gunnarthor
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Everything posted by gunnarthor
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Sporting News Ranks Managers By Their Playing Career
gunnarthor replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Other Baseball
I think Joe Posnanski had a piece on this a few years ago when Frank Robinson retired (he'd be #1 on any list). Generally, for a long time, ex-great players as managers were pretty common and some were great (Cap Anson, Tris Speaker). But after Ted Williams failed as manager this theory that 'great players' couldn't relate and therefore teach became ingrained into the game. This article is from a few years ago but states that "It does appear that great players who became managers skewed mightily toward the early parts of baseball. In fact, 46 of the 56 players with at least 50 WAR who became managers began their careers before 1940. Not surprisingly, as these were some of the best players of their time, a large portion also served as player-managers." I think the "can't relate" theory is overstated. I wasn't a huge fan of Molitor's but I have to admit he did a nice job his first year. The players responded well to him and he did things differently. My guess is that a high baseball IQ would be helpful for a manager. -
Yeah, I get that. And you can look at pyth w/l or base runs or whatever model you want. But if you're going to exclude the Twins best period (whatever it is), you should probably exclude the worst as well.
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Not really sure it's fair to call it a "lucky month." Most teams have a hot stretch. Houston started the season 25-13 and played sub .500 ball (61-63) the rest of the way. Twins had a nearly good 38 game stretch in May/June and played about the same (60-64) the rest of the season. Cutting the season into arbitrary endpoints (in this case, months) doesn't really tell us much.
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.270/.340/.380 type hitter is probably what he is now, which is too bad. But if you want to drink the kool-aid, you could point out that many very good hitters (Joe Torre and Ted Simmons for example) have had a rebound season after a few disappointing seasons and Joe could certainly do that.
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I thought last years team would be about a .500ish team and they've improved (and othe AL central teams got worse) so I think they should win 85 or more.
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In another thread, we mentioned how Doolittle hosted a bunch of Syrian refugees for Thanksgiving with his girlfriend. And someone mentioned how the two of them supported LGBT events in Oakland. Now he got her something nice to wear for a night out.
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Who mentioned Arcia? Not me. Not Ryan. Sano is in RF. Buxton will be in CF. Even if they make him sit in AAA for six weeks, he'll be an upgrade over the Hicks/Schafer/Robinson thing last year. As mentioned above, Sano wasn't our fulltime DH and Park should be able to out produce the 1.4 WAR we got from the DH position last year.
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Sure, I thought Hunter was a big help for the young guys last year and his calming influence will probably be missed. But just like Hunter didn't Puckett every year of his career, hopefully these guys won't either.
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Before Sano, Twins DH were among the worst last year. I'm not sure if fangraphs numbers are right but Twins DH's excluding Sano hit 5 HR. Even though I don't think he'll hit as well as Sano, Park will be a consistently good DH for us which is an upgrade. We don't know what will happen with Buxton and Sano in CF and RF (although not knowing sure hasn't stopped people from claiming the sky will fall). But both are truly elite prospects and there isn't a lot of reason to think they can't improve on the numbers the Twins got from center and right last year.
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Yeah, you missed something but you missed it last year, too. This is a better team.
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Ryan has already upgraded the team at C, RF, CF and DH from last year. Our bullpen has Perkins, Jepsen and May at the back end and even if he doesn't sign a single free agent they have guys like Tonkin, Pressly, Meyer, Chargois, etc to fill it out plus possibly two failed starters and Burdi, who is not yet on the 40 man roster. I actually like Pressly and I don't think Burdi's that far away. They'll be fine.
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Ownership and the value of a winning culture
gunnarthor replied to DaveW's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
But only the Giants, Red Sox and Yankees have won more World Series since the Pohlads took over. So they must be the 4th best owners. -
Levi hit it on the head but it also goes back to my main point - I'm voting on three issues and only those three. I don't like the fear mongering that comes from Democrats trying to convince others to vote for Hilary. She is absolutely horrible on the three issues I care about so I will never vote for her. Frankly, one could make an argument that some GOP candidates could be better on immigration than her.
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Yeah, that's their problem. But a smart candidate can get through it. Romney should have but didn't. Rubio (I think) will. What was the biggest surprise of the 2012 primary? I think it was Santorum's strong showing and he was winning not because of his conservative bonafides but because he was attacking Romney as being an out of touch rich white dude - he played up class issues. A lot of Santorum's attack strategy was used by the Obama team in the general. If Santorum could have stayed on message and not get dragged into culture wars (usually of his own making) he could have upset Romney. All the GOP needs to do is elect a nominee who isn't radioactive to the middle and who can talk about income inequality. That could be Rubio this cycle. But the next GOP president will fit that mold.
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Huge assumption.
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What issue do you think will be gone? The Court isn't going to overturn Roe, conservative courts have already upheld Miranda and Obamacare. Liberal justices long ago gave up the fight on police reform. Sure, we'll get some ****ty decisions but is that worry worth turning the democratic party into GOP-lite?
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In 1990, there were articles wondering if a democrat would ever be President again. The only Democratic President in 25 years was elected solely because of the greatest political scandal in history. The democratic nominees were punch lines. Barring another watergate, the demographics made it nearly impossible for the Dems to be anything other than a regional party. The GOP's southern strategy had worked to perfection and the Dems had no stronghold anywhere. And we know how that turned out. The GOP is not a doomed party - the tea party might be.
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Why should I vote for her? The fear mongering gets you nowhere. I've heard for decades now that the GOP will get rid of social security or medicare. Now they'll get rid of healthcare. No they won't. A President Rubio wouldn't be able to do that even if he wanted to. Supreme Court? Again, more fear mongering. No liberal justice will retire under Rubio and vice versa. I also don't hold the USSC in quite as much disdain as others. The court isn't nearly as important as other things. And while we're at it, is Kagen that good of a judge? Her views on qualified immunity are a joke. In her mind, protesters shouldn't be within "hand grenade" throwing distance. You think Clinton's going to nominate a justice that will actually limit things like targeted killing? What gap is there between Clinton and Rubio on the economy? Income inequality grew a ton under Obama - by some measures, it was worse than under either Bush or Reagan. Hilary and Rubio would argue about a few things around the edges but both will absolutely support Wall St and oppose banking regulations. Absolutely no difference. A republican is going to be President again, maybe this election cycle, maybe the next one. It might be good for the Democrats to lose this one and figure out what the Democratic party should be about - but a hawkish, pro-Wall St, anti-immigrant, non-transparent, anti-civil libertarian is probably not the type of person we should be supporting.
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I'm voting on three issues this year - income inequality, immigration and civil liberties. Clinton is as bad as the GOP on all, so I won't vote for her. She's strongly supported by Wall St (and blamed 9/11 for their support of her); she threw sanctuary cities under the bus and argued that the refugee children should be sent back to central america to teach their parents a lesson; and openly supports targeted killing and proudly defended her vote on the Patriot Act. Screw that.
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12 pages! This beat the Benson thread, right?
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Hicks-Murphy Trade Looking Worse By The Minute
gunnarthor replied to Tom Froemming's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I think Rosario's the better player, period. He's a better defender and a much better bet to play a corner OF spot. Plus, he's a Molitor guy and the Twins soured on Hicks. And he's cheaper. Hicks on-base ability was good but it isn't enough absent some improvement elsewhere, which we haven't seen in 3 years. Now he could turn it around in NY - it's a nice park to hit in - but outside of July last year, he has never shown an ability to hit, especially against RHP. -
She's a better debater than Sanders (although I thought O'Malley, given what time he had, was better than both. I wish he had gotten the Sanders surge instead but Baltimore ruined that) but she's not a great debater. I think Rubio is much better and closer to the Clinton/Obama level than any GOP candidate in some time. I don't like his positions but he's a great politician - he stays on point, rarely gaffs, looks good, knows his sound bites and has created a good image for the general election. You're right though that getting the nomination while still being electable to the masses will be difficult. The GOP made Romney look like a far right crazy guy after all. (Reminds me of the GOP story in 04 - we made Al Gore look like an elitist New England liberal and now we get to go after Kerry? - but in reverse). I share your problems with Clinton. I'm a pretty reliable dem but I will not vote for her. I'll throw my vote away and vote for the Crazy-ass Socialist Workers Party United or something before voting for her (or Rubio).
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I honestly think Rubio will beat Clinton in the general. An article in the Post today showed that Rubio was doing pretty well with young voters (with the caveat that polls this far out are meaningless). But he's a pretty good politician and he'll contrast nicely (for the GOP) against Clinton.
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Buy stock in a ladder company
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First, it probably wasn't that much of an off year. Mauer is what he is and that isn't going to change now. But as to his spot in the batting order, having your best OBP guy #3 isn't bad. I read a study on lineups at HBT a few years back and the first conclusion on lineups is that it really didn't matter. On a day to day basis, fans greatly overreact to lineups. But, the optimal lineup, in their analysis, was having your three best hitters in the 1, 2 and 4 spots. The #3 spot was really overrated and having a competent hitter there would be enough.
