ShouldaCouldaWoulda

Didn't My Meyer and Burdi have great months? Maybe it's been more the past 30 days, than last month, but thought I remember looking at our top three bullpen prospects in Jay, Burdi, and Meyer and that they had all turned around terrible starts to awesome last 30 days or so.

That is the problem with not being able to strike guys out in the bullpen! No, all outs AREN'T equal. If you come in the game, with one out and a guy on third, anything but strikeout off the bat will likely score the runner. If there is runners in scoring position and less than two outs, it seems everyone other than May and Jepsen will give up that run. Walks don't equal hits either, so whip is not all equal. A walk won't advance a runner more than once base, where a single can do that, and of course extra base hits will. Take two pitchers with the same whip, and I'll take the guy with the higher k% and higher bb%, opposed to the guy who is more likely to give up more total basses and not strike guys out, add in that guys that don't strike guys out will have more errors behind hem due to the greater sample size of fielding chances....they should count against the pitcher to.

Yikes, I hope that you frequently clear your search history.

yeah, Fien in vs LH hitter, and then Cotts vs two RH hitters?! Are they even paying attention or trying?

I think we are looking at what Berrio's hypothetical role on this team would have been, and ignoring that the team had other options. If he truly is just being limited with innings, and we were both worried about him pitching deep in to game or pitching out of the bullpen....is there other options? I do not understand why the Twins could not just have a special plan with him as a starter. We are allowed a 40 man roster right now, I am guessing there are several more RP's that we could call up if we wanted. If so, why not just plan on starting Berrio's, but with the strategy of only pitching him 4-5 innings, while then using the added bullpen arms to help finish out the game. Seriously, if we wanted, how many bullpen arms could we have on the team right now if we wanted them up? If we could stalk a team full of RP's, then there is no need to worry about a guy going deep into games. Just use your RP's. We have enough LHP's that we could use the split advantage pretty well if we had to. Does any team ever do this? Use a ton of RP's in September? It seems like you could really do this as a strategy and to rest your SP's and regular RP's in some games. There is currently 20 guys on our 40 man roster, couldn't they all be up right now to be used in the facet?

I honestly like TR and think his overall body of work has been a net positive for the Twins. I just think the game has changed a lot and so has the business of the game, and what all goes into it. Hell, the game of baseball has changed great players like Mauer even. It happens, and maybe TR just isn't suited for a GM role in todays game. That doesn't mean he is bad, but maybe he's just not as good anymore. I don't know.

Yeah, I think it is really difficult to know how much credit to give the GM's on international signings, or even the draft. It is most likely information and suggestions that they are given, but often times the draft is a little luck of who is there and how much info you have on them. I think the most accurate way to judge a GM is by the MLB roster construction. What types of trades do they make, do they win them? Do they add the right pieces through FA, and do those players play better or worse than there previous years? Do they put the best 25 guys on the roster and in the right roles, if so, how long does that take them? Do they move on quickly from underperforming players with lower potential, or do they give long leashes to low upside guys? Do they make they make good business decisions with the tougher calls (service time, resigning guys, unloading, etc)? It also cannot be solely placed on wins and losses, as a winning team might actually be even better if the better clear and viable decisions were being made, and a losing team might actually might be making all the right decisions available and would otherwise be worse off. I like this seasons success, but I am torn on what I think about TR this year. I am trying my best to trust the decisions he's made all the right decisions. We might never know, as who knows what Berrios could have done had he been brought up in August, who knows what other moves could have been made at the deadline and whether they would have worked out, who knows whether May would have been mediocre in the rotation had he been there the whole season. Who knows what Vargas could have done as another option the past few months. We just don't know. Bill Smith could have us locked in a playoff spot with the decisions he would have made, or he could have us all focussed on football season since the all star break.

I know, in time for Suzuki's contract to be up. That is what I was trying to say.

This just gives me a feeling that the team does not plan on making any meaningful changes at catcher in the offseason.

However, giving Plouffe time at 1B raises his trade value to many teams due to the defensive flexibility.

I hope its just not that he's that flukey of a hot/cold player, or mentally/emotionally tough, or unfocussed. I hope its just that he's hurt, or not in great shape, or something easy with his mechanics to fix. His potential bat fits nicely with our team, while the defense is another story. I also think that this will always be a team that is going to have to mix it's OFs by platooning. Hicks is way too flawed to start regular vs RHP's, and the same goes for Rosario vs LHP's. They make a good partial platoon I guess. Arcia is likely a platoon vs RHP's as well. I guess I am fine with both Hicks and Rosario starting alongside Buxton, but they should flip-flop from being top 2 in the order and bottom 2 in the order vs whatever handed pitcher they are facing.

No, I understand that, with him being out of options. I just wasn't sure that he was. But, it does sound like we saved a super two scenario at least. I honestly just wanted clarification on his overall service situation. I think i have found that. So, basically he should be up in September and get as many PH opportunities and some starts vs RHP's, giving Plouffe a break, or anyone. Seems that we basically have to find a proper role for him next year, or try our best to trade him in the offseason. Seems the only way to get anything of value for him in a trade would be to try and build his value in September. But, we are in race, so building Arcia's value likely is an afterthought. Ultimately then, it would be best to bring him up, play him when the situation calls for it, and then do our best to get him right for next year, either on the bench or corner OF and DH? Thanks guys, I am not even thinking about his play this year....just looking at next year, and possible decisions the team will have to make. Should be very interesting who the team brings up on 9/1, and who plays where. Fun times.

So, there is no possible financial incentive to keep him down this year or next for any length?

I was just curious as to how being kept down for the majority of the year has, or could effect Arcia's service time. Can anyone inform me on whether keeping him down for any certain length longer would save on either his super 2 or free agency control? I put his BR page with his accrued days linked bellow, but I am a bit confused on the math of it all. I am just curious as to if the Twins would gain another year or something by keeping him down in September, or for a certain length next year. Any help of knowledge on this would be appreciated. I am not hinting that I think that is part of the reason he is being kept down, but only curious as if the Twins would gain any extra years by doing so. If so, his it may play into whether he is brought up as a left handed bench bat I would think. I know that writers were claiming that Marcell Ozuna was likely sent back and held down for an extended period this year due to this. Thanks guys. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/arciaos01.shtml

If the team to a stance and didn't call him or shut him down I could get on board with it, if the reason was to save on his service time clock. I honestly can get on board with that being the best overall move for the teams future. But, if they do those things due to the FO opinion that he is not ready or doesn't improve the rotation/pen, well then that is absurd, IMHO. What percentage of games have our SP's had quality starts in since the break? Who is our weakest link in the pen? I don't care where they put him, but if service clock isn't the reason he isn't up, I just can't fathom that argument for that decision. He would be an upgrade to either the pen or rotation at the moment, and you can't tell me that whomever is #40 on the 40 man roster isn't completely replaceable within or out. Again, I am fine if they shut him down or decide to make the business decision to keep him down, but not any explanation of not being ready, or that they could not find someone that he would be an improvement over. I just hope, that the two worst non-injury scenarios happen; that he either gets held back and the Twins just miss the playoff, or that he gets brought up and that we don't finish very close to the final wild card spot. I will trust in TR, and hope he's right on this one. I don't have a choice either.

I am just excited that our prized relievers Meyer, Burdi, and Jay have all had great months, after struggling most of the year. Good to see. Meyer could be a nice arm for us in September.

I PERSONALLY hope that the Twins bring up Vargas in September. I also would like to see him starting at DH vs RHP's at least 50% of the time, while sitting Plouffe, and moving Sano to 3B. The more smart platooning we start to do the better. It will be interesting to see how many OF's are up in September, and how appropriately they will all be platooned and placed in the lineup. Lineups should not look the same vs RHP's and LHP's. On Varas though, I think he hits way too many ground balls, which will make the MLB shift his nightmare. Maybe he isn't getting shifted as much in the minors, but in the majors, he is a shift casualty.

I don't think EITHER of Buxton or Hermann had a good chance to succeed in that situation. They were probably too concerned about Buxton's ego had he failed again in that situation, but pulling him pretty much says you expected him to fail anyways, and is even more embarrassing that he was pulled for a backup catcher. He already had a bad night, so pulling him only ensured that he didn't have the chance to turn that around. They should have left him in. If he gets a hit it could have been season turning for him, and lit the team on fire again. Not likely, but there just many good options in that situation.

I highly doubt it was the case, but is it possible that Moliter is pissed about his bench options? And that this was a way to prove and show his frustration? Again, I think that is likely not the case, but say he has asked for a better bench bat over and over and he has been denied by the the FO...this does seem like an effective way to make a point. If nothing else, hopefully it made a point by accident....regardless, help is on the way next week.

I think that is mostly due to the quality of pitchers pinch hitters are facing. Pinch hitting is likely to be in the last 3 innings of the game, and relievers are pretty damn good these days....well, on the whole they are, even more so in the 8th and 9th.

I did't mean to imply that the Twins are naive, but only that believing that service time is not the greatest variable in all of this is naive. And, of course there are other variables. The teams like the Rays and A's that are not afraid to bring up young pitching (when their stuff and velocity is still their best) are also the teams that flip these guys for future assets, rather than resign them. They view young pitchers pretty much equivalent as NFL teams now view RB's. Use them up when they are young, and are most physically gifted, but don't waste money on the declining and injury years. The Twins only really traded Garza young, the other pitchers were traded due to selling low.

I DO think the Twins believe he is ready to help the MLB team, and if they don't think that...well, there needs to be house cleaning. I can't count how many nationally respected writers have scratched their heads as to why he's still in the minors, while the Twins are so close to winning that final wild card spot. I think I have read two comments about it today already. I don't know what the right answer is, to be honest. The only reason I would want him up for is if we seriously feel we can capture that final wild card spot. Is that risk of bringing him up and not making it, while starting his clock, worth the benefits of making the wild card game? Heck, he'd probably be the only guy who'd give us chance in said wild card play in game. My guess is that he either is up next week, or is shut down in the next few weeks. The Twins have to be well aware of the outcry their would be if they just missed out on the playoffs, with Berrios dominating for more starts. But, they can give themselves an "out" by shutting him down, so that they can't make it about whether or not he was ready, or the obvious criticism about service time. I really don't think this is about a 40 man roster spot to protect easily replaceable guys, or whether he is ready. This is about service time, and service time alone. Any other speculation is pretty naive. And, I also understand that is likely a good big picture move. But, if they are serious about the playoffs, there is absolutely no excuse not to bring him up YESTERDAY. If they are not serious, do not bring up, and shut him down soon, so they can have an excuse to keep him back down for a few starts next season to delay his clock. They are making this hard on themselves, but they need to make a decision one way or another after his next start.

-Find out Sano is older than he is in some weird story. -Sano gets fat and happy...literally. -We resign Pelfrey...because he's a groundball machine and his ERA...and clubhouse presence. -Perkins discovers he needs a major surgery to an underlying issue of some sort. -Prospect, like Kepler, being injured in Fall League. -Going after a C or SS that is no better than our current placeholders. -Not trying to use Walker as a trading chip. -Letting Mauer do whatever he thinks he needs to do in the offseason to prepare for next season. -Hicks doesn't put in the type of work he did last offseason, because he thinks he has made his place. -Rosario gets in trouble for something. -Resigning Hunter -Selling low on Meyer, Arcia, Vargas, and Pinto in a trade. -Believing that Santana and Polanco can play SS consistently.

I believe the term is used more for players whose contract and production are such that it becomes extremely likely that their contract would be perceived as ultimately unmovable. This contract essentially makes it become a "sunk cost" to be, and should be viewed as one, since the contract is guaranteed and the production is likely not believed to return. At that point at team needs to decide whether it is better to just keep throwing a lesser player out there over and over, because they have committed money to him in the future. Or, just suck up the pride and move on and acknowledge the team made a mistake, but is moving on. Problem is, many teams dont move on. I don't have a problem calling it a "sunk cost."

Just watching th game with my friends, I realize why they don't use advanced stats. However, I never understood why they use a players total stats, as opposed to his platoon stats. Using a players total stats for a guy like Hicks when he's facing either a RHP or LHP misses the point, that he's either very much bellow or above average vs them, and the totals just blur that and miss the story.