diehardtwinsfan

I really think that one of the next big advancements in the baseball communities will be a proper evaluation of coaches. Regressing to the mean isn't as much luck as it is adjustments, and often times it is a coach that helps with that. I have no idea which of these guys is good and is not good (though Watkins and Allen were both flash in the plan type players with a similar skillsets that managed to outperform their expectations), but I do think that coaching is very underrated by the SABR community as they tend to just chalk it all up to regression to the mean and luck. On the flip side, no doubt that player talent plays into this a lot. I don't think it's quite like football where a washout in one system can be a pro-bowler in another, but I do think that good coaching can help a guy tap into that potential.

I could see Duffey moving to the pen. He already has mid 90s velocity and his K rate has improved as he moved up the chain. Shelving a 3rd pitch and simply operating with two at a higher velocity might make him a decent reliever (not to mention he as a closer in college). Lots of starts have made that transition (Perkins is a good example there). I was more worried that it was an injury. I like potential call up a lot better.

When I did my offseason plans for the Twins last year, it involved getting rid of a lot of the guys from last year's pen and letting some of the rookies (Tonkin, Oliveros, Achter, etc.) take their lumps in the big leagues. Admittedly, at that time I had no clue that the team would be in playoff contention come the beginning of August, but still to this day I think it was a bad decision not to bring a few of these guys up and let them cut their teeth. While I'm not sold on any of them per say, these guys have all pretty much proven themselves at AAA (and some of them have done this for years now) and need to be given an extended shot in the majors. It does take time to develop. I'd have much rather had a guy like Tonkin in that mop up role than say Stauffer, Boyer, or Duensing (though in Boyer's defense, he wasn't that bad at the beginning of the season). My biggest concern for 2016 is that we will be right back there because we didn't invest adequately in our younger talent. Our pen that we can count on will consist of Perkins, Jepsen, Fein (I think), and O'Rourke. Only one is a back of the pen option, and O'Rourke is more of a specialist (though he looks like very good LOOGY long term). I think there are bullets in the system that can compliment Perkins, but they are either too far away (Peterson, Burdi, Reed, Chargois) or will likely need to take some lumps before they can succeed (Tonkin, Oliveros, Achter). While I'm not a fan of paying a lot to get relievers, I do think there's something to be said about the value of having 2 or 3 shut down options in the pen. My fear is that we really won't get to that point until after we've been contending for a few years, and I'd rather not be trading guys like Hu/Tapia to get them.

I really wish that we could get more insight into some of this after the fact, as I find it very fascinating. Part of the problem is getting a package that both sides really like. A team, for instance, could be much higher on a lower ranked prospect than every other MLB team. It happens. I remember with the AJ trade happened that Cubs also had an offer on the table that most of the experts liked better. It turns out that none of those guys ever panned out. I'm sure if Saben had to do it over again, he'd have just hung up the phone.

I guess I don't see the Shield's love. Yeah, he gets those Ks, but his HR rate is up by 50% in Petco park of all places, as are some of his other peripherals. He's not going to be some massive upgrade, and he's not going to remove Hughes, Nolasco, or Santana from the rotation picture. I suppose if he was traded for Nolasco and Milone, I'd be OK with it, but I have no idea why SanDiego would be interested.

This. As someone who works in this industry, I can attest to it. Most of those security ads are fakes, some go as far as to hijack your system and attempt to collect a fee (never pay it) to release them. Your standard AV will typically catch about 75% of the viruses out there. A tool like Malwarebytes will take care of the rest.

Anyone know who is replacing Hu in Fort Meyers?

I didn't say I liked the move... but yeah, Brock might have to beef up that capacity. I could see a riot here and it would be justified.

For what it's worth, it sounds like scouts aren't a fan of Hu as much as we are. http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/7/31/9081439/rays-trade-kevin-jepsen-twins-prospects-chih-wei-hu-alexis-tapia Still not sure I like it, but it does put things in perspective a bit.

I think May gets optioned and goes back to starting. He was already optioned this year, so it's not burning an extra one, and he's really not being used well in the pen. Side note, I wonder if Boyer has some incriminating photos on someone...

yeah probably. I could see him shifting to a relief role for a bit to keep the innings down.

At least Tapia didn't... I hope this is because I'm clearly higher on Hu than the front office.

The sliding into bases thing is going to be a problem wherever he's at, but I have a hard time believing that he cannot work on pitch recognition in AAA, and given how dreadful he was in his first taste (albeit in a very limited sample), I think forcing him to earn the CF job or forcing Hicks to lose it is a better option. I suspect Buxton will be up with the Twins the remainder of the year just to avoid burning through an option, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if he's in Rochester next year if he doesn't show much.

I guess I have to disagree here. I think there's some 20/20 hindsight that tends to ignore some things. He was a top 100 prospect coming off of a very good year and rocketed up into the top 50 in most lists. He has top of the rotation stuff to go with it in an org that was lacking in pitching prospects. There's a saying among minor league prospectors that there's no such thing as a pitching prospect. Acquiring a guy such as Meyer was desperately needed and guys like Meyer aren't typically for sale. Lest we forget, Span had his share of question marks at that time too and didn't exactly get off to a great start in Washington. Given the Twins situation, you do this trade every time.

I started this a couple months back before Hu regressed a bit. I can see that and certainly wouldn't argue it. Gordon really hadn't turned up the heat either. I'm pretty high on Hu though, but I can certainly see your point.

I'd be interested in a Hu for chapman deal or something along those lines. Not sure about trading for Bruce. I don't see that being a fit unless he was a catcher. Given the reliever trades, I could see someone like Chapman or Kimbrel coming this way for a reasonable prospect price.

I could definitely get behind Kimbrel, but for Kepler? Unless the Twins think Kepler is a mirage and are selling high, I'd probably look to send a lesser prospect for Kimbrel.

Justin Upton makes so little sense to me, and trading Hicks or Rosario for him makes even less. If the Twins want to acquire, it should be for long term pieces at positions of need (catcher in particular), not short term options at positions of strength who have a chance of outperforming him down the stretch. Add to it his .767 OPS doesn't scream help.

This sums it up for me. He was always a good prospect, so I cannot argue there. He was promoted too early, which is why he was soooooo dreadfully bad. He's showing why it is he was a first rounder right now, and I think at the least he's earned an extended trial. I could even see Buxton starting in AAA next season, and I'd be fine with that given that he's pretty clearly not ready.

The idea of pull vs oppo I think has more to do with hitting what the pitchers give you. Not very many guys can successfully pull a pitch if they get a steady diet of outside pitches, and major league pitchers are good enough to do it consistently if they keep trying to pull it. The goal is to take what the pitchers give as opposed to leaving a hole in your swing. Plouffe and Dozier do that well, which is why they have both turned into very good hitters. That said, I'm with Brock, this meme really needs to die. It just isn't true. Arcia's problem is not that he's a pull hitter. It's that he pulls everything and makes a ton of weak or misses as a result. He has the talent to be one of MLBs better hitters, his minor league numbers certainly say so, but right now I think his problem is unfortunately more mental. I hope he figures it out, he was one of my picks to break out this year, and I think he still can. The idea of a .300/.360/.520 type hitter behind Sano makes me drool, and that's what Arcia can become. I suppose for the right piece, I'd trade him in a heart beat, but I cannot imagine he has much value right now.

Honestly, I'd probably sell this year. I think the team's true colors were somewhat obvious after the last week or so. They are close, but not worth giving up the far for. I wouldn't sell with the idea of blowing it up, but with the idea of picking up controllable pieces for next year and letting a few more kids play. I'd do the following: Shop Plouffe (though I think this is an offseason move)Trade Pelfrey for whatever I can get, hopefully a decent reliever with a couple years of control left.I would listen to offers on Milone too, as I'm assuming Nolasco will still be here next year unless the Twins plan on taking on a bigger contract and offloading his as a part of the deal. This might be the big mistake, but I want May in the rotation next year. Milone might end up being an offseason trade as well, but his value has rebounded and I'd think he'd get a decent return.Any reliever (other than Perkins, Graham, and O'Rourke) would be available, though I doubt there'd be interest in anyone. Several would be DFAd in favor of some of our Rochester options.I would target an 8th inning setup guy or a catcher. Not against a SS, but we do have internal options, all of which will be competing for that spot. If we got a good one for the right price, I wouldn't turn it down, but between Polanco, Santana, and Escobar, as well as the slim (albeit very slim) chance that Dozier could move there, I'd probably put that 3rd on the list of needs. I'd probably let DH be an internal competition between Walker, Arcia, and Vargas once Plouffe is gone. I'd also dangle Kepler for a time machine to bring the 2009 Joe Mauer to play for Minnesota in 2016, but beyond that he's untouchable. The idea of a resurgent Hicks, Buxton, Rosario, and Kepler tandem in the OF makes me drool.

Side note on Kepler, those FTM numbers don't look all that special, but what I noticed last season is that he really turned it up the second half. He was much better than the first half for what it's worth.

Not a fan of all glove, no hit catchers. Just not. Though to be fair, I probably overlooked him.

Yeah, but I just flipped on gamecast. Given the forum activity of the last few hours... stuck in the airport watching X files >>>> Minnesota Twins baseball. Edit: that and gamecast isn't working well...

Aaron Hicks. .300 hitter.