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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    You realize a lot of teams outbid the Twins to sign worse players, right? Jackson, Saunders, Blanton, Haren, Marcum, Lannon, Baker, Dempster, McCarthy etc. That's the problem with trying to rebuild through free agency.
  2. gunnarthor
    Why on earth did you quote "unrealistic"? In your mind, would signing Sanchez and/or Grienke have made sense for the 2012 Twins?
  3. gunnarthor
    What's amazing to me about this thread is that the Twins are considering signing a pitcher who has avg 202ip, 105 ERA+ and 3 WAR per season for the last couple years (while playing in a hitter's park) and people are complaining.
  4. gunnarthor
    You really thought the Twins were going to outbid the Dodgers for Grienke or add another year (and money) to Sanchez's contract to get him away from Detroit? Or that would even have made sense?
  5. gunnarthor
    I'd be pretty happy with any of these guys and hope the Twins add two of them. I'd add Phil Hughes to this list and mention that I'm a lot more wary of Kazmir than most people seem to be. Yes, he has a nice krate but his bWAR, IP, ERA+ were all lower than Correia's last year. I'm not sure I trust FIP and fangraphs WAR over b-r right now. It'd be interesting to see if the Twins would add two bigger names - say Garza and Jimenez to grow with Gibson, Meyer, May and Worley.
  6. gunnarthor
    You have a face made for radio. :-) But good work.
  7. gunnarthor
    Arroyo isn't exciting but it's not a bad idea. He's durable and I think he'd pitch better at TF than in the bandbox in Cincy. We need innings and Gibson and Meyer might be able to pitch a combined 200 this year. I don't want to give him much more than we gave Correa but they have payroll to burn so as long as it isn't more than 2 years, the signing shouldn't hurt us. And while his krate is pretty low, he doesn't walk much so he certainly fits the Twins mold. (I'd still like to see them add Hughes but I admit I don't know everything about these guys. I think Hughes is a guy who can really thrive in TF but I could be wrong and maybe he's a bullpen guy long term).
  8. gunnarthor
    Well, hopefully this lets Mauer play in a 150+ games next year. And it at least gives the team some certainty going forward. I'm not sold on Pinto but I don't think they have a lot of other options. A Pinto/Doumit combo will have some pop, if nothing else.
  9. gunnarthor
    Actually, both of those ideas are pretty good. I'd love to get one of the Pohlads on record on that. If the Twins are underpaying now (by a lot) and will do so for a number of years, it seems fair that they overspend to keep the nucleus together down the road. Or write a 20m check to some charity to fight cancer.
  10. gunnarthor
    Because it's always fun to point out how rich the Pohlads are and how much of it isn't going to the payroll. (Even if I actually agree with Ryan's plan). MLB Team Valuations - Bloomberg According to Bloomberg, Twins total value is worth 700m and team value is 595m. Revenue for last year was about 215m so next years payroll could be 111m or so (on a 52% revenue to budget).
  11. gunnarthor
    Another little nugget on him. He is currently the active leader in batting avg after Pujols bad year. Top three active by avg: Mauer .323 Pujols .321 Cabrera .3208 And with some upcoming retirements, he's 3rd in OBP behind Votto and Pujols.
  12. gunnarthor
    I like the Billingsly idea but, unless they want to cut payroll, they'd be selling low on him. Doesn't make much sense for them. (Or, we could overpay).
  13. gunnarthor
    Found this interesting, it's from baseball propectus chat: Jeff L (Houston): Do you think any 2014 HS pitcher is better than Kohl Stewart? Tyler Kolek? Grant Holmes? Nick J. Faleris: This would be an interesting article. Stewart's value comes in his combination of now stuff, broad arsenal, and athleticism. There are arms that grade out better on individual pitches, or consistency, but Stewart's well-rounded profile is tough to match. I'd have to really think about it. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/images/dot_gray.gif LeBron James (Miami): Thanks for the chat, Nick. In your opinion, do you think Tyler Kolek, Grant Holmes and Touki Toussaint have better raw stuff than Kohl Stewart? Nick J. Faleris: Kolek has a louder fastball, but the secondary stuff and athleticism is way behind. Holmes is probably the closest based on his fastball/breaking ball combo, ability to hold velo late, and aggressive approach. It wouldn't shock me if Holmes passed Stewart's draft-time profile by next June, but there's work to do. Touki has the best raw stuff of the group with his FB/CB, but both are inconsistent. He has mixed-in a SL/CT offering this summer/fall with a lot of potential, as well, but he needs to find more consistency in his mechanics in order for the big stuff to play. Right now he just isn't consistent enough. More stuff in the chat about Sano, Kepler and Buxton, too. Baseball Prospectus | Events | Chat with Nick J. Faleris
  14. gunnarthor
    One of the undervalued things in prospecting is "old" prospects. Some times it takes time. Guys like Koskie and Youkilis took a long time to make the majors. Youk wasn't a full time player until 27 and neither was ever a top 100 prospect.
  15. gunnarthor
    Good to see. A lot went right for the Twins minor leagues this year but he was one of the few bad seasons. Hopefully, he has a nice bounceback next year.
  16. gunnarthor
    Nice list Seth
  17. gunnarthor
    I know nothing about his injury but yeah, he'd certainly be a guy to take a flier on.
  18. gunnarthor
    Honestly not sure. I've never heard of it before although I think Radke and Blackburn had pretty short strides (but Johan didn't and I think Gibson has a pretty big stride now). Maybe throw that one to the "ask Jack" thread?
  19. gunnarthor
    Of course this means nothing but Tim Dierkes at mlbtraderumors wrote out his guesses as to where the top 50 free agents sign. He has the Twins signing Kazmir (high upside but high risk, IMO) and James Loney to play first base. (I think I'd prefer a RH power bat like Hart over Loney but Loney does play good defense, which is important). 2014 Top 50 Free Agents With Predictions: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com He also guesses that the Dodgers sign Tanaka, Morneau goes to the Rays and Joe Nathan to the Tigers (which makes so much sense I hate it).
  20. gunnarthor
    Yeah, the Twins were supposed to favor Meadows more than Frazier but I'm not sure how on either of them they were. They seemed pretty much on Stewart and some rumors about the catcher Pitt took.
  21. gunnarthor
    Nolasco actually fits what I predicted earlier. They'll sign him to eat innings and have a rotation of Correia, Nolasco, Gibson, Pelfrey and Deduno with Albers, Diamond, May, Meyer, Hendriks, De Vries the back ups. Not a great rotation.
  22. gunnarthor
    Well, first, the major league min is about $500k, not $300k so that affects your numbers a bit. And your arb numbers are off quite a bit, too.
  23. gunnarthor
    I probably didn't make it clear. The Twins gave 14m in raises to a bunch of guys, either through contracts or arbitration. Contracts have to be paid, even if they cut the guy so they couldn't cut, say Reed, and have that money for Ortiz. On the arb guys, you're right, they could have cut one guy to keep Ortiz (although they'd have to get someone else to replace, say, Koskie).
  24. gunnarthor
    Except everything you say isn't really true. His amazing second half is fully dependent on July. His Aug/Sept OPS was below .800, just like his pre-July OPS was below .700. He was streaky. He never had much success as a Twin, they were replacing him with a guy who was a better ranked prospect and had been destroying AAA. Ortiz had pop. And, as I just posted, the Twins gave raises to 10 guys and signed Rogers. They increased payroll by 15m. So it isn't clear that they could "easily have found 1.5 mil" for Ortiz.
  25. gunnarthor
    I disagree. The 02 Twins were a 40m payroll team, the 03 Twins were 55.5m. They had to give raises to 10 players (Reed, Milton, Hunter, Mays, Koskie, Hawkins, Jones, Everyday Eddie, Dougie baseball and Guzman) that totaled more than 14.5m. They also signed Kenny Rogers for 2m for the rotation. At the time, Ortiz simply wasn't worth it. No one questioned his power but he couldn't stay healthy. To pay Ortiz, say 1.5m, you'd have to lose one or two of those players. Again, in retrospect, losing Ortiz wasn't good (I suppose it also matters if you think his success was PED related or not) but the move made sense at the time.
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