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IndianaTwin

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Everything posted by IndianaTwin

  1. IndianaTwin
    Where do you see July on Banda? What I’ve seen has said he’s expected back by the beginning of spring training. It would take quite a delay to push all the way back to July. Unless he’s known to out for a major part of the season, I think he’s a no-brainer. They aren’t going to get a free agent of his caliber at $2.3 million.
  2. IndianaTwin
    Yeah, but if he splits time between 1B and the OF, people will complain about the Twins not putting a guy at a position and letting him stay there. That's sarcasm -- I'm a big fan of positional flexibility. Put me in the camp of those intrigued enough by his past to explore the options. And he's still got an option left, according to Fangraphs.
  3. IndianaTwin
    Two out of their five primary starters this year (admittedly not their best two), plus Foster Griffin, were aquired by trade.
  4. IndianaTwin
    And Bradley, Hoffman, Banda...
  5. IndianaTwin
    The nice thing about doing it with catcher is that it can be done in a gradual way. You can go from being the guy who gets 2/3 of the catcher starts one year and then be the 1/3 guy the next year while getting another 80-90 starts at 1B/DH, followed by being the full-time 1B.
  6. IndianaTwin
    I read that too. I'd go a step further and suggest that means they've already decided to extend the QO. In the context of what they were trying to communicate in the press conference, I don't think they'd put themselves in the position of Tom saying, "Yeah, you can do it if you want to," and then having Zoll later say, "Nah, I don't want to." If the plan is not to make the offer, I think they would have said less on Monday. But hey, I'm not in the meetings and I'm not staying at a Holiday Inn until Saturday.
  7. IndianaTwin
    I agree with you on not being ready to go as far out as five years on Jeffers. That's why I limited that specific comment to the visible nature of a one-year QO. I listed Ryan while internally agreeing with you (I think?) that an extension on Ryan is probably unlikely, largely because it would need to be longer than what I think is prudent. I'd be okay with two or three years if he would take it, but I think that's very doubtful. In my mind, the most viable extension option would be getting Lopez to agree to one more year at a similar price. It's not a long-term commitment on the Twins' side, but I think it makes sense for Lopez as an additional year to demonstrate he's fully back from injury before going back on the market the following year. If he's able to string together even a solid, but abbreviated 2027 and then follow that up with a 2028 that's close to his standards, he's still young enough to get a hefty deal from someone. It also gets the Twins away from the current reality of having exactly one more year of control on him, Lopez, Kremer and Ober.
  8. IndianaTwin
    Thanks, Matthew. I'm willing to believe with you. Trying to set a different tone is actually one of the reasons I think they will (and should) extend the QO to Jeffers. I think it makes sense from a purely baseball stance, since it's only a one-year obligation at a primary position of need at only a modest overpay if he does take it. But the odds of that overpay actually happening seems slim based on what has reported, so they should get the draft pick, etc. When there is a free agent signing, we don't know the full nature of what happens and what is offered. If the team reportedly "comes close" on a big dollar signing, the skeptics will say, "See, they weren't really committed." The QO decision with Jeffers is a concrete way to make a public offer. We will know that the Twins have indeed put a $23M (or whatever) offer on the table to someone. That won't be enough to appease people, but it will be a first (small) step and better than not taking that step. I think a similar visible step would be the announcement of an extension to at least one of Lopez, Ryan or one of the young cohort of Keaschall, Jenkins, etc. Separately, however, I do think the CBA negotiations and likely lockout are going to mess with the ability to be as aggressive as they'd like. That's part of why I think it makes sense to start with the QO and extensions.
  9. IndianaTwin
    Because he has now reached 10 years of service, five with his current team, he effectively has a no-trade clause with the Twins.
  10. IndianaTwin
    Paragraph 2 starts, “Nobody should pretend to be a doctor when discussing a complicated hip surgery.” And then the rest of the article basically analyzes a medical decision without having all of the information…
  11. IndianaTwin
    The Twins don't need to pay Sands $1.3 million to bring him back, do they? It seems pretty easy to say, "Would you like to sign for another $1.1 million again or would you like us to drop you and let you pursue a minor league contract somewhere?"
  12. IndianaTwin
    From MLB Trade Rumors: "(Royce) Lewis has been playing through a shoulder issue for a few weeks now and has mustered only a .151/.179/.189 slash through his past 56 trips to the plate." My journalism profs would have docked me for not having something like this as paragraph two in the OP: "The Twins have not yet announced whose place on the roster active Sabato will take. They also have not yet announced the corresponding 40-man roster move, though a spot could be cleared up by moving Byron Buxton to the 60-day IL."
  13. IndianaTwin
    For whom?
  14. IndianaTwin
    Matthews is listed as the starter for today, followed by Bradley on Tuesday. TBD has been slid back to Wednesday, perhaps for extra rest, though they could also slide Prielipp forward on four-days' rest or go with Ober on two days' rest after having thrown only 31 pitches on Sunday.
  15. IndianaTwin
    I Don't Know. (He's gotten much older and may be ready for a position change.)
  16. IndianaTwin
    You missed what I think is the primary reason they don't trade him.... If you think you are a contender, you don't trade your Opening Day starter!
  17. IndianaTwin
    A) How many people who think they should have traded those two also believe that they would have spent the saved money on two legit players? B) Considering that it takes time to make trades, what legit players would have still been available for signing after the trades?
  18. IndianaTwin
    So you’re saying you don’t think folks on TD would have received well the idea of an $85M payroll? 🤣
  19. IndianaTwin
    I’ve been predicting 4/$80M. MLBTradeRumors seems to agree. They have their annual prediction article of who will receive QOs. After considering Arozerena and Suzuki as locks, they list Jeffers and Brandon Lowe as guys who would “probably be locks if they played for a traditional big spender.” They also say Jeffers “could take aim at a four- or five-year deal” in the $17-$20M AAV range in their discussion of why he is likely to decline the QO. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/09/which-hitters-will-receive-the-qualifying-offer.html So, 4/$80M or 5/$90M is my guess.
  20. IndianaTwin
    Yes I am suggesting their record is better. They are on pace for 76.6 wins. Let's use 76 in recognition that they haven't played as well lately. How many do you think they would have won without the moves Zoll made -- the tinkering early, the trades at the deadline and the positional moves for Lewis, Lee and Keaschall? How many would they have won with the Opening Day bullpen? People are saying, "They are target for 76-77 wins. That's what the projections said." That may be what Vegas projected, but that's not what the collective wisdom of TD was saying. There were lots of folks on TD more or less guaranteeing 90, 95 or even 100 losses, often accompanied by suggesting they would finish last. Where were you on the prediction scale? Yes, they've played worse after the trade deadline than before. I'd argue that has more to do with having a mostly ineffective/absent Buxton and Ryan more than it has to do with carrying Alex Jackson as a third catcher.
  21. IndianaTwin
    Are you suggesting Zoll hasn’t improved the bullpen?
  22. IndianaTwin
    I didn’t go back and look, but I suspect there was a “Should the Twins Extend Royce Lewis?” article after the 2023 season. Many would have been in favor. And Wallner could have been a candidate for a Kepler-level contract. Just a hunch, but I suspect TD would have even more comments about Royce if he was guaranteed, say, $8-$10M for several more years. Or about Wallner if he was guaranteed money in coming years.
  23. IndianaTwin
    Someone notes Contreras above as a comparable who got a five-year deal. The Twins gave Vazquez a three-year deal for his age 32-34 seasons, coming off much weaker seasons than what Jeffers has had. They gave Castro a three-year deal for his age 30-32 seasons, again coming off much weaker seasons Jeffers. Jeffers will get longer and a higher AAV (even inflation adjusted) than either Castro or Vazquez. I think it’s very unlikely there won’t be at least one team offering four years.
  24. IndianaTwin
    Agreed. I think 4/$80M is much closer than a lot of numbers that people have been tossing out. People reference Raleigh's AAV of $17.5M as reason Jeffers won't get paid, but you have to consider that contract includes buying out two years of arbitration. He is going to get paid $24.7M for his age 31-33 seasons, and is well on his way to having his age 34 season vested at $20M. Assuming it vests, Raleigh will get 4/$94M for his age 31-34 seasons. Jeffers is entering his age 30 season and has two years of salary inflation to add to the conversation. And to add, Raleigh's experience is an example of why I don't think Jeffers would accept an overpay of just several million for one year to take the QO. Raleigh would be getting significantly less if he was negotiating this offseason compared to when he did. This is Jeffers' best opportunity for guaranteed long-term money.
  25. IndianaTwin
    An understanding that he wants to test free agency is an argument FOR offering the QO.
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