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ShouldaCouldaWoulda

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Everything posted by ShouldaCouldaWoulda

  1. ShouldaCouldaWoulda
    It seems that the Twins have been cursed when it comes to Mauer. Seems like we "didn't get enough of a healthy Mauer in the lineup" during his productive years, while we are "getting too much of a healthy Mare in the lineup." Guy can't stay in the lineup during productive years, while he stays healthy in his unproductive yeas. Seriously Joe, you choose NOW to stay healthy?! Because we all know the only way he is being pulled form the lineup is injury, which I will assume will be bound to happen sooner or later I guess. Is an injured more valuable to the club in than an healthy Mauer? Would never wish any harm on any person, so I am not "hoping" this happens, simply that it is then only way he won't be in our lineup.
  2. ShouldaCouldaWoulda
    Some Fangraphs articles on Hughes, for some context. The first link is from June and talks about this year, while the last two are from December. Nice reads. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/both-sides-of-the-phil-hughes-argument/ http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/twins-reward-the-phil-hughes-breakthrough/ http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/regarding-phil-hughes-and-2014/
  3. ShouldaCouldaWoulda
    I agree and disagree with this at the same time, and it is more of a, "what else could/should we have done?" I too liked all 3 of those signings at the time of them. I never at any point liked the Pelfrey singing first or second time. However, I also never thought that any of those signing gave us a top #1-2 type of starter, and in fact I personally felt they were all #4-5 starters, which is probably true if you look at their past performances and future projections. Now, I also felt like they ALL were upgrades from what we were throwing out there in previous years, so I felt they absolutely improved this team, and they by in large have done that for the most part, until recently. I did not think any of them were the type of pitchers that could lead us to the postseason, or give us a chance if we somehow snuck in to the postseason. I thought this current staff makeup was decent, but very flawed, and more of a lower-middle of the pack type of rotation, and thats probably what their true level is. Not good, but not this bad.
  4. ShouldaCouldaWoulda
    Well, I was vey much thinking about this last night, while my toddler was headbutting me and kicking me in the ribs at midnight. Seems like the Twins play is keeping him up at nights too, but that is rant for some different forum. Part of the problem is simply the "type" of pitchers we have in our rotation, and their true talent levels. If you look at all of the different projection systems out there, they all aren't very high on any of our guys. Past performance only has Hughes as successful last year, and Santana for stretches a few years removed. NONE of them have sported good K/9 rates anytime recently. We don't miss bats, and I feel part of that is the talent they don't possess, and has to be part of team philosophy, and the way games are being called behind the plate. I would like to get our catchers comments about what they have or haven't been doing different since the break. I would like see our overall heat maps since the break, and pitch values of the different types of pitches since the break? Basically, "what" AND "where" are we getting pounded as a staff? The bullpen is a different story, well not really, but first things first, as the bullpen really isn't an issue if game is already over once they are in.
  5. ShouldaCouldaWoulda
    You mean like service time?
  6. ShouldaCouldaWoulda
    Well, let's put it this way; we are closer to last place in our division (3.5 games) than we are to the last Wild Card spot (4 games.) With the worst projected rest of season winning percentage in the AL, and living up to that projection for a decent stretch now. One thing I ponder is what would the actual difference be if the FO made some more trades at the deadline? But more importantly and realistically, what if the FO just made the simple moves available in the system of; Berrios and May to pitch in the rotation, taking Pelfrey and Milnone out, demote and promote the weakest links of the bullpen while bringing up the best minor league options until you find the right ones, bring up Arcia to platoon vs RH's. What is more negligent of the FO, not making the trades or not making the moves of putting your best talent in the best spots of the MLB club to help you win? The fact that Berrios' call up has not been announced yet signals that the FO either thinks this club just isn't good enough to challenge even with him in the rotation, or, that they just can't get out of their own way of blundering this opportunity to compete this year. I would be in hiding right now if I were TR. Just way too many moves that aren't being made that could plausibly help this team.
  7. ShouldaCouldaWoulda
    Scroll up to post #9 of this thread. It is the first link.
  8. ShouldaCouldaWoulda
    http://www.beyondthe...speed-2014-2015
  9. ShouldaCouldaWoulda
    Yeah, here is an introduction article describing what goes into the system http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/10/19/6999245/mlb-prospects-javier-speed-2014-2015 I like that KATOH forecasting system from Fangraphs a bit better, but still fun to look at names that are high on both. http://www.hardballtimes.com/katoh-forecasting-a-hitters-major-league-performance-with-minor-league-stats/ http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/katohs-top-200-prospect-list/ Fun to compare number projections in a addition to what scouts say.
  10. ShouldaCouldaWoulda
    I like how this "JAVIER" prospect comparison system has him ranked amongst all players in its system...#22. I also like how this system feels about Sano...#8. Buxtion was somewhere in the 60's, which was still good. https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?cid=5ab9c2f9805dd9b0&id=documents&resid=5AB9C2F9805DD9B0%21153&app=Excel&authkey=!AGPF-fRg5mtd2cI&
  11. ShouldaCouldaWoulda
    I agree. What makes people think that the guy with lowest K/9 of any qualified SP in the entire MLB, would some how be a great option in the 8th inning?! Maybe he should just be our long relief and swing starter in a pinch. He just isn't a good fit for the rotation OR bullpen. Guys like him need to play in front of elite team defenses, and get lucky to have sustained luck-based success. He is Chris Young, but without a good defense. Oh wait, his luck ran out too. Don't buy into low-talented short stints of success. Taking May out of the rotation was both the right and wrong decision. The guy looks the part as an endgame shutdown reliever. However, endgame relievers are only valuable to good teams. If the Twins thought they had 5 equal to or better SP's, then he was the best fit as a backend guy...it's just that they should not have any reason to believe that Pelfrey or Milone, and maybe anyone in the pen, was better than May. WE saw this coming, like so many of their glaringly obvious blunders. Berrios has his most dominant start tonight, and the Twins SP's have been shelled recently...the obvious to EVERYONE decision here will most likely not be made once again.
  12. ShouldaCouldaWoulda
    But, I would trade our Trevor's for their Carlos's (Corasco and Santana.)
  13. ShouldaCouldaWoulda
    Yikes, I think our Trevor's>their Cody's.
  14. ShouldaCouldaWoulda
    heeeeheeeeeeheeeee. I kid, I kid....but, wouldn't be surprised.
  15. ShouldaCouldaWoulda
    As many as the amount of Trevor's we have out there;)
  16. ShouldaCouldaWoulda
    That was clutch of Torii though. His leadership style probably only works when he's hitting. The team winning kinda coincided with the stretch he was hitting.
  17. ShouldaCouldaWoulda
    That a boy Torii......(Just earned being brought back next year)
  18. ShouldaCouldaWoulda
    Nice, like how they addressed both the question of when will May be transitioned back, and will Pelfreys role be addressed. It is not just us.
  19. ShouldaCouldaWoulda
    I know, and depending on you look at it or frame it, they all could be right I guess. It is perspective. Is it that he's been better than what we've had the past several years? Or, is he better than we expected him to be? Or, better than some of the others in our rotation? Or, better than our other options in the minors and bullpen? I think he has been a pleasant surprise too, but only from what I expected out of him, and only from time to time. I have never once believed in his ERA as being backed by skill. He was hard to watch tonight, but he's often hard to watch even when the balls are falling in gloves or in the infield. Even with his decent surprise outings, he still looks lackluster as a whole when compared to the what one would expect out of decent to good starter. Yes, the guy has what it takes to luck into some soft contact outings where the ball lands in favorable spots for us, but we are always playing with fire and luck with this. Blackburn had good starts like Pelf's last one too, but was more often like tonight. So, one thinking Pelfrey has been pleasant, are simply people with very low expectations, and or just go along with the teams decisions. I am just getting tired of the glaringly obvious moves and decisions taking forever for to be made by the team, even with idiots like myself pointing them out for weeks or months, only for the fans to be right, but the move coming to late. I just don't understand why sunken costs should ever come into play with a decent to good team, or any team.
  20. ShouldaCouldaWoulda
    Maybe I am not looking hard enough, but it doesn't seem anyone has held the FO or Molier's feet to the fire over Pelfrey still being in the rotation. Have they addressed this anywhere, and I just missed it? I can just imagine if they were asked about Pelf tonight, that is would sound something like...... "The big guy did his job keeping us in the game tonight....wasn't his fault..."
  21. ShouldaCouldaWoulda
    ...compared to......?
  22. ShouldaCouldaWoulda
    We have all posted about how bad he ACTUALLY is, regardless of some decent games of not giving up runs through luck. Crappy thing is that the Twins have lost so much lately, BUT of course he pitched one of the only good games in there. So, inevitably he will get a months worth of terrible games and still stick in the rotation. Two more games like tonight, and the FO or Moliter still won't be talking about a change. One good, or decent start, buys guys like him like 3-5 meh starts.
  23. ShouldaCouldaWoulda
    I agree. Questioning things like this is due to past history and an urgency for becoming a top organization in areas that a mid market team NEEDS to be good at.
  24. ShouldaCouldaWoulda
    I wonder if he didn't mean the super 2 service time clock, but delaying that by another year...if he continued to struggle. As in, if he didn't get hurt, he likely would have been sent down again. It is possible that we could have tried to push back his FA, or even Super another year if he was struggling and we were continuing to get production out of Rosario and Hicks, and we were out of the hunt.
  25. ShouldaCouldaWoulda
    That is why I brought it up. I really think we need to look at the closest comps to prospects in the most amount of areas that we can in order to get a better gauge of how excited we should be. I also am not certain his LH/RH splits are necessarily gong to stick as he goes up. LH pitchers get a lot of chances in the minors, but the ones in AA aren't always guys with great stuff. There are a lot of MLB LH starters that are just filthy these days, especially relievers. MLB splits will probably look different. Zobrist seemed like the closest comp to me, and Yelich has better defense. Heyward or Gordon would be like his 95%ile, but not likely. Not the same size, but Rosario with a better BB% maybe. The problem is, is that with the likelihood of his power not translating to Target Field, he would need to provide elite corner OF defense (not likely there yet), provide a good avg/obp...but likely he would have to rely on a ridiculous BAIP in order to do that like Rosario now and Santana last year, or like he is doing in AA. Guys like Santana, Rosario, and Kepler can be assets as long as their defense is great, and hitting over their heads. I am not sure Kepler can do that over a sustained period. Maybe, but not sure. I doubt Rosario can keep this up either. Underlying numbers usually tell the truth over time.
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