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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    I posted this in the forums section: I like Mauer but he's never been or will be my favorite player. It just *seems* like he should be better. Part of that is because he does everything so effortlessly - really quite in the batter's box, no wasted movement. Doesn't seem excited (which is why my all time favorite Mauer play was him jumping and tagging out Gardner at home plate in NY). He's physically bigger than Morneau yet he doesn't seem to *want* to hit homeruns. He doesn't seem to let the situation affect him - usually this is good but sometimes it's bad. In a late game, I'd rather Mauer tried to get a hit of a situational lefty rather than take a walk and let the next guy face a shutdown relief pitcher, something that happens quite a bit. He also *seems* tone deaf - esp in 2011 - towards fans and teammates. I hate reading things that suggests that he's "just one of the guys." That drives me nuts. But the guy was, at his best, one of the 5 best players in baseball over several seasons. Seems hard to nit-pick that. It'll be interesting to see if he can be one of the 5 best first basemen this year. My guess is that he puts up a series of pretty quite - high onbase, low counting stats - but solid 4 WAR seasons the next few years and that Sano/Buxton become the face of the franchise and Mauer remains under rated in Twins history. He won't be the best player on our team the next time we have a winning season.
  2. gunnarthor
    I like Mauer but he's never been or will be my favorite player. It just *seems* like he should be better. Part of that is because he does everything so effortlessly - really quite in the batter's box, no wasted movement. Doesn't seem excited (which is why my all time favorite Mauer play was him jumping and tagging out Gardner at home plate in NY). He's physically bigger than Morneau yet he doesn't seem to *want* to hit homeruns. He doesn't seem to let the situation affect him - usually this is good but sometimes it's bad. In a late game, I'd rather Mauer tried to get a hit of a situational lefty rather than take a walk and let the next guy face a shutdown relief pitcher, something that happens quite a bit. He also *seems* tone deaf - esp in 2011 - towards fans and teammates. I hate reading things that suggests that he's "just one of the guys." That drives me nuts. But the guy was, at his best, one of the 5 best players in baseball over several seasons. Seems hard to nit-pick that. It'll be interesting to see if he can be one of the 5 best first basemen this year. My guess is that he puts up a series of pretty quite - high onbase, low counting stats - but solid 4 WAR seasons the next few years and that Sano/Buxton become the face of the franchise and Mauer remains under rated in Twins history. He won't be the best player on our team the next time we have a winning season.
  3. gunnarthor
    Well, I like Toussaint a lot but I don't think he'll be in the conversation at 5 but Hoffman could certainly fall to us.
  4. gunnarthor
    Agree with cmath
  5. gunnarthor
    Well, looking over the last decade or so these players debuted at these ages w/Twins: 20 - Rivas 21 - Ortiz, AJ, Hunter, Guzman, Santana, Adam Johnson, Mauer, Liriano, Casilla, 22 - Milton, Radke, Lohse, Rincon, Cuddy, Morneau, Kubel, Durbin, Crain, Garza, Gomez, Revere, Ramos, Hendriks, Arcia 23 - Mays, Romero, Restovich, Baker, Perkins, Slowey, Benson, Parmelee, Hicks 24 - Dougie Baseball, LeCroy, Jones, Kielty, Bartlett, Boof, Span, Plouffe, Pinto 25 - Koskie, Guerrier, Neshek, Blackburn, Valencia, Waldrop, Swarzak, Gibson 26 - Buchanan, Ford, Duensing This obviously isn't everyone - no need to look at Morales or Miller but it's a decent list. Not sure age tells us much. Obviously, the better players got up faster, which isn't surprising. (I think everyone except Hendriks and Casilla in the 22 or younger groups had been ranked in the top 100 at some time). I tend to think that the Twins are more willing than other teams to let "old" prospects contribute. (In the 24 and older group only Gibson - who had TJ surgery - was ranked by baseball america, I believe). It looks like the Twins have tended to get the franchise type players and the first division complementary players get their feet wet by 22 and hope to establish them within two years of that. I guess I'm just not sure that the Twins have been holding elite talent back. I know some people thought Cuddy should've been a regular before 05/06 and injuries held back guys like Kubel and Gibson and some guys struggled after being called up (Hunter, AJ, Johnson).
  6. gunnarthor
    Yep, looks like his night is over. 5 ip, 3 hits (triple and two singles), no walks and 8 strike outs. He also got 3 ground ball outs against two fly ball outs. He'll get a no-decision because the bullpen immediately blew the lead. He threw 84 pitches in those 5 innings which is a little high but that's just nitpicking at this point. (I think he's got the build to throw 110 pitches if needed without much concern). Anyhow, really nice first start of the season.
  7. gunnarthor
    It takes time. Morneau needed about 1000 ML at bats before he became the Morny we remember. It's unusual for young guys to be good right away. Hicks, Arcia, Pinto are going to struggle but it doesn't mean they won't be good. That's part of rebuilding.
  8. gunnarthor
    On Jackson - if the FO thinks he's the next Will Myers, move him to the OF. But I'm not sure his bat is that good. I haven't read a scouting report on him in awhile.
  9. gunnarthor
    Not sure. In the past they've been pretty big on infield shifts to LFers and they do shift the OFers a lot. Not sure how much RH shifts they do.
  10. gunnarthor
    If he stopped playing today, I think he'd eventually get in. If he has 3-4 more pretty good seasons as a first baseman, I think he gets in. If his next 5 seasons are all repeats of 2011, I think that image of him drags him down and he'd have trouble getting in.
  11. gunnarthor
    Well, they did change strategy when Ryan left and Smith and Johnson took over GM and the draft.
  12. gunnarthor
    He probably doesn't slip (and he probably gets his stuff back together) BUT, right now, if the Astros don't take him, he could slip. No HS RHP has ever been taken #1 and Kolek probably won't be the first but if the Astros take Aiken it could line up pretty well. Miami has already been linked to Kolek and the Cubs are supposed to be in love with Beede. White Sox tend to draft college arms and have scouted Hoffman a lot. So if the top four is Aiken, Kolek, Hoffman, Beede Twins could get Rodon. Right now, I think the Twins end up with Hoffman (and are very happy with that) or Jackson.
  13. gunnarthor
    One other thing that is helping is the moved up signing deadline that lets draft picks get time in the year they were drafted. Huge help.
  14. gunnarthor
    Part of the reason for the "Twins promote slowly" narrative is because, for many years, they had to stick with minor leaguers and not free agents to plug holes (Blackburn's rookie season he was 26, for instance). But they've generally had their better players up early.
  15. gunnarthor
    Good for him. Hopefully he gets to 2000 even faster
  16. gunnarthor
    Agreed. After Buxton/Sano there is a real dearth of impact bats. I think Rosario and Polanco will both hit well for MI but unless someone like Walker, Harrison, Kepler or Vargas really step up, we don't have another scary bat. It's not a total loss since the team just graduated Arcia and Pinto, who would both qualify.
  17. gunnarthor
    To add on to this, Jackson Reetz sounds like a guy that would be on the Twins radar for that second round pick. HS catcher, good defense, will stick behind the plate, MVP of the perfect game showcase. Fairly local, being from Nebraska.
  18. gunnarthor
    I tend to agree on most of this - we are probably going to lose 90 but how Hicks, Arcia, Gibson and Pinto develop is more important to the future. I liked what we saw out of Hicks and Arcia in their few at-bats. Hicks looked like he had a plan, Arcia hit some really hard outs. If those two can stick in the OF and then we add Buxton, that's a nice future. Kubel is a big surprise. I know it's only a few games but he looked just fine. He could be a nice trade chip at the deadline for someone looking to add LH power. Collabello - last year one of mlbtr's writers wrote something basically hoping that Collebello turns into a Jose Bautista-lite. After all, it happens sometimes and the Twins were due for some luck. So, let's hope.
  19. gunnarthor
    He was 17 last year. He'll be a stud but he'll need some time.
  20. gunnarthor
    I don't disagree with anything you said. I think Thorpe gets a lot of national pub so he's the "breakout" that way but a lot of Twins fans already love him. I wondered about Polanco as the breakout guy - I don't think he'll have the OPS that Vargas or Walker will have but he might be the boring guy who does a bit of everything who is underrated. Walker's plate discipline is a huge issue and probably keeps him from the majors. But I don't think A+ is going to be much of a problem for him so he'll put up some very nice power numbers there. Hopefully, he improves his plate discipline. And frankly, after Buxton/Sano, there really are limited options for an impact bat.
  21. gunnarthor
    It's also good to get some gossip on the top guys but I also think it's pretty accessible. We know the Twins will take one of about 10 guys, so please write about them (esp if you have insider info from Twins scouts - I'd love to know what they think of Hoffman and Jackson). That said, I'm a lot more interested in who we might get to fall to us in the second round. Last year, for instance, mlbpipeline's draft list had Ryan Eades #29 and he fell to us at 43. So I'd like to read more about guys that the Twins might nab. Burdi? Alex Verdugo? Mac Marshall? Admittedly that's a tall order.
  22. gunnarthor
    Breakout: I think there are a few good ones to choose from (including Kepler) but I think that, a year from now, Lewis Thorpe is going to be a top 100 prospect on most national lists. (I also like Amaurys Minier a lot). Comeback: Let's put Kepler here. Had a down, injury plagued year last year. Relief pitcher: Lots to choose from. Corey Williams gets it together this year. Starting pitcher: Stewart. He's a stud and ends the year as a top 25 prospect. (I think May and Meyer have good seasons and reach the majors this year). Hitter: Buxton Hitter, non-Buxton division: Adam Walker (also, after Buxton and Sano, the Twins are actually a bit light on impact bats. So hopefully someone - Walker, Kepler, Harrison, Vargas - steps up this year) Way too early draft prediction: Hoffman
  23. gunnarthor
    Maybe we should wait more than 2 games before we complain about Pinto's playing time?
  24. gunnarthor
    Nice write up, Seth.
  25. gunnarthor
    He's not considered a top 5 talent but he'll probably go in the top 15. Barring something strange - an injury - he won't be there in the 2nd round.
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