gunnarthor

So, I guess the logic is this. Park won't get claimed. He needs some time in AAA since we don't know what we have in him. He's unlikely to get claimed b/c there are more reliable RH power bats. Letting him start the season in AAA clears the way for Vargas to start as the DH. I suppose that all makes sense but, dang, I like Park.

Have they been average though? The four drafts that they've drafted high in have been 2012-2015. The 2012 class gave us two very highly regarded prospects in Buxton and Berrios plus 3 other ML players already. It's hard to say the 2012 draft was average. The 2013 draft has one top 100 guy on most lists (Gonsalves) and another guy who gets on some lists (Stewart), both pitchers were among the youngest pitchers in AA last year. And Mitch Garver probably makes the majors this year. It's not a slamdunk - none of these guys are in the Berrios level of pitchers but I'm not sure I'd say it's a below average draft, esp when you play the risk assessment of HS pitchers. I think you can say that the 2013 draft hasn't been as good as you hoped and still think it was better than average. The 2014 draft is probably the one you can argue the most with. That was the relief pitcher draft + Gordon. Obviously, Gordon was a fine pick and is around top 50 on most lists. I suppose if Nick Burdi turns into a legit shutdown closer, this draft could be better. And Reed could be useful. But, yeah, this draft wasn't great. And 2015 they basically had one pick. They used that on Jay, who is pretty polarizing. Their next pick didn't sign and then they drafted two guys who I really liked in Blankenhorn and Cabbage. Considering they didn't have a second round pick and the next pick didn't sign, it's probably a decent return so far but that really depends on how you view Jay. If you think he's a B+ prospect like Sickels does, it's a good, above average draft. If you're down on Jay, you are less optimistic. So, I dunno. I think you can say the 2012-2015 drafts were better than average while still being disappointed that they weren't better, depending on what your expectations were. I think they drafted three difference makers in Berrios, Buxton and Gordon. I think they got a nice piece in Gonsalves. I think the jury is still out on Stewart and Jay but guys like Burdi, Reed, Duffy, Garver can all be useful, cheap pieces. That sorta upholds Klaws view of a deep system but lacking the MVP/ace types at the moment.

So Trump is going to dismantle banking regulations. Buy big banks guys - at least until the next economic crisis the deregulation causes.

His stupidity is stunning. And very worrisome.

Yeah, I think a lot of the concern about Stewart is based on his draft position. If Gonsalves was taken in the first round and Stewart in the fourth, I suspect our feelings about that draft class would be much different. In any event, I think this is a huge year for Stewart. He either figures it out or he'll get crushed at AA. I don't see how he can survive AA with a 4k/9 ratio.

IIRC, he was in the bullpen for two reasons - first, he was the youngest pitcher and the coach didn't want to move the older pitchers into the pen. Second, he could pitch more often and was constantly used as a fireman by Illinois. http://www.news-gazette.com/sports/illini-sports/baseball/2015-04-23/tate-jay-intriguing-prospect-pro-scouts.html

Nice write up again, Seth. I hope he does well. He's young so it'll take some time but most of the scouting reports on him have been pretty fun to read.

Well, BPA is the cop out. If I'm the Twins in this draft, it's going to be pretty easy. The top of the draft is going to be full of college pitchers. Take one. At 35 and 37 maybe you can snag someone who is falling for extra money. The Twins are a little weak on position players in the upper levels but they have 5 former top 100 hitting prospects under 24 on the opening day roster. So go pitching. I'm still thinking Faedo.

Not really. There were two major holiday breaks in there so it wasn't non-stop negotiations. And it's not clear how close the negotiations ever got since the Twins were pretty desperate for another team to get involved. Considering how the FO approached this offseason, I think they desperately wanted to trade Dozier but never got anything close to what they felt he was worth. The media reported that the Dodgers weren't going to include a number of prospects and after the Forsythe trade, the Dodgers media informed everyone that the Dodgers didn't consider De Leon an elite prospect. That seems to suggest that the teams were never very close to a deal.

Well, the FO has already made that change.

I think the new FO has made some pretty important changes but they are not on the playing field. Pickler in the dugout might be able to help Molitor. Molitor is a smart baseball mind but not a good player's manager. Maybe Pickler makes him keep starting May over Duffey or keeping D. Santana on the bench, though. They put Sean Johnson in charge of the draft. They gave Goins added resources. They've indicated that they'll platoon more. On the field there really wasn't that much they could do. Outside of catcher, the offense is more or less set and they got (arguably) the best defensive catcher for this staff that they could. They need Kepler and Buxton and Rosario to play. Rosario might be a fourth outfielder but it's too early to give up on him. The rotation is a mess but there isn't much in FA to fix it. Apparently they did try to trade Dozier but couldn't find a trade they liked. They should add some bullpen pieces before ST though. The rotation is what it is. They couldn't upgrade it much so we're stuck with it. Hopefully Berrios takes a step forward and Gibson pitches more like 2014-2015 Gibson. Longterm, I don't doubt that they know it's an issue but I'm not sure what else they could do about it.

At the time, I think the only college bats that were even mentioned as a possible landing spot for the Twins was Ian Happ and maybe Newman. The draft was a bit weak on college bats. Twins weren't linked to Benintendi much (although we obviously don't know all their draft thoughts). It was mostly pitchers - Fullmer, Buehler, Whitley and Allard or HS bats like Cameron and Stephenson.

Yeah, my guess is they are in the 75 win range this season. How the youngsters play will have a lot of impact on how the 2018 season projects. I do want to see some improvement in the bullpen though. Right now, Pressly is basically the only arm in there I actually like.

Dodgers never agreed to trade Alvarez. Pretty much every reliable source has said as much. Twins should have asked for him, of course, which is what Morosi suggests. TD doesn't let us discuss Dave's source.

The Jay pick was a huge gamble upside pick!

He's certainly not scouting stat lines. From the mlb write up on Miranda last year "Johnson also praised Miranda for his defense skills, but noted he's not known for his speed, as he projects to be more of a power-hitting third baseman. "He's not the greatest athlete and not a huge runner, but he can pick it," Johnson said. "We have him compared to a Mike Lowell-type. He's a really good defender with a good swing. He's a good-sized kid. He has a chance to have power for sure."" Sounds like he's filled out his frame a bit since turning 18. Another reason I liked last years draft was we drafted a number of very young players.

I hadn't realized Steve Adams and Heyman were "our media." But, again, whatever. We all agree that the Dodgers didn't offer enough for Dozier.

Here's the tweet Honestly, I'm not sure how that suggests anything we didn't already know. The Twins asked for the #33, #49 and #82 prospects at one point. It's probably an early ask but if you want to think it was our last demand, I suppose you can. I agree with the other poster that it was probably an early ask to help set the price that the Twins had in mind. And, as I've stated before, that price is probably two top 100 guys plus two more prospects. Three top 100 and no lottery tickets isn't too far above what I think the Twins thought his fair value was. Considering what the Dodgers paid for Forsythe, it's probably pretty clear that the Dodgers had a much smaller view of Dozier's value. I'm also not sure why you seem to think that the MPLS media is reporting falsely but one Morosi tweet is credible reporting. Especially when it's just a tweet and probably what Morosi was told from someone in the Dodgers' organization. But I suppose it helps your narrative to think so ...

Thanks for that. Is Juan Miranda actually Jose Miranda, the shortstop we took last year in round 2?

Would you trade that pick for Andrew Miller? I suspect many would. I agree with you in the abstract. I want Jay to be a starter, not a reliever. But if he makes the majors as a reliever, he wouldn't be a bust, IMHO. And, at the time we selected him, I wanted Daz Cameron, so what do I know. The Jay pick was a good one at the time and he'll likely make the majors (barring an injury of course).

What spin? All credible reports have indicated that the Dodgers never included Alvarez (among others). Heyman reported that the Dodgers were being "stingy." Twin City scribes suggested a 1:1 deal or a 1:1 deal in essence (meaning the other pieces weren't highly valued). Most media characterized the Dodgers' offer as De Leon or De Leon and junk. Considering what they paid for Forsythe, that seems accurate. I suspect the Dodgers have moved on. If they wanted to control the press they would have done it before they acquired Forsythe - esp if Alvarez was offered. Leaking the Alvarez thing to only Dave on Twins Daily was probably not the best idea they've had.

OK, first, Jay was the #6 pick, not #5. That's bugging me. But frankly, if Jay is only a reliever for the Twins but is a healthy reliever for six years, he probably is one of the better #6 picks in the last twenty years. The reality is that most don't make it either through injury or poor play. Here's a list of the recent #6 selections - Alex Jackson (bust track), Colin Moran, Albert Almora, Rendon, (all three made the majors although Rendon's been busted up a lot, Moran doesn't seem anything more than a regular at best), Barret Loux, Zack Wheeler (1.8 WAR in 52 games, hurt arm), Kyle Skipworth (4 games), Ross Detwiler, Andrew Miller (converted starter into bullpen super weapon), Ricky Romero (third best WAR of this group), Jeremy Sowers, Ryan Harvey and then Greinke in 2002. If Jay is a bullpen arm, I think we can label it a disappointing pick but certainly not a bust. And if he's a dominating bullpen arm like Miller, maybe some of that disappoint me rubs away. If he's Terry Leach, maybe a bit more disappointment. Making the majors is hard. Really, really hard. A good draft might be two players.

I'm not sure how we're getting crossed up but we clearly are. Twins: Hey, we want Deleon, Alvarez and Calhoun. Dodgers: Great. We'll give you De Leon. Twins: (counter offer) OK, just give us two of De Leon, Alvarez and Calhoun. Dodgers: No. But we'll give you De Leon + "something." And neither side agreed. For the Twins, that meant they turned down a best deal of De Leon + something that wasn't Calhoun or Alvarez. Some, including me, have characterized that as junk. Nothing Morosi tweeted really changes that. The Twins (probably early on) asked for a very high return while the Dodgers weren't set on giving up any elite prospects. And that would correspond to much of the national reporting that said that the Dodgers weren't going to offer Alvarez.

Personally, I'm in the camp that thinks Brad Steil and the development staff have done a very good job since taking over in 2012. Since then, we've seen players pushed up levels much faster than before and we've seen players break out that you wouldn't really expect. Berrios was a supp pick, Kepler and Polanco broke out after 2012 and both were very modest international signees, Gonsalves was a 4th rounder, the 2012 draft has already given us 5 guys to make the majors. So I think we're doing a good job of pushing talent. The bigger issue - which I think is on the ML staff and not the development guys - is the stumbling of a lot of that talent once they make the majors.

It's also important to remember to take these rankings as just one piece. There are a lot of rankings out there. I like mlbpipeline the best but it's worth noting that Klaw had 5 Twins in his top 100, Sickels likely does too (he gave 5 Twins B+ grades). While fangraphs only gave one Twin a future 55 value, I'm not sure their top 100 list won't have 50 FV guys on it which would open the door for a few Twins. More importantly, we can see if there are any broad consensus on our guys. The write-ups on Jay, for example, all tend to say more or less the same thing - good stuff, might not be a starter.