IndianaTwin

As the one who added “and Romo and Clippard” to tarheeltwinsfan’s post, I’ll take a shot. To me it’s the cumulative effect of adding four veteran starters and two veteran relievers — all of whom I think have good likelihoods of being anywhere from above-average to well-above average — to a Nov. 1 roster that had only Berrios, four or so guys with something like a dozen combined career starts, and a solid, but still fairly inexperienced bullpen. The roster on Jan. 10 looks a heck of a lot better to me than the one on Nov. 1. Another way I would phrase that is that I’ve tried to view it as adding “impact pitchING,” whereas it’s felt like many have focused on adding an “impact pitchER.” I would rather the possibility of an eventual rotation of Berrios-Odo-Pineda-Bailey-Hill, with Dobnak-Smeltzer-Thorpe-Graterol as my 6-9, than have a rotation of Cole-Berrios-Dobnak-Smeltzer-Thorpe, with Graterol and I’m not sure who else as my 6-9. Now, that said, I think they can still do more, and I’d love to see them do that. That’s why I also posted that I don’t think it’s fair to evaluate the entire offseason on Jan. 10. So for example, I’ve thought about starting a post noting that minor league signings seem to be starting. Some guys who may have thought they were going to get a major league deal are still out there. I can think of Alex Wood, Drew Smyly, Felix Hernandez, Clay Buchholz, Danny Salazar, and Taijuan Walker. I haven’t taken the time to evaluate them closely, but I’m assuming the front office has. If they do their homework and can pull off signing the best one or two of them to a minor league contract with incentive-based bonuses, I could support that. Even if one of those guys only pulls a Martin Perez and is top-notch for eight starts (i.e. until Pineda returns), that would be a bonus. And with the return of Pineda and the presence of Dobnak-Smeltzer-Thorpe-Graterol, I’d like to think that the front office would be much more likely to pull the plug if one or more of the latter guys is lights-out in Rochester and said minor-league-contract-guy turns into August/September Perez. Similarly, with only Berrios, Odo, Bailey as vets on opening day, I’d also love to see them pull off a smart trade. Folks perceive that we don’t trade any prospects, but I keep pointing back to the February trade of a Single-A shortstop for Odo as one of their biggest wins so far. With their penchant for value, that’s the type of trade I think we’re most likely to see — what another team views as a lottery pick for an under-the-radar guy that our front offices perceives as under-valued. Probably more than you asked for, Oxtung, but that’s where I’m coming from.

That’s how I read it.

Okay, I can accept disagreeIng with the statement that the offseason can’t be judged until the end of the season. But I can’t agree with calling the offseason a failure with more than two and a half months until opening day.

Edited for you.

Yes. Has anyone counted to see if they do it more frequently than other teams? It sure seems to be the case.

I was just thinking of Romero the other day, perhaps when I saw that Adalberto Mejia got DFAed this week for the fifth time in five months. Ah, the names we remember. What's up with Mark Funderburk these days? I know Romero was used exclusively as a reliever this past year, but given where we are at and that pretty much every pitcher starts spring training by only throwing an inning at a time, I hope he's still at least on the preseason Jim Kaat Award Watch list. Or at least still on the marker board in Wes' office. The chances are minute, and he's way behind the Dobnaks of the world at this point, but let's at least keep the option open to strike lightning in a bottle with a fresh start. As you note, there was a time he was highly regarded, and he's still pretty young.

Right, but what I'm asking is whether this is saying that Sano performed at a level where we missed out on approximately five outs over the course of the season compared to if we had an average 3B there? Or that he missed about 12 outs compared to having Marwin there? I recognize that it doesn't identify which specific outs he cost us over the course of the season. I'm just saying that costing us an average of less than one out per month compared to the average 3B doesn't seem like much of a cost to have a monster hitter there. I don't know if this is an accurate way to think about it, but if 4.5 earned runs over 27 outs converts to about 0.83 runs per 5 outs, that's not much.

We clearly have “impact” owners and moderators. Thank you, everyone, for the wonderful community that is great to be part of.

Is OAA a season’s total? What does It translate to in terms of runs? And even wins? For example, does this mean Sano’s -5 gives up a little less than an out per month? If that’s accurate, when I think of it that way, that doesn’t seem like much to be overly worried about. Sure, that theoretical out might open the floodgates for a four-run inning that costs the game, but if It happens when they’re up 6-0 and May strikes out the next guy to end the inning, that’s minimal effect. I wouldn’t want to sacrifice much offense anywhere for that degree of poor defense.

Oh, and from your earlier thread, I’m also on board with extensions for Sano, Rogers, Buxton, and Rosario, probably in that order of interest (and Sano the first by a long shot). I don’t have a good sense on what their numbers ought to be.

I agree that Odorizzi is interesting. A number of folks have named that he may be kicking himself for taking the QO given how contracts have gone. When he signed, he talked openly about having another shot next winter, but he also named an interest in an extension. In an earlier thread, I said that I hoped the message to him was “We’re going to give you the QO because we do want you. We’d like to give you a 3-year deal, but we also are hoping to get some other impact pitching (sorry, I couldn’t resist). Once the market has settled out, we’d like to come back and open the conversation about an extension.” I’d like to think that openness and honesty can be part of good negotiations, and I’d like to think that Odo is smart enough to know the business and can understand and appreciate that approach. Who knows? On Berrios, I don’t have a good sense of what arbitration progressions look like. But MLBTR is predicting $5.4 million in this, his first year. I didn’t see great comparisons among others, but they project Eduardo Rodriguez at $9.5 million and Noah Syndergaard at $9.9 million in their second year. The best starter I could find in his third year is Marcus Stroman, but that was only $11.8 million. So given those, if something like $5MM-$10MM-$15MM makes sense as a three-year progression, would he consider the 4/$60MM you named above, knowing that he’d still be hitting free agency at age 30 (at least under this CBA — who knows how that could change?)? Maybe we could structure it as $12MM-$14MM-$16MM-$18MM and include an option year at $20MM? I named Moreland and Price primarily because they’ve been named by others. I don’t have particular thoughts on them, other than to say they are examples — a cheap 1B and a salary-dump pitcher. I think you’re about right on the maximum the Twins would want to pay on Price. Wood would be at the top of my list as well, but there are a couple of other names that could be even more of a flyer. Taijuan Walker, Danny Salazar, Clay Buchholz, and Felix Hernandez are all guys that I wouldn’t mind bringing to camp on a minor-league contract, with incentive-based contracts for if they make the team. Maybe even Shelby Miller? I think those guys are all still available, unless I missed a signing somewhere. Even if Buchholz makes it eight starts before this year’s injury, he will have covered the Pineda suspension. Overall, I’m not adamantly opposed to Donaldson. I just tend to be a guy who likes to spread risk out over a larger number of players.

I think he’s talking about the lack of longevity on the front end, since his first homer didn’t come until age 26. He’s only had 11 seasons so far where he’s been over 100 games. To use Andruw Jones as someone on the opposite end of the spectrum, by the time he was 26, he had 226 homers. Give Cruz that kind of a start and we’d be having an entirely different discussion.

Yikes — thanks for summarizing these stats. I thought he ended up with above-average numbers, but I didn’t realize there were so many top 30s! It’s important that we don’t look at the 105 games and extrapolate that to having 50 percent more in each category. He actually only missed a quarter of the season. But even having a third more games to work with could lead to some impressive numbers. And I’m still not convinced that he can’t become at least an average defender if he puts in the work on that side of the ball that he seemed to put on conditioning and working with Cruz last year. He’s still got a great arm, and he comes in on the ball really well. The biggest challenge is lateral movement, but with more and more emphasis on positioning and shifts, that may lessen the effect of that weakness. Lateral movement is still important, but I’m not sure that it’s the be all and end all that it’s often been seen as in the past.

Off the top of my head, with the $25 million you’re allocating to Donaldson, I’d... use about $3 million to front load a contract that turns Odorizzi into $54 million over 3 years.use another good-sized chunk to sign Berrios to a deal that buys out at least one year of free agency. I think it’s going to be tough to buy out a large number of years, but maybe he’d go for one year of free agency in exchange for big raises the next three years.use a few million on Moreland.consider taking on some of the cost in someone’s salary dump trade for pitching (Price is a guy that’s been named, but there’s probably others).start exploring guys on minor league contracts, but hang on to them this time rather than dropping them like we did Anibal Sanchez. Or some combination thereof.

As noted, I’m not high on the thought of trading for Bryant, but that is an interesting solution for teams that are.

Welcome to the site. It’s beyond “reasonably cool” because the moderators do such a great job keeping people on topic and making sure that it remains a civil place for great discussion among people who contribute good insights. So what’s your view on Bryant vs. Donaldson? Mine would be Donaldson, but I mainly agree with the group that says if we’re thinking about trading prospects, let’s do it for pitchers.

I tend to be a Bigger Hall guy, and I hate it when people say that someone only belongs in the “Hall of Very Good.” But in those terms, unfortunately, I’d have to say he’s a better fit for the “Hall of Pretty Good.” Even if he played another three years and got to 500 homers, he’d then move into the “played most of his games as a DH” and have that as a strike against him. My hunch is he’ll get 8-10 percent his first year and then fall off the ballot in a couple years. But don’t get me wrong — I’ll gladly have him bat cleanup for us this year. And thanks for the article. HOF articles are often fun reads.

Can you pitch? Are you impactful? Lefty or righty?

Interesting thought on being an opener. In 57 career starts, his OPS allowed is .689.

Berrios Pineda + any of the rookies who have emerged.

To clarify, the $800K is not guaranteed, per this article: https://www.camdenchat.com/2019/12/29/21041435/orioles-news-kohl-stewart-contract "MASN’s Roch Kubatko reported that Stewart is receiving a split contract from the O’s, which will pay him $800,000 if he is on the MLB team. That means that the Orioles will be able to option Stewart to the minors and keep him there for either depth or development purposes."

You know the part where they talk about “sustainable”? In that scenario, I don’t think you generally promote a guy to the majors with 5.1 innings of AAA under his belt and only 52 innings of AA (including just nine starts). The Santana comparison isn’t really accurate — he was in the majors because he had to be. And the scenario you’re describing, TopGunn, was actually his THIRD season. In his first season (2000), he only started five games, three in April and two in September. And he got rocked — 24 runs in 22 innings. The vast majority of his innings came in blowout losses — they were 2-28 in games in which he pitched. In 2001, things he generally pitched low-leverage relief, then made four starts in June/July and went on the DL for the rest of the year before pitching an inning in September. The relief outings were generally in blowouts (they were 2-9 in his games). They won all four of his starts, but not because of him — 15 runs in 19.2 innings. His only decision on the year was in his one decent start, when he gave up 2 runs in 5 innings and left with an 8-2. In 2002, he made great contributions, but he had actually started the season in AAA and didn’t come up until May 31. It was his third season. Even if the Twins don’t come up with another starter (and I think they will still get one or even two), the 3-5 starters would be Dobnak, Stashak, and Thorpe, each of whom has significantly more innings at AAA. And assuming health, one would get sent down after 8 starts when Pineda returns. Between guys being ahead of him in the pecking order and what is shaping up as a deep bullpen, I don’t think there’s any way a 21-year-old with 5.1 AAA innings starts the season in Minnesota, let alone in the rotation. I could see him pitching impact innings, but not before mid-season. Elsewhere, I outlined a scenario where he targets about 130 innings. Assume about 18 starts averaging 5 innings in Rochester, which gets to about mid-July. At that point, MLB needs and his performance determines whether you bring him up for up to 40 innings of MLB relief or leave him in Rochester to get the remaining 40. If it lines up to cover a need, he could potentially be brought up to be the 27th man in a DH, but that’s about it. I wouldn’t even be surprised if the first half dozen or so of the starts came in AA.

I liked this $2.75MM move when it was announced. I like it even more now when I see that Betances just signed for $10.5MM. I didn't catch that anyone pointed out this tidbit, but I read somewhere that Clippard is the only reliever to have thrown at least 60 innings in each of the past 10 seasons (and in his case, it's actually 11). Not a one of those seasons had a WHIP above 1.30, and only one had a K/9 under 9.

I think Perez was an okay option coming off a 78-win season. Like you, I'd like to shoot higher coming off a 101-win season. That said, through his first eight starts last year, a lot of us were thinking we may have struck lightning in a bottle with Perez. Then came June, and we kept running him out there to the point of ending up with 29 starts. So while I'd like to shoot higher this year, the bigger key may be in having a shorter leash. Last year, when Perez started to stink up the place, we didn't have other options. This year, I'd like to think that starters 6-8 are much further along than they were last year.

I'm not sure I'll buy this one, though. My point is that most people seem to have defined "impact" as getting the big-time stud. Note the number of "giving Odo a QO (or signing Pineda) is okay if it's the second-best signing of the winter" comments. My point is that when the FO makes the "impact pitching" comment at a point when all you've got is Berrios and a batch of rookies in the starting rotation and a youngish, though promising bullpen, I measure getting "impact pitching" as the cumulative of the off-season moves. That's particularly how you fill Nos. 2-5, but also how you improve the bullpen. So far, I've seen additions of Odo, Pineda, Romo, and Clippard. I hope they aren't done, because I really would prefer to see two veterans added so that Dobnak/Smeltzer et al. would be fighting for the Pineda suspension starts and then to stay in the rotation. So in the context of this winter, I'd feel pretty good about still getting a .1 bWAR from 2019 coming off of 3.5 and 3.1 from the two previous years, with a four-year average of 167 innings, particularly if all it cost me was a Class A SS. That guy might indeed turn in a 1.5 bWAR, but he could also turn in a 3.6, so let's split the difference and call it 2.5, or even the 2.2 Odo had averaged his last three seasons in TB. I'd feel even better if they got two of them! With a winter that nets Odo, Pineda, Romo, Clippard and two veteran starters who get 2.2-2.5 bWARs, I'd definitely consider that getting "impact pitching."