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Taildragger8791

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Everything posted by Taildragger8791

  1. Taildragger8791
    It seems to me the litmus test for these guys is whether or not the minor league pipeline can start churning out arms. Everything up to now has been band-aids to make do with veterans and reclamation projects. 2020/2021 set back that pipeline so we don’t have much to go on yet. There appear to be a number of talented arms on the cusp and in the next year we’ll start to see hard data on their results. I’m skeptical, but I’m giving them that time before taking a strong stance.
  2. Taildragger8791
    Twins really gotta get Berrios to honestly assess whether the can extend him or not. If it’s looking unlikely then the time will never be better to get a haul to help rebuild this team with a new young wave. He’s having a career best season (which is still only a mid-3 ERA) and he’s still young enough and healthy. I’d rather keep him but it would be unbelievably bone-headed to lose him for nothing. This team isn’t competing for a couple more years anyways. Several prospects they need to break in and sort through before they can open another window.
  3. Taildragger8791
    Lots of guys have #1/#2 potential if you focus on their strengths and assume they'll significantly improve their weaknesses. There are a LOT of guys in the minors that can throw hard and have a nasty pitch or two, but they can't put it together into an effective package at the major league level.
  4. Taildragger8791
    Any word on Duran's elbow? That 'elbow strain' suggests inevitable Tommy John when there hasn't been any optimistic details given. What bum luck. Does this franchise do something to pitching prospects or is it just standard procedure now to blow out an elbow before you make the majors?
  5. Taildragger8791
    That's what I'm talking about. Those guys you mentioned plus Lewis & Miranda are about the only promising bats I see in the system, and none of them are a sure bet to play premium defense (TBD on Lewis or Miranda). There's nothing of note below those guys all the way to A ball. On the pitching side there are a few names to be excited about but pitching is such a crapshoot to pan out. I hesitate to count those chickens before they hatch. And again, after those top names there isn't a lot in the system. They need a couple good rounds of drafts and IFA to restock the system or it'll be another prospect deserve like we had a decade ago.
  6. Taildragger8791
    If the Twins are long-term losers after trading Buxton & Berriors, they almost certainly aren't going to be competitive with them anyways. The current prospect crop is pretty shallow and the pipeline is drying up below AA ball. They need almost all of their top prospects to pan out and form a new core because there's isn't another wave coming for at least 4-5 years.
  7. Taildragger8791
    I admit Jose Miranda was not on my radar before this year. His past numbers weren't jumping out but he seems to limit K's and showed a little pop. Is the breakout this year making sense or looking legit? What are the expectations for him? He looks like the only promising bat in the system after Kiriloff, Larnach, and Lewis (who I have Buxton-like concerns about with figuring out his swing...) so it would be huge if he panned out and could hold down the hot corner.
  8. Taildragger8791
    I’m not sure which way I’d predict things would go if someone in March told me that at almost 1/3 of the way into the season, Astudillo is at 3 innings pitched with one of the best ERAs on the team.
  9. Taildragger8791
    Out of curiosity I looked back at an old prospect list, choosing 2014 since I remember a crop of promising players coming up around that time. Out of our top prospects there were several promising pitchers: Alex Meyer, Kohl Stewart, Berrios, Lewis Thorpe (holy cow he's been around a while), Trevor May, Felix Jorge, Stephen Gonsalves, Michael Tonkin, Fernando Romero, and J.T. Chargois. In 2015 guys like Tyler Duffey, Tyler Jay, Taylor Rogers, Jake Reed, Nick Burdi, Huascar Ynoa start showing up on the lists. A lot of these guys looked like sure things to at least make a bullpen or back of a rotation. That AAA to MLB jump is tough.
  10. Taildragger8791
    Not to be overly pessimistic but there are so many times we've said this about a group of prospects, assuming 2-3 out of 5 or 6 have to turn out. Often times only 1-2 of them even sticks in the majors.
  11. Taildragger8791
    Hopefully Duran is just working on some stuff. He's got a bit of a track record with walking guys but it's not quite Alex Meyer levels of concern. Still, I worry about flamethrowers who struggle with command because that seems to be one of the hardest things to improve while maintaining the same effectiveness.
  12. Taildragger8791
    Also can someone get Nick Gordon a steak and a protein shake? The dude looks like he'd spin backwards if he connected on a 100 MPH heater. My nephews weighed more in middle school.
  13. Taildragger8791
    4 rookies plus Garlick in the lineup. Plus another rookie coming in to PH. They're nearly fielding a AAA lineup out there. And I'm not sure they're doing any worse than if the regulars (Buxton excepted) were out there...
  14. Taildragger8791
    A contender would be foolish to pick up Sano for the playoffs. In his 5 postseason games he is 2 for 19 with 9 Ks and a walk. 1 home run. And those numbers aren't just a SSS fluke. He is overmatched against playoff-caliber pitching.
  15. Taildragger8791
    Sano's WAR is back to zero. WPA is negative. It's all sky balls and strikeouts. Can't square up a ball to save his life. The whole batting approach of "swing as hard as possible in case you hit it" is miserable viewing. Blah. /rant
  16. Taildragger8791
    I think he'd probably be affordable and is a solid mid-rotation guy to help you get through a season. Can eat innings without hurting you. I wouldn't count on him to be available >70% of the season or in the postseason however. As long as his contract doesn't restrict you too much then great, sign him.
  17. Taildragger8791
    Any word on what Cavaco is working through? First 8 games were nice but over the next 12 his OPS is .330 with the same brutal strikeout/walk rate he showed in GCL. Not to panic on a kid with so few games under his belt and a missed season, but shouldn't there be a little more of a raw "hit" tool to show? At least in flashes? I guess I expected to see the raw skills show through before adjustments come into play that induce ups & downs over time. How is his defense/baserunning?
  18. Taildragger8791
    SLG asside, his May OBP was .261, walk rate cratered, and strikeout rate regressed back to almost 42%. I don't see how slugging percentage can come close to balancing out those other factors. He helped win a few games with random HRs, but how many games could have changed if he just puts a few balls in play with runners on? So many rallies snuffed out.
  19. Taildragger8791
    K's are a part of the game but a lineup with too many guys like that will be murderous to watch. More solo HRs and runners left on base. More high variance offense where they score 3 or fewer runs, or pile up 8+ runs. Win-loss record isn't fooled by feasting on bad pitchers to pad stats, while famishing against good pitchers that pick apart those hole-filled swings. </rant>
  20. Taildragger8791
    Not sure the commenter was concerned about the quantity of pitching, but rather quality. Pineda and Maeda are both out for a bit and Maeda hasn't been good. Happ and Shoemaker are high risk to throw clunkers. Dobby looked good the other day but he's gotta prove himself a bit.
  21. Taildragger8791
    They are unlikely to be in contention next year anyways. They already need to find 3 new starters next year. If Maeda doesn't fix himself it might be 4. Berrios is closer to a 3 on a true contender if you look around at their rotations. High-3's ERAs don't usually anchor a playoff staff. Then you still have to sign him for 2023 and beyond, where he'll probably ask to be paid like a #1 or #2. He'll be valued more by another team as a strong piece to round out a playoff squad rather than anchoring our rebuilding rotation. Him and Buxton are both greater than 50% odds to be gone in FA in my estimation. With Buck it's more because agreeing on a value for a guy who's always hurt is going to be impossible. So someone will likely swoop in and take the risk to pay him top dollar if he keeps producing.
  22. Taildragger8791
    Any relation to former secretary of defense Donald Rumsfeld?
  23. Taildragger8791
    Refsnyder? The 30 year old with a career .227/.312/.308 slash line? He's more of a "break glass in case of emergency" kind of guy. Unfortunately we've already broken the glass.
  24. Taildragger8791
    Cavaco cooled off a bit and the strikeouts are piling up. Almost 40% K-rate. Hopefully he's working through some adjustments...
  25. Taildragger8791
    These feels like one of those situations where someone is such an outlier that they broke the advanced statistic. It's missing a little context not being position-adjusted. Looks like league-wide wRC+ is 104 & 111 for 1B & DH this year. So still not too far off. But oof-dah that was one heck of a black hole for 3/4 of the season to date just to get to this point.
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