hurts his chances. Doug Fister, Hisashi Iwakuma, Jon Lester and James Shields have all been great. I'd be more inclined to vote for Bartolo Colon if he went by "Bart Colon" and asked us to call him "Big Bart." That act would pretty much cinch my vote for the next few decades. However, I can't get over the lack of strikeouts, the fact that he won't hit 200 innings and the fact that he won't embrace the Big Bart persona. You gotta start eliminatin' somewhere, Big Bart. At the All-Star Break, Felix Hernandez had seized this award in my eyes. He was pitching as well as he had ever pitched and he was already one of the best pitchers of our generation. Since the Break, he hasn't been as great and he was injured for a significant time. He's still tied for second in fWAR for all AL pitchers, but his overall numbers aren't so dominant that he stands out among the rest. I think you can still make a strong case for Hernandez, but he's part of the conversation instead of leading it. Here's the whole conversation: It comes down to Felix, Chris Sale, Yu Darvish and Max Scherzer. I think Scherzer wins the actual vote for sure. His overall numbers are great and the win total will get him a lot of votes. I think the path to get to Scherzer is a lot more complicated than "21 wins is a lot." Who do I like? Here's how I feel: Darvish is the most dominant of the four. His K% is 32.7%, by far the highest of the four. He also issues the most walks of the four, which takes him down a bit in my eyes. In fact, his BB% is at least 50% greater than the other three. Darvish has the highest strand rate of the four, at a staggering 83.9%. Of course, his high strikeout totals will inflate that rate. Rhyming is cool, but I'm removing Darvish from this conversation, even though he's had a great season. Hernandez, Sale and Scherzer have been extremely similar pitchers this season. Just look at this chart: [TABLE=class: grid, width: 500] [/TD][TD]Scherzer Sale Hernandez Innings 214.1 209 198.1 K% 28.7 26.3 26.3 BB% 6.7 5.4 5.6 ERA 2.90 2.97 2.99 xFIP 3.16 2.94 2.67 BABIP 0.259 0.282 0.315 LOB% 74.4 77.7 75.3 Win-Loss 21-3 11-13 12-9 [/TABLE] Ridiculous. All three have elite strikeout and walk rates. Each has a good ERA and an xFIP that confirms it. Scherzer's BABIP is a bit lower, but his LOB% is also lower. If those two things somewhat cancel each other out, then each has been equal parts good and equal parts lucky. Well, maybe Scherzer has been a bit "luckier" than Sale and Hernandez. I like peripheral stats when predicting for the future, but I like traditional stats when it's time to evaluate actual performance. Maybe that puts be a few years behind the curve, but I like to reward players for what they actually accomplish, not what we think they should have accomplished. Ok, we have to start eliminating players, so Hernandez is out due to the slightly lower innings total. This hurts me as I love King Felix and I think he is the best overall pitcher in the American League. If I had to predict who would be the best pitcher next year, I'd take Hernandez. That being said... Sale v. Scherzer in the finals! The question is, can you really vote for a guy with an 11-13 record over a guy with a 21-3 record when the two are so similar in every other way? Sale might have been a slightly better pitcher this year, but can you completely ignore Scherzer's wins? I can't. I just can't do it. I want to, but I can't. So, for the record: Best AL Pitcher right now: Felix Hernandez - loses this award because he got injured Best AL Pitcher this season: Chris Sale - but ever so slightly AL Cy Young Award Winner - Max Scherer - and he deserves it for more than just those 21 wins. I don't think pitcher wins are the devil, but I don't look at them first. Everything needs a line of succession. If Obama can't fulfill his duties, Biden's in charge. If Biden can't, we call on Boehner. If enough guys get debilitating food poisoning that everyone secretly thinks could be malaria, then Doug, your local garbage man takes over. Meet Pitcher Wins: The Doug the Garbage Man of pitching stats. You don't want him running the country, but in the pinchiest of pinches, you'll have to make due. This concludes the convoluted metaphor section of our exercise. Scherzer wins. AL MVP Preseason Pick - Evan Longoria Midseason Pick - Miguel Cabrera Who should win? - Mike Trout Who will win? - Miguel Cabrera First off, in any other season and under any other circumstances, Josh Donaldson would be right in this conversation. However, the Trout v. Cabrera Round 2 storyline is just too juicy for writers. I guarantee Donaldson will get a lot less publicity than he probably deserves. He's been outstanding and should be just below Cabrera and Trout in this debate. Deep breath. We did this last year, and all the arguments are basically the same: The Tigers made the playoffs; the Angels didn't Cabrera is the best hitter in baseball Trout is a better overall player, when you consider defense and fielding Of course, Trout has actually improved as a hitter this year, significantly boosting his walk rate and significantly cutting his strikeout rate. His defensive ratings are still good, but not elite this year and he isn't running as much. Some of that change in running is due to his change from leadoff to third in the lineup, but that does count for something. Trout is basically having the exact same amazing season he had last year, just with more walks. If he didn't already command the presence of the saber community, those extra walks sealed his seal deal. Cabrera, on the other hand, did not win the Triple Crown this year. He might lose some votes due to that, which is insane. He's been a better hitter this year in just about every category - batting average, OBP, slugging, and he's right in the same neighborhood in runs, home runs and RBI. The only difference? Chris Davis hit over 50 home runs. That's it. Did Chris Davis' power breakout make Cabrera a worse hitter? Nope, but some will honestly lean on the "no Triple Crown" crutch when they change their vote from Cabrera as MVP in 2012 to Trout as MVP in 2013, when basically nothing else has changed. It's lunacy. I would have voted for Trout last year, for the same reasons why I would vote for him this year. He's a better overall baseball player. His offensive contribution is only slightly smaller than Cabrera's, but the value he adds on defense and on the base paths tips the scales toward him. That's how I felt in 2012, and that's how I feel right now. Just like last year, I don't think Cabrera is an undeserving winner, I just feel that Trout is better. This is Flair-Steamboat back in the 60 minute iron man days. This is Ali-Frazier, it's Agassi-Sampras, it's Kobe-LeBron, it's really good bowling guy-really good bowling guy. No one loses in this situation. We get to watch two of the greatest players of this generation duke it out for one of the most prestigious awards in sports. Regardless of whether your candidate wins, just remember that these are two outstanding players. One has to win and the other has to lose, but they both deserve careful consideration and serious props. That's a wrap! Wait, this is a wrap: http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-fLRBnpFydBw/UkR-a7dxdyI/AAAAAAAABB8/cOTyTpCqW9A/s1600/Easy_Turkey_Wrap_Sandwich.jpg I really enjoyed the 2013 MLB season. There were plenty of award-worthy performances, but just not enough awards to go around. If I ever find my way to Head of State, I will replace all games with award ceremonies. That way, we can truly recognize these great athletes. Even better, I'll just cozy up to Doug and see if I can get him to enact these policies for me.