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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    Spot on
  2. tobi0040
    Love it
  3. tobi0040
    Tulowitski would be a terrible move. He is almost 31 and under contract through 35-36. I also think Coors has made him over-rated. He is a very good player. But he has a career road OPS of .819 vs. .958. His road BA is .277 vs. .324. I would have brought up Polanco about a month ago.
  4. tobi0040
    Pitchers only play 20% of the games, but they have a much bigger impact when they do. A hitter hits 1/9 of the time. A pitcher is 50% of every play.
  5. tobi0040
    I will give you Correa. I am guessing the initial comment was specific to prospects. But when you factor in control, Harper would be a rental at this point. No way I trade Buxton for Betts, $100M Seager, or Lindor. I also don't get the people that talked up Buxton that now look silly. He entered the year the #1 prospect. After almost a year off he had an OPS of .840 in AA. 116 total bases in 59 games and he swiped 20 bags. I think you are putting a little too much stock in 11 big league games.
  6. tobi0040
    Let's take a step back. We gave up on Gomez, then traded Span and Revere and gave CF to HIcks. It has been a really disastrous expiriment. Now Hicks has a .706 OPS in 120 AB's, it is a little premature to clear the way for him again, let alone trade a guy with 100 times more upside. I also don't think the too many CF's is an issue. If Rosario and Hicks profile as .720 OPS type hitters they would be excellent in the corners. Balls will not drop in the OF with those two and Buxton.
  7. tobi0040
    Yup. I would say that everyone agrees moving Mauer to catcher and effectively swapping Suzuki for Arcia in the lineup would be a short term boost. There is no disagreement about this. But a vast majority of people also understand that it is never happening because of that whole brain thing and it is really hard to fault that line of thinking.
  8. tobi0040
    I completely agree with you. You don't trade the #1 prospect in the game who is 21 because you have a current need on your team. Buxton for Lucroy, Susac? You are talking about a 2 year rental for a 30 year old who then will demand a huge contract (Lucroy) or Susac, who was in the 90th overall range last year. Those would be the guys theoretically available. And of course Buxton has more trade value than HIcks.
  9. tobi0040
    Given his age that is OK. You have to factor in a corner outfielder is expected to hit better than average and the fact that his defense is well below average.
  10. tobi0040
    I have to admit, I had no clue their 3B had an OPS over .800. No, this makes no sense for them and YES, the Twins should have had Ramos play that role in 2010.
  11. tobi0040
    I think the best move for both teams in the short run would be a Plouffe for Susac trade. I view Plouffe as a top 10 3B in this league. But he is 29 and a FA in two more seasons. Hard to argue Susac is not a top 10 catcher. .752 OPS so far, crushed AA and AAA. Controlled thru 2020.
  12. tobi0040
    I think upgrading the catcher role is the biggest move we can make. Suzuki has played in 78% of the games. Hitting .227, on base 28%, OPS of .585. IMO those numbers are far worse than Boyer's 2.66 ERA or even Fein's 4.30. And as much as we have used a 30 year old catcher this year, his numbers are likley to decline as the year goes on.
  13. tobi0040
    Nick nailed it, we have a backup playing every day. I see a guy that doesn't hit very well. Has no power. Doesn't throw out runners particularly well, doesn't seem to block balls very well (like two games ago in the 9th inning), and the stats say he doesn't fram very well. But I also agree that the Twins don't view this as a weakness. I would actually be surprised if we gave up anything significant for a catcher.
  14. tobi0040
    Had Perkins been anyone else they would have traded him. I think the biggest factor wasn't the local thing, it was the fact that he left a lot of money on the table to sign an extension to pitch here. It would have been a jerk move to then use that contract to up his value and trade him.
  15. tobi0040
    Yup. Even though I have raved about his potential for four years, I am somehow shocked at how good he has been.
  16. tobi0040
    Forgive me. The trades are usually so lopsided in the Twins favor the one that goes the other way I think is real. I also missed that Grilli is hurt on the first page.
  17. tobi0040
    From a development perspective that is great. But we are in the wild card position with a shot at winning the division. And I don't think Rodgers is a long term starter, I don't think he breaks through as one of the five best starters in the next 1-2 years. I think he is firmly behind Ervin, Hughes, Gibson, May, Berrios, Milone, and Meyer if he figures it out.
  18. tobi0040
    Yup. O'Rourke's OPS against below. .569 in 2015. .291 in 2014. .464 in 2013. .410 in 2012. Go out and get a 7-8th inning guy. Use the lefty speclialist more. And flip Graham and Boyer in higher leverage situations. Graham's 2.85 ERA falls to under 2.00 if you remove one of his 24 appearances.
  19. tobi0040
    You don't trade a top 30 prospect in the game, a 21 year old starting pitching in AAA for a reliever, let alone a 38 year old. I would completely freak out.
  20. tobi0040
    Rodgers minor league numbers against lefties (just posted in "the future is upon us thread"). Absolutely no reason why we need to trade for a lefty specialist when we have him sitting in AAA 2015 - .397 OPS in 128 PA. 37-2 K to BB. 29% K rate. 2014 - .555 OPS in 153 PA 40-8 K to BB. 26% K rate. 2013 -.524 OPS in 140 PA. 42-4 K to BB. 30% K rate. 2012 -.520 OPS in 50 PA. 18-0 K to BB. 36% K rate
  21. tobi0040
    Agreed, great review of the minor league system, the Twins this year and how the two stories have converged. I looked at Rodgers numbers in his entire minor league career to expand on his lefty splits. He has been flat out dominant every year in the minors. It really begs the question why Rodgers has not already received the call. Such an obvious need on this team. 2015 - .397 OPS in 128 PA. 37-2 K to BB. 29% K rate. 2014 - .555 OPS in 153 PA 40-8 K to BB. 26% K rate. 2013 - .524 OPS in 140 PA. 42-4 K to BB. 30% K rate. 2012 - .520 OPS in 50 PA. 18-0 K to BB. 36% K rate.
  22. tobi0040
    Agreed. Long term I see Sano in RF or LF and Arcia as your DH. So I think he has value for this franchise as well. The other thing, lots of these guys are under control past this year and this team has a group of guys where I think we can find two studs. Meyer, Burdi, Reed, Chargois, a converted starter in the minors, etc. And if you wanted to go out and give a 2 year $16M contract to a reliever next off-season you can probably get a pretty good one.
  23. tobi0040
    I like the asterisk by Plouffe. You don't give a 3 WAR player away. I may add Polanco to that list because I view him as the answer at SS for the next 2-3 years and superior to Santana. That is notoriously a difficult position to find a guy in FA.
  24. tobi0040
    I don't disagree with you because I think the desparation is the big thing. But one advantage of the off-season is that theoretically you have all teams interested in a guy versus just the teams that feel they are in contention AND have a whole at 3B.
  25. tobi0040
    Well, he had a .692 OPS in his first year of the deal and was paid $17M. Either way, I would be more worried about $17M commitment to the 33 and 34 year old catcher, or the $15M they may owe the 35 year old if it vests. And I think we are certainly talking extremes if the only options are Lucroy or Suzuki, I am guessing something exists in the .590 OPS to .800 OPS gap between those two.
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