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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    And mlbpipeline has their second mock up. Twins take McKay http://m.mlb.com/news/article/227685110/brendan-mckay-to-twins-in-first-mock-draft/?topicid=151437456
  2. gunnarthor
    I don't like WAR but I use it a lot for shorthand. My main problem with it is how people - like me - use it without understanding it's margin of error. According to Sean Foreman a 3 WAR catcher and a 1.5 WAR LF might be equal or the LF might even be more valuable. But we fans constantly say that player A with a .3 WAR advantage is the superior player. Hell, we said it in this thread. WAR is not nearly that concise.
  3. gunnarthor
    minor league ball write up on Griffin Canning from UCLA. http://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/5/1/15494602/2017-mlb-draft-griffin-canning-rhp-ucla They project him as a middle/late first round draft pick. mlbpipeline has him #17. He's a fairly polished RH pitcher who is a little short (Berrios!) but with a good fastball. Probably a true 3/4 type. And he probably goes before the Twins pick again at 35 but Dakota Hudson dropped last year and Walker Buehler dropped the year before. With all the exciting HS arms with "upside!" a college arm like Canning might slip a bit. I think he'd be pretty good value at 35 but he might end up the next Pierce Johnson, too.
  4. gunnarthor
    https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2017/05/01/orioles-adam-jones-berated-racist-taunts-fenway-park-peanuts/101187172/ From the article "Baltimore Orioles All-Star center fielder Adam Jones was berated by racist taunts at Fenway Park while a bag of peanuts was thrown at him Monday night, calling it one of the worst cases of fan abuse he has heard in his career. “A disrespectful fan threw a bag of peanuts at me,’’ Jones said, “I was called the N-word a handful of times tonight. Thanks. Pretty awesome.’’" Somewhere between 30 and 60 fans were ejected from the game.
  5. gunnarthor
    The AL Central has represented the AL in the WS for three straight years so I think we should probably wait a bit before claiming it's mediocre.
  6. gunnarthor
    From a Posnanski piece. "Here is Bill James on Wins Above Replacement, perhaps the hottest advanced statistic in the game right now: “Well, my math skills are limited and my data-processing skills are essentially nonexistent. The younger guys are way, way beyond me in those areas. I’m fine with that, and I don’t struggle against it, and I hope that I don’t deny them credit for what they can do that I can’t. “But because that is true, I ASSUMED that these were complex, nuanced, sophisticated systems. I never really looked; I just assumed that the details were out of my depth. But sometime in the last year I was doing some research that relied on these WAR systems, so I took a look at them, and … they’re not very impressive. They’re not well thought through; they haven’t made a convincing effort to address many of the inherent difficulties that the undertaking presents. They tend to get so far into the data, throw up their arms and make a wild guess. I don’t know if I’m going to get the time to do better of it, or if it will be left to others, but … we’re not at anything like an end point here. I assumed that these systems were a lot better than they actually are.”" http://sportsworld.nbcsports.com/bill-james-statistical-revolution/ And I can't find the link but Posnanski also mentioned that a ML team (maybe Oakland?) internal measuring systems had Cabrera ahead of Trout the year Cabrera won the MVP but the internet blew up over Trout's snub. As fans we greatly overrate WAR in both its measurements as well as its margin of error. http://joeposnanski.com/a-bit-more-on-war/
  7. gunnarthor
    Nico Goodrum is 25 years old and hitting .235/.284/.426. I'm not sure he's the UI of the future.
  8. gunnarthor
    He's probably top 10. He's hitting .296/.379/.581 13hr, 22bb 52k in a pretty good conference. The swing and miss is still a concern but there's a lot to like. He's certainly not in the running for 1/1 but #6 overall doesn't seem too off. (To me, non-professional).
  9. gunnarthor
    Polanco's defense at short has been a lot better than I would have expected, Grossman has been the professional hitter that we wanted Mauer to be, Kepler's line .280/.370/.470 130+ OPS+, I think, is something he can be close to all year. Rosario has been pretty hot lately, too. He's never going to be a high walk guy which means he'll always have ups and downs but when he's hot, he's really fun to watch.
  10. gunnarthor
    How the hell does a grown up say something that stupid? We couldn't work it out? Jackson, a slave owner, as the problem solver? The only way Jackson solves the civil war is to make slavery legal through out the land. Is that what Trump wanted?
  11. gunnarthor
    It also sounds like Seth Romero from Houston is going to drop in the draft due to attitude/makeup concerns. He was suspended from his team and scouts have concerns over his body type but, after McKay, he's the best college lefty in the draft and pipeline has him #20 overall. "Romero's indifferent approach to conditioning led to him going undrafted out of high school and getting suspended for a couple of weeks at the start of his sophomore season. Scouts were impressed at how much better he looked physically this year, but makeup concerns have dogged him for a while. Some clubs have said they wouldn't touch him in the first round, though he'll still be Houston's highest pick since Brad Lincoln went fourth overall in 2006."
  12. gunnarthor
    7.1ip, 4er, 3h, 2bb, 6k. Had a no-no going through six innings. Struggled when they sent him out in the 8th and the bullpen let all his runners score.
  13. gunnarthor
    Good for him. This sounds like something he should be good at and he always struck me as a nice person.
  14. gunnarthor
    Sano has two big problems for MVP - 1) Twins overall record and 2) how voters use WAR. Now, the Twins might end up being better than everyone thinks and their record helps Sano. That would be awesome. On WAR, a lot of people pay lip service to its problems but then go ape**** when the voting doesn't follow it. So I'm not sure how he can get over that barrier.
  15. gunnarthor
    Yeah, that's the big problem. My guess is that the Twins will probably get a tier of players - probably Greene, McKay and Wright - who they think are the best and then take the one who will sign for the least. Even though the #1 pick isn't worth as much, it's also important to remember that the largest bonuses since the slotting system was put into place is somewhere around 6.5m, I believe. Even in this draft, 6.5 is top 3 money and would save the Twins 1.2m. If you took that savings to the the #35 pick, you could offer him top 20 money (and potentially more if you save at other picks).
  16. gunnarthor
    Rooker is #49 on mlbpipelines updated list so the Twins could certainly nab him at 35 or 37. Of course, he's a college senior so he has very little bargaining power so some team might reach for him to save money later but that seems sorta unlikely.
  17. gunnarthor
    I'm not saying no but ... what if Smith, who should get drafted around 8-10 and expect 4.5m is willing to sign for 5m. That saves the Twins 2.7m. Then the Twins talk to Faedo or Carlson or Burger's advisor and tell him they'll give him top 10 money - 4.5m - if they drop to 35. All three of those guys are in the 11-16 range. Would Faedo and Smith be a better draft than Greene and slot at 35? I'm not sure.
  18. gunnarthor
    First, I figured a new thread b/c the old one is getting a bit long. Jonathan Mayo at mlbpipeline has a nice rundown of the 7 players he thinks the Twins are considering for the 1/1 pick. http://m.mlb.com/news/article/227234290/breakdown-of-no-1-candidates-in-mlb-draft/?topicid=151437456 I'm not sure how accurate this is but Baz and Gore seem less likely, to me, than a college arm not considered like Faedo.
  19. gunnarthor
    Well, certainly some of the swings the batters took were on pitches that were balls and ML hitters probably don't make those swings. I do think Berrios will have some trouble again because he'll have to throw real strikes but that lineup did have a few MLers in it. He'll be fine but he'll struggle until he can throw stuff in the zone where he wants it. But I'd love to see Castro work with him.
  20. gunnarthor
    Berrios has now made 35 starts at AAA, 223ip, 2.54 era, 10 k/9, 2.5 bb/9. And he was extremely young for his age. He's made 14 ML starts. Bring him up and don't think about sending him down until he has 35 ML starts under his belt.
  21. gunnarthor
    Really encouraging start by Romero. Great to see that.
  22. gunnarthor
    Dude, the cement dried.
  23. gunnarthor
    http://m.mlb.com/news/article/226895582/2017-mlb-draft-headlined-by-greene-mckay/ Callis says Greene, Wright and McKay have separated themselves with McKay a slight favorite to go to the Twins. "The No. 1 pick for me is McKay, hands down, as a first baseman," a second AL scouting director said. "That bat is special. For me, it's a $200 million bat on the free-agent market. His hittability is high, the power will continue to improve and he's a really good first baseman."
  24. gunnarthor
    Longtime MLB writer Jayson Stark was among the many fired by ESPN. Bummer, I liked Stark.
  25. gunnarthor
    http://money.cnn.com/2017/04/25/news/economy/mexico-us-wto-tuna/index.html So we are pissing off Canada and Mexico now. "Trump's administration took its first steps to crack down on trade with Canada on Monday night when the Commerce Department announced a 20% tariff against Canadian softwood lumber. A war of words between Canadian and American leaders has followed. Trump's decision to go after Canada first with tariffs was particularly surprising given his harsh criticism of Mexico on the campaign trail. Now Trump has upset Canada and suffered a trade defeat from Mexico."
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