IndianaTwin

Prielipp went on the IL July 9, so he can't return until the 23rd at the earliest. Paredes (or an alternative) will need to make at least one start.

Yeah, an overlooked part of the 2019 Bomba Squad's success was that all but 16 starts were made by a group of five guys, with two more having 11 of those 16 starts. Additionally, 105 of the first 110 games were started by those five. Extreme starter health is a huge advantage, even when two of them are Kyle Gibson and Martin Perez, who were both slightly below average according to OPS+.

Ryan's $13M for next year is a mutual option. I think it's been years since a mutual option was taken by both sides. With the year he is having, Ryan will easily decline his end. With the amount Skubal got as an S3 player, Ryan will be paid significantly above $13M.

I'd love to see them extend Ryan, but I think you are right. Lopez goes into next season with a lot of weight on his needing to have a full injury-free season in order to get a multi-year deal. A one-year extension to guarantee 2028 and give him more time to re-establish himself makes gobs of sense on both sides.

I think the "Joe Ryan wants to leave" stuff comes from the same place as the "Sonny Gray wants to leave" stuff did. They are competitive athletes. They sometimes have a bad day. When they do, they are angry at themselves, and their body language sometimes shows it. They are confident in their abilities, so they are (appropriately) disappointed that they got taken out of the game, because they want to see themselves through it. They are interviewed after a game and in the heat of the moment make a comment like, "I wanted to go after the next guy," which gets taken out of context and magnified on the internet. And then, if something happens a second time, it gets mushroomed even more. Meanwhile, in more settled times, we see Gray make comments about how much he liked being in Minnesota. And recently an article in The Athletic talked about how much Ryan has bought into the team and what it's doing. But because those comments don't happen in the heat of the moment (or on television during a game), people don't pay attention. I'm not sure I'd go as far as you in saying he's a Twin in 2027 PERIOD (though I hope he is, and think it very likely), but when you consider that all the noise about 2026 has come from the outside (looking at you, Bowden and others), I definitely think he's here past August 4.

CBA ends December 1. Expect a flurry of activity before that date. https://www.mlb.com/amp/news/mlb-competitive-balance-issue-explained.html

As was Jhoan Duran…

You had the most expensive bike in the neighborhood and didn’t even know it!

Schmidt was certainly the first guy that came to mind when I was thinking of having someone from each team. Given that Kaat is known to be ambidextrous, having shot his age both when playing golf right-handed and left-handed, and that he played for both teams, maybe he could throw out a ball for each team simultaneously! 😀

Whether right or not, it seems the Face of the Franchise legacy pecking order has been Killebrew, followed by Oliva and then Carew. After that it feels like personal preference from among Kaat, Puckett, Hrbek, Blyleven, Mauer... Whether fair or not, I wonder if Kaat gets penalized in FoF consideration for not having played his entire career with the Twins (witness his number not getting retired until he made the HOF) and that his two best seasons (measured by bWAR) were with Chicago. Carew played with the Angels, of course, but the '73-'77 stint dwarfs anything he did in California. No. 6 is now at the point where his total association with the Twins is nearly long enough to be eligible for Medicare. I'd be glad for any of the living retired uniform people to be included, but for me, it starts with Tony O.

Based on Tom Pohlad's recent comments about investment and fan support (not reported on TD, to my recollection), I suspect they don't trade Jeffers. Being in a pennant (including convincing fans that they are), you don't trade a No. 1 catcher and arguably your second-best hitter. But here's a wondering -- might they actually get as much for Jackson as they would for Caratini? Two years younger, two years of control compared to one, and a lot cheaper.

Plate appearances isn't the right measure in trying to figure whether the Twins used this role any differently than other teams. Take Outman, for example. He only had 70 plate appearances, but actually played in 49 of the 64 games the team had while he was on the roster. He was being used a lot -- slightly over three-fourths of all games. He just wasn't batting*. He averaged only 1.4 plate appearances per game. There's nobody on the team even close to having that few plate appearances per game appearance. Even Jackson and Arcia have more than 2.5 plate appearances per game played. Except Fedko. And what does Fedko have in common with Outman? He played in 14 of the 19 games when he was on the roster, again almost exactly three-fourths of the games. So to answer the question, "Why are the Twins playing with a short roster?," they aren't. Their 13th player has been a defensive specialist that plays in three-fourths of the games, often coming in for Larnach, but sometimes for others. It's an oversimplication, but you could almost say they are platooning. But rather than a lefty/righty platoon, it's an offense/defense platoon. *In more ways than one, but that's not the point of this response.

I wonder if Reds Daily, at the 1975 All-Star Break, had an article questioning why Doug Flynn was getting so little playing time. The Twins don't have Rose, Bench, Morgan, Perez, et al., but the same general principle applies. Maximize the playing time for your best players; minimize the playing time for your weaker players.

Even parts of the City Connect unis have grown on me, but this is the right decision. The next right decision is to include Tony Oliva in the Opening Pitch ceremony. Hopefully Carew and Kaat as well, but it should start with Tony O.

Churning and churning is the right approach for in-season moves (with additional hope for trade deadline pickups). Said another way -- to every bullpen, churn, churn, churn... Realistically, if every month leads to one more guy establishing himself for the 2027 bullpen, it will have been a successful development year. So far, we have Gomez, Morris and I would say Banda. Guys like Sands, Rojas and others still have time to work themselves into position. If the offseason begins with even five or so knowns in the bullpen, it's easy to imagine filling out the group in the offseason.

Who? Even Greg Maddux walked at least 20 in every year resembling a full season. You've "Blyleven" as your moniker. Bert walked at least 44 in every year in which he made 25 starts or more. Even the great Mariano Rivera only had three seasons where he walked fewer than 10.

And the Banda meltdown stretch was three games in eight days, making a person wonder if something was going on in terms of ill health/mechanics/tipping. I agree -- I consider him one of the filled slots for next year, likely at a similar price or slight raise.

Actually, for his career, his OPS has only declined from .742 to .721 from the first half to the second. Last year it actually improved from .742 to .769. This year seems hard to predict since there will be a large gap between the first and second half. I think this year his second half performance will be less affected by fatigue and more affected by whether or not he is fully recovered from the hand injury.

It’s hard to compare Jeffers to these because the Raleigh and Smith contracts each include the buying out of arbitration time. Realmuto and Perez are both past-their-prime contracts that likely come with some sort of hometown discount. In the case of Raleigh, for example, the AAV is only $17.5M, but the three years of free agency that have been bought out are at $24.67M. Those will be for his age 31, 32 and 33 seasons. Similarly, Realmuto received $23.875M in his 31-34 seasons. With Jeffers entering his age 30 season, I think the figures you are coming up with are way too light. I think he would easily get 3/$60M in his age 30, 31, 32 seasons. This also makes me think that a) it is unlikely he would take the QO and b) very likely that he would get the more than $50M in total that gets the higher supplemental pick (unless that is affected by CBA changes). If he would take the QO, I think it would be a very small overpay at most and it would only be for a single year.

Brace yourself for the "Disagrees," because you are going to get them. I sure have when I've broached the idea of a QO on Jeffers. 😀 But you won't get one from me. Again, I don't think it's a slam dunk to give him one, but we're on the same page here as well in at least considering it. Let's say $16M is the "right" amount for a one-year deal on a catcher of Jeffers' ilk. I think it's really hard to have a competitive team without having an overpay somewhere. It's just impossible to get all 26 contracts right. Right now, the Twins don't have any overpays, unless you count the money they are eating on Correa. In fact, they have a bargain in Buxton, a fair-to-bargain deal on Lopez if he comes back healthy, a fair price on Caratini and everyone else on arb or pre-arb contracts. So if you are going to make an overpay to get/keep someone, overpaying $7M for one year on one of the best-hitting catchers in the majors seems like a good place to do it. That's if he takes it. If he doesn't, we don't know what a new CBA will do to the concept of comp picks, but in the current structure, there's a pretty decent chance Jeffers signs elsewhere for more than $50M total. Again, I may be underestimating Jeffers' worth, but I'm not sure a comp pick is much of a downgrade from what they will get for 33 games of him in a trade (see previous note for the explanation on why I say 33 games). I'm not sure they can make the decision to make a QO on Jeffers before the trade deadline, but you also have an interesting point that his saying "yes" would change the calculus on Caratini's (or even Jackson's) availability to other teams in the offseason.

It's easier to quote this one again than to go back to your previous. 😀 But from that one, I also concur that if they are even anywhere close, trading Ryan would be a huge mistake for the reasons you name. And on your last comment in that one about the other guys they might trade being low wattage, I agree there as well. I'd perhaps even put them in the same category as my comments on Jeffers in the previous, where the message it would send by trading really any veteran may not be worth the Single A guy they are going to get for Rogers, Bell, et. al. You mentioned 22 games until the deadline. If they go something like 7-15, maybe I change my tune. But if they are even 9-13 and still within four games or so, I'm rolling the dice on 2026.

Concur. And to circle back to your previous post, which I think is excellent, the sentence I bolded here is part of why I'm not that gung-ho on trading Jeffers. I get the argument about trading him so he doesn't walk away for nothing. But..., I'm not so sure that's still the right thing to do. First, maybe I'm underselling things, but I'm not sure how much they are going to get for Jeffers. The Yankees are public in their desire for a catcher, but most contending teams have their catcher situation in a good spot. That's not to say that Jeffers wouldn't still improve nearly all of them, potentially even by adding him to their DH rotation, but a lot of teams are reluctant to mess with their pitcher/catcher mojo at this point in the season. Additionally, the deadline is a little later this year -- the Twins have only 49 games following August 4. I'm assuming others have similar numbers. Even if he plays two days of three, that's only 33 games. You just don't get as many games out of a new catcher's bat as you do out of a new guy at another position. I get that in a postseason he could conceivably play more than two games out of three, but you also have to get there. So what would the Twins actually get for Jeffers? For high-end relievers with many years of control (Duran, Jax), they got a couple of highly regarded prospects, including one starter that was ready or nearly MLB ready in Bradley and Abel. But I don't see a contending team giving up a controllable reliever that's helping them this year for 33 games of Jeffers. Again, maybe I'm underestimating, but I'm not sure they even get a single top 100 guy for 33 games of Jeffers. And I don't want a AA guy for him -- I want someone who is very likely to help in 2027. Otherwise, roll the dice and play for 2026. Second, though Caratini and Jackson are two good vets (sorta, in Jackson's case), having a veteran catcher like Jeffers also helps in the development of young pitchers such as Bradley, Prielipp, Rojas, Adams, Peredes, Morris... Combine those and it makes me wonder if a) his contribution to pitcher development over the remainder of the season and b) the message to the team, "We're going for it in 2026 by keeping Jeffers," might do more for their 2027 chances than the AA lottery pick they might get for him. Third, if they are serious about trying to bring him back, I think they have a better chance of resigning him by saying, "Dangit, we don't want you to even smell what it's like being in another team's locker room -- we want you with us, giving us a shot and furthering relationships with our young pitchers" than they do by saying, "Good luck in New York, but we'd sure like to have you back if you're open to it." I'll get the logic if they trade him, but I don't think it's a slam dunk to do so.

This is a Bryant thread, but here's some quotes from a Dan Hayes article in The Athletic today: Though Ryan thought he might be traded during the offseason, there were no second thoughts about rejoining the Twins. Once he returned, Ryan was going to make the most of this situation and let it all play out. Thus far, Ryan is starring for the Twins and providing a much-needed ace in the wake of Pablo López’s season-ending injury. But even more than just doing his part on the mound, Ryan has invested in this team both publicly and behind the scenes. ...Ryan would love nothing more than to help convince the front office to add and give this team a chance down the stretch. Adding Sonny Gray and whatever flame-throwing relief pitcher is available would be just fine. The current conversation [about the Twins being buyers] is far more appealing than one where the focus is on potential trade destinations for Ryan — and it’s one he’s helping drive. ------------- There was a narrative on TD that Sonny Gray "wanted out" because he had a couple outbursts in the heat of competition that demonstrated his intense drive. During more mellow times, however, he spoke glowingly about his time with the Twins. Similarly, Ryan's outbursts have been at times when he was communicating confidence in his ability and a desire to stay in the game. The observations from the Hayes article don't sound like they are coming from a player feeling like bridges have been burned. I, too, hope they find a way to get an extension done. FWIW, a 28-year-old Lopez signed a four-year extension when the team still had one year of control. This offseason, Ryan will be a entering his age-31 season with the team still having one year of control. Comparing the two, Lopez had had more sustained success at the time, whereas Ryan has had a higher peak. Potentially, Lopez could have been okay with the four-year extension, knowing he would still be a free agent entering his age 33 season, but I think the two situations have some similarities. If Ryan lets things play out, he takes the risk of going on the market entering his age 32 season, already likely on some level of decline. Some team might throw six or seven years at him, but those are getting less and less common. I really wonder if an extension that buys out his final year and gets him four more at an inflation-adjusted price point similar to Lopez might get it done. (Part of the inflation adjustment is that Skubal's arbitration win this past year could well push Ryan's arbitration ask well above what Lopez had gotten for his last year of control.)

Let's hope for inverted line scores, where the Twins end up with 6 runs, 8 hits and 0 errors and Cleveland ends up with 0 runs, 8 hits and 6 errors, for example.

Thanks. Definitely some intrigue here. With 2027 control, I'd be surprised if Finnegan is available to a division rival. I've liked Vest in the past, but he's been bad this year. I wonder if the Twins would want to give something to a division rival. Weaver was near the top of relievers I would have targeted in the offseason. Ditto on Yates. Yes, please, on both, but particularly on Weaver. I've always liked Minter. Yes, please. Those would be my three biggest targets. Jansen has been inconsistent, but he definitely brings swagger.