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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    The reason everyone keeps saying it was De Leon and junk is because that's what is the most likely, both by what has been reported by credible sources as well as looking at the deal the Rays got. Steve Adams at mlbtraderumors referred to the Dodgers offer as "junk." Jon Heyman reported that teams view the Dodgers as stingy. The Dodgers version of Dave tweeted that the "Dodgers didn't want to part with their own prospect" so, according to him, their best version involved LA surrendering only De Leon and Alex Wood. So I think it's pretty fair to refer to their offer as De Leon and junk. And as we're starting to hear how more and more baseball people view De Leon, it looks even worse.
  2. gunnarthor
    In fairness, the Cubs spent 220m on their team. The Twins *could* spend their way out of this but they won't because 1) they don't have the kind of market that could support that and 2) the Pohlads wouldn't do it. The Astros. Man, I don't get them. The Giles trade, the Gomez trade, the Gattis trade, the Villar trade. I don't know what happens if Correa, Altuve and Bregman aren't otherworldly again. I look at their roster and the talent they've moved off and I think they are walking a real fine line. Smarter people think they're a great team. Not sure, I'm probably wrong and they've been better these last two seasons but I have no idea what they're doing.
  3. gunnarthor
    Well, we disagree on the trade comps, fine. I do think you need to find a trade that you think sets Dozier's value. You might say Dozier and Forsythe are equal therefore that's his value (I would disagree, of course). But I'm pretty much in the camp that the Twins didn't trade Dozier out of fear. They kept him because they weren't acting afraid. What you are suggesting is actually doing something out of fear. And I think pretty much everyone agrees that De Leon would be a bad return for Dozier. Those who disagree with you don't think anything remotely close to Dozier's value was ever on the table - I continue to believe it was basically just De Leon and junk but it might have been just De Leon. As for Perkins, had he pitched better in Sept 2015, we might have made the playoffs so I'm 'meh' on not trading him. I was for it before he signed the extension but understood why and was ok with keeping him. He was pitching in important games for us.
  4. gunnarthor
    Realistically, we traded him for the 2024 version of Hu.
  5. gunnarthor
    OK. So we haven't started the rebuild. Got it. What should we have done specifically?
  6. gunnarthor
    Worked out so far. I have two episodes left but the season held up fairly well. The episode where the legal system plays a big role in one character's custody battle pissed me off because that's not even remotely how our system works - I have a huge problem with most TV shows and can't watch things like CSI or Law and Order and such - but the characters are mostly interesting, if not always likable. The Doctor is cute and there seems to be a lot of room for story lines to develop to keep it fresh and interesting. I think it could be a bit more upbeat but that's not what it's going for. But I'll watch the second season if they make it. That said, it's nowhere near as great as Stranger Things, which is the best thing I've seen on Netflix and just a tremendously great new show. (With one really dumb move by the cop that I'll forgive for keeping the show going).
  7. gunnarthor
    Kind of off topic but what do you think should have been done at the end of the 2013 season that wasn't? I get it, you'd fire Ryan after two years on the job and Gardy. Fine, then what? Trade Perkins, I imagine. Maybe capitalize on Dozier since he's not likely to be a 3.5 WAR player again. And you have the 5th pick in the draft. You have about an 85m payroll. Ownership might let you spend another 20. But it was a weak FA class - http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014-mlb-free-agent-tracker Nolasco/Jiminez/Garza all signed the same 4/50 deal and were tied for second on the SP salary. With the benefit of hindsight, what do you do?
  8. gunnarthor
    Hicks, Arcia, Buxton, Rosario, Florimon, Sano, Berrios, Polanco, Dozier, Plouffe, etc were all allowed to play - arguably too soon. I agree that Molitor isn't a great manager and his bungling of Meyer, Arcia and Polanco (and a lesser extent Kepler and May) are the primary reasons. But Correia and Pelfrey weren't blocking anyone. We traded nearly everyone that wasn't nailed down with a handful of exceptions - Hammer being one, but again, he also didn't have much trade value. The only legit trade chip we held onto was Perkins and, unless he is traded, Dozier. We didn't keep Plouffe for a rebuilding year.
  9. gunnarthor
    What I've been suggesting is that to view Dozier's expected return in the trade is to look at offers that are comparable to Dozier, not look at returns and hope Dozier fits. That's why I've mentioned several different trades that I think show Dozier's value. We can now add the Forsythe deal to that list. Whether or not a better deal is in the future is irrelevant to what his value is now. If you're moving him because you're afraid his value and his return (two different things) will drop, you end up taking bad returns now.
  10. gunnarthor
    We should trade them now for a group of prospects that will debut at the same time.
  11. gunnarthor
    Either the next Liam Hendriks or the next Roger Clemens. Depends on who you ask.
  12. gunnarthor
    I honestly can't get my head around that line of thinking. It's basically "ignore the draft because everyone gets to draft", "ignore the trading of mediocre players because they don't matter", "ignore trading Span because Meyer didn't pan out", and just goes to "Why didn't the Twins spend money to flip vets at the deadline or why didn't the Twins spend tens of millions more on the international market".
  13. gunnarthor
    Well, they were in the playoffs at the time ...
  14. gunnarthor
    Upton was moved a second time for a package that included Max Fried who was a top 10ish pitching prospect (although he might have been injured at the time). But I think you're looking at it the wrong way. You don't usually see 8+ WAR of talent going one way in a trade. The handful of trades that did involve top 10ish pitching prosects didn't really care if they were traded for hitters or pitchers. They were traded for talent. Which is why it's more important to look at the value being traded and go from there. There are only a handful of trades in the last half-decade that I think a team traded away a (realistic) 8+ WAR value player. And those returns were very heavy. Certainly above De Leon and Stewart, for example. You should be looking at talent of Dozier's magnitude and seeing what it got back and base a return on that.
  15. gunnarthor
    Four losing seasons in a row, 5 losing seasons in six years, those are pretty typical part of the rebuild process. Chicago and Houston didn't speed out of it, they just entered it earlier. Most teams have those periods, especially if they can't spend their way out of it.
  16. gunnarthor
    I hate this idea for a few reasons - HS kids can't compete with college players, HS kids shouldn't have to be trying out for a draft spot in oct/nov when they might have to start college if they don't get drafted, these kids should get paid to it and MLB shouldn't get this added benefit for free where all these kids lives are put on hold for MLB's benefit. That said, isn't that somewhat close to what we're doing now with all these special leagues in the summer and the perfect game traveling events?
  17. gunnarthor
    Well the Dow hit 20000 today. I'm sure Trump will tweet to take credit for that.
  18. gunnarthor
    Two movies jump to mind. The first was "Before and After" which no one has seen. It's not good. But the first 20 minutes of that movie is fantastic. Liam Neeson is figuring out that his son might be involved in a murder and needs to hide things that might be evidence, the cop knows what he's doing. It's unbelievably tense. And then the movie falls off a cliff, digs a hole and falls again. But that first 20 minutes is nearly perfect, especially considering what you normally see in police procedural movies. The other one was "The Ninth Gate" with Johnny Depp. It started out cool and it takes a long time to realize you're watching a ****ty movie.
  19. gunnarthor
    This is honestly true. I have no idea what dudes are hot. A few years ago my wife and I are starting "The Tourist" with Angelina Jolie and Johnny Depp. The DVD is in but we haven't pushed play so it's showing stills from the movie and there'a picture of Jolie in a dress looking stunning and then it goes to Depp in a suit with a cigarette and I start laughing. And I tell my wife that this must be one of the biggest differences in hotness ever. You have Angelina Jolie looking perfect and all the ladies get is Johnny Depp. And she just looked at me for about three seconds and then said "are you serious?" And I was like, yeah. He's a great actor but come on. Then she hit me. We had the same problem with Jonathan Rhys Meyers. I swear that guy hit every branch of the ugly tree on his way down but my wife thinks he's incredible.
  20. gunnarthor
    Didn't Sano hit something like a 500 foot double there off the catwalk that ended up costing us the game?
  21. gunnarthor
    Yeah, the list isn't perfect but the return the Phillies got for Giles was insane. That's the return I want for Dozier. Massively off topic but have you seen the amount of talent the Astros have given up over the last few years, either in trades or simply letting them walk?
  22. gunnarthor
    So just looking at mlbpipeline list of top pitchers over the years (they divide by handiness), a few have been traded (and I certainly missed some trades) although not necessarily in the years they were ranked (that's just too much work) Shelby Miller (dumb Arizona trade), Jacob Turner, Tyler Skaggs, Andrew Heaney (Dee Gordon trade), Taijon Walker, Mark Appel (for Giles), Trevor Bauer, Giolito, Max Fried, Sean Newcomb (Simmons trade), Sean Manaea (Zorbrist trade), De Leon (Forsythe), Kopech, Lopez. I'm not sure it tells us much. Levi and Mike have made the point that top 10ish pitchers aren't often traded for hitters but that's not quite true. They aren't often traded at all. The bolded ones were traded for hitters. Most trades involved multiple pieces. There just aren't that many trades of a guy like Dozier by himself.
  23. gunnarthor
    His value might go down but the return might go up. Let's say he was worth $2 today and the Dodgers were only offering half that (which, frankly, if it was De Leon and junk sounds about right). So the Dodgers are giving us a buck. Let's say we move him at the break and his value is now only $1.50. But someone is willing to pay us 70% instead of 50%. We've made 5 cents. And that, I think, is the big problem. De Leon and junk came nowhere near Dozier's value so it was an obvious turn-down, regardless of what might or might not happen down the road.
  24. gunnarthor
    I think Gordon will start at AA. As Seth has mentioned, the FO types really like Gordon and (paraphrasing) he's not a shrinking violet. They can push him to AA.
  25. gunnarthor
    http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=ss They have Gordon #9 among shortstops, a move up from 11 at the end of last year so he's probably in their 35-45 range of prospects. "Gordon continues to be more high floor than high ceiling, a prospect who doesn't have one "wow" tool, but who can do everything relatively well. He'll continue his path toward being a solid everyday big leaguer with a move to the upper levels."
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