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2wins87

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Everything posted by 2wins87

  1. 2wins87
    About 16%, which is pretty solid; well below average for the league.
  2. 2wins87
    Stewart has struggled with his K/BB ratio for a while, but he has consistently been a guy who induces a lot of groundballs vs flyballs. BABIP will tend to be higher on GB, though slugging (and obviously HRs) will be higher on FB. He might be the kind of guy who can give up quite a few hits but usually limit the damage. I'm mostly just watching his K/BB rate this year, and while I'm not ready to put him back among the top prospects in the organization, I am pretty encouraged so far that he may still actually have an MLB future.
  3. 2wins87
    I've got $150K for Graterol, though I couldn't tell you where any of the contract notes I have jotted down came from.
  4. 2wins87
    The problem wasn't just hits but that everything that was hit was being hit hard. Only one XBH today is an encouraging sign. The 5 HR in his first 18 or so innings was a little worrying.
  5. 2wins87
    Also Adalberto Mejia, who's yet to find his command this year. Actually at the beginning of the season the discussion was about the logjam of AAA quality pitching, with Gonsalves and Littell being sent to AA. There have been some underperformances with Mejia and Enns especially. Their rotation is fine for AAA, it's just a question of how well they'll perform in the majors if called upon.
  6. 2wins87
    Nice to see there's not too much rust for Kirilloff. A good season could really establish him as a leader of the next wave of youth with Lewis.
  7. 2wins87
    I think in a few years, with more research into the subject, we'll find it weird how plate discipline was separated out as a different thing from other tools. My impression, given the split second decision making involved, is that it is very much like other tools, in that it can be improved through training and practice, but is not something that can just be taught. And we will find that there are certain players that are just gifted with better natural ability in this area, whether through genetics or development in their younger days. Also, my impression of Wade is that he has enough power that he could be a decently well rounded hitter, though certainly not a slugger by any stretch.
  8. 2wins87
    I think Lewis might get some time in CF as they try to work everyone into the lineup, but I hope they keep developing him at short. I do think he ends up in Ft Meyers by midseason at latest. Baddoo is probably a corner OF long-term.
  9. 2wins87
    If Lewis moves off of short he's better in the outfield with his speed. A lot of scouts see him as a CF, though that position may be occupied at the MLB level for a while. I could see switching Lewis and Javier around too.
  10. 2wins87
    The ranking of Garver has actually been the most baffling thing to me this year. He was old for his level last year, and every other year. Now he destroyed AAA - where I would say age to league no longer means much of anything - but the argument is now that he's too old. I used to think he was ranked too high, mostly because of his age and questions about defense. I've been encouraged by reports of his defense solidifying, but now he's kind of an afterthought. I get why national rankers more or less ignore guys that are 26 or 27. But it's not that strange for a catcher to be fairly old before making an impact at the MLB level. About a quarter of the dozenish catchers to put up 2+ WAR last season didn't get a regular job until they were at least 27 (Austin Barnes, Robinson Chirinos, and Manny Piña specifically). There's no reason to think that Garver's not still a prospect and doesn't have time to make an impact.
  11. 2wins87
    Would I rather have Darvish or two inferior pitchers while losing an additional asset off of waivers for no return and delaying the development of several younger, cheaper pitchers likely to be better than Lynn and Cobb in a couple years while they continue to take up roster and payroll space? Why is this a question?
  12. 2wins87
    Rowson appears to be a very good hire based on the overall performance of the offense last year. Adrianza was very good for being picked off waivers. It's early to grade the draft last year but I liked the way they used their big pool to get a number of impact players. And actually their best move was probably driving a hard bargain on Dozier and ultimately retaining him rather than trading him below value just because he looked like their best trade chip. They haven't been perfect, but they seem competent, and I'm still withholding most of my judgement until we see how they build the team for this year and beyond.
  13. 2wins87
    I can't really defend the pick but saying "live fastball" is understating it a bit. He's hit 100 MPH, which, while getting more common, is still rare. I think Burdi may have hit 100 too, though I'm not positive about that, he's close at any rate. I'm guessing that they gambled that no one would take him right after his Tommy John. As for Bard, Kinley's definitely got more velocity but he's been wild as hell. I like the overall package of Bard better, but the front office apparently thinks they can refine his control or something. Like everyone else, I'm not a fan of the move. I would have preferred that they fill another 40-man spot with one of their own rather than picking up a guy who's extremely unlikely to stick around for the season.
  14. 2wins87
    I always think of Chris Young as a comp for Aaron Slegers, both being 6'10" and throwing in the low 90's. (Young has been in the mid to high 80's for most of his career, but did throw in the low 90's his first few years.) I looked up Young's chart from this year and he's much more over the top, coming in from almost straight on but from an even higher point than Slegers and the others. Chart Young is interesting because he had a knack for exceeding his fielding independent metrics year-in and year-out, which mostly seems to be due to his ability to generate tons of pop-ups. He induced tons of flyballs in general but had a low HR/FB ratio since most of those flyballs weren't squared up. Slegers doesn't have the same crazy FB/GB split. His minor league track record does indicate that he can generate an above average pop-up rate though. His higher groundball rate likely comes from the fact that he throws a sinker about as often as his 4-seamer. Anyway, that's my base case for how a guy with back of the rotation stuff can be a bit more than a back of the rotation starter. Young has had a long and reasonably successful career. As a side note, if Slegers doesn't pan out it could be interesting to see if the 6'8" Tyler Wells follows a similar but more successful path. Right now he's just about all whiffs and pop-ups in single A, though his stuff doesn't get rave reviews either.
  15. 2wins87
    I think people might be reading too much into Garver's usage in September. If the Twins weren't in the playoff hunt, he might have gotten more time behind the plate. The front office did essentially clear the way for him by declining Giminez's arbitration. Obviously they still like Castro's defense and pitch calling better, but I'm not sure their tentative usage of Garver this year necessarily means they don't believe in his capability behind the plate. We'll see how things go next year I guess.
  16. 2wins87
    In principle I would prefer them to Darvish since they are younger and would be cheaper. Of course, that's what gives the Pirates and Rays tons of leverage, so in reality it's probably pretty unlikely that the Twins could land them without giving up a lot from their farm system. I'm not sure exactly what it would take to get them, so I'd prefer their contracts to Darvish's, but yeah, most realistic trades might be too much in terms of prospects.
  17. 2wins87
    Archer or Cole--absolutely. We have to be realistic about what kind of pitchers Gonsalves and Romero are. Both Archer and Cole have already reached a higher level than Gonsalves has a ceiling. He has #3 starter stuff, and I'd believe he has the makeup and intelligence to possibly pitch at a #2 level at times, but but Archer is a fringe #1 guy and Cole is a solid #2 with potential to pitch at a #1 level when he's on. As for Romero, he's got #2 stuff with a lot of risk. There's still a good chance he ends up a bullpen arm. I think it's a no brainer if the rest of the asking price isn't too high. I would probably keep Lewis off limits, but anyone else is shippable at the right price. There's just little probability that any of them will have the kind of impact that a front-line starter would. My preference for the starting pitchers that have been talked about would be: Archer, Cole, Odorizzi, Darvish, Cobb, Arrieta, Lynn. Obviously the first three are contingent on what they have to give up to get them, but if they are building for sustained success having a younger cheaper guy is better than signing a big contract for an older free agent. Arrieta and Lynn feel like free agent traps waiting too happen, so I'm not sure I'd really want them at all unless the deals are very team friendly.
  18. 2wins87
    I try not to get too exercised over the ordering on these rankings, but like others, I'm trying to get a feeling for the recent pickups, and I just don't see them being as good as indicated by these rankings. I'm not putting any weight on a short season performance, we see a lot of guys look completely different in their second year vs their debut. But from what I've gathered about Pearson and Banuelos they just don't seem like top 20 prospects in this system even though they were much more highly rated in other shallower systems. My baseline for Pearson is Leach. Pearson was rated slightly above Leach on most pre-draft boards, but he ended up slipping to 85 (right around where Leach was rated). He signed overslot for around 63rd pick value. But Leach was picked at 37th and signed for about 49th value. I don't pretend to have special knowledge about either of these guys, but at the very least this tells me that they are in similar tiers, and that the Twins FO actually likes Leach a significant amount more. And I don't see anything in their debuts to indicate that they've significantly diverged yet. I'm sure you could find scouts that like Pearson better but I'm having trouble believing that you could find one who would say he's clearly a better prospect. I'm legitimately curious if there is any sort of scouting information on Pearson (or Banuelos) that suggests that this take is significantly mistaken. It takes me a while to get to know knew additions and I probably often underrate them. But I feel like we got two guys who rank in the late 20's to mid 30's range in our system, not two top 20 guys.
  19. 2wins87
    Burdi will still be building up strength from his TJ next year, I don't see any real possibility that he'll make the 25 man roster until 2019.
  20. 2wins87
    Yeah, I'm starting to feel like there is getting to be a little fastball saturation. Hitters are seeing more and more high velocity guys, even in the low minors. I sometimes wonder if it actually opens up avenues for guys in different niches to be more successful than they might otherwise be, provided they are really good at their style of pitching of course.
  21. 2wins87
    Rortvedt definitely improved in the second half, but even his second half split would be indicative of a marginal MLB bat. That said he is young and evaluators still seem to like his tools a decent amount. I think there are a few examples of catchers that didn't hit great in the minors, but had good defensive tools and managed to steadily improve their bats over time. I have tempered expectations at this point, but I'm definitely not writing him off. I have him around 30, but it's a deep and intriguing system.
  22. 2wins87
    Whitefield and Rodriguez seem really high to me based on some of the names behind them. I know Whitefield is still more raw than the typical prospect his age but striking out in over 25% of his at bats in A ball while only drawing walks in 6% would be a red flag for any prospect. I don't think the tools justify a ranking this high. I'd have him closer in ranking to someone like Jaylin Davis. On Rodriguez, I buy giving a guy a little bit of a boost for bloodlines in the lower levels, but he's been at least a year old for his level the last 2 years and he's not blowing away the competition. His stuff projects as back of the rotation starter but he doesn't really have the track record to indicate he's very close to reaching that. I'd easily put Slegers ahead of him for proximity and Tyler Wells and Watson ahead for potential. I'd also have Jax lower but that's more on uncertainty about how much time for development he'll get and if that'll make him fall too far behind.
  23. 2wins87
    Agree on Rosario, presumably his defense won't look as bad next year if he just throws to the cutoff more often. He does things that cost money in arbitration (hitting quite a few home runs). Kepler hasn't posted an above average OPS to date. If he improves his on-base average with a bit more power, then yes, he'll cost quite a bit more, but if he has a similar season to the last two he's not really gonna be that much more expensive. I think your contract projection already includes some projected improvement. If he doesn't improve in his third full season expectations will be shifted down somewhat.
  24. 2wins87
    8.9% walk rate isn't great but it's not all that bad either. I think deceptive arm slots can easily be underrated in prospects. It definitely upgrades the raw stuff at any level but it's hard to say how much. I like that Hackimer had success against lefties this year, it's the same thing Hildenberger did in 2015. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Hackimer follow the same trajectory as him. I don't know if two right-handed side-armers would be too many for one bullpen, but I think Hackimer has a good chance of being there in another year or so.
  25. 2wins87
    I'd be interested to hear Jeremy's take, but from what I've read there's not much top end catching talent in this draft, so it's hard to see any of them being a good pick at #15 right now. We'll see what happens, but my guess is the Twins won't take any catchers in the first couple of rounds. Obviously the catching position is the thinnest in the Twins pipeline, but I don't see this draft being a good way to remedy that.
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