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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    Well, if Gordon's the only Twins in the 41-60 range I would imagine that Klaw doesn't have Jay in his top 100. So that's five Twins, if I counted right (Kiriloff, Gonsalves, Stewart, Gordon and Romero). Aside from Jay, is there someone else that could sneak into a top 40 in the low minors?
  2. gunnarthor
    Well, I suspect that Klaw isn't scouting the stat lines and sees something - either directly or from scouts he trusts - that suggests a possible positive outcome.
  3. gunnarthor
    Yep.
  4. gunnarthor
    Well, in fairness, I didn't do a comprehensive search. I think Cespedes, Upton and Casey Blake would qualify but the reason you don't see a lot of similar trades is that teams very rarely trade two years and roughly 8 WAR by itself, at least in one player. So other trades have more than one player just to reach that return value.
  5. gunnarthor
    Well, considering they had a 1:1 swap available I think it's very unlikely you could have found a way to make it happen. And if you think, as others, that Forsythe isn't that much less valuable than Dozier, then thee Dodgers sure weren't going to offer more either.
  6. gunnarthor
    Berrios is the better prospect - he's about 2 years younger and was more highly regarded by prospect guys. As you mention, he was more durable in the minors. De Leon is taller so probably doesn't hear the downward plane issue as much. But they are fairly close.
  7. gunnarthor
    According to fangraphs, Forsythe's walk rate went down slightly (1%) and his strike outs went up more (4%, closer to his career norms). His babip was about the same. And he played in fewer games. I dunno, I think last year is probably more indicative of what you should expect from him. If I'm the Dodgers I'd rather have Dozier but I probably wouldn't pay the Twins price for Dozier if I can get Forsythe for De Leon.
  8. gunnarthor
    Keep in mind, dominating any level of baseball over a small sample size isn't that unusual. He threw 86 innings in AAA. Tyler Duffey threw 55 dominating innings at the ML level. There are legit concerns about how his stuff will play at the ML level. I'm not trying to knock the guy, he's a good pitching prospect and I wish the Twins had him but not at the expense of Dozier.
  9. gunnarthor
    I thought it was clear we were talking about prospects - a prospect that profiles as a future 3/4 is a lot different than a ML pitcher that is a 3/4. Sorry for the confusion, I could have been more articulate.
  10. gunnarthor
    Beats me. We're just working off what we know. Pre-2016 doesn't include his sparkling numbers in AAA or his less than sparkling numbers in the majors. It also doesn't include his missed time for injuries. (Which was the major red flag for me). My feeling is that De Leon's stats are ahead of his stuff and he's more likely a backend starter who, in his beset years, can play above that but will have injury concerns. I would be his career looks a lot more like a guy like Jaime Garcia than Gio Gonzalez.
  11. gunnarthor
    Well, if I can trade Dozier next year and get the same deal, why give up the extra year of value? And the issue isn't that I can get 6 years of a #3. If I knew that De Leon would give me 6 years, roughly 1000ip and 11 WAR or so, I'd take that. The problem is that we aren't trading for 6 years of #3 pitching. We're trading for a pitcher whose ceiling is a #3 pitcher but still has very significant risk of missing that ceiling either due to lower performance, injuries or general lack of durability that makes him a bullpen piece instead. So that's why I was opposed to a 1:1 swap. And if Nunez can get me a BA backend 100 type, so can Dozier.
  12. gunnarthor
    I don't think trading away Dozier for less than how you value him is a good idea. The Twins offense is going to take a big hit if they trade him. If you think De Leon is a #3/4 type, maybe it's better to roll the dice on a ****ty FA pitcher and keep Dozier. I suspect the Twins can trade Dozier later and get something akin to the #70 baseball prospect.
  13. gunnarthor
    Thanks. It's not about the money, it's a longterm grudge I have against ESPN that is completely irrational but firm. Plus, if I had insider, I'd get even less work done.
  14. gunnarthor
    From a baseball fan, not necessarily a Twins fan, it would be really interesting if the Giants were to now get involved and acquire Dozier. Dozier would be the most hated (position) player in a pretty good rivalry. (And the Giants top of the batting order would be Span, Nunez, Dozier). Not sure how much interest SF would actually have since they have Panik but from a narrative perspective, it's great.
  15. gunnarthor
    Can someone give an outline of his impressions of Romero? And what Dodger prospects have been ranked so far?
  16. gunnarthor
    Out of curiosity, which Dodger prospects does Klaw have in the 60-100 range?
  17. gunnarthor
    De Leon seems to be a bit of a polarizing prospect. Sickels is the high man on him but mlbpipeline probably still has him in the 30-40 range. Fangraphs and Klaw seem lower on him. So it's probably worth thinking that the Twins and Dodgers may have had very different valuations of De Leon as a centerpiece. If the Twins thought he was in the 75 range - somewhere close to Gonsalves - it makes a lot of sense to expect a better package.
  18. gunnarthor
    Every team that has rebuilt has traded vets for prospects. EVERY SINGLE ONE. Including the Twins. That doesn't mean those teams traded EVERY SINGLE Veteran. Twins have traded off Morneau, Doumit, Slowey, Liriano, Span, Revere, Nunez, Herrman, Buetera etc. What vets have the Twins just let walk away for nothing? Plouffe, Suzuki, Pelfrey etc. Twins have had (arguably) three strong trade chips since 2012 - Dozier, Span and Perkins. They traded Span in a 1:1 for a top RH pitching prospect that failed. They kept Perkins and they have two years to move Dozier. Clearly they tried to move Dozier but didn't get a good offer.
  19. gunnarthor
    According to Deadspin, if he was drunk his family - he has a mom and a daughter - might not get any of his money if he was legally drunk at the time of the accident. That would cost them 20 million. Considering how much poverty he faced growing up and how much is in the DR, I really hope the Royals do right do his daughter, even if he was drunk. http://deadspin.com/report-the-fate-of-yordano-venturas-20-million-depend-1791555319
  20. gunnarthor
    If we add junky prequels to this list, we have the bad 2011 Thing remake (which was almost great and turned out to be really bad) and Prometheus. The only good thing that came out of Prometheus was this. But there have been some pretty solid remakes the last few years - 3:10 to Yuma, True Grit and the American version of Let the Right One In.
  21. gunnarthor
    Yeah, there really isn't any reason to doubt Steve Adams characterization of the Dodgers offer to the Twins as De Leon "and junk."
  22. gunnarthor
    I wouldn't think so. I don't think anyone says De Leon doesn't have the stuff to be a ML quality pitcher - some think ace, others a #3 or 4 but all say he has the stuff. The issue is durability and health and I don't think the Rays have any magic bullet for that. They are betting on him being healthy.
  23. gunnarthor
    I don't think there's anything in there that's too far off. I think the article points out a few of the concerns we all had for De Leon fairly well and in a neutral way. Dozier is the better player but if you can get Forsythe for just De Leon, why pay more?
  24. gunnarthor
    He had Stewart, Gonsalves and Kiriloff in his 81-100 range. Gordon and Jay will probably be higher.
  25. gunnarthor
    Off topic, but why is there never spaces behind my sentences? It's really annoying.
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