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Doomtints

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Everything posted by Doomtints

  1. Doomtints
    Look up "security theater" on wikipedia. If you LOOK like you are doing things to be more secure, that itself can be a deterrent.
  2. Doomtints
    Revision: Sano, Buxton and Castro for Bryant.
  3. Doomtints
    Pulling a coach from the college ranks is unprecedented and risky. I'm glad they are thinking outside the box, but this is like making an intern a VP. Very risky.
  4. Doomtints
    Want a big splash? Sano, Buxton, and Kepler for Kris Bryant.
  5. Doomtints
    May's 2018 sample size is too small to draw any conclusions. I see a few things to consider: - His inherited runners scored % sat at 44%. Not good. This an important stat for relievers, in my opinion. It's one of the primary reasons relievers exist. - I would like to know his first batter efficiency rate, also key to any reliever. Anyone got it? - His swinging strike % is 15%. He throws strikes 65% of the time. Most hits off of him go to the outfield. He needs a good outfield defense, which the Twins should still have next year. But what if hitters adjust and start hitting grounders off of him and the Twins pick up offense instead of defense in the infield this winter? - His lone appearance as an opener was a disaster. If the Twins are going to keep playing with openers, he's not an option. This diminishes his value IF the team continues to use openers. Using an opener in theory means using fewer relievers in later innings. - His command was much better last year, but he has a long track record of wild pitches that he has to account for. Will his command issues recur during high leverage situations? As I said, last year was a small sample size, but in spite of the nice ERA and the Ks, there are things he has to work on to be a good reliever and we still don't know how the Twins will look next year.
  6. Doomtints
    Jorge De La Rosa could probably be a closer and he would cost about two million. Even if the Twins don't have him close games, they should pick him up. He hits 93+.
  7. Doomtints
    Back to the OP ... it's nice to finally see some turnover on the prospect lists. Lots of newer names.
  8. Doomtints
    First inning scoring is far more pronounced in the NL. In the AL, more runs are scored in the 4th, 5th, and 6th innings (with 6th being the highest) than in the 1st. The third inning is no walk in the park either. So what's the advantage for a 1-inning opener if the 4th-6th are all brutal? All of those innings are tough. And assuming this pushes scoring back an inning (I doubt it does), what's the cost of having more scoring in the 7th just to have less scoring in the 3rd? Is it tougher for a team to come back from being behind later in the game? Furthermore, apart from the 9th, the fewest runs are scored in the 2nd. Why not keep the opener in for one more inning and bring in a fresh arm when the game starts to get interesting in the 3rd? Finally, is the first inning scoring due to the pitcher still loosening up, or is it because of the hitting? If it's because the pitcher is loosening up, what's the ramification of the "opener" having to loosen up followed by the starter having to do the same thing in a later inning? But still we're generalizing. If one particular starter is lights out in the 1st like clockwork, why would you not have him start? Or if the starter can go 7 innings regularly? Why wouldn't we tailor this for each player? Good managers know how to play the matchups, not generalize.
  9. Doomtints
    In the AL, the bats you really have to worry about should be 3-5 in the lineup. Assuming even a good game for the pitcher has a couple of hits go by, the pitcher is facing the meat and potatoes of the opposing lineup almost exactly in the "opener" scenario in his third inning. The NL is different and the best hitters move up a slot (2-4), but pitching has to be managed differently in the NL and an opener is a hard sell there too. "Sequencing" is a bad concept for baseball, and the opener concept is just another "perfect world" sequencing scenario. Assuming a no hitter/perfect game, what's the optimal way to get your pitcher through the opposing team's lineup? That's what the opener concept is all about, and it's nonsense. In an actual perfect game, you want your starter in there from the first out. Why not use real data? E.g., this pitcher allows 5 hits on average through the first three innings. Should *this* pitcher start the game or come in later? When? From the baseball business standpoint, the opener concept will boost the W stat for most decent pitchers. This will increase trade value, with the counterpoint being it will also make the pitchers more expensive to retain.
  10. Doomtints
    WAR is goofy and it hides too much important information. It only takes a couple of seconds to a couple of minutes to figure out what "sticks out" about a player, be it positive or negative. You can't do this with WAR. What makes it worse is there are different algorithms. Baseball Prospectus's WAR(P) seems like utter nonsense, and Fangraphs' WAR seems inflated 30-40% of the time. Baseball Reference's WAR is the most consistent, though it slightly understates player value in my opinion. But even then, bWAR usually the last stat I look at when I'm analyzing a player....
  11. Doomtints
    I am disappointed that he finished the letter with "All the best" instead of "See you in the funny papers."
  12. Doomtints
    It was serious enough to where building a new stadium in NC was put on the ballot. Even if you doubt the team would move, contraction was a real possibility. It was stupid, yes, but it was possible.
  13. Doomtints
    Note the BA article quoted is from a year ago. I think commingling the AL/NL would be pretty strange. I would also worry that the proposed regional division alignments would hurt revenue for some small teams.
  14. Doomtints
    Yes. That's not his "floor" though. I would say this scenario is more probable than his "floor" which is what I mentioned. As you say, he could be an AAAA-level guy who gets called up as a short term defensive injury replacement for some team (probably not the Twins), but not if he continues his 5 OPS+ trend.
  15. Doomtints
    Buxton's floor is off the Twins in a year and out of baseball in two or three.
  16. Doomtints
    Buxton's 2018 performance would be career ending for 95% of baseball players. We have to keep that in perspective. I still believe he can be a good player, but another year like this one and he's done. Another below average year and it's time to adjust our expectations.
  17. Doomtints
    Boras wasn't really picking on the Twins. He did a short bit where he told similar jokes about other teams. It's not a big deal. He was just warming up the crowd by telling baseball jokes that EVERYONE in the room could understand... Yes, anyone could have told that joke.
  18. Doomtints
    Sano has time to turn things around. He really just had one bad year, and it was bad enough that if he is going to have a wake-up call, this would be it. I still say he shouldn't be playing defense. We'll see if the new skipper agrees. Buxton should be a far bigger concern. Buxton's performance last year would have been career ending for 95% of players.
  19. Doomtints
    I know.
  20. Doomtints
    And although Houston is a big city ... baseball actually considers Houston to be a "small market" team!
  21. Doomtints
    I feel like the 51% thing was said ten years ago and when Big Pohlad was still running the team. Has this been said since then? I don't know what the operational costs for the team are, but the Twins organization has a LOT of employees. Only the Twins could say if 51% is sustainable for them. But ... employee wages are 100% tax deductible ... what is the tax burden for professional sports teams? I'm sure the Twins are smart enough to pay at least what their tax burden is in wages. If not...ugh. The younger Pohlad complained a bit about being harassed by the IRS after his father's death. One thing to note is that if you pay very low wages, the IRS will harass you! I worked at a company where the owner was taking in 88% profit (insane!) and we kept getting letters from the IRS wanting to prove we were paying such low wages to our workers. The wage audits came in every quarter, the IRS was never satisfied. They were clearly wanting to change the owner's behavior (he sold the company instead). The audits weren't a burden on him anyway, it was other people who had to do them....
  22. Doomtints
    There were some pretty angry people this season when the Twins sold at the trade deadline because we raised our expectations. Let's try to not get upset when they don't spend $140-$150M!
  23. Doomtints
    The Twins got the best years of Young's career so Twins fans don't have a lot to complain about there. He wasn't good before the Twins and he wasn't good after, but as a member of the Twins he was OK until that last season when he wasn't alone in throwing in the towel.
  24. Doomtints
    Only one player at each position (except OF) gets the gold glove. Was Mauer ever "the best" defender at 1B? Of course not. Besides, Dozier was gifted a gold glove last year. The panel wasn't going to gift two Twins infielders at the same time barring some amazing double play stat going on (in which case the award wouldn't be a 'gift'.) Having said all that, the Gold Glove is (mostly) a popularity contest and the award doesn't mean a lot these days anyway. The Platinum Glove is something to be proud of, though.
  25. Doomtints
    Pohlad has soft spots for people and this negatively affects the team. We got stuck with Molitor because Pohlad wanted to be nice to him, now we might end up with a Joe Mauer who can no longer hit. If the sum universe of available first basemen is zero, sure, keep Mauer for another year. If all of the other middling hitters are traded and Mauer is the sole mediocre hitter left, sure, keep him for another year. The Twins are in a unique place financially to make upgrades right now. If they build around Mauer for a year just to be nice they making their job for 2020 onward all the more difficult.
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