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Taildragger8791

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Everything posted by Taildragger8791

  1. Taildragger8791
    I think he'd probably be affordable and is a solid mid-rotation guy to help you get through a season. Can eat innings without hurting you. I wouldn't count on him to be available >70% of the season or in the postseason however. As long as his contract doesn't restrict you too much then great, sign him.
  2. Taildragger8791
    Any word on what Cavaco is working through? First 8 games were nice but over the next 12 his OPS is .330 with the same brutal strikeout/walk rate he showed in GCL. Not to panic on a kid with so few games under his belt and a missed season, but shouldn't there be a little more of a raw "hit" tool to show? At least in flashes? I guess I expected to see the raw skills show through before adjustments come into play that induce ups & downs over time. How is his defense/baserunning?
  3. Taildragger8791
    What happened to Buxton supposedly being ready for rehab games a week ago? Then supposedly ready again this last weekend? Still not in the Saints lineup tonight either...
  4. Taildragger8791
    SLG asside, his May OBP was .261, walk rate cratered, and strikeout rate regressed back to almost 42%. I don't see how slugging percentage can come close to balancing out those other factors. He helped win a few games with random HRs, but how many games could have changed if he just puts a few balls in play with runners on? So many rallies snuffed out.
  5. Taildragger8791
    I'm talking less about strikeouts and more about making quality contact. Hitting for average and identifying good pitches. The raw "hit" tool. We know La Tortuga can get the bat to the ball and may not strike out a ton, but the value of his bat is still limited by discipline and the quality of the contact (i.e., giving the opposing infield a day of pop up practice).
  6. Taildragger8791
    To me, the #1 trait that seems to predict hitting success is raw bat-to-ball skills. Guys in the minors that either miss a lot of pitches or can't read pitches in A/AA ball rarely dramatically improve in those areas. They might get better at guessing or optimizing their approach/swing for success in the event they run into a pitch, but that isn't a recipe for sustainable success against the upper tier pitchers. Unfortunately, we've loaded up on too many guys that lack the raw bat-to-ball skills in exchange for power or toolsy athleticism. Thus, the logjam of guys who are readily mowed down by playoff-caliber pitchers.
  7. Taildragger8791
    K's are a part of the game but a lineup with too many guys like that will be murderous to watch. More solo HRs and runners left on base. More high variance offense where they score 3 or fewer runs, or pile up 8+ runs. Win-loss record isn't fooled by feasting on bad pitchers to pad stats, while famishing against good pitchers that pick apart those hole-filled swings. </rant>
  8. Taildragger8791
    Not sure the commenter was concerned about the quantity of pitching, but rather quality. Pineda and Maeda are both out for a bit and Maeda hasn't been good. Happ and Shoemaker are high risk to throw clunkers. Dobby looked good the other day but he's gotta prove himself a bit.
  9. Taildragger8791
    I don't know how hitters can justify strikeouts as "just another out" but at the same time teams are going for strikeouts at all costs on the pitching side because that's the best outcome for any at bat. No damage can happen on a strikeout. Even in a potential double play situation the pitcher will take the strikeout every time because it doesn't advance a runner, put pressure on the defense, create fluky plays, etc. I have a hard time believing that avoiding double plays by striking out vs putting the ball in play could possibly balance out. What percentage of balls in play in that situation create a double play vs a single unproductive out vs a single productive out? At what rate do errors get induced?
  10. Taildragger8791
    It's great to see him warming up, although I have my doubts it'll last much longer since he still isn't handling the low stuff well. That homerun yesterday was a middle-in cookie thrown right into his happy zone. He still has a long ways to go to make up for being a black hole for the month and a half prior. Several games lost by a run or two where a few more hits and balls in play could have made the difference.
  11. Taildragger8791
    They are unlikely to be in contention next year anyways. They already need to find 3 new starters next year. If Maeda doesn't fix himself it might be 4. Berrios is closer to a 3 on a true contender if you look around at their rotations. High-3's ERAs don't usually anchor a playoff staff. Then you still have to sign him for 2023 and beyond, where he'll probably ask to be paid like a #1 or #2. He'll be valued more by another team as a strong piece to round out a playoff squad rather than anchoring our rebuilding rotation. Him and Buxton are both greater than 50% odds to be gone in FA in my estimation. With Buck it's more because agreeing on a value for a guy who's always hurt is going to be impossible. So someone will likely swoop in and take the risk to pay him top dollar if he keeps producing.
  12. Taildragger8791
    Any relation to former secretary of defense Donald Rumsfeld?
  13. Taildragger8791
    Refsnyder? The 30 year old with a career .227/.312/.308 slash line? He's more of a "break glass in case of emergency" kind of guy. Unfortunately we've already broken the glass.
  14. Taildragger8791
    I also love seeing a guy get to 111 pitches rather than pulling him at 90 while he's cruising.
  15. Taildragger8791
    Cavaco cooled off a bit and the strikeouts are piling up. Almost 40% K-rate. Hopefully he's working through some adjustments...
  16. Taildragger8791
    These feels like one of those situations where someone is such an outlier that they broke the advanced statistic. It's missing a little context not being position-adjusted. Looks like league-wide wRC+ is 104 & 111 for 1B & DH this year. So still not too far off. But oof-dah that was one heck of a black hole for 3/4 of the season to date just to get to this point.
  17. Taildragger8791
    I honestly read the situation as they have confidence in Dobnak but just want him to tighten up a couple things before sending him to the MLB rotation. Thorpe, it seems like they don't know what to do with him and are just bouncing him around without a plan.
  18. Taildragger8791
    I stand somewhat corrected. Looks like he's up to mid-80s for pitch count but maybe they want him to go 1-2 more starts. I'd hope to seem in a week or two if he's still pitching well. I've seen enough out of Shoemaker and Happ in the rotation.
  19. Taildragger8791
    Isn't he being stretched out? Based on his last start he isn't quite ready to go 80+ pitches. Maybe in another week or 10 days he'll be there.
  20. Taildragger8791
    There's MLB talent on the hitting side for sure. Things will shake out nicely there over the next few years once the current contracts clear and you get a couple free agents to fill in. Spending all the high draft picks on hitting is turning out well for that side of the ball. I'm less confident on the pitching side. Pitchers are so volatile in translating from AA/AAA to MLB and most of our top guys are rocking mid-3's ERAs in the minors. Then they still have to stay healthy. Just based on average success rates you'd be fortunate to get 2 starters out of that group which leaves a lot of holes to fill via trade/FA. Especially if Berrios walks. I have concerns...
  21. Taildragger8791
    I think you hit it for me here. I watched a lot of bad Twins and Timberwolves teams over the years because there were players I liked, interesting young guys to watch develop, and you'd still get some interesting and competitive games often enough. This team is just so bland and lifeless and I'm worn out by the playoff ineptitude. The games aren't interesting even if they're close. One-dimensional low-contact high-variance offense, bad defense, no running or apparent strategy, and a bad pitching staff with no up and comers mostly on expiring deals. Rookies/prospects are hurt or struggling, Buxton is hurt again, core players have stalled out and regressed, and there's an impending feeling of doom regarding contract extensions & health for Buxton/Berrios that makes it hard to get excited about their future. I don't know how to enjoy watching this team this year.
  22. Taildragger8791
    They're definitely closer to a reset than a rebuild since the cupboard is far from bare. I think it'll be more like a 3 year project though. There are quite a few existing holes to fill (mostly pitching and catching), new holes coming with vets that will be gone (Cruz, Pineda, Simmons), bad contracts that will clog the roster (Sano, Kepler, Polanco), some sort of resolution is needed on Buxton/Berrios extensions, and the upcoming rookies need to develop. It'll be interesting to see how all these issues are managed this year and going into 2022. Could be a very different squad, for better or worse.
  23. Taildragger8791
    I don't see how you even fix this team for next year without opening up the checkbook big time. You'll need to sign half a bullpen, a catcher, a SS, a 4th OF, and two SP. Then probably overpay on extensions for Buxton/Berrios and find a way to clear the $25 million from Polanco, Kepler, & Sano. Since almost every item on that list is nigh impossible for this team it leaves almost no choice but to sell and retool. What a bummer.
  24. Taildragger8791
    They don't have to bring a lot of value. There's an argument for addition by subtraction, especially with Sano. Free up money to throw at Berrios/Buxton, make room for Kirilloff, Arraez, Larnach, Rooker, etc.
  25. Taildragger8791
    The reasonable explanation is that those 4 guys knew well enough not to bet on themselves and took the guaranteed money while they still had the 'potential' label on them. Buxton and Berrios know that they have much more talent and the ability to realize it enough to get paid big if they just keep progressing and stay healthy.
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