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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    Is Klaw a stat guy or a scout? I would imagine that both groups will look at a persons build to make attempts to predict future production. It would be absurd if they didn't.
  2. gunnarthor
    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/09/al-central-notes-gibson-santana-kipnis-abreu-merrifield.html I thought Gibson was going to be gone by next year but he's come back strong and it sounds like he's probably saved himself a job. I think he's probably set to get around 4m or so next year.
  3. gunnarthor
    Really fun win. Won't miss Molly though. Rosario should be swinging right now. He's just too hot to bunt.
  4. gunnarthor
    Not sure that's true.
  5. gunnarthor
    That's a real good point and one the prospect gurus make all the time. Most of the time, the prospects are in tiers. Usually, the top tier is only a handful but there can be some exceptions (the 2015 top tier probably went 15 deep, that was an insanely good prospect group). But as we go down, the tiers get bigger and the difference between ranked and unranked is a lot smaller, if anything.
  6. gunnarthor
    Sickels wrote a bit about him a few years ago. https://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/10/6/6922083/a-sleeper-who-woke-up-corey-kluber-rhp-cleveland-indians Not mentioned by Sickels but Kluber had solid k-numbers in the minors but not video game numbers and was old for his level. At 24, he was still in AA and not dominating. And he's apparently added several mph to his fastball. As a prospect, his fastball was modest - 88-92. Now he's averaging over 92 and can touch upper 90s.
  7. gunnarthor
    True, but Viola (8 WAR) and Blyleven (4.5 WAR) were legit good and they had three position players - Puck, Hrbek and Gagne - around 4 WAR as well. They were 45-28 when those two pitched so the team was kind of made for short series when they could stack up the pitching. Santana and Berrios aren't there yet.
  8. gunnarthor
    There were some interesting comments. One point is that relief pitchers tend to be ignored by propsect rankings but bullpens are becoming increasingly important as starters go less innings. So maybe a lot of those unranked WAR is going to start coming from bullpens? Twins are obviously trying to build a big bullpen out of drafted guys but only Jay and Burdi have been ranked. Guys like Duffey, Hildy, Rogers, Curtiss, etc are going to probably pitch important innings for us. Maybe a few of them can turn into another Rincon or Perkins.
  9. gunnarthor
    On the other hand, that's what a fifth starter is. 30 teams, 5 starters, minimum, Kyle is probably in the 80-100 range of all starters this year. I just looked at fangraphs pitching leaders for starters, min 30 innings, and Gibson in #96 on the list by fWAR and #92 by xfip. Others in that area include Matt Moore, Cole Hamels (he's having a bad year), JC Ramirez, Ryu, Wade Miley by fWAR and Jordan Montgomery, Jose Berrios and Kevin Gausman by xfip. Sure, you'd like to have five starters who all are better than that but it's not normal, especially for lower payroll markets.
  10. gunnarthor
    Eddie is becoming one of my favorite players to watch. He's fun. He hits. He's done a terrific job in cutting down the strike outs and increasing walks. Teams have to throw him more strikes and he's really understanding what they teams are going to do.
  11. gunnarthor
    Not sure if this goes here or in a different forum but it's a good reminder that teams get a lot of productivity from guys who were never big prospects. The article mentions Dozier but a lot of the Twins big successes in the 2000s were because of big performances from unranked prospects (Koskie, Dougie Baseball, AJ, Lohse, Radke, Johan, Nathan, etc). Right now the Twins are pretty dependent on former top 100 prospects (Escobar and Dozier are the only hitters in our top 10 PA this season who weren't top 100 prospects at some point). http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-year-in-successful-non-prospects/
  12. gunnarthor
    I believe they play a game 163. Didn't that happen just a few years ago?
  13. gunnarthor
    Remember when the Astros were world beaters? And then it was the Dodgers? Now Cleveland. They're all going to look so silly when the Twins win the World Series.
  14. gunnarthor
    Is there a theory as to why there's a big difference this year? Random variance? Bad defense?
  15. gunnarthor
    Someone explain why b-r WAR and fWAR on Archer are this different? bWAR, the one I prefer, has him at 1.3 while fWAR has 4.3. That's a pretty big difference. I know they use different metrics to measure pitchers but that seems like a pretty big variance.
  16. gunnarthor
    Agreed. The minor league stuff on TD is easily the best stuff here. Incredible work and also good job on draft prep, as well.
  17. gunnarthor
    Well, Bonds will hold the record but it always comes with an * of its own. Stanton's run is a lot more joyful to watch, if nothing else.
  18. gunnarthor
    My guess is that the FO wants Pickler to take over so I imagine he'd keep several of the same coaches on staff.
  19. gunnarthor
    NIce write up. It sure is fun to be playing meaningful games in September.
  20. gunnarthor
    I won't miss Molitor at all. Besides the bunting, he doesn't stand up for his players so we've seen guys end up ejected after they complain to the umps. Last year he was yanking young guys in and out all the time. I suspect Pickler in the dugout has stopped some of that this year.
  21. gunnarthor
    Who wants Rosario? A team trading for him would probably be a team in or near contention because Rosario isn't an elite player, just a good one. So a rebuilding team like the Phillies (for instance) wouldn't want him. But a rebuilding team like the Phillies might want to make a deal for guys with more years of control - Gordon, Gonsalves, Romero, Granite, Wade etc. On the other hand, since the second wildcard, a lot of teams can probably think of themselves "at or near contention." Atlanta has a crap ton of exciting young talent and prospects. Would they want to replace Kemp and Markakis with uberprospect Acuna and Rosario to go with Inciarte in center? (Man, Atlanta ain't far away). Rosario's control time would certainly be in their upcoming window.
  22. gunnarthor
    I believe I read that in an interview with Lavine. I think the Twins will trade someone this offseason but I'm not sure who. I can see arguments for moving any of Dozier/Rosario/Kepler/Gordon/Wade/Granite.
  23. gunnarthor
    Honestly, isn't that why they hired a President of Baseball Ops and a GM? Because running the baseball side solely as GM was just too much? I mean, I don't think the GM should have to have a huge say in who they pick in the 4th round or who they give 250k signing bonus too. That should be delegated to others, no? Should the GM say "we need to find a reliever who will sign for 1-2m/yr who might be able to handle 40 innings of mop up duty" and have guys give him some suggestions/names to target? Or should the GM just find that guy by himself?
  24. gunnarthor
    Nicely said. Having read both individuals work for a number of years, I would side with Souhan over Gleeman every time. Gleeman often purposefully mis-characterizes other writers work to then attack it (read his Mauer/Souhan/concussion ****). He seems like a sad guy.
  25. gunnarthor
    Beats me, I always mentioned Hoyer but YMMV, as others say. But, as Bird notes, this stupid threads always devolve into this sort of ****. Ryan, Smith, Lavine, Anthony and Falvey have all done some good things that we don't recognize and made mistakes, as well. I liked Ryan quite a bit because he kept the window open longer than other GMs for a small market team and our current down swing was, more or less, part of the natural cycle of baseball economics. We'll see how the new team does.
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