gunnarthor

BA reported that a surprise player, Omar Luis, who signed a 2.5m bonus with the Yankees last year, is available in the rule v draft. Luis, a LHP from Cuba, is eligible b/c of a weird set of circumstances - his first contract (for 4m) was voided b/c of an injury and he resigned for 2.5m. But b/c it was his second contract w/his original team, and not protected on the 40 man roster, he's eligible for the rule v draft. http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/surprise-player-available-in-rule-5-draft/ Probably won't be drafted since he was in rookie ball last year and he's a only 6' tall. And walked nearly a batter an inning. Has a good fastball and two more pitches that could be avg, which makes him a #3 type pitcher (like Berrios) if it all comes together.

I think the agent wants to affect how teams value his player before they bid (like in the Sano example). If a team values a guy at 2/10 before the agent can set up some "facts" - player A is the only pitcher who has thrown 200 ip in 10 seasons, player A is younger and amassed more WAR than Grienke did over the previous 3 seasons, player A is generating a lot of interest in X number of markets - I think it makes it harder for the agent to get that team to move to a 4 year deal or 15/year. That's why not wanting offers isn't the same as not generating interest in his client, as Levatian suggests.

MLB and Japanese baseball are working out the kinks in the posting system. Might not get fixed.

How can you complain, they tied!

Generating interest isn't the same as taking offers. I think it's reasonable for an agent to try and drum up interesting for his client before he starts taking offers, even if it's a blind bidding process. A team in the early stages might think player A is worth 2/10m but the agent might want to really shop him and build up interest, compare him to better players etc and the agent wouldn't want the original team to have already formed a 2/10m view of his player. I think its probably harder to move a team up if they've already made a valuation of the player.

Yep, and Hicks and Rosario are also (current or former) top 100 prospects that will be in the mix, too.

To your first part, I'm not sure. In the Sano signing stories, as reported in the Pitt papers, it was revealed that the agent told teams not to submit offers until he (the agent) was ready, but Pitt sent him their 2m + deal anyway. The agent was trying to get as many teams interested before the offers came in. Eventually, he told the Twins to make an offer and they did, although under an agreement that the agent wouldn't tell other teams how much the Twins offered, just that they had. Pitt (according to the agent) refused to believe their offer still wasn't the best, thought the agent was making them bid against themselves, so the Twins got him. So I would assume that part of the free agency period involves the agent talking with many teams to gauge levels of interest, teams doing medicals, scouting etc, and then feeling out offers. I very much doubt that a team says "3/30m" right away. I would imagine that Arroyo's agent will eventually ask the Twins to make an offer and might even tell them that their offer is low, and ask if they'd make a higher one.

I wonder if the fan base isn't excited enough about Arcia? I know I was never a big fan of his in the minors but I was wrong. But it seems like a lot of discussion about Arcia focuses on his strike outs or his bad defense and not enough on his bat. He's a 22 year old kid who managed to slug 14 HR while playing at TF (he hit 8 of his HR on the road in only 40 games) and seems to have a pretty smart batting approach. He could really improve these next few years. Honestly, if I was with the Rangers, Red Sox, Yanks or other team trying to get younger and lived in a park where LH power played well, I'd be trying to steal him before he breaks out.

I think we're all souring on Doumit's defense a bit too much, probably b/c of the fangraphs articles on framing. Yes, he's bad but let's keep it in perspective. For his career, B-R has his dWAR at -1.6 and a lot of that looks like bad OF defense. And I know WAR doesn't measure everything that goes into catching but still, his bad defense is getting over rated a bit. And I think Brock is over stating Herrmann's ceiling, I think he should be thrilled if he has a Junior Ortiz or Matt Walbeck type career.

All three of those guys (and probably Hughes) will be wanting multiple year deals. It's very likely that their agents have asked teams not to submit offers yet while they are trying to drum up interest with other orgs. I'm sure their agents will let all teams try and push up their value before they sign somewhere.

Trolling

Anyone else follow the Chess World Championship match between Anand and Carlsen? No? Oh. Well, new chess champ now. http://chennai2013.fide.com/

Well, that's great to see. Again, SSS but he should dominate that level of competition and he is. Strikeouts are still a concern but his power is absolutely legit.

Adding another a catcher makes sense but the team should have higher priorities if they think Pinto can eventually be an everyday catcher. I don't really care if Pinto is sent to AAA for a few months first or given the job out of ST.

Hicks/Buxton/Plouffe - don't think LH power plays well in TF, I'm ok with having good LH OBP hitters. I don't really want to trade Arcia either unless the other team overpays but I'd certainly explore it.

I had thought his contract was over. That probably makes a Dozier trade unlikely.

Arcia to the Rangers for starting pitching - Rangers have pitching to spare and Arcia gives them a young Nelson Cruz who hits 30 HR in that park. Perkins to the Orioles for a package around Eduarado Rodriguez, 20 year old in AA. Back end top 100 type prospect (Sickels had him in his year end top 75 honorable mention, Mayo has him #84. Balt had a horrible bullpen last year - they should be looking to upgrade and any of Perkins, Burton or Fein could be of interest to them. They have some young pitching guys with potential but Rodriguez is the best (after Bundy and Gausman but they ain't getting moved). Wright had a good year in the eastern league - similar to Trevor May. Jonathan Schoop is a supposedly good defender up the middle if we wanted another MI. Kline, Berry etc - they have some arms to move if we wanted them. I think Perkins should get a top prospect type back but a quantity move could make sense, esp since I think Ryan is pretty good at stealing A ball talent. Dozier to Atlanta for a package around Sims/Wood. Depends on how much Atlanta values Dozier. If they think he is a 4 WAR type, he's a good replacement for Uggla on a win-now team who is also very cheap and this makes sense. If they think last year was a fluke, nothing happens. Sims and Wood are two excellent young arms with #3 upside. Sims was ranked #60 by Sickels and 92 by Mayo. Wood made the majors in just a little over a year after only 24 minor league starts.

Yeah, but he might still hit 50 home runs in that park. Offensive parks help the aging process a lot.

Haven't really heard much about Hughes anywhere yet. I like him at TF a lot. Not really a big Kazmir fan, think he's a big risk and overrated b/c of his strike outs. Rather they got a guy like Nolasco or Arroyo than Kazmir. But yeah, the future is the young guys.

Well there are a few decent FA starters that we could add but it's a lot like last year's class - a lot of meh. I'm hoping Ryan can add another young starter through a trade like he did last year and a college arm like Hoffman (unlikely) or Beede falls to us in the draft. That's the future. It really doesn't matter who starts this year so long as they don't block Gibson, Meyer or May. Ryan's been linked to Arroyo and Nolasco already. So he clearly knows he needs to get more innings from his starters. Let's see what happens.

Runs and RBIs are good but they are very team dependent. A guy like Mauer, for instance, gets ripped on for not getting enough RBIs but he actually knocks in a higher % of runners than many sluggers - he just doesn't get the chance with men on base enough. So judging runs scored in a minor league season doesn't tell you much about the individual prospect. Walker might have played against 3 pitchers who will be ML starters. Every kid in A ball has been a winner their whole life. They are amazing baseball players even if that's as far as they get. Do you know who Cole Garner is? In 06, as a 21 year old, he led all A ball in runs (100) while knocking 19 home runs and 40 doubles. He had a ISO well over .200, walk rate below 5% and a krate at 25%. He was a 26th round pick who managed to play 4 games in the majors. Jonathan Greene, Cody Johnson, Seth Fortenberry. All of these guys scored a lot of runs or hit a lot of home runs or both at A ball at the same age or younger. Johnson was a first round pick who hit 94 minor league home runs before he was 22. He was playing in the indy leagues at 24. Guys who dominated A ball are legion. They were all winners. But those who can't learn to control the strike zone usually don't make it to the majors. And that is what the concern about Walker is all about. No one doubts his tools - he could be a great player. But right now, he is not a great prospect b/c, based on his play, scouts worry about how his hitting approach will work as he starts to face better hitters. (Now, when I say not a great prospect I don't mean to diss him. He'd certainly be a top 10 prospect in other team's systems but right now he's more lottery ticket than prospect. I'm really glad the Twins have him).

I'm not sure the Twins are at a point where they should be in 'win-now' trades. I love Zimmerman but I don't want to give up a lot for a guy who is a free agent in two seasons.

I guess I don't like the idea, esp of Duensing. I sorta see why they at least want to give Swarzak another crack at it but it probably doesn't end well for him. That said, I don't think this is the end of the world. The GM telling two long arms in the pen to be prepared to both start and relieve isn't that strange. See how the rotation shakes out first.

I like Harrison's chances to make the majors and be solid the best. And as a 1st round pick, the team will give him more slack to make it. I think Walker has more tools but he's far away. Hicks is a college guy in A+, hope he makes it but not really a big time prospect. I like Vargas (I saw him at ST, he's huge) but he really has to hit to make it. I'd go Harrison, Vargas/Walker, Hicks

Chase Whitley of the Yankees might get squeezed out, he has decent numbers but we have a lot of bullpen arms. I dunno. I suspect we'll draft someone but it's not going to excite anyone here. It'll be a Scott Diamond if we're lucky.