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diehardtwinsfan

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Everything posted by diehardtwinsfan

  1. diehardtwinsfan
    My issue with defensive metrics continues to be the problem that they take years to be accurate (or so the creators say)... I'm just very skeptical when you suddenly need a 3 year sample size for a metric to be accurate. These guys will field the ball hundreds (if not more than a thousand) times in a season. If that many data points cannot produce an accurate sample, then I think it's time we rethink how we are calculating them.
  2. diehardtwinsfan
    I hate basketball, but given they field 5 vs what is essentially 14 starters, I'd have to think things are looking better for the Wolves than the Twins.... if those players are really the NBA equivalent to the ones you mentioned... might not be this year, but as those guys come into their own, the Wolves will be a force to recon with.
  3. diehardtwinsfan
    I think once Dozier lands, the Twins can decide what to do with Santana. I'd argue that if BD goes to LA for De Leon and Stewart, then all of a sudden, there's a glut in the rotation and Ervin gets shipped off for a top 100 prospect and one or two more lotto tickets. But until they know what the return is, Ervin has to wait.
  4. diehardtwinsfan
    I personally think you're selling Escobar a bit short. I'd give him another shot at SS and see if his 2016 down year was health related. Not sure if I'd spend big other than picking up RP options that can be flipped at the deadline or cast aside if a guy like Melotakis or Chargois steps up. I really want to see the Twins get some of their younger players in the pen, which means having spots for those two along with Hildenberger, Burdi, or Reed.
  5. diehardtwinsfan
    Well... the problem with entry level statistics in the context of baseball players is a little problem called small sample size and career arc, especially when sample sizes are in years and Dozier's professional career has spanned only 8 years and only 4.5 of said years have been at the professional level. It's one thing to remove an outlier when you have a bazillion data points, but you're literally removing 20-25% of his major league career in calling it normalization. Basic statistics assumes a lot more data points than what you're working with here. That's the flaw in the reasoning. I think it's very reasonable to assume that BD can put in 30+ HR seasons over the next two years. Home runs aren't luck driven, even the saber crowd will acknowledge that. Dozier has shown he can adjust to ML pitching, and short of health issues or suddenly being caught using PEDs, he's a pretty good bet to continue at that pace for a few more years.
  6. diehardtwinsfan
    Oh it was... just a minor heart attack.
  7. diehardtwinsfan
    Slowey's problem wasn't the Twins changing him, it was a line drive to his wrist.
  8. diehardtwinsfan
    I'd strongly suggest carefully wording titles in the future. On the forums section, this is shortened to... Article: Dozier staying with Tw... Let's just say that was a surprise when I saw it yesterday
  9. diehardtwinsfan
    I'm not sure how much leverage the deadline gives them. The Twins want the final offer. If they aren't happy with said offer, they keep Dozier. I'm sure LA can come back and offer them De Leon, Alvarez, Stewart, and Bellinger (they won't, it's an example) and the Twins will without question jump if that's the case. But... they need to do other things this offseason. I get that too. What this really means is that the price will most definitely be higher in a month if they don't pony up what it takes to get him now.
  10. diehardtwinsfan
    I'm not disagreeing, but I do think drjim is right here in that at one point it factors into things, especially if the return for Dozier isn't what we want.
  11. diehardtwinsfan
    I'd note to look at 2015... largely the same team. One played meaningful games into September. One didn't. There's enough talent on the team where being in contention is possible. Yes, it's unlikely. That's why we are talking about trading Dozier. Keep in mind when Johan was traded, these same discussions were going on. Turns out that trading him was the wrong call. We could have used him. Not saying this is that same team, but I am saying that it is possible we end up in the same place, especially if we don't take value for Dozier.
  12. diehardtwinsfan
    yeah, I don't see why the Dodgers would want Gibson. He's a good option for a rebound year, but not a guy a contending team wants to roll the dice with. They might have interest in Santana. If LA was willing to accept De Leon and Stewart as the main pieces for Dozier, picking up Santana and sending two more that way, it may work. Just spitballing.... haven't looked at FV or anything like that. Dozer, Santana, perhaps a bullpen arm as well. De Leon, Alvarez, Stewart, Verdugo, and Ruiz. Perhaps in this scenario we have to take Kazmir's contract... not sure. I've got to think there's a way to make this work.
  13. diehardtwinsfan
    I'd argue this is a flaw of WAR in that it doesn't adjust for the real value that shut down starting pitching brings. I get that they show up once every 5 days, but to have someone that (once every 5 days) will essentially carry a team on his shoulder is impressive. I get that SPs have a bad day from time to time. But I think people fail to understand just how valuable top end SPs are. Even Trout cannot carry a team on his shoulders once every 5 days, and while once and a while he can single handedly win a game, that doesn't happen 40 games a season. I'm not saying a guy like Kershaw will do that 40 games a season, but he will do it far more than a guy like Trout. You can only hope that Trout does it when Kershaw isn't pitching or when Kershaw has a bad game... but a guy like Kershaw is priceless. My point is this: an ace brings far more than 3 extra wins, and I think WAR is flawed for that reason. It undervalues starting pitching. As to your conclusion... I'm 100% with you. Trade Dozier if it makes sense... and making sense implies getting some SP options we don't have now.
  14. diehardtwinsfan
    I highly doubt that the Twins haven't told Friedman to put up or shut up. Using the press is just as much for the fans as it is for the Dodgers. It also makes it really hard for Falvey and company to come back and take JDL straight up for Dozier when they said they would not.
  15. diehardtwinsfan
    So personally, I think this De Leon/Dozier straight up thing is really a poor conclusion drawn from LEN III's article. Neal didn't say that at all, he said they weren't happy with the deal that De Leon anchored. Big difference. The fact that the national media has jumped on this hasn't helped much either. My guess right now is that it is a De Leon/Stewart deal, which I don't mind, but I do agree that we need something else. I'd have to think they have a few guys in the 10-20 range that could make that work... I don't know.
  16. diehardtwinsfan
    I might consider Urias straight up...
  17. diehardtwinsfan
    I'm not sure what Santana has to do to get a better grade. Results wise, he was right around top 30 in baseball. He's getting penalized because everyone else put in 50 shades of awful seasons... I'd probably swap Berrios and Duffey's grades. Duffy had some major league success that indicated he should have done a whole lot better than he did. Yeah, he was a regression candidate, but he went from being very good to completely hitable. Berrios on the other hand was an unknown. We griped when he got sent down, but reality was he wasn't ready, and the front office knew it. Regardless, expectations for him should have been lower... not saying he out performed them, but that I'd be a bit more lenient there given his age/experience.
  18. diehardtwinsfan
    I think it will be for several reasons (taking profits, strong dollar, and an economy not as strong as the pundits say), but I think Jan 2017 is going to be a very similar month to Jan of 2016. If you have cash reserves, I'd consider something short term that goes against the market.
  19. diehardtwinsfan
    I get what you are saying there. Like it or not, it's the reserve currency of the world, and it will always be as long as currencies are denominated in trust. But yeah, if you don't like Gold, by all means go buy something else. There's plenty of ways to preserve wealth.
  20. diehardtwinsfan
    I've been watching it now casually for about 6 months. Wishing I had bought some obviously at the moment, but I have made way too many mistakes buying at the wrong end of a wave like that. Perhaps it adds another 500 in value over the next year, but stocks never go up and up and up and up. The real problem is how volatile it has been over the last few years. It's had some pretty significant ups and downs, and I'm not banking on that suddenly being gone now that a few countries are reportedly using it for diversification. If I had it right now, I'd probably be cashing in my returns as well.
  21. diehardtwinsfan
    It isn't just gold, it's any commodity to be honest. Gold has industrial uses, but it has served as a medium of exchange for humanity since the invention of money. So yeah, that creates an emotional attachment. The real safe haven though is due to inflation. Every single currency on this planet is denominated in trust. And I cannot speak for you, but I don't trust any human institution as far as I can throw it. Governments are no different, and if anything worse. Like it or not, the buying power of your dollar has decreased at a much higher rate than your income has increased. People can see that, and if you want to preserve wealth, you need to find a safe haven. That can be gold, silver, oil, copper, (apparently bitcoin), land, or whatever. You just need to park it somewhere, or hope your investments in the market can outpace an inflation that is always underreported.
  22. diehardtwinsfan
    Yeah, digital gold. I've been watching it for a while now. Haven't picked any up though. With the way countries are trying to fix this economic mess by inflation, it's one of many options to preserve wealth, especially should it backfire on them. One thing to pause that a bit though is that Bitcoin is up big while commodities are all at bottoms. That's one thing that doesn't quite make sense here. Bitcoin might be riding a popularity wave so to speak. I think with China they are just spreading out their assets so to speak. Then again, I could see a sharp move by metals upwards at some point too. They haven't really out performed the dollar. They have however outperformed other currencies.
  23. diehardtwinsfan
    The Chineese try and keep the Yuan at a certain range with the USD. The interesting dymanics on that side of the planet is that the BOJ has decided to radically devalue their currency since the election. It's droped something like 25% during that time. That is one of the reasons the dollar has been strengthening which forces the Chinese to sell US treasuries to defend the Yuan. Add to it, that Trump hasn't exactly been friends there. I suspect a lot of that is talk, but in spite of that China could be in a bit of trouble in the near term. If short term is your thing, the FXP ETF could likely net a nice a gain over the next couple of months. That isn't a buy and hold stock though.
  24. diehardtwinsfan
    Good call Dave.
  25. diehardtwinsfan
    This is probably more impressive given how long the markets traded in an incredibly narrow range. Anyways, if you were thinking of locking in profits, the market appears to be topping. The major drops over the last couple of years have correlated directly to a strong dollar (which is at a peak again right now). Might not hurt to sit on the sidelines for a month or two in any of your investments you don't love.
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