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ShouldaCouldaWoulda

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Everything posted by ShouldaCouldaWoulda

  1. ShouldaCouldaWoulda
    I agree to some degree. Projections are nice and fun for that very reason...."lets see." However, you do not get low projections without reason...there ARE reasons for them. Those are the projections that their past play has earned them. I do think we will outperform some projections, but without a doubt underperform in some of them. I don't think this is a great team, but we only have to be better than the other four teams in our division to make the playoffs. KC might be returning champs, but I honestly don't see them as anything special this upcoming season, but they might be.
  2. ShouldaCouldaWoulda
    Okay, I was just actually curious now to what early projections had us at positionally and as a team, so I did a quick dirty search. This is what I found, and yes, I know this doesn't mean everything or mean that its how it will all shake out. But, it does give us an idea and perspective of where we REALLY might be positionally compared to others. When we think we are solid, it isn't really necucisarlily the case...we just might not be awful. It is only one projection keep in mind, but just using it as a talking point of reference. Also, there are still many national writers who still think the Twins very much overachieved, and are predicted to not do all that well this year. Again, their opinions do not count for all that much, but when you take it all together we do not look all that special. As a fan, I still believe we can just somehow "find a way to win" again without being special in certain areas, but that is banking on a lot of luck and mojo. The positional individual ranks by WAR (No, I don't consider WAR as perfect): Catcher: JR Murphy #30 (#6 and worst projected starting catcher in the division, with one backup catcher projected to outperform him) 1B: Joe Mauer #24 (#5 and worst projected starting 1B in the division) 2B: Brian Dozier #10 ( 3rd best starter in the division, of 5, so middle) SS: Eduardo Escobar #37 (worst projected starter in division) 3B: Trevor Plouffe #25 (3rd best projected starter in the division, middle) LF: Eddie Rosario #34 (Worst projected LF in the division) CF: Brian Buxton #25 (3rd best in the division, middle) RF: Eddie Rosario #35 (2nd in the Division, top half) DH: Sano #1 We are worst in division at 4 positions, and 3 or worst 6 positions, not including pitching. I know that Sano is moving to OF, Rosario can only play 1 spot, and that we have a new DH, but just going with the first player listed. Pitcher: Kyle Gibson #75 was our best pitcher projected (11th best pitcher projected in division, but our best) We might THINK we are "good" at certain positions, but in comparison, not so much. Dozier, Rosario, Escobar, and Plouffe are NOT the golden boy greats we think they are when compared to other starters in the league, or even the division.
  3. ShouldaCouldaWoulda
    Yes and no. Depends on where we think we ARE and where we think we are GOING. You cannot simply look at if we have "decent" guys at a position, or if we have "improved" at a position. You have to look at how our guys are while comparing to the rest of the league currently, and future/youth/prospects. At some positions we improved offensively and or defensively last year, and are perceived to do so this year again. However, it MIGHT NOT be the case this year, nor is necessarily good enough. It would be interesting to see someone do a projected positional and pitching ranking via WAR, other metric, or pure opinions for current upcoming season, and for 2-4 years from now. How would we come out? Looking at that would help get a better picture of where we are and what we need to address for the future. We might be improved in areas, but maybe not to where we need to be in some areas, and not even close in others. Although, of course we are likely solid and multiple positions, but how many will we be top 1/4 at positionally, or even top 1/3?
  4. ShouldaCouldaWoulda
    Beresford does not appear offer much in the terms of potential, nor is he all that great. I would not have him blocking anyone at all. If he needs to be turned into a utility role or flipped, then so be it. Not saying Micheal is all that amazing, but he seems to be be turning thins around and does have more potential.
  5. ShouldaCouldaWoulda
    I am hoping that he has #2 lineup potential, where he can hit 12-15 HR's, but would be pleased with a leadoff hitter who gets on at a .350 OBP and steals 20+ basses.
  6. ShouldaCouldaWoulda
    I really like Thorpe, but I think we will be saying this all about him in 2 years, not next year. I am guessing that they will be cautious with him, and that it might take a while for him to get back on track. But, I agree that this kid has unreal talent and potential to be a beast. Much more than the pitchers listed in this original post.
  7. ShouldaCouldaWoulda
    I agree.
  8. ShouldaCouldaWoulda
    I am just excited about Buddy Boshers. Just reminds me of the days having funs saying Boof Bonser.
  9. ShouldaCouldaWoulda
    It seems to me that ABW would benefit from incorporating a more athletic stance too. I believe he is not really utilizing the bat speed that he could by the way he is standing so upright. Players built like him seem to benefit from a more lower/wider/bent stance. Just my thoughts.
  10. ShouldaCouldaWoulda
    Didn't realize that Buxton still qualified as a rookie. That should help garner some positive attention next year. If he starts the year in the big leagues I think he has a good shot at the award, if he plays elite defense only though.
  11. ShouldaCouldaWoulda
    Speaking of BABIP, what about Rosario then? Where will his BABIP be, and what will his numbers look like if they land south of a .296 BABIP? I was hoping that Hicks would would take turns platooning with Rosario and Arcia, letsing him hit vs RHP every so often to balance out the AB's a bit, depending on who was responding well and who wasn't. Twins seem like they have never been too forward thinking in taking advantage of platoon splits, but more stubborn in their thinking of same guys and same lineups vs any pitcher of any handedness.
  12. ShouldaCouldaWoulda
    Like from watching Mauer?
  13. ShouldaCouldaWoulda
  14. ShouldaCouldaWoulda
    The biggest concern I have with the possibility of Sano in the OF would be the greater chance of injury. One thought I have not seen mentioned in Plouffe trade attempts is to Atlanta, since they are now converting Olivera to the OF there. Not sure what type of packages would/could be sent both ways in this case, but at least it seems like a reasonable trade partner in need of a 3B. If you look around the league, there are not many teams with a need at the position, and most have good young options currently. Who is our backup 3b next year, if Sano starts there and Escobar starts at SS? *On a side note, how is Dozier's arm, and would he even possibly fit as a potential 3B? I am not looking for answers if the Twins would play him there, as they seem to behind the curve in creating positional flexibility and maximizing rosters with position movement, but just want to know if he'd even profile there.
  15. ShouldaCouldaWoulda
    I hear you! It is kind of an insult saying he's a good "innings eater." One should not take that as a compliment, but as someone who is "replacement level" and temporary, until a good option comes along. I understand where it is nice to have a guy who can go deep into games, but going 6-8 innings each game, while giving up 3-5 runs more often than not is not a good thing. I just "feel" like the Twins would love to have them some gritty Alfredo Simon, Tom Koehler, Rubby De la Rossa, Wade Miley, Colon, Colby Lewis, and Jeff Samsdfasfjdioo;jia on their staff this year. All above 4era's and above 185 innings. But, if the Twins DO go out and sign a pitcher this year...it HAS to be Mike Leake! He is way too Twins-like NOT to have on our team. Just a guy who throws a ball, can approach 200 innings, puts a magnet on the baseball before he throws it, and outperforms his peripherals, and would be coming over from the easier league. Welcome aboard new team ace Leake! Just kidding, but I would not be one bit surprised at it, nor would I be surprised at people loving the signing here. They like the Eddie George's and Leroy Hoard's of pitchers, "Need 1 yard? I will give you 3, need 5 yards? I will give you 3".....for 300 plus carries of mediocrity.
  16. ShouldaCouldaWoulda
    Yeah, I don't remember anything ever being done on it at any of the SABR-sites, so was just curious if I was missing something.
  17. ShouldaCouldaWoulda
    I was very excited and optimistic about the Nolasco signing, and Hughes. No seriously, I was pumped about buying low on Nolasco. Not afraid to look like an idiot.
  18. ShouldaCouldaWoulda
    Anyone know of any work out there that has discussed or studied whether or not certain "types" of international prospects have a higher success rates than others? For instance, Cuban Sluggers in their 20's I am guessing have a higher success rate of translating well to U.S. professional success. But, what about 16 year old slick fielders that are wiry and guessing on future weight/builds vs. 16 year bigger kids that are all bat, but position is uncertain? Seems like their a lot of middle infielders in the pros, but then again, there is likely more international kids singed as SS's too than other positions. Just curious if there is some correlation research done of the MLB international players, and to what their prospect report said about them when they originally signed. Would be interesting to see if there is any common denominators that pops out, and what things were NOT said about them? Any guesses, or anyone up for this challenge?
  19. ShouldaCouldaWoulda
    That seems seems like an awfully long time to keep him down in the minors next year, IF he is hitting and healthy, and or, if we are having struggles in the OF in the majors. I DO think it would be wise to let him start the season, so that we can play Hicks, Rosario, and Arcia to start the year. We need to see if any of those guys have improved or regressed. Everyone one of them has at least one major offensive flaw that could drag them down next year. Hicks can't hit 70% of SP's, Rosario is allergic to walking, and Arcia is an enigma at this point. The could all come out an mash, or they could all succumb to their negative flaws.
  20. ShouldaCouldaWoulda
    If Buxton is in AAA, how long do they need to keep him down in order to achieve any service time saving?
  21. ShouldaCouldaWoulda
    I agree that we will likely be a better team next year, but that might not equate to even as good of a record as this year. Luck doesn't usually follow you year to year.
  22. ShouldaCouldaWoulda
    I am a big fan of Rosario's tools/athleticism; because of that, he will always have the potential to have good seasons in the field and at the plate. However, I do not see any reason to believe that he will just naturally become a more patient hitter. That is not something that just comes with age or progression. Low minors bb% have been proven to not correlate with upper level minors or MLB bb%'s, so there isn't much support for him getting better in this department. I think he has had an overall good season, not great. We might overvalue him because he is young and and a Twin. He is probably under appreciated to the rest of the league, but he's probably not as good as we like to think he is. He is NOT Santana, but he sure has some scary similarities to him. Like I mentioned, I don't think the bb's will just come, but one can hope. I do think he will remain a useful player that is above average. But, I do think his profile puts him as the type of player that could have a horrendous or really good season at any time due to his horrible approach, yet amazing skills. Flawed, but good player. He is personally one of my favorite players to root for though. Someone made the comment about him being moved to 5th against RHP, and I agree. I have been disappointed in the lineup construction from a platoon standpoint. Basically, he and Hicks should be flip-flopping being higher and lower in the lineup based on pitcher handedness. There are other clear lineup movement that should be happening too, but it's not on the top of my list of disappointing non-decisions. Fun player, fun season.
  23. ShouldaCouldaWoulda
    Well, I don't really think that Rosario has done anything to show that he warrants an automatic corner spot. He has been good for stretches and in certain areas, but he most certainly a very flawed player, with chances of future failure a realistic possibility. Buxton is always an injury risk, and hasn't shown he is close to hitting MLB pitching. Hicks is also frequently dinged up, and can't hit RHP's, and needs to prove a more sustained level of success. Buxton, Rosario, and Hicks all have potential to improve, or at least stabilize, but the chance of going the other direction is just as good too. So, the odds that one fails and opens the door for Kepler is likely, at least at some point in the season. It is not like Hicks or Rosario can't be a 4th OF'er or platooned. They aren't automatic everyday start kind of guys. I like them, but just being realistic. IF, and this needs to be realized that this "IF" isn't guaranteed by any means, that Kepler hits well again next year...there will most likely be a path to playing time for him, once they can ensure his clock being delayed. Homers usually forget that young players regress, just as often as the progress. Being young does not mean a consistent climb in performance over time. Heck, even if it just the mere forgetting their muscle-memory mechanics over the winter. Some guys lose and never figure out how to recapture what it was that made them successful.
  24. ShouldaCouldaWoulda
    Didn't My Meyer and Burdi have great months? Maybe it's been more the past 30 days, than last month, but thought I remember looking at our top three bullpen prospects in Jay, Burdi, and Meyer and that they had all turned around terrible starts to awesome last 30 days or so.
  25. ShouldaCouldaWoulda
    I know, in time for Suzuki's contract to be up. That is what I was trying to say.
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