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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    Let's ignore the PED debate. I've always been iffy on Raines. He had a great peak but it was really short. He only had 6 seasons that were really HOF worthy, I think. in 21 seasons, he had fewer 4 WAR seasons than Jack Morris and Keith Hernandez and same number as John Olerud, Brad Radke and Tony Oliva. I think his peak was just too short. That said, if you think Raines is a HOFer, I don't know how you could not vote for Nomar whose peak was much better - unless you're using the compiler method.
  2. gunnarthor
    Things get more interesting as Zimmerman has filed a defamation lawsuit against Al Jazeera. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/01/ryan-zimmerman-sues-al-jazeera.html
  3. gunnarthor
    And she also made a list for pitchers and put Duffey on it. http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/67388/picks-to-click-breakout-pitchers-for-2016 "Duffey used up his rookie status with his late-season summoning to shore up the rotation down the stretch, so he’s somebody I’ll squeeze in here because nobody should lose sight of him among the Milones or Nolascos (or more highly touted farmhands like Jose Berrios, Trevor May and Alex Meyer). But in Duffey’s 10-start spin with the Twins, he notched seven quality starts and 8.2 K/9. With his combo of low-90s heat, a nasty curve and exceptional command, you might think he’s a cookie cutter-perfect product of the assembly line that gave us dominating control fiend Brad Radke back in the day. Putting him here reflects my expectation that he’ll live up to that tradition." I would be thrilled if he can be another Radke.
  4. gunnarthor
    Boring part of the baseball year now but Christina Kahrl posted her 10 breakout hitters for 2016 and Miguel Sano was #1. http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/67405/picks-to-click-breakout-hitters-for-2016 Fun read. Likes Sano's power and finishes her write up on him with "So, while the 2014 injury delayed his arrival, Sano is just beginning to come into his own. He won't just be the centerpiece in a much-improved Twins lineup, he'll be an instant MVP candidate. And if I'm going to pick anybody to win the American League home run crown in 2016, I'm picking Sano, here and now." Also fun, #10 on her list is Park - "When I asked ESPN Insider's Dan Szymborski for a peek at what ZiPS might project, an OPS around .800 and 27 home runs was on the table, which is well worth talking about here. Between Park and Byron Buxton, the Twins should have a tandem with the talent between them to take home the AL's Rookie of the Year award in 2016."
  5. gunnarthor
    Of the list, Gordon's the easy answer - during a chat last year, a BP writer gave him a future 70 value and other writers defended it. He can stick at short and should be a good hitter. I really like him. Jay will be fine. Stewart is the most interesting prospect we have this year, IMHO. I'm very interested to see how he does and if he can improve on his strikeout numbers. I think this year will answer a lot of questions, one way or other. I'm not nearly as high on Gonsalves or Walker as others. I think the Twins have 4 pitchers who could be a #1 or #2 starter (stuff-wise) if things broke right - Berrios, Jay, Meyer and Stewart. Walker needs plate discipline badly. Of those not listed, I actually like Thrylos' mention of Melotakis but I think Burdi is the pitching answer. He'll be a big weapon in the ML pen by July.
  6. gunnarthor
    Yeah, this. He'll probably be the first DH option after Park.
  7. gunnarthor
    I thought he wasn't playing winter ball but I guess I don't know for sure. Even if he isn't paying winter ball, I'm sure the Twins had some sort of offseason plan for him that (hopefully) he worked on.
  8. gunnarthor
    Kind of a bummer but it looks like the next GOT book will not be released before season six of the HBO show. http://io9.gizmodo.com/therell-be-no-winds-of-winter-before-game-of-thrones-se-1750681299 On the plus side, it seems to suggest that the book will probably be released this year.
  9. gunnarthor
    Again, we just see things differently. I think most people accept that juicing in the NFL is extremely common to the point that when the starting NFL LT, C and punter for the super bowl team "filled repeated prescriptions for a banner steroid less than two weeks before they played in the Super Bowl" people don't even care because they know the other teams guys were doing it too. Hell, people don't even remember. Compare that to the outrage we get when Milky Cabrera helped the Giants make the postseason. You're just rehashing the same arguments others have - ARod trained harder than anyone ever. He juiced. If you don't think PED use is common, fine. Nothing I say will sway you - but the former MLB investigator estimates "conservatively" that about 20% of the players are on some sort of illegal PED. That sounds about right to me.
  10. gunnarthor
    Well, Ben, I guess we can both agree that the more knowledge about illegal PED use is a good thing. I disagree with pretty much everything else you suggest and it was a pretty common argument a decade ago when TrueNiners was defending Bonds. If you don't think PED use is common in the NFL, fine, you'll never think it's an issue in baseball. Enjoy the game as you see fit. At the end of the day, it's just entertainment.
  11. gunnarthor
    This thread reminded me of a conversation I had with a co-worker. He was a big wrestling fan and brought his niece to a WWE event last year. The conversation meandered as they always do and eventually a few of us mentioned that The Rock had obviously juiced. My co-worker would not believe it. In any event, hopefully there are more of these reports coming to shine a light on the amount of PED use is professional (and high school and college) sports.
  12. gunnarthor
    I was just pointing out how easily it is to get a doctor on board.
  13. gunnarthor
    Someone earlier made the point that an excessively large portion of MLB players had a prescription for adderdal. While MLB "experts" had to sign off on it, a doctor must first prescribe it. http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2014/3/24/5543452/mlb-players-poll-PED-steroids-ryan-braun
  14. gunnarthor
    Yeah, the little information we have on PED use suggests that this isn't a big problem for players to overcome.
  15. gunnarthor
    I do think things like this Al Jeezera report are generally good in that they can shine a light on the impact of illegal PEDs in sports and, perhaps, how common it is. Obviously, Ben and I have a vastly different idea of how widespread such practices are and Jimmer and I seem to have a pretty different view on how effective such PEDs are. The more information that comes out will at least illuminate those issues. I also agree with Don that the PEDs penalties in baseball are only aimed at players - despite the Mitchell report saying the blame for PED use was on the players and baseball equally. Teams should face some sort of punishment as well if MLB really wanted to get PEDs out of their sport.
  16. gunnarthor
    Maybe, maybe not. But it was an advantage that they had. Perhaps their massive payroll was a bigger advantage. But looking back it's a bit naive to assume that it wasn't an advantage that some teams had over other teams - unlike in football, where the doping has been pretty universal.
  17. gunnarthor
    My brother had this on his facebook link today. Pretty bad language so i won't copy/paste any of it but explains why Kylo is a lot tougher than people are giving him credit for. http://imgur.com/gallery/7EhqwbF
  18. gunnarthor
    My problem with PEDS in baseball has always been that it's uneven. I have no doubt that the Viking players use just as many and the same PEDs as the Giants or Cowboys. It's universal. But baseball seemed to have a pretty uneven playing field. In the report, a former MLB investigator estimates about 20% of players on the 40 man rosters are using some sort of PED. And even at the peak of the steroid era, the reliable estimates were 50-60% of players. It's never been even among teams and that gave the teams that were willing to roid a big advantage. So I do get a little ticked when a team like the Yankees steam rolls its way to 100 wins and bounces us relying on guys like Giambi, Pettitte, ARod, etc. And Brad Radke and Andy Pettitte were nearly identical pitchers for 12 years in IP and WAR but Radke broke down and had to retire while Pettitte got to keep playing and get HOF consideration.
  19. gunnarthor
    http://www.si.com/mlb/2015/12/27/ryan-howard-ryan-zimmerman-deny-hgh-claims Lost in the Manning hoopla was the fact that the Al Jazeera report on unlawful PED use also included allegations that Ryan Howard, Taylor Teagarden and Ryan Zimmerman used Delta-2 or HGH. Like Manning, Zimmerman is denying the allegations and the Nats are standing behind him. The report can be found here. It argues that so long as players know what the testing rules are, they can always hide from it (Lance Armstrong passed 500 tests, ARod never failed one) and the only way to catch them is through investigations. It notes that players will travel to other countries to do things that they can't do in America. Interesting report.
  20. gunnarthor
    I like the idea that Rey is related to Obi Wan. I'd also like it if she wasn't related to anyone and they don't keep making the universe seem small. But I would guess she's related to either Obi Wan or Luke. I disagree about Kylo Ren. I think he'll be one of the two main bad guys (along with the new emperor or whatever it's called). He killed a beloved character. Beat up Fin pretty bad (while bleeding out from a blaster charge), tortured Poe. His tears were where he was saying good bye to Ben Solo and he became Kylo Ren completely after that (at least that's how I saw it). I liked that he looked like a more dimensional bad guy than Vader was but still chose to become a complete bad guy. His training isn't complete. Maybe he'll kill his mom next.
  21. gunnarthor
    Fun movie although I'm not as big into Star Wars as I used to be. I waited a week+ to see it while I saw Episodes 1-3 on opening day. But good case (I've always loved Oscar Isaac) and good characters. Also, I was surprised by how much I liked Kylo Ren without his helmet. He looked like some emo-teen yet it still worked. And I think what he did on the bridge is telling us that, unlike Vader, he won't be redeemed.
  22. gunnarthor
    Yeah, from a baseball stand point, it's a pretty good deal for the Yankees (although Davis has some potential to be a Trevor May like pitcher, I think).
  23. gunnarthor
    The article addresses that a bit - "Inside-Edge credits major-league teams for saving 179 hits over what was expected with an excellent play as of Tuesday, while bad defense was blamed for allowing 156 hits that normally would be outs. But that seems like a drop in the bucket given that position players have had 76,112 total chances this season. Baseball’s best defensive team, the Houston Astros, has saved only 25 hits all season because of the skill of its defenders, according to Inside-Edge."
  24. gunnarthor
    I think you have to be really careful with defensive stats - we talked a lot about this last year with the Hunter signing. Depending on what defensive stat you want to use, he might be good or bad - fangraphs UZR went from negative to positive last year while b-r went from positive to neutral. And a lot of people have warned about the reliability of one years worth of defensive data, as well. A WSJ article last year put a lot of this into perspective: "Inside-Edge, a baseball analytics company that provides data to major-league teams, brings a big-data approach to scouting. Instead of just using a spray chart to calculate a player’s defensive value, their scouts watch every single play from every single team—twice. And by taking positioning into account in grading the difficulty of plays, Inside-Edge scouts not only found that the range of many players was being overstated, but so too was the overall importance of defense in preventing runs. The major revelation: The quality of a fielder doesn’t matter on most plays. Inside-Edge partner Kenny Kendrena says 24% of plays are almost always hits and 62% are almost always outs. The remaining plays where defenders can really distinguish themselves are so infrequent, he said, that the success in converting them can distort a fielder’s true skill." I think Dozier's defense at second base is good enough - he passes the eye test but isn't a gold glover.
  25. gunnarthor
    Wow, that's a lot more $ than I thought he'd get. Good for him.
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