Doomtints
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Everything posted by Doomtints
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August was Mauer's best month since May of 2013. Benching him now seems ridiculous. If he is injured as you say then he needs to be on the DL. I haven't heard about him being injured, however.
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Ideally you would put Dozier further down where his bat can do more damage. Unfortunately he doesn't perform as well further down the lineup. Buxton can't be the leadoff guy until he can get on base consistently. Grossman still has the best OBP on the team with Mauer close behind. But Mauer did not perform well as the leadoff hitter, and the Twins (and Twins fans too) keep finding reasons to justify keeping Grossman's bat out of the lineup. This means you have to keep Dozier batting first as he's next on the OBP list. So: 1 Dozier 2 Mauer/Grossman 3 Kepler/Sano 4 Kepler/Sano 5 Plouffe/Rosario 6 Plouffe/Rosario 7 Suzuki/Escobar 8 Escobar/Murphy 9 Buxton I don't keep up with the lineup cards but this looks fairly similar to what the Twins are already doing. This also doesn't address the September call ups at all. Vargas, for example, should be in the middle of the lineup on days he plays.
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He is talking about the person who "bats leadoff" or the #1 person in the batting order. Of the entire history of baseball -- this theory is only off as far as predicting runs scored by 4%. That's incredible.
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Orlando Hudson was let go a year before Ryan came back. Which players on this roster were still with the team after 2013? 2012? http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/2011-roster.shtml
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I'm not "arguing with you" ... I simply think you are letting your feelings of Ryan get ahead of the facts. We are both glad Ryan is gone, it seems.
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He didn't do a great job his first time around. In the 90s it was the same story, he let a lot of veterans go and had no viable plan to replace them. The Twins got good in the 00s because the PLAYERS decided they weren't going to take it anymore, largely because of the contraction talks you mentioned. He also scored well with the Pierzynski trade and nailed down a great closer. What you mentioned about "holding onto veterans for dear life" is false. Take a look at what Johan Santana said as he was going out the door.
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"The largest variable determining how many runs a team will score is how many times they get their leadoff man on base." -- Bill James I'm unaware of any credible research that suggests that Bill James is wrong. About anything, actually.
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Lots of cherry picking of facts here. Ryan let go of nearly every veteran the team had within the first couple of years of him getting his job back. In retrospect it really looks like this was done to be snotty towards the previous GM than it was anything else, because Ryan had no plan to replace anybody. He claims he had to reign in spending but the owner says that was never the case, and now the Twins find themselves spending just as much anyway but with a worse roster than when he started "cutting"! As you can gather I'm not a huge Ryan fan either, and I understand there was a lot of venting on your post. Even still, I don't think your characterization of Ryan as a villian is correct. I think Ryan was allowed to do whatever he wanted to do, which (again, in retrospect) seems like that consisted largely of long vacations and not really paying much attention.
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Depends on the player, but yeah Dozier isn't a guy who can carry the team. A good comp here is Pierzynski/Mauer. Pierzynski was a good player for his position. The Twins moved him because they had a better player coming up in the same position. The Twins cleaned up and had a nice run. Pierzynski went on and had a great career, too. The Twins have the same opportunity with Dozier/Polanco. If the new front office does not make this move it is not a good sign.
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- brian dozier
- jorge polanco
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The majority of Twins fans seemed to underestimate Dozier at the beginning, calling his first season a "fluke" and predicting a "regression." His power was no mirage and he proved the naysayers wrong. My opinion on Dozier is that he is a solid guy to build a team around. He never seemed like a "leader" in that he's not the guy you need to lift up young guys. But he is a good, dependable player who has a lot of power. Dozier is a great contributor but not a leader. On the right team with the right lineup he is an extremely dangerous hitter. On a team not filled with such players, maybe not so much ... as his three home runs in a 5-run loss yesterday can attest. Let's be realistic, though. As far as his power goes, this is probably his peak year. Waiting in the wings, we have Polanco. I am extremely high on Polanco, I fully expect him to be as good as Dozier offensively and an upgrade defensively. This is a gift-wrapped opportunity to move a good player and fill a different hole. Dozier can go off to a team like the Yankees and continue to have a good career and the Twins can still be improved by losing him. This could be a true win-win trade.
- 70 replies
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- brian dozier
- jorge polanco
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I don't disagree. I would say that you can still teach different mechanics while letting him do his thing. When he stumbles, then, there is less of a learning curve. The conversation becomes, "Hey, remember that thing I showed you? Let's try that this week." And who knows, maybe this is how it went down.
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Point made, though coding is a bit different. There are good reasons to force a player to change his mechanics. Mark Prior's bad mechanics that he learned in college were not fixed and he blew out his arm. The mechanics were not fixed because he was dominant. People let him be. I think you can make a similar argument for the early Francisco Liriano. If the player's mechanics are going to result in a personal injury, you fix the problems. For someone like Buxton, I would let him do his thing until he stumbles. Sure, offer ideas and different approaches but allow him to use them as he sees fit. Don't dictate that he change until his approach stops working unless his mechanics are going to cause injury.
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It's a small sample size. Not saying he HASN'T turned the corner, but let's wait a bit before judging one way or the other.
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Why I want to see the Twins win in Sept 2016
Doomtints replied to goulik's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Though it ultimately doesn't matter, I would prefer the 2016 Twins NOT have the worst record since being in MN. For that they need 61 wins. Unfortunately that's a long shot after their abysmal finish of August. -
But walking is the 6th tool. Buxton only has the 5.
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The Twins haven't had a normal front office for a very long time. I don't expect logic to happen until the next group comes in. And I agree, the new group should be the ones to make the decision on this.
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Normally, a 13-loss streak means the firing of the manager.
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The Twins are not going to "tank" even if management wants to do so. These guys have their careers to worry about. They're not going to hit .100 here on out just so the Twins can get a high draft pick. Heck, if management asked them to "tank" that would probably inspire the team to do the exact opposite. Such a thing would be insulting to a player. The request would go public and it would be a black eye for the team. This isn't like the Twins are in the middle of the pack and a couple more wins means picking 18th instead of 12th. The Twins will get the first pick or the second pick, and in that range there isn't much of a difference.
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Superstars or not ... there are only 25 (or 40 now) roster spots and only one person can play a position at a time. There are logjams all over the infield. The options being mostly crappy doesn't mean the logjams don't exist. Until trades or cuts happen there isn't room to address the things that need to be addressed. I agree that Vargas, Polanco, etc., should be playing first over the established roster blockers on the team. If you're not going to send a message when the team is this bad, you're never going to send it!
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The Key to the Twins Offseason is....Brian Dozier?
Doomtints replied to Brandon Warne's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Any team would be thrilled to have a power bat/rarely-injured player in the middle of the infield. I think his defense is overrated but other pundits don't see it, so other GMs might not see it either. If Dozier is still here, the Twins haven't tried to trade him. With Polanco in the wings, this is a great opportunity for the Twins. A different GM will see it. -
I think the gist of his point was that the front office is probably thinking about how much of a pension they will get or whether another team might hire them and they are not thinking at all about the future of the Twins. Whereas before they were merely lost, at this point they are lost + they have personal things to worry about.
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There are already spots for him if management thinks he can do it. May's only hope is that the future regime wants him to start. Before that happens I wouldn't think about it. You're only setting yourself up to be disappointed.
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Nolasco is probably happy to get out of Minnesota. Santiago is probably unhappy about going to Minnesota. When the honeymoons are over they'll both go back to their norms.
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Nolasco always had a good game here or there, and even some good months too, while in a Twins uniform. Don't get caught up in a small sample size.
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Don't worry about Meyer becoming a superstar. The Angels demoted him all the way down to the rookie leagues before moving him up to A+. At A+ he has already had a very bad game.
