chpettit19

The premise wasn't that they need a "veteran superstar shortstop to win a title." The premise was "the revolving door part." The premise was that they need some consistency. I mean Christian Guzman was used as the example and it was acknowledged that he wasn't a good player, let alone a superstar. The suggestion of Correa is based on him being the best option to provide stability at the position. The premise was about having a SS start multiple seasons in a row. Not re-signing Correa means that revolving door of a new player at one of the 4 most vital positions on the field will continue for another year.

This can't be real. Arraez and Vlad Jr? What are we doing here baseball world?

The Twins plan for pitching is clearly to develop it in house. Signing Correa doesn't change the plan on pitching at all. They've needed pitching the last 2 offseasons and didn't sign it then so why would we think they'd go out and sign it moving forward? I'd actually argue signing Correa and Rodon this offseason and then an Aaron Nola type next year with the money from Mahle, Gray, Maeda, and Kepler gone would be ideal. 2 studs to front the rotation with Ryan, Ober, Winder, SWR, Varland, et al filling in the other 3 slots. Superstar at SS and superstar in CF for half the season would be the best situation this team has ever been in. Their refusal to sign any long-term deals before now, and Buxton being so cheap, sets them up perfectly to splurge on Correa and 2 stud arms over the next couple seasons.

It's all well and good to trade Polanco or whoever you want to fill in the holes. But the question is how many holes do you think they have? To me it's SS, a #1 SP, lefty reliever, closer/backend shutdown RP, and a partner at C for Jeffers. That's 5 players. My point is that you can sign Correa, Turner, or Swanson and still fill those other 4 spots, including a #1 starting pitcher. They have 60+ million they should be able to spend this offseason. Plus, if they're doing what you want and trading from a deeper position it's even easier to fill the other spots. Trade Kepler and clear his money and you have even more to spend. Signing Rodon and Correa is affordable and is even smarter if you're trading away someone like Polanco to fill the LHRP, backend RP, or C roles. My point is that signing Correa, or Swanson for less, or Turner for probably about the same isn't stopping the Twins from doing the other things they need to do so why would they not sign a superstar when they can actually afford to? Especially with all the money they have coming off their books in the next couple years.

The Lewis injury really messed things up here. If he'd remained healthy and produced for the rest of the season at the plate this discussion would be over and he'd be the guy moving forward at SS. But that's not what happened, and no matter how good any of us think he'll be (and I think he'll be a star) you can't go into 2023 and beyond banking on him returning as the player he was during the start of 2022. Martin isn't a SS. Nobody thinks he can defend there. The Twins need to quit wasting time on this nonsense and move him to 2B or the OF (I prefer the OF). Although, them continuing to force him into SS action makes me think maybe they're planning on jumping him to the majors early next year as part of the "just survive until Lewis is ready" plan. I hope that's not their thought. Lee is a bit of a wild card. From all reports his glove work is A+, but he doesn't have the range to play SS. If this is the case he's far more suited to 3B now that the shift is going away and the middle infield is getting back to needing much more range. I haven't seen him play SS enough to really have an opinion on his range, but the Twins need to be honest with themselves on what they have in Lee. Is he really a SS and how quickly will he be major league ready? There's nobody else in the entire organization that looks remotely capable of handling SS for the Minnesota Twins to start 2023 or at any point in the near future. Polanco isn't shifting back over, and Gordon isn't any more than a single game fill in option there. They need a SS. They have money to spend. Go get a star and worry about where Lewis, Martin, and Lee play when they're all ready. Too many SS is a good problem to have. The Twins aren't likely to actually run into that situation unless they sign one of the big 3 FA SS (I don't count Bogaerts as a SS as he's been terrible there defensively his whole career and is 30 years old now, he's a 3B) and Lewis returns as a star. But having 2 major league SS is a good problem to have. Especially when one is as athletic as Lewis and can play anywhere but catcher. Go get a star with your 60 million in payroll space and quit messing around!

That's a reason to start him in AAA for sure, but not a reason to have him down there all year which is how some of the previous comments read. One suggests him not getting serious consideration until spring training 2024 after all of 2023 at AAA. I don't consider Julien a great OF candidate. He's not fast. I know, I know he steals bases, but that doesn't make him fast. I don't think I've seen even a single scouting report have him at even a 50 grade (average) for speed. They're all 40/45 grades. He's a good base runner (Twins need more of those!), but he's not fast. He's another IFer who probably can't field super well there (all the more reason to put Martin in the OF!). He's an Arraez type player defensively, with less arm strength. But that bat has a chance to be real, and you can never have too many bats!

No. It wasn't. His leg injury happened his freshman year of college which was 2020. He played northwoods the summer following his injury, followed that up with his sophomore year college season, a season in the Cape Cod league, and then his junior college season before being drafted by the Twins. He was one of the "big 7" that everyone thought were pretty locked into the top 7 spots in some order, but the Rangers surprised everyone and went Kumar Rocker 3rd overall which pushed Lee to the 8th spot. He absolutely, 100% did not fall because of his knee injury.

Really, really nice post here. Appreciate the numbers provided. It's the difference between having a baseball team for a business and having a baseball team to be competitive. I hate the Yankees, but part of that is jealousy over having an owner for so long who was legitimately just doing whatever he could to win. There are pretty clearly 2 camps of owners in MLB. 1 camp includes the Pohlads and are owners who run their teams like any other business. Willing to take some financial hits here and there, but never major ones and never for multiple seasons at a time. The other camp includes Seidler and are owners who run their teams to win. They're competitive billionaires trying to show other billionaires they're better at being billionaires. Cohen and the Mets look like they're joining that camp after having been in the "baseball as a business" camp for far to long for their fan's liking. The interesting thing to me is profit sharing amongst the owners. It'd be so fascinating to be a fly on the wall in owners meetings and see what the different battle lines are and how the Seidler, Cohen, etc. owners really feel about the other owners just taking their profit sharing money and pocketing it. I'm sure they're somewhat ok with it because it makes it easier for them to win. The best sports leagues in the world are those with uber competitive owners doing whatever it takes to win without any restrictions on spending. It's just really hard to get owners in MLB who will let their FO go wild with the checkbook so we're stuck with a handful going wild as the others sit back and enjoy watching their net worth continue to grow and grow.

I have literally no interest in Elvis Andrus. The absolute best case scenario is that he has another "good year" for him which equals a league average hitter. When average is the absolute best case scenario for a player I don't want them. If I'm running the team I don't even have him on my list of options and if his agents calls me I tell him "thanks, but no thanks." The Twins have to be trying to win in 2023. A team trying to win doesn't bring in Andrus to be their SS for any amount of time. It's that simple to me. I'd rather jump Lee straight to the majors than sign Andrus. A team banking on Andrus for 2 months and then Lewis taking his job as soon as he's healthy isn't trying to win. I'm all for Lewis getting a shot as soon as he's healthy, and I think he'll still be a stud, but I'm not keeping SS open for him in a year I'm trying to compete. He can take over 3B, or LF, or CF, or wherever they need him when he's healthy. Get a real short stop and quit f'in around with these way, way, way over the hill vets and hoping for healthy seasons with huge production from rookies. You have the money. Sign a star.

Quite a bit of goalpost moving all in 1 comment there. If Morneau is someone you think fits the bill as "legit full-time major league talent that was good on both sides of the ball" (and that's how I read you listing him there) then you can't turn around and say Polanco isn't because he's not a SS (he's the answer to the initial question because he's a solid defender at 2B, by the way). If your question is when the Twins last developed a 2 way star that plays up the middle it's Mauer, and Morneau doesn't even qualify as a guy who played the lowest position on the defensive ladder. You can't poopoo Lewis and Martin because they aren't good enough to be SS (although Lewis looked more than capable this year). If Martin reaches his potential (not saying he will, just if he does) he absolutely can fill the "both sides of the ball" criteria even if he's playing LF or CF. And Lewis can fit the bill at any position on the field. Brooks Lee didn't fall to them due to injury. Where is that coming from? That's not based in reality in any way, shape, or form. And he's very much a possible gold glove 3B for the next 10 years so he'd fit the criteria of 2 way talent.

This is not an overly exciting list of shortstops. I very much like the top of this list as baseball players, but not SSs. Lee seems to have "gold glove 3B" written all over him. They seem determined to force Martin to be an IFer even if all reports are that he's destined for the OF (which is weird since the Twins have a gigantic need for a RH hitting OFer right now) cuz he just can't field well enough on the dirt. And while I'm a huge Lewis supporter, and he certainly looked like he could handle the position defensively in his brief stint, it's hard to really bank on him without question after a 2nd straight major knee surgery. If he turns out to be SS worthy it's always nice to have more SSs than you need. This list makes me want Correa, Turner, or Swanson even more than I already did.

2021 version of Lopez would be quite intriguing to bring to MN. Mondesi is a less talented Buxton, we have no need at all for another guy at a premium position who can't stay on the field. Hardest of passes on him. But I agree that Lopez would be interesting to make a call on.

More trades this offseason would put the FO, and team, in a pretty tight "need to win with this group" spot. I wouldn't advocate for any trades unless you're replacing those prospects by trading some of your major leaguers but that's a risky game of how much you're truly improving the major league team. Major leaguers are always better to have than prospects, but a team with the budgetary constraints (even if they're self inflicted) of the Twins need constant prospect graduations to stay competitive. Trading away anymore prospects puts this team in a "must hit" spot with all of their top guys for the next few years. So I wouldn't be trading for anyone. Especially not any of these 3. Just sign Jose Iglesias, or one of the other middling FA SS, if you're going this kind of route.

If you don't believe that 9 or 10 of Gray, Ryan, Mahle, Ober, Maeda, Duran, Jax, Lopez, Alcala, Moran, Thielbar, Varland, Winder, and SWR can get outs in the playoffs you should be suggesting the Twins blow it up and start over. If you don't think 9 or 10 of Jeffers, Arraez, Lewis, Miranda, Polanco, Urshela, Buxton, Celestino, Gordon, Kepler, Kirillloff, Larnach, Wallner, Martin, and Lee are good enough for regular playoff playing time you should be suggesting the Twins blow it up. That's 29 players. How many do you think are good enough to make a postseason roster? I believe Gray, Ryan, Mahle, Maeda, Duran, Jax, Lopez, Alcala, and Moran would be worthy of postseason roster spots with Gray, Ryan, Mahle, Maeda, Duran, Jax, and Lopez being amongst the 10 guys I'd want on my postseason staff getting almost all of the innings. To me that means they need 3 more big time arms for a postseason run. 1 being a starter in front of Gray, Ryan, and Mahle (I've already said multiple times Rodon would be my choice, even though he has some injury concern). The other 2 would be pen arms that slot in above Jax, Lopez, and Maeda (he'd be a pen arm for me in October), but below Duran. At least 1 of them would have to be a lefty. I haven't looked at the FA reliever lists so don't know who I'd look at there. Do you feel like the Twins have more or less than 7 postseason level pitchers on the current roster? I believe Jeffers, Arraez, Lewis, Miranda, Polanco, Urshela, Buxton, Gordon, Kepler, Kirilloff, and Larnach are postseason roster worthy. I think Jeffers, Arraez, Lewis, Miranda, Polanco, Buxton, and Kirilloff are good enough to start in playoff games. That's 7 position players. To me there's an OF spot (maybe Larnach could claim it, but I'm not 100% sold on him yet) and SS open (I'd put Lewis at 3B where I think he'd be a gold glover). Do you feel the Twins have more or less than 7 postseason level position players on the current roster? That's really the point here. How many holes do you see the Twins as having to fill? Because I feel they have so few, and that there's a handful of internal options who may actually step up and claim them, I think they can afford to finally bring in a superstar on a big deal. I think their current major and minor league rosters moving forward can account for almost all of the needs. If you disagree then it's time to blow it up cuz they can't build an entire roster through free agency and trades. If you agree with my general assessment of the current Twins organization then why wouldn't you want them to bring in both Correa and Rodon, plus a couple relievers? They can afford it. It's not a budget issue. What reason do they have to not bring in both if they don't have a ton of holes to fill?

The position players are drafted at shouldn't be looked at all that hard. Beyond IF/OF/P there really isn't much to that. There are dozens of "SS" drafted every year that every team knows has no shot at staying at SS. And Miller hit .212 in low A this year. He's not stopping them from signing a long-term deal with a SS. The Donaldson deal is an interesting one. Everyone knows the last few years of these "mega deals" are more than likely going to be bad. The hope is that you get so much out of the first handful of years to make it worth it. The problem with Donaldson's deal is that he was paid pretty much what he was likely going to be worth the first couple years before the last couple years had him making well more than he'd be worth. There was no period in that contract that had him earning well above his pay to make the deal worth it. Signing Correa to a 7-10 year deal would be with the expectation that he's worth well more than he's paid over the first 6 or 7 years and you are able to produce a cheap, young player to replace him when he has to move to 3B and isn't worth the contract after that. Long-term deals aren't about getting your money's worth every year, it's about getting your money's worth over the life of the deal. And Urshela was the best player in that Donaldson deal so I don't know that I'd say the Twins had to give up players for the Yankees to take him. Rortvedt isn't a prospect, despite fans around here really wanting him to be. He's a left handed Drew Butera. IKF is a good fielding, no hit (84 OPS+ this year, 82 for his career) player that had a rookie replace him in the playoffs so he didn't even start game 5 today. The Twins didn't give up anything of value and got the best player in that deal.

The Angels are worse at building a pitching staff than the Twins. That's all anyone needs to know about why they can't win. Yes, Pena was good. Not claiming he wasn't. But their willingness to take a chance on the rookie being good was because they had a great team around him. Much of his WAR came from his defense, though. In my experience, you don't even find a majority of people who work in analytics who believe the defensive stats should be taken as gospel. Pena was almost exactly a league average hitter. His OPS+ was 101. Correa's was 140. Slight difference there, no? "Salary push for the end of the season" is a nonsense, not even remotely based in reality argument. You think he waited until September and then was like "dang, I guess it's time to start trying now so I can get my $350 mil?" That's complete and utter nonsense. No player does that. I've never, not even once, suggested the Twins can't afford to lose him. But the facts of the situation is that you need stars to win. The Twins are not developing their own. But they have developed a bunch of guys who look to be solid major league regulars. Since they've built nearly an entire 26 man roster of major league regulars who are on well below market deals they can afford to sign Correa. And a pitcher. Why would any fan of the team not want them to spend money to improve the team? What do they gain by not signing Correa? He wasn't "average" for the majority of the season. In fact his OPS+ was above 130 for almost all of it. That's well above average. He did struggle in the clutch moments like the rest of the roster, I will grant that. But this isn't about "have to," it's about how else do you improve this team so they can actually win a playoff game? Signing a star who you can more than afford seems like a pretty reasonable way to improve the team. The point of having a steady stream of major league regulars developed by your own system on cheap deals is so that you can afford to sign the stars. They have a star. They have a bunch of regulars on cheap deals. If this isn't the time you want to sign a star there literally never will be a time. There aren't enough holes on the roster to need to go out and sign a bunch of mid-level guys. Sign a stud starting pitcher and a stud SS and let's play ball. They can afford it and have the players on the rest of the roster to be able to win some games. If you disagree you should be suggesting they trade everyone on the roster and start a full on rebuild. Trade Buxton, Mahle, Gray, Ryan, Miranda, Duran, all of them.

Paddack faced 3 bad offenses and dominated them exactly like you'd want him to do. Just pointing to his 4.03 ERA is disingenuous. He made 4 healthy starts. 1 bad, 3 great. Small sample size makes that 1 stand out a lot. I'm not saying he would've won the Cy Young, but acting like he did nothing successful during his very brief healthy 2022 stint is ignoring the reality of his performances.

His 3 starts before his injury were 5 innings 2 earned, 5.2 innings 1 earned, and 5.1 innings 1 earned. That's a 2.25 ERA. "Wasn't even remotely great" seems to be ignoring 3 or his 4 healthy starts being pretty darn great. The injury was brutal, but I think his on field performance shows the Twins were likely right about his talent. And a look at his full season results would suggest the Twins really didn't give up much in trading Rogers for him. Clearing Rooker's 40 man spot was actually quite useful in that deal as well.

Pena isn't the reason they don't miss Correa. Bregman, Altuve, Tucker, and Alvarez are the reason they don't miss him. Oh wait, that's just the reason they don't miss him on the position player side. Their entire pitching staff can be added to that list. Pointing to a team with far more talent and saying "see, you don't need Correa to be good" isn't a good comparison to the current Twins situation. The Astros have developed their own hitting and pitching stars so they didn't need to sign Correa to the deal he wants. The Twins have failed to develop any stars outside of Buxton for half a season at a time, and maybe Duran as a bullpen star. With the young talent the Twins have arriving now they should sign Correa AND a really good pitcher. Correa and Rodon as the only 2 offseason signings for about 60 million a year total would be just fine with me. But we need to stop pointing to teams like the Astros who succeed after letting a star go because they have other stars to cover for them and saying that shows you don't need to sign stars. The Nats let Harper go, do they miss him? The Red Sox thought they wouldn't miss Mookie, how's that turned out? The Twins seem to have a nice core of solid MLB players arriving now. Very few, if any, of them look like stars. So, unfortunately, actually having to spend market rates for a star is the only option they have right now. And if Lewis does become a star, great, now they'd be at 2.5 with Correa and Buxton as well as Lewis so they're still not at the level of star power Houston is running out there currently.

Flags fly forever! And I think the Dodgers have made it pretty clear that winning in October is far more about your team catching fire in October than it is building the best roster in baseball. I was calling for Lewis to be on the opening day roster before this season started so I'm certainly not against the idea. I'm probably the biggest Lewis supporter on these boards. But I'm also all for bringing in as many stars as possible so I'd prefer Correa at SS and Lewis at 3B to start and then 2B when Lee is ready (They're both going to be stars, let me have my dreams!). I think they need to be planning on opening a new window with their new core. I agree with your previous post that they should've spent in '18-'20 as well (to be fair they signed Donaldson before '20), but Kirilloff, Lewis, Lee, Ryan, Duran, Miranda, Arraez, Jeffers, Winder, Ober, etc. are all getting into their mid to late-mid 20s and most of them are under control into their age 30+ seasons. You need them to be the true core that's supported by the base of Correa and Buxton. I think the timeline matches up perfectly to pay Correa for the rest of his peak at the same time you have the entire new core under team control for pre-arb or arb deals. Then cross your fingers some of the new core become stars.

If he helps break the 18 game streak and maybe even helps get the Twins to an ALCS before his contract becomes an "albatross" I think the FO would be over the moon happy, and would be able to ignore any fan outrage for the last couple years of the deal. That's the balance. Certain segments of every fan base demand that every contract be a win every season or the FO has failed. That's not new to the FO. Those contracts being a success vs failure shouldn't be looked at as a year by year proposition, in my opinion. It's whether or not the life of the contract proved to be a success or failure. I wouldn't be thrilled going over 7 years for Correa because those last 3 years he's likely a league average 3B. If you can get him for higher AAV at 7 years that'd be the move I'd prefer, but at some point if you want to attract a premiere talent on the open market you're going to have to pay for decline years. The other option is to cross your fingers that you can develop that kind of talent. To me this FO looks really solid at developing really solid players, but there's not many stars I see coming out of the system. Maybe Lewis is one and then you have 2.5 stars in Correa, Lewis, and Buxton (Buxton obviously the .5). Otherwise you have .5 for sure and have to hope Lewis becomes one and a team with solid players and basically no star power catches lightning in a bottle all at once for the same October run.

Well said. There's posts on TD almost daily about how we have too many corner OF/IF/DH types with no defensive value. Which I agree with. The answer to that problem is having more guys who are borderline SS (I don't count Martin there, he's a terrible SS by all accounts) quality defenders who move to corners and become elite. The Twins need more athleticism, not less. Having a platinum glove SS while having to push other SS quality players to lesser defensive positions would be a dream. Especially cuz those top SS prospects we're talking about are more known for their bats. And infield of Lee-Correa-Lewis-Miranda for the next 6-10 years sounds like a dream!

I think the main problem with your premise is that the Twins should be building around Correa by bringing in more outside options. The core of Twins, and every team's, talent needs to be developed through the system and paid on pre-arb and arb deals that are well below market. If the Twins don't develop cheap talent it doesn't matter who they try to bring in from the outside because no team can win by simply buying free agents. It's not how the Dodgers or Yankees win either. It's just not possible. So since they're currently in the middle of graduating a lot of prospects now is the time to splurge on an individual huge contract like Correa's since the rest of the team will be on well below market deals.

I am definitely on the "Martin in the OF" bandwagon. I don't mind seeing if he can play infield, but I'm yet to see any reports of him being any good at it. I'd also be signing Correa, but I'm not holding my breath there...

I like it. I wouldn't "waste" money on Andrus, though, if Martin is going to be on the opening day roster. I just let Martin play SS (even though I hate that they're still trying to force that to be a thing) and use that 6M to get another bullpen arm. Not going to be a shutdown closer, but I'd trust a 6M arm over Henriquez to start the year.