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Doomtints

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Everything posted by Doomtints

  1. Doomtints
    OK, then let's go this way. 1) Kyle Schwarber only lead off once this year, he typically bats 5th or 6th. 2) Kris Bryant does indeed bat 2nd often (though usually he bats 3rd). I have no problem with that with his high OBP. Don't use secondary sources, look at the data. Schwarber isn't the leadoff hitter for the Cubs.
  2. Doomtints
    1) At the moment, the worst starter on the Cubs has an OPS better than six of the Twins starters. With the talent the Cubs have they have to be considered an exception. Anyone can find an exception to any rule. Find me a team with a similar talent level to the Twins, but with a better record, and we'll talk about it. 2) You want high OBP players batting higher in the order, generally. Did you look up Bryant's OBP? 3) Why would you cite articles instead of looking at the source data? Secondary sources are rubbish, and it's not like it's hard to find baseball stats.
  3. Doomtints
    I don't think he's "terrible" but I think he doesn't fully understand the job. If you want a concrete example, can you name any other team that used their power bat to lead off? And not just for a while, but for years? Even when he has a player on the team with a proven high OBP? If fans will buy into the idea that pitch framing -- getting 1 extra ball/strikes call a week go their way -- will amount to many more wins on the table, why wouldn't fans buy into more wins coming when a home run king is batting in a spot when people might be on base? How many losses did the Twins have when Dozier was the hottest?
  4. Doomtints
    Read "Three Nights in August" and you'll learn everything that a good manager does (in incredible detail), and what Molitor probably doesn't do. It covers what baseball managers do (or should do) in minute detail to prepare for an opponent, to understand his players, and to win a game or two.
  5. Doomtints
    He's not as good after the Twins traded away a lot of players and gave up on the season. I am SHOCKED.
  6. Doomtints
    CONGRATS TO JO MAURAER FOR PASSING RAJ CASHEW FOR ALL TIME BASE SMACKERS
  7. Doomtints
    It's a strange comparison in my opinion. Mauer is not a Gold Glove at 1B and Austin won't compete with Mauer at 1B.
  8. Doomtints
    Mauer is all but gone. Who is a better option?
  9. Doomtints
    Mauer wasn't perfect right out of the gate at 1B either. Austin's -5.5 UZR/150 matches Mauer's -5.7 UZR/150 in 2012 with nearly identical innings played at 1B (so far), 258 v. 260. Mauer didn't become a really good defender at 1B until last year, in his 4th year of having the job full time.
  10. Doomtints
    The numbers I showed imply that, yes, he can play well. Approximately 1/3 of the time.
  11. Doomtints
    That's three years ago. Are you really saying he can do what he did at age 28 when he is 32?
  12. Doomtints
    Forsythe has an impressive run going, with an .850 OPS in August. Has Forsythe ever done this before? Yes. Months with 1.000+ OPS: 1 (2016) .900 - 1.000 OPS: 2 (last time in 2016) .800 - .900 OPS: 4 (not including current month, last time in 2016) .700 - .800 OPS: 12 (last time in 2017) .600 - .700 OPS: 10 (last time in 2018) Under .600 OPS: 14 (last time in 2018) He's pretty bottom heavy if you look at this way and the trend is downward. Other ways to slice it: Productive months, including this month (OPS .700+): 19 Unproductive months: (OPS .700-): 24 Productive months in past 2 years/3 years (including current month): 4/7 Unproductive months in past 2 years/3 years: 7/10 Ideally a "productive month" would be more like a .725 OPS or higher, but I'm not going to slice the data again, .700 is close enough for a discussion board. Verdict: Forsythe can be good from time to time but overall he is a net negative. His SO/W ratio is terrible so he should not work from the bench, as the Dodgers have learned. He peaked 3 years ago right at age 28 as would be expected. Trade if possible, do not offer contract for next year. As he is hot right now he could be useful to a contender looking for a short-term infielder, but on the Twins he is just a placeholder. "Small sample size" is a cliche. Luckily we have a huge sample with Forsythe and we can dismiss the small sample from his time in a Twins uniform.
  13. Doomtints
    Austin has an .833 OPS against RH starting pitching, which is better than his hitting against LH starters. He struggles against RH relievers, probably because RH relievers tend to throw harder. *If* Molitor sat him for this reason, it would be another example of Molitor almost getting it, but not quite, and ultimately making the wrong decision. A better decision would be to have Austin start the game and use a PH later in the game if a RH reliever comes in and the game is close....
  14. Doomtints
    The pattern with Molitor is that he *almost* gets it, but never quite completely. The mistakes he makes are pretty stupid mistakes. A good comparison is Mike Tice, only worse. Mike Tice made every mistake one could possibly make, but unlike Molitor, Tice made his mistakes once. Molitor doesn't see his mistakes and keeps on doing them. Molitor might be the Terry Ryan of managers. He succeeds on the small things, doing just well enough to keep his job and keep people thinking about "What if we just give him one more chance...." I give him an F because as long as Molitor is filling out lineup cards, mentoring players, and managing pitching, the Twins are missing out on having a manager who can do all these things properly. In real life, you either pass or you fail, no one hands out Cs and Ds when you don't get the job done and don't learn from your mistakes.
  15. Doomtints
    Jake Cave has been astounding, but I keep reading: - He's too old (he's 25) - He's a platoon bat only - He'll never be a starter - Cave only looks good to the Twins because the Twins suck Fine, he strikes out too much. Rookies always do. Just curious -- if you are against Jake Cave, were you also one of the many people who railed on Rosario until this year? Or Dozier before his power surge? For the record, this was most of you! Follow up question: Why do people get stars in their eyes for people like Kepler and Morrison but look down their noses at players who actually look like they can be special once they work through their rookie years? I *want* my rookies to swing at the ball and strike out. It's a part of learning about the pitchers they face. You will never hit the ball with the bat on your shoulder all the time. Swing the damn bat, figure out what you can do against MLB pitching. If your OPS is staying over .700 as a rookie, you're doing great and you're only going to get better. If it's .793 like Cave, WOW. Rookies who start out boring and methodical have careers that are largely boring and methodical. You should only be methodical after you have experience in what you're doing, especially in a competitive sport.
  16. Doomtints
    Gonsalves said he was too nervous to pitch. The Twins really gotta think about easing new pitchers in by having them pitch their first inning out of the bullpen. Calling them up for these one-off starts whenever the schedule is wonky or a starter's arm falls off is too abrupt of a change and too much to ask for. If you ever have money to bet on a game, just watch for the Twins doubleheaders or makeup games. Molitor will call up someone from AAA to pitch every time.
  17. Doomtints
    Fair enough. Thank you.
  18. Doomtints
    I don't think the article is inherently helpful here. It's too generic. "Most people don't know they have this, most people have no pain," etc., doesn't apply here. He knew he had it and was in pain and couldn't play baseball because of the pain....
  19. Doomtints
    What Dozier was for the Twins this year = What Forsythe would be for the Twins next year. I'm not against bringing him back, but hopefully the Twins explore other options first.
  20. Doomtints
    1) Max Kepler hasn't been bad. 2) All 3 of Kepler's seasons in the majors are of similar caliber, he has been the same player for 3 years. 3) He was in the minors for the maximum amount of time. He's been playing professional ball long enough to know who he is. (Anything at A+ and above is considered professional baseball.) I don't think Kepler is going to get much better, except possibly on defense. But he's also not bad, so big deal. The Twins are paying him the minimum they can and he has been worth $10M - $15M a year. Where's the problem? Should this thread have really been titled "Will Max Kepler ever be an All-Star?" Probably not. So what? He is a contributor. He's at the same level as Greg Gagne (87), Randy Bush (87), Roy Smalley (87), Gene Larkin (87, 91).... All solid contributors to world series winning teams.
  21. Doomtints
    Did his delivery change? If not, why was he missing bats before if this is as obvious as A-Rod says?
  22. Doomtints
    No, it's because Gibson skipped Rookie ball and debuted at A+. The Twins were rushing him.
  23. Doomtints
    Stewart only has 45 innings at AAA. Gibson logged OVER 200 INNINGS at AAA before playing for the Twins.
  24. Doomtints
    I'm skeptical that Morrison was injured "all season" without any of us hearing about it at any time. Was there any point in the past six months that a journalist asked him how he was feeling? I'd love to know his response. If he was injured all year, the Twins gave up the opportunity cost of having someone in his place who would have almost certainly hit better... Vargas or any number of other guys at AAA. Seems like a strange choice for an organization to make for a guy who clearly can't play.
  25. Doomtints
    Stewart played well. That last inning there got out of hand quickly but it was his first game. Don't listen to any 'experts' around here who are saying he is cooked, he sucks, he'll never make it, etc.
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