ShouldaCouldaWoulda

I could always just blame my dyslexia (ironic that word is difficult to spell), but most of my typing errors are due to rushing and laziness....and likely not going to 'change.'

Lol, I know. I typed the simple ";" and ")" in order to create a winking smiley face to show that I enjoyed your jest. However, that just auto created this.... , which made it appear I did not enjoy or understand your jest, so I changed it quick.

Maybe the 'normalized luck' is just them swinging in the opposite luck direction as last year. Last year everyone defended their success as just getting it done, and luck wasn't part of it. So, on the same token for losing then? I agree with you though, think this team is better than this, but honestly just didn't think it was that great of team to begin with.

If you were to 'marry it' you would no longer like it, and you would in fact likely grow to detest all that is contained within it. Plus, I noticed I had two cases of writing 'their' when 'there' belonged. I am quite guilty of never reading or editing anything I write.

I completely agree with your take on sinker pitchers and I have been in the belief that Stewart will not contribute much, it at all to the MBL club. I have thought that for a few years and the belief is only solidifying. On his attitude, I wonder if it is just his natural personalty since a kid, or if there is more behind it. The comment about being a 1st rounder attitude might be right, but it might be due to thinking something else. It is possible that he is bitter and jaded having been a 1st rounder and having high expectations, but that he knows he has not been meeting them and that others are disappointed in him. He could just assume everyone he comes in contact with is 'down' on him as a prospect, which could just make him want to avoid others. Knowing that he might not become what he thought he would might have killed his confidence and love for the game. Could just be thinking, "What if I chose football?! Did I make a big mistake?" Or, he COULD just be an A-hole (not calling him one, so don't go overboard on reacting to this please.) In any case, I hope the kid figures it out and ends up being more than just a guy who creates weak contact on the ground. Hard to get too excited about that, especially with the velocity being what it is now...not like it is going to increase, but likely will decrease. Prove us all wrong KS, please.

I absolutely agree with this in most cases as well. I realize that every pitcher and situation is different and that there is more gray area than black and white. However, I completely believe that leaving hitters in the minors to save on service time is generally a wise business and competitive idea, but that doing so with pitchers generally is not. Recent evidence shows that pitchers velocity and often 'stuff' declines already in their low twenties, and then fairly consistently in their mid-upper twenties. The wear and tear of pitching more in their youth has lead to extra mileage than in the past, and has lead to more injuries of the elbows and shoulders. Waiting for guys to be be a finished product in terms of refinement more than often can lead to injury, plateauing, or declining before they ever get their. If you do wait for a pitcher to be sufficiently refined and it takes too long you may very well be left with a pitcher that is at peak performance, but likely is not going to improve any, and will likely decline over time. The environment and resources of data, video, coaching, other successful pitchers, and medical staff at the MLB likely bring the opportunity to the hardest workers to succeed even more than they did in the minors. This goes for both sides of the ball, and several guys have proved this and even mentioned it as the reason for their success, like Conforto and McCullers...the environment allowed them to improve. I believe that guys with good 'stuff' and velocity should be moved up more quickly because often this is the main source of their success and it plays at ALL levels, and allows for more mistakes. Guys that are not blessed with great velocity and 'stuff' should be moved up more slowly because they NEED to be a finished product to succeed and the lack of stuff and velocity means that they are also less likely to end up injured. Their are teams that are more careful and their are teams that move guys up quickly. The teams that move guys up quickly also seem to realize that these guys best years seem to come before they ever hit free agency, and often decline after that. This knowledge also seems to lead these teams to be less reluctant to part ways with these pitchers before it comes to that free agency decision comes, and they are not afraid to flip them for other future or current assets. The A's seemed to have figured this out long ago, but the Cardinals stand out more recently. Even the Whitesox with their pair of good lefties. Of course, sometimes it works out and sometimes not, but that is just as much the case if left in the minors, and you can always send them back down if it is very clear they are not ready over a DECENT sample size and settling in. It is best to think of pitchers as replaceable girlfriends and hitters as wives you are committed to in a way. You can't just assume that a pitcher is going to have a linear improvement line because they are marinating in the minors. That might happen, but it might not due to many physical, mental, emotional, and environmental factors. I feel it is best to be very aggressive with guys with good stuff and velocity when they are having success and only slowing or backstopping IF some major hiccup shows up. If guys succeed their way to the majors, they should be given ample time to settle in and learn. If they prove they are not ready over time, then send them back down, and bring them back when ready. But, don't say they aren't ready and waste their talent if you do not know that through seeing it. What if Meyer would have improved and succeeded due to all of those resources in the MLB mentioned earlier? Was he given enough time to use them and to settle in? Maybe he just won't improve anymore in the minors and just needs to learn at the higher level to take the next step. What if Berrios was moved to AAA sooner last year, and then to the majors after the super-2 date? Would that have been enough starts for him to have helped us into the playoffs? Throwing in the minors is not any less harmful to his arm than at the majors, and he is not a big kid. Those smaller guys seem to lose their velocity even quicker. What if be leaving him down he just gets injured in one of those last pre-FA years, or his stuff and velocity already starts to decline in them? Will it matter if he is refined then? Bird matches this too. He is the type of guy that might have similar results at ANY level, but might learn and grow the most at the majors. Not that he IS ready for that, but maybe push him even further ahead. Waiting on him to 'figure it out' seems awful assumptive and waiting forever, so use assets and refine him with the best their is to learn from. Just my philosophy in the grand scale, but of course each situation is different and their is more gray like I mentioned.

On both sides of the ball.

Is this something they are considering full-time with him? On one hand it would be nice to have an elite defensive 3B, but seems like he'd be pretty offensively average to below average there.

Is Perkins our closer? If so, how long is the over/under on that lasting?

IF...that is where he sits roughly it does not look like a good mix. The difference from FB to change is way to close to be consistently effective.

Assuming that Mauer is just going to stay as healthy as he was last year is also something that should obviously not be expected. I would speculate he could spend quite a bit of time on the DL the next few seasons, which could open up some auditions for some guys to prove themselves.

If we are going to mention Duffey in this thread so much, please lead it with his velocity updates from spring training;) Thank you.

I was disappointed in the way the Twins have not optimized platoons in the past and last year. I think losing Hicks really takes away some great options for them. Ideally, I would have liked to see Rosario/Hicks create a platoon with the other serving as a late inning defensive replacement or bat late in games. Arcia could serve as the 5th OF'r, and platoon with Buxton/Sano/Park/Hicks to get plenty of at bats with our other OF's being able to slide around for him pretty easily. This would give the Twins time to let Kepler's clock to pass and make him prove last year wasn't an aberration. If this arrangement is working out great, you can afford to keep Kepler down longer, trade one of the pieces (like Hicks or Arcia), or get a bigger piece using Kepler (only if that OF was working out great.) I also think that Plouffe should be platooned more often, as he is not very good vs RHP, but there are less options there. The one option that would have and does make sense, is having Sano play some or a lot 3B and sitting Plouffe, and sliding in Arcia to the OF, or Kepler when he's ready. There are a lot of ways to platoon better, but not having Hicks has taken away a great option we could have used to optimize our lineup, defense, and bench. We still have options, but I highly doubt we will take advantage of them. Hopefully no one flounders enough vs same side pitchers for this to become an issue, but I see Rosario and Plouffe to continue to struggle, and maybe more.

Thank you for the info.

I would not count on him gaining velocity from last year. He might....but, he's probably just as likely, if not more likely, to lose more velocity from last year. I am pretty skeptical on him returning to '14 form, but doubt he will be as bad as he was last year.

A guy named named Jeff Zimmerman does updates everyday in season of every pitchers velocity and compares it to the previous season, with a difference column. Kind of nice to follow during the season. He has only done one spring training one so far and no Twins were on it though. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Jg67sqoaBgi8mWOfnUmBDr7dPtVxzwu_zijxA3DyxsI/edit#gid=0

Don't need this to be a who cares about it or why we should...that information is out there. Guys can often lose and sometimes gain velocity from season to season, and within the season. Velocity updates I've heard or read so far...not sure if this is up or down form last year: Berrios 94? Burdi 99?

Any word on the early velocity readings from any of these guys? Watched the game last night and noticed it was shown on the scoreboard, but it was not on TV. I know things can change, but sometimes early readings have a guy throwing much higher or lower than before, which can give us something to go off of. Part of the problem of assuming guys will be as good or bad as the year before, or yeas before is that they assume they can recapture once accomplished stats with diminished stuff and velocity. If Hughes is going to get back to how he pitched 2 years ago...it is never going to happen with his velocity from last year.

I have not read anywhere on the concerns of him vs right-handed hitters. He sported a 4.97 ERA and more worrisome a 1.82 WHIP vs them vs Right-handers in 12.2 innings of A+ ball. He held a decent K%, but that is not a promising stat for someone we are hoping to be a starter. Yes, it was only 12.2 innings, but they were not good ones by any means. Now, I am really really hoping that he was being forced to use a certain new pitch and was not allowed to use his best pitch or something, but I have not read anything on that.

That is my point...it is not a "thing"because of throwing out runners at 2B and 3B, which we are learning play very little of importance anyway......and could likely be made up for by the much smoother receiving of the pitch, allowing for a quicker throw. Old paradigms. Also, factoring into the lack of lefty catchers is that any lefty with a good arm is likely on the mound. Teams should be out looking for a good catcher that is a lefty, or some young kids should be looking to pioneer in this. Many things in baseball are not things, until they are. The past ten years has seen many shifts in team makeup and how the game is played compared to in the past.

KS is likely never going to be a good hitter for a season again. He might have something better than last year, but not likely anything that a fanbase should be excited about. My personal opinion and observations is that he just is not very good "overall" defensively. I think KS gets extra props and perceived bonus points for being a great guy and being tough. This gives him some sort of perceived positive of being a leader and handler of the staff. However, I really don't think those traits make him a good catcher or game caller. He is just liked is all. I "like" him too, just not offensively or defensively. Defensively, I really do not see him as a good catcher in any area. Everyone is aware of him being a really bad thrower and framer. The former being less important, and the later being much more important. However, the one area that I have noticed KS as a liability through watching games very intricately last season, is that makes odd pitch sequencing decisions and calls for terrible placement locations on the regular. I can't remember how many times huge rallies or big hits came from a pitch being exactly where or near he set up for it. I repeatedly would say to myself WTF is he calling for that pitch for right now and why would he ask for it in that location?! Of course, that is not ALL the time and of course guys would miss spots too. But, overall his calling left me scratching my head and often it had major consequences. *Sidenote: In all the catcher framing articles I have read over the past few years on Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus I have noticed and watched several gif breakdowns in them. They never made this point, but I noticed that catchers that are the opposite handedness as the pitcher seem to receive and frame the ball much better than same-handed battery mates. Particularly, this seemed even more so the case with sliders and curveballs, which of course are most pitchers "outpitch." If you cannot get a hitter to swing and miss on that outpitch, at least there is a chance you might get a called strike on the edges, right. You would think these 2 strike breaking balls would factor in several strike 3 calls or non calls, which have the biggest implications in games. ***Aesthetically, a pitch being framed from a opposite handed battery mate is much much smoother. Especially so when the catcher is stabbing at and stopping a breaking ball to the outside of the pitchers glove side. In stopping those breaking pitches, the ball is coming toward and into his glove, and not away as it would for an opposite handed glove mate. This makes for a very smooth and easy catching of the ball, with very little movement. The catcher also does not need to reach across his body to extend his arm or turn his torso to stop breaking balls at the edge, nor does the ball pull his glove with momentum. All of that lack of extra movement and effort has to make the pitch "look" better to the ump than the same pitch that might have a same sided catcher extending his arm, or turning his torso, having the glove pulled by momentum or having to pull the ball back in order to frame it. Maybe this is why the Dodgers, White Sox, and Pirates are going so LH heavy this year. Anything out there on this? If you watch some of these videos in slow motion, it really is easy and drastic in the difference in movement by the catchers in receiving and framing by opposite handed catchers vs same handed catchers.

Thank you...I believed it to be, but was not positive. No coffee today.

My sarcasm detector is wonky right now, please correct this for me.

*Conspiracy Theory* Park was signed to play DH, and some 1B, with no other spot to man. Plouffe was kept on purpose, but partly because there was nothing being offered that made us even marginally better. He plays 3B and 1B, with an outside chance of emergency OF corner. Sano WAS the DH, thought to be the incoming 3B, and many saw as a 1B any day soon, but now is being pushed to the OF. Mauer is 1B and DH. The best player here by far now and in the future is Sano. He will NOT be sitting or sharing time. Park was signed in the hopes of having major power, but is 1B and DH only. I really do feel that the Twins "hope" this configuration works out, but also very much believe that they know that this is a 50/50 shot of Sano working in the OF. With that being acknowledged, and if Park and Plouffe are performing better or on par with Mauer....could this be the Twins way of having their hand "forced" to sit Mauer if all the other guys are outperforming him and Sano is a flop in the OF? This would be a way for the team to not have the hard conversation of sitting him for someone of less significance. I could see Mauer, Plouffe, and Park all rotating or platooning to some degree. I think if Sano gets pushed back to 3B/1B/DH, that Mauer ends up in some sort of platoon with Mauer hitting against RHP's and sitting against LHP, with Plouffe and Park rotating of who sits and hits against RHP. Mauer really could not buck this, as it would make him look selfish, and it would wipe the Twins hands clean of having that conversation. Once the part time player role happens, it would be easier to wean him IF he does not hit..."IF" Maybe, just maybe.