gunnarthor
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Everything posted by gunnarthor
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Actually, that's not true. Morneau didn't become Morneau until about 1000 ML PA. Guzman struggled a lot before becoming an all-star. Koskie didn't make the bigs til 26. Cuddyer had the bust label on him. Scott Baker was sent back and forth to AAA several times. Etc, etc. Young players struggle on every team.
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I'm not really sure that's true. They signed Lester coming off a 73 win season. I think it's fair to say that Lester helped them go from a losing team to a winning team. At a certain point, we're probably talking past ourselves. I think we both agree that the Cubs have created a great core through great trades and some solid draft picks - something that the Twins could also do to some extent. We probably disagree to the degree the FA signings have helped the Cubs but we both can agree that the Twins can do better at FA signings than they have while recognizing they have less room for error than the Cubs.
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While I don't doubt Gleeman's pessimism, he's not really a scout. BP wrote just a few months ago: "And a regular he shall likely be, as Gordon can really pick it at shortstop. He makes the plays in front of him, and he also has well above-average range. Add in a strong, accurate throwing arm, and you get a guy who turns hits into outs on a routine basis." At the end of June, Quinn Berry wrote for minor league ball: "Nick's defense at shortstop is where he really solidifies his status as a top prospect. He's not Andrelton Simmons, but he will stick at shortstop in the big leagues, a huge plus for any young player. Gordon, a former pitcher, can throw up to 94 miles per hour across the diamond and couples that arm strength with soft hands, good instincts, and quick feet. Further, while Gordon does not have elite speed, he stays low and athletic when fielding and gets tremendous reads on the ball. Overall, he is a very smooth fielder, which shows through the numbers. Gordon's .960 fielding percentage is tops in the Midwest League among players with at least 35 games at short. FV Field Grade: 55/60 FV Arm Grade: 70" And Sickels just reexamined his top 100 and moved Gordon up to 40. It'll be interesting to hear what the evaluations of Gordon say the next few months but I suspect they still see him sticking at short.
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Now we've gone from comparing their payroll to the Twins to the average team and you're asking us to ignore signing their ace and Heyward. That's like saying, "except for Mauer, the Twins can't develop catchers." I don't think it's controversial to say that the Cubs wouldn't have made it to 90 wins if they didn't sign 3/5 of their rotation, their entire OF and all-star second baseman. They still had a great core but those FA were a huge, huge addition. It wasn't window dressing or add-ons.
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- theo epstein
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Well, the Chicago Tribune endorsed Johnson. That's a fairly significant endorsement considering the paper had endorsed Obama twice, despite generally being republican-leaning. It's also Clinton's "home state" or so. Obviously, it won't affect anything but it's something for third party hopefuls. http://www.politico.com/blogs/on-media/2016/09/chicago-tribune-endorses-gary-johnson-228951
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The game changed. Even when a starter is going well, there is too much pressure on the manager to limit his innings (over a season) or pitch count (in a game). And nowadays, most pitchers are on limits in the minors in the first place. I don't really care about CG anymore but I would like a Twins pitcher to throw 200 innings again.
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I have not seen a single report that says that.
- 35 replies
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Well, that's demonstrably not true. WAR is certainly not a great end-all but those 8 FA amassed 21.5 WAR so far and that ignores the impact of some large salaries the Cubs were able to add in-season (over 15m). While Rizzo, Russell, Baez and Bryant are a great core, that wasn't a 90 win team without those FA.
- 42 replies
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I think the concern with Vielma is that his bat won't play at the ML level and he'd be another Pedro Florimon. And while he gets rave reviews around here for his defense, national scouting reports don't have him ranked as highly. So if he's just an above average defender (instead of elite) with no bat ...
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It's always nice to hear from the cheap seats.
- 42 replies
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Sure, I don't think anyone disagrees with that - the Cubs have done wonderfully smart things that the Twins can certainly try and emulate. They've also used their payroll advantage successfully. I'm not sure why that's controversial but it certainly seems to be for some.
- 42 replies
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- theo epstein
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So, your argument is: Ignore Lester; Zorbist, Lackey, Hammel and Jackson = Santana, Hughes, Nolasco; Ignore Heyward; Ignore the other 40m on this years payroll for the other FA and this makes them equal to the Twins in 2011 with inflation factored in? Really? (And it doesn't b/c inflation isn't that big). And we haven't even mentioned how their payroll advantages allow them to add on salary for guys like Chapman, Smith, Montero. The Cubs have done a lot of stuff right but they've been able to spend their way out of a number of mistakes. That's a huge advantage that they have. I have no idea why you are trying to minimize that other than to try and claim a level playing field that clearly doesn't exist. They have a 185m payroll. That's a huge asset which they have used very well. But it's not a realistic plan for the Twins under the Pohlads.
- 42 replies
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- theo epstein
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This was the year I was going to be a libertarian but, my god. I might just vote for the American Delta Party which is actually on our ballot.
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As much as I hate WFC (see a few pages ago) it's a great stock and the dividends really make it worth it. I think people really underestimate dividend reinvestment and how much that helps build your portfolio. I also think short-term trading - unless you're a pro - is less successful in the long run. Remember that you're taxed at a higher tax rate for stocks you've held less than a year.
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That narrative is incorrect. Since Epstein and Hoyer took over, they've had 5 guys make the majors that they've drafted and only one, Bryant, is a "crushed pick". Obviously, too early to say the others won't be good but they are not the reason the Cubs are winning 100+ games this year. They've built around free agents and great trades.
- 42 replies
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- theo epstein
- derek falvey
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Right, but when they make a 50m signing, they go make another. Those 8 FA that have managed 1 WAR are making nearly 93m this year. That doesn't count the nearly 20m the Cubs are paying for FA that have been worth less than that or were released but who they are still paying. And even if you take out Lester and Heyward, their payroll is still over 125m which is roughly 20m more than the Twins. I'm honestly not sure how anyone can look at the Cubs and appreciate how much the ability to buy has helped this team.
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- theo epstein
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I was big on Cabbage but he really does need to start producing. Blankenhorn has done far better.
- 35 replies
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Probably makes more sense to look at Cleveland's run the last few years - you know, where Falvey worked. The Cubs turn around involved some very nice trades but it also involved spending lots of money on high impact free agents. They have 16 guys on their roster who have managed 1.0 WAR or more - 8 of them were free agents - including 3 of their 5 starters (Lackey, Lester and Hammel). They've also been extremely healthy this year - 5 starters have made 29 or more starts.
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No. Those were pretty racist laws at the time. People knew it. We spoke out against it. Clinton did have to turn right b/c of the Contract with America and the upcoming election and took it out on blacks by stereotyping them as welfare moms and thugs or super predators. He had room to move on that b/c the GOP had made itself so incredibly unpopular he had the room to move - much like how the Dems have ****ed over immigrants today but still get stronger support b/c of the GOP's stupidity on immigration. But that doesn't forgive Clinton for her role in it. Nor should we forgive her for the race baiting she did against Obama in 08.
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Well, first, let's not assume I'd vote for Trump. He's a joke. I might throw my vote away on a third party candidate if the polls aren't close. If they are close in my state, I'll swallow and probably vote for Clinton. But she's nowhere near as angelic as you are painting her. She opposed civil rights in her youth, campaigned for one of the worst racial laws in the 90s, race baited against Obama in 08 and threw immigrants under the bus in the election season. She has a real history of being just **** on these issues.
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Changing opinions is fair. Changing your viewpoint b/c that's what voters want to hear is a different thing. Do you see that difference?
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Fun little article on Kaepernick - http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/9/29/1575861/-Kaepernick-calls-out-both-Trump-and-Clinton
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Sure it is. Telling voters what they want to hear rather than holding actual positions is lying. It's more nuanced than a straight up lie but it's the same. Unless you really think she changed her position on Wall St, TPP, sanctuary cities, SSM b/c she evolved (in her late 60s) - and some she's changed several times - then she's lying to you. She's saying what she thinks she needs to say to get elected.
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I think we're a bit pessimistic (for good reason) but the team does have some good things going for it. As Klaw noted, we do have some nice young talent already. The offense is solid and should continue to get better. The real problem is pitching, which ideally Falvey has a plan for. It was probably brought up in his interview.
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Balazovic is the obvious guy in this group. I really liked last years draft - lots of really young HS players. It'll be fun to see them develop.
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- randy rosario
- mason melotakis
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