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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    He has 3 OF assists this year, the league leader for CF has 4 (one person). I agree on the broader point though.
  2. tobi0040
    Give me about 30 seconds to do my own projection. Take current numbers and paste into excel. add the upcoming years. Copy and drag down. Hard key in and remove a stolen base from the 4 and 5 year number to appear I put thought into this. I am guessing Gomez 2010 would look like: .247 BA, 5 HR, 18 SB, .655 OPS .247 BA, 5 HR, 18 SB, .655 OPS .247 BA, 5 HR, 18 SB, .655 OPS .247 BA, 5 HR, 17 SB, .655 OPS .247 BA, 5 HR, 16 SB, .655 OPS Spot on to his actual results.
  3. tobi0040
    I acknowledged he was younger. But you have more similarities than differences. Gomez didn't click until 25 or 26 with Milwaukee. His first year there he had an OPS of .655, then .679 before .768 at age 26. That was over 1,500 at bats under his belt.
  4. tobi0040
    I absolutely disagree with several of your comments on this thread. Including: 1. "he absolutely cannot be counted on" 2. "something big will have to change that will allow him to hit the ball hard, or he will wash out" 3. "if you want a productive OF, Hicks has no place in it" 4. "what is all of this talk about Hicks in a corner OF spot, he has no chance" Regarding 1, 3, and 4, he is 24 years old and skipped AAA, which was not his fault. He has had just over 400 AB’s so far. I am not ready to give up on him, given his age, tools, and glimpses I have seen thus far (OBP so far this year, slugging last year, HR’s last year). And I have a sour taste in my mouth regarding the likes of Gomez and Hardy, who were here longer. Regarding number 2, his slugging was league average among CF last year. So it seems like hitting the ball hard wasn’t a challenge, yet his BABIP was still pretty low. Maybe luck has played a role. Regarding how long do we have to wait, if his OPS gets to above .700 with his youth, arm, and tools, he has a ton of trade value for a CF. Moving him for a good arm or SS would be a huge win and realistic given what we got for Revere and Span.
  5. tobi0040
    Here is my point, half of Simmons WAR last year would be 230th or so, of all time, for any position. http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/WAR_def_season.shtml
  6. tobi0040
    Agreed they were different. Gomez hit more for average, Hicks got on base. But I can't help but see parallels. Ton of tools, young, probably promoted too soon and took awhile to figure it out. But between Hicks 8 HR in half the year last year, his .338 slugging. His .338 OBP this year and his .382 OBP in May, I stand by the fact that I have seen more glimpses of an MLB player out of Hicks then I saw in Gomez first three years here. And Hicks is at about 40% of the games, albeit a little older.
  7. tobi0040
    Simmons WAR to date has been 8 defensively and 3.4 offensively (in 3 seasons). He is a once in a decade defensive talent. Nobody is saying Gordon is going to be a once in a decade talent defensively. So you are back to a ceiling of a .710 OPS. Here are my two cents, couldn't we trade for Didi and get this production? He is supposed to be a good defensive player with not a huge bat. What would we have to give up for Didi? I am guessing something good, but not equivalent to the 5th pick in the draft. So I would trade something less for Didi and take Jackson or a top arm.
  8. tobi0040
    My point is this article is about a year too late. They didn't mention that we signed two FA arms that have more than 7 k's per 9. We are probably 2-4 weeks away from Alex Meyer in the rotation, who will strike out a ton of batters. And we drafted a high upside arm that should be a strike out guy last draft. If you are saying we could have done these things starting in 2010, you are preaching to the choir. I think the lack of moves from the dismantling of the 2010 team to 2012 are the main reason why we are where we are. But the timing of the article was off to me.
  9. tobi0040
    Gardy managing our roster and in game moves reminds me of when I tried teaching my five year old how to play monopoly. Of course things get more interesting in NL games, more ways for him to screw it up. In 17 games in AAA, Arcia is hitting .316, 3 HR, .954 OPS. Sure glad we didn't invite him to join us.
  10. tobi0040
    Let's go back to after the 2009 season, Gomez has had 700 more at bats than Hicks to this point. What was your opinion about Gomez and his ability to be our CF? I had seen enough and would have traded him for a Diet Coke, and that is what scares me about the blanket statements about Hicks to this point.
  11. tobi0040
    Here is my point. It has been 400 at bats for a guy that never played at AAA and has a ton of talent. I am not ready for blanket statements quite yet. Over the course of 3 seasons and 1,000 at bats, we put up with Carlos Gomez and a .650 OPS and sub .300 OBP. Milwaukee then put up with 2 seasons in the .650-.670 range before he absolutely broke out. His combined WAR last year was over 9. Not only that, but after watching Go-Go those first two years, I have seen more flashes out of Hicks at the plate then I did with Gomez. Gomez looked completely lost for years, he didn't know if he was a contact guy, a power guy, etc. Hicks had a .338 slugging last year with 8 HR in 80 games. The 15th best CF in the MLB last year had a .350 slugging. Hicks .339 OBP ranks 8th in the MLB among CF. His overall game has been ugly and he does not project as the defensive player Gomez is, but he has shown flashes and it is very early in the book.
  12. tobi0040
    So if we had a replacement level player over Hicks in CF, we would have 4 more wins this year? Thru 42 games? Baseball reference has him at -.4. I am hoping that was a typo. If not, lets hit the pause button on this discussion.
  13. tobi0040
    If you are referring to Pelfrey and Kevin C, I think they are stop gaps to keep us respectable, chuckle chuckle regarding Pelfrey. But I think that was what they were trying to do.
  14. tobi0040
    With a .195 batting average, he is below replacement level. The question is, do you expect the rest of his career to mirror his first 400 at bats? That was my point. He has a good OBP as a base to work off. In May, granted only about 10 games he has a .222 BA and .382 OBP. He only needs to hit .240 or .250 with this OBP to be an above average CF by OPS and something that is about league average offensively for a corner (currently 25 LF/RF in the league have a better than .730 OPS).
  15. tobi0040
    My 3 are Freeland, Jackson, and Touki in order.
  16. tobi0040
    I don't think we can write off Hicks after 400 at bats. His OBP this year is .339. Only 16 players listed as an LF or RF in the entire league are getting on base more. His OPS is .610, which means if he gets the average up to .240 or so and mixes in a few more doubles and HR he can get his OPS up to .730. 25 guys listed as LF or RF have a higher OPS than .730, very few have the arm and speed.
  17. tobi0040
    Sure, every player can flame out and not make the big show. Absolutely, nobody is can't miss. Delmon Young was can't miss. Brandon Wood was a top prospect. Andy Marte. But the reason Gordons floor scares me is that he offensive ceiling is Simmons. Simmons is not a good hitter. In over 900 at bats, his OPS is .710. Jackson has been described as the highest likelihood to consistently hit 35 HR a year.
  18. tobi0040
    Wimmers was actually the 21st pick. I think we need to define success here. If success is reaching the majors, then Nola would be the best pick. My two cents is that a guy whose ceiling is a #3 or #4 starter but could be up next year is not a good pick. Maybe in round 2 or 3, but I think would rather have a guy that was supposed to go in the 1st round, then struggled with command, a higher upside guy even if it is less likely he gets here. We can sign guys like Keven C in free agency, we don't need to draft them in the first round. If you look at those two strategies, one where you take safe guys with no upside and the other where you swing for the fences. The swinging for the fences strategy is the only one that could propel this team into the playoffs eventually. I don't see a team with back of the rotation guys beating out Detroit anytime soon.
  19. tobi0040
    That is what I thought when I read the article too. I thought it was unfair. The word "built" to me would imply they should look beyond this year. We signed two pitchers last off-season that have over 7 K per 9 for their career. Alex Meyer will probably be an 8-9 K per 9 guy and he is knocking on the door (also build via trade). And we took a power arm in Kohl Stewart #5 overall. And Gibsons K's have fallen quite a bit since his promotion and his total should rise. Regarding the outfield, I think you could see an OF next year of Buxton in CF and Hicks in a corner. Come talk to us at that point.
  20. tobi0040
    We knew, with 100% certainty that Revere was not a starting OF on a good team. Add on that we had at least two guys in our system that projected as a much better CF. And we got a starting pitcher with good numbers and a teams #1 prospect (albeit not a great system). I think Mays floor is a pretty good reliever, but it doesn't really matter to me how it all pans out. You do this deal seven days a week.
  21. tobi0040
    That floor scaes me when you are drafting #5 overall.
  22. tobi0040
    Batting left his OPS is .540. Batting right his OPS is .725. I have made this point before, but his dad "challenged" him to switch hit at 11 or 12 as a test to see if he really wanted to play baseball (his dad didn't want him to play baseball because he was beaned). It seemed forced then and forced now. If they send him down, I agree. Why not? Would he be any worse than .540 OPS hitting right against righties?
  23. tobi0040
    Regarding the Cubs, they have some big bats in their minor league system and a good young SS with the big club. If I put money on it, they go with an arm. But I don't see anyone outside of Aiken, Rodon, Kolek, or Jackson. http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2014/index.jsp?c_id=chc
  24. tobi0040
    I guess we will know in a few weeks, but I don't see Theo taking Nola. Nor do I see the best bat (Jackson) going 10th.
  25. tobi0040
    Gibson seems like a totally different pitcher up here. 5.1 K per 9 last years and 4.0 this year.
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