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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    Walker and Meyer had zero trade value last year. Rosario was our starting OFer and wasn't going to be traded. Cueto got a top pitching prospect (our equivalent would have been Berrios). Phillies got a huge haul, including a top catching prospect. A similar trade would have been something like Milone, Berrios, Kepler and Hu and I'm still not sure if that would have been a better package than what the Phillies got. We certainly weren't going to get an ace without giving up a top prospect and Walker, Rosario and Meyer weren't top prospects.
  2. gunnarthor
    Sure, but the team stats are dragged down (significantly) by guys who don't seem to be a big part of the the future. The DRS and UZR/150 from fangraphs for our projected starters next year are: 1b Mauer 5 and 2 2b Dozier 3 and 0 3b Sano -3 and 5 SS Polanco -1 and 7.1 LF Rosario 0 and 4.9. CF Buxton 6 and 5 RF Kepler 2 and -4. None of those, except Buxton, are great but none of those are gawd awful either. The worst numbers we had were from guys like Santana in CF (-8 and -10) or Nunez, etc. That's not a great defense but it's a lot better than a defense that has Grossman and Santana in the OF and Nunez and Escobar in the IF. * And all this is with the huge grain of salt that defensive stats are a bit wonky, hard to value and hard to measure.
  3. gunnarthor
    I'm really hoping this late season collapse changes ownership's mind b/c Molitor should have been fired in May.
  4. gunnarthor
    Ignoring everything else, I suspect the Pohlads will still require the next GM to keep payroll low. This team will never be big spenders in FA and we probably won't lock up Sano/Buxton et al much beyond their 6 years of team control.
  5. gunnarthor
    If you think he can't remain good, why would professional GMs? If his perceived value is that of an average second baseman, he won't bring much back at all so the Twins are better off keeping him.
  6. gunnarthor
    Part of it is going to be patience. Berrios should be a big part of our future rotation. I thought Gibson would be a good player this year but ... ugh. But Berrios and Mejia (and Gonsalves) are going to struggle some. One other option for the new GM might be to try and fix our bullpen. Our bullpen has thrown the most innings in the AL and giving up the most inherited runners (and has the highest IR score rate, too). Burdi, Chagois, Melotakis, Meyer and May (and Jepsen and Perkins) all had pretty ****ty years so maybe the new GM spends money there since the FA starting market is so bad. Additionally, the Twins could try and trade someone like Kepler (2.5 WAR already) instead of Dozier. Lastly, maybe a new catcher through FA would be better at pitch framing (I'm really not sure how important that is but a few of the FA catchers are supposed to be good at that).
  7. gunnarthor
    OK, but if you don't want to wait for Berrios to figure it out, why would you want to add more prospects? We won't get a prospect better than Berrios back in a trade so if we don't want to rely on him, why would we want to rely on any prospect?
  8. gunnarthor
    Fair point on the Donaldson trade - that was one of the great heists and I forgot that it was him that pulled that off.
  9. gunnarthor
    Yeah, I've read about that, as well. It makes sense - esp for "small" investors which most of us probably are. When you invest your money, you should have an idea about how the company works.
  10. gunnarthor
    * never spend big money on a FA pitcher. FA hitters are a bit safer but not much. And keep in mind, both Nolasco and Santana were the #4 FA pitcher in their FA class and both were top 10 overall dollar FA signings in those years.
  11. gunnarthor
    Interesting. I thought he was overrated in Toronto and made some pretty bad trades - Dickey - but he's certainly a different type of GM than we've had and presumably he's learned a lot as a GM. His time in LA probably helps too and he'd have a pretty good grasp of their prospects if/when the teams discuss a Dozier trade, as well. I'm not sure he'll be ok with the payroll issues he'd be given here that he didn't get in Toronto and LA but we could certainly do worse.
  12. gunnarthor
    The Twins were never (and should never) spend 150m on the age 30-36 seasons for a pitcher like Cueto. Just like they were right to not spend 86m on Anibal Sanchez who, as expected, turned into a pumpkin.
  13. gunnarthor
    Very excited to see Gonsalves in the AFL. Good for him.
  14. gunnarthor
    The minor league reports are fantastic. I loved the old sethspeaks website and followed it here. The prospect stuff is some of the best things we fans have. Great work everyone.
  15. gunnarthor
    I still think the new GM won't trade him but I'm starting to rethink my position that there wouldn't be high demand for him. Still might not get equal value for him but he's probably going to bring back more than I think.
  16. gunnarthor
    Good for Beresford. I hope he does well.
  17. gunnarthor
    My understanding, which could be wrong, was that many HS players have longer swings than practical b/c the HS pitchers don't throw as fast. So young professional hitters have to learn to quicken their swing, usually by quieting down their mechanics. I don't know if that's what happened with Buxton. I do remember Morneau and Kubel both going through that. I don't think it's surprising at all that Buxton's HS swing would not be effective at the ML level.
  18. gunnarthor
    Take this for what it's worth but Cafardo has a few notes on the search. http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2016/09/03/nick-cafardo-how-toronto-boston-baltimore-compare-entering-final-four-weeks/EYRmqKwZJ9Wcf1Eb5m0fRK/story.html Jason McLeod, assistant GM, Cubs — Given the Cubs’ success and McLeod’s outstanding draft record, it’s apparent the search firm hired to find qualified candidates for the Twins’ GM job will spit out McLeod’s name. McLeod did not respond to questioning on whether he would accept such a job at this time. In our last interview with McLeod, he expressed a desire to stay in Chicago to be close to his children and finish off the business of winning a championship. The Twins may also hire a president of baseball operations. Suffice to say, the running of the Twins, one of the more traditional teams in the league, will never be the same. Ben Cherington, former GM, Red Sox — Cherington will also likely be a candidate for the Twins’ job. A year later, Cherington’s moves in Boston look much different. Among them, acquiring Rick Porcello for Yoenis Cespedes; not trading his top prospects for Cole Hamels (who has been excellent in Texas); signing Hanley Ramirez, who has worked out at first base and at the plate (though the left field experiment was a failure); the signing of Yoan Moncada; and the drafting of Andrew Benintendi.
  19. gunnarthor
    Where are the Twins bad on defense? Looking at fangraphs, the Twins expected starters all seem to grade fairly well defensively. The biggest offenders by DRS are Grossman LF, Sano RF, Santana CF, Escobar SS, Plouffe 3B, Nunez 3B, Nunez SS, Sano 3B. Only Sano is expected to start next year. By UZR it's mostly the same group except it likes Sano better and Kepler worse. So it looks like an OF of Rosario/Buxton/Kepler would be good defensively and an infield of Sano/Polanco/Dozier/Mauer would be solid although not above avg.
  20. gunnarthor
    uff-da. http://screengrabber.deadspin.com/torii-hunter-jr-helped-off-field-after-being-blasted-i-1786178833 Really should have been a penalty on that call. Out of curiousity, does anyone know if Hunter jr ever considered baseball or was football always his sport? I would imagine with his bloodlines, baseball would have been watching him for years.
  21. gunnarthor
    No, b/c I'm able to base it on more than a stat line in a few starts. I like Meyer and think Molitor really misused him but let's not pretend that this is all on the Twins. Meyer has been unable to make the changes/adjustments that pitchers need to make. Putting all the blame on the Twins is foolish.
  22. gunnarthor
    7th. Not sure why you're always making that mistake. http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2015.shtml
  23. gunnarthor
    Long-term, he's an absolute stud who just needs reps. He'll be fine and we'll all be very, very happy we have him.
  24. gunnarthor
    I'm not sure that's the list to condemn the Twins. You have three guys - Gutierrez, Hunt and Boyd - who flat out didn't make it (injuries affected Gutierrez). Gibson has made a bunch of starts at the ML level although he hasn't been as good as hoped. Berrios is a stud. Wimmers moved to the bullpen and it's still too early to make a ruling on Stewart (or Jay). Frankly, that seems about right considering the actual draft range these guys were taken in. I mentioned this on TT but it's somewhat surprising how little pitching the Twins took in 06 and 07 and I'm not sure if Johnson's reliever strategy is helping. My personal opinion is that Steil has done a very good job as farm director since he took over (2012) and that the drafts after Ryan gave Radcliff an advisory role have been better. If the new GM makes changes, fine, he knows more than me but I think Steil has done enough to keep his job and Johnson has improved enough to stay as well.
  25. gunnarthor
    The damage was already done by the time Anthony made the trade. Molitor just wasn't going to use him. He didn't play him much in 15 and ignored him in 16 - he age 25 and 26 seasons. I remember when Gardy was begging for him to start 14 in the bullpen (ala Santana) but was rebuffed - that was the closest Gardy ever got to calling out the chicken **** rosters he was given. I think how Molitor has treated some of the young guys - yanking them in and out, calling them out in the media, not letting them play and/or playing them in the wrong role - is exhibit A on why he shouldn't be managing this team anymore. But as for Meyer, I hope he does well for the Angels.
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