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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    A minor quibble but the value of what we gave up for in Santana should only be one season - after that he was a free agent and those years weren't traded.
  2. gunnarthor
    Tough question. I think Dozier's swing is good enough for him to pull another 15 or more home runs. Arcia's power will be dampened a bit by TF but he'll have a full season. He should get to 20. Sano won't be up early enough. Willingham will rebound and have a strong season - over 25 homers. But he might be traded at the deadline. I went with Willingham.
  3. gunnarthor
    Well sure, that'd be great but Miami would never, ever do that.
  4. gunnarthor
    Diamond did that the year before. I don't think Deduno is good enough to make 20+ starts. I hope I'm wrong.
  5. gunnarthor
    I figure 3 guys will get at least 30 games but Pinto will eventually get the most. But Shane's gonna be real unhappy when Fryer gets a lot of the starts in April and May.
  6. gunnarthor
    Well, first, you're way overreacting to the order of the list. I just listed the 5 pitchers that I think will open the season with. Secondly, Gibson has upside. He was a top 100 prospect and put up really good AAA numbers. He'll eventually be a good pitcher for us but it'll take time. Most pitchers get knocked around a bit when they come up and get sent back down. No biggie. As for Deduno, I guess he deserves his spot but i don't think he's a good ML pitcher and I think he'll lose his rotation spot fairly early next year.
  7. gunnarthor
    MLBtraderumors is reporting that Logan Morrison is going to be shopped at the winter meetings. He won't be a free agent until 2017 but has really underwhelmed these last few years after a pretty solid rookie season. Once upon a time he was a top 20 prospect and a darling of some people for his ability to work the count. But he's posted a 92 OPS+ the last two years while only playing in 178 games. He's probably best as a DH but can play a corner OF spot. I can't imagine he'd cost a lot to get and he's still young enough (26 next year) to turn it around in a better environment. But I'm not sure that's us. He had that twitter war with management a few years ago which might not endear him to our FO and he's a LH power bat (ideally) so might not be suited for TF. Still, he's going into arbitration and the Marlins would probably be willing to trade him to save money. I don't think he'd cost a top prospect but maybe one or two in the 7-12 range. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/12/marlins-nearing-deal-with-garrett-jones.html
  8. gunnarthor
    Sure, of course and good point. Twins have shown an ability to make those type of trades (Butera for Suliman being another example). Benson and Hendriks could probably have been in those type of trades. I guess I was thinking that Mike was suggesting that the Twins should have traded Hendriks/Benson for a better than that type deal than that. Trading a AAA guy for a half season of a vet isn't what I was thinking he was talking about.
  9. gunnarthor
    But you also might be over valuing other teams interest. I think the Twins are one of the few teams that aren't turned off by low strike out rates. In 2011, Hendriks krate fell off when he went to AAA and wasn't good in his cup of coffee with us. Other teams clearly would have scouted that and most probably thought he was, at best, a #5 pitcher or bullpen arm. No need to trade for that type of player. Even coupled with Benson, who never showed good plate discipline, I'm not sure a lot of teams would have wanted to trade value and give up two roster spots to those type of guys. Generally, when teams trade for prospects they want established prospects or lottery tickets or young guys not burning up option years. Rarely do you see a team trade for AAA level players with low floors and ceilings.
  10. gunnarthor
    Nice article, Seth.
  11. gunnarthor
    I'd like them to explore trades of Dozier and Perkins to see if they can add some more prospect talent but I think the rotation is pretty settled for now. As I understand it, Worley is out of options so he has to make the club and the Twins aren't going to give up on him yet. So, barring injury, our starting rotation is probably: Nolasco Correia Hughes Worley Deduno with Gibson starting in AAA to get his confidence back or some such. I'd rather have Gibson up than Deduno but he has options and Deduno probably deserves a shot. After those six, guys like Johnson, Diamond, Albers, maybe Duensing and Swarzak will be able to take some starts until May and Meyer are ready - I think May gets called up fairly quickly myself.
  12. gunnarthor
    There's a lot of room between Meyer and Hendriks. Hendriks was a nice story but he wasn't that good. My guess is that if the Twins signed a 25 yr old pitcher who managed a 5.7 k/9 rate (while not walking anyone) in AAA the fan base would not be happy.
  13. gunnarthor
    Not a big surprise but I was hoping he'd make it. Hope he gets another chance.
  14. gunnarthor
    As a labor over management guy, I generally agree with you (esp with the idea of putting the players in some sort of draft). But this seemed to be an area where the Twins could have made relatively cheap upgrades by simply out scouting the competition. Now, that ability has been lessened. (And I know the Twins haven't done a great job scouting in NPB yet).
  15. gunnarthor
    MLB and Japanese baseball came to an agreement on the posting system and basically every team that's willing to pony up 20m can try and sign Tanaka, essentially making it a bidding war and guaranteeing that the largest revenue clubs will get the best Japanese talent. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/12/mlb-npb-reach-agreement-on-posting-system.html
  16. gunnarthor
    Interesting draft class. We should do BPA but I hope Kolek falls to us. A guy to sorta watch could be Sean Newcomb. The lefty plays in an inferior league so he'll be a complete scout pick but he has good size. He could climb up the draft boards.
  17. gunnarthor
    It's almost certain that fans get too attached to minor league stat lines (see Slama, Anthony) and over rate milb bullpen arms. Twins probably think these guys are upgrades and/or added depth.
  18. gunnarthor
    A few years ago the Twins signed off the scrap heap a 31 year old relief pitcher who avg 7.8 k/9 and 3.9BB/9 in his healthy seasons (which had been over two years ago) and that turned out pretty good. They also did a good job finding Fien - more or less a career minor leaguer when we signed him. I'm really not sure what the fuss is over signing a guy and giving him a look. It looks like something clicked for Velasquez last year when he was moved to the bullpen - he had been a starter before.
  19. gunnarthor
    I doubt the Twins will pay what it takes for Garza and I'm not sure they are ready to give up on Worley and/or Gibson as a longterm starter.
  20. gunnarthor
    I don't think they can trade Rosario while he's on a PED suspension. Am I wrong on that? I guess it depends on how you feel for those two guys but I think it's a slight overpay. I'm not a big Rosario fan but he's probably a top 80-100 range prospect and Anderson has been hurt for years now and owed a lot of money. I'd stay away from him and wouldn't want to give up a real rebuilding piece for him.
  21. gunnarthor
    Hendriks, Herrmann, Colabello and Parmelee are all pretty simple cuts. Nothing to worry about.
  22. gunnarthor
    Something similar to but a bit better than his 2012 season - ERA+ 105 or so, 190+ innings or so, roughly 2+ WAR. I think he'll do well here.
  23. gunnarthor
    If, by breakout, you mean a guy who could jump into the top 100 nationally a year from now, I'd say Thorpe and Kepler. If we're thinking more guys that we'll be a lot more excited about (like Thorpe now or Kepler a year ago), I'd go with Eades (massively underrated by Twins fans) and Minier.
  24. gunnarthor
    Keeping in mind that I don't know anything, I'd go for Hughes on a 4 yr deal. I think he's a good pitcher in TF and he's young enough that he'd still be good when the next wave needs him to be. Now, I could be wrong so I'm not going to be upset if he signs a one year make good deal in an NL park but he was probably my favorite offseason target.
  25. gunnarthor
    Would Navarro be a "major" signing?
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