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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    I think the only "wrong" is taking a guy for the wrong reason. Nola for example, if we are considering him because of how quckly he will be up. I think that would be a mistake. If your scouts feel like he has the most upside at #5, that is fine. Or Gordon because we have need at SS now. Same thing, if we think he is the best on the board at #5 then take him.
  2. tobi0040
    I agree, I would think something could happen in his first year, maybe his second as the Twins tend to be conservative. I would think something in the Mccutchen range. A deal in in the 6/50 range that could be worth 7/65 or 8/80 with options, going to age 29 or 30.
  3. tobi0040
    Yeah...just listen to the union and not your agent. That is a new one.
  4. tobi0040
    Mike said Buxton isn't doing it in a million years. You said "i was going to say the same thing"
  5. tobi0040
    Never in a million years? I raise you the following. Not all were top 5 picks, but some were and they all had huge expectations when they signed. The deals in the 5/30 range had 1 or 2 more years of service time than the Singleton deal when they were signed Longoria - 9 years, $44M Matt Moore - 5 years, $14M with opitions at 7M, 9M, and 10M Chris Sale - 5 years $32M, two options at $13M a year Madison Bumarter - 5 years, $35M, 12M option Paul Goldschmidt - 5 years, $32M, 14M option Andrew Mccutchen - 6 years, $51M, option at $14M
  6. tobi0040
    Looking like a great rotation down there.
  7. tobi0040
    The obvious candidate is Buxton, in my opinion. He is not going to lose his speed or arm over the next 7-8 years. So lets say the hit tool fails in the big leagues, which nobody is predicting. You have a CF that hits .260 with 8 HR, steals 30-40 bases and plays gold glove defense in center field. For $30M over 8 years or something like that. I am guessing it would cost more, but you get the point.
  8. tobi0040
    I don't see Theo taking Conforto, not even a consensus top 8 pick at #4. He has been adding BPA since he took over and has assembled a very good farm system. I think they take a pitcher, but either way I think they end up with Aiken, Rodon, Kolek, or Jackson. I agree with you John, I hope we would take Jackson over Gordon.
  9. tobi0040
    Funny dialogue. I think the cream of this draft is four picks, in order. Aiken, Rodon, Jackson, and Kolek. I hope one of the four drop to us and we pick that one over Gordon.
  10. tobi0040
    I expected a slow start for Stewart with improvement as he moves forward. So a ERA under 2.50 with very few hits and 7 k per 9 is encouraging. He will get better as he plays more baseball. Berrios, while not 5th overall pick had a 3.99 ERA with about 9 K per 9 last year in this league. Eades, although a second round pick has an ERA of 5.66 in the same league and he is 3 years older.
  11. tobi0040
    I am guessing LEN didn't feel the need to come out and say it was a joke, given Dr. Andrews performed eyelid replacement surgery. I find this very funny
  12. tobi0040
    Bingo.
  13. tobi0040
    If he has a plus slider, this will force him to develop the other pitches. Throw just enough of them not to lose it, save the arm for when it counts.
  14. tobi0040
    Lets get rid of the garbage and give the fans something to be excited about. I agree 100%, worrying about depth and keeping more talented pitchers in AAA is exactly how you end up with the worst staff in the league for three years.
  15. tobi0040
    I think what he has done this year has been amazing. He has never pitched year round and in his first year as a pro he has given up 37 hits in 49 IP, with two pitches. A 1.06 WHIP?
  16. tobi0040
    I would do that trade in a heartbeat. Look at the AAA pen, not to mention Pino and Johsnon who could be moved: Pressly 2.90 ERA Achter 1.78 ERA Thompson 2.82 ERA Hoffman 2.70 ERA Guerra 2.95 ERA Tonkin 2.25 ERA
  17. tobi0040
    I am a believer in May, but think that Meyer should get the first call, without a doubt. Mays numbers are better this year, 2.62 ERA versus 3.31. Meyer's K's are better (62 in 51 IP versus 54 in 55 ip). Their numbers over the last two years are not even close (Meyer's ERA was 2.99 and 2.86 versus Mays 4.87 and 4.51).
  18. tobi0040
    In July, if his ERA is sub 2.75 and is striking out guys at a clip of one an inning or more, I would bring him up. Not a huge rush though.
  19. tobi0040
    I am guessing Prior's career WAR is much higher. HOF caliber numbers: 59% winning percentage. 3.51 career ERA, 1.22 WHIP. 10.4 K per 9.
  20. tobi0040
    I have heard our board has the three pitchers (Aiken, Rodon, Kolek), then Gordon. So we probably end up with Gordon (I think Jackson will go ahead of Gordon)
  21. tobi0040
    I think Kolek is probably a 5% chance at Clemens and 20% chance at a #2/#3 starter, another 20% shot at being a good closer. I will take that over a 100% chance at a #3 starter. The fact is we can sign a #3 starter. Our payroll is at $80M and we have a ton of young, talented, controllable players coming up.
  22. tobi0040
    Here were the four teams that advanced past us in the playoffs in 2010: Giants - Lincecum (3.43 ERA), Cain (3.14 ERA), and Bumgarter (3.00 ERA) Rangers - Lee (3.18 ERA), Wilson (3.35 ERA) Phillies - Halladay (2.44 ERA), Hamels (3.06 ERA), Oswalt (2.76 ERA) Yankees - CC (3.18 ERA) and Pettitte (3.28 ERA) Look at the Tigers rotation now, that is what we are up against, so I am in favor of throwing players in the pipeline that may be able to match them down the road versus a deep rotation of #3 starters.
  23. tobi0040
    My thoughts exactly. Based on draft position, these guys all I am guessing had questionable command or secondary offerings (or both): Roger Clemens (drafted while in college, 19th overall) Randy Johnson (drafted while in college, 2nd round) Nolan Ryan (drafted out of high school, 12th round) Even if you only have a 5% chance at one of these guys, a light version would still be a huge catch and reward the pick
  24. tobi0040
    These are all good points, but you have to go off of history and the rules, not the exceptions. -In general, pitchers that throw with velocity get more K's -More K's usually means better overall numbers -Pitchers at 18 have a better chance to develop pitches than a pitcher at 21 Regarding the odds bit, I think you are looking at Nola in a very favorable light and have a pessimistic view of Kolek. The career ERA's of Voila, Mark B., and Radke are 3.73, 3.81, and 4.22. For argument sake, you have a 40% chance at a #2 starter and a 30% chance at a #3 starter. Most reports have Nola's ceiling as a #3 starter. I would also argue something exists between Roger Clemons and Joel Zumaya and certainly, at a minimum a comp could be given to a closer that stays healthy
  25. tobi0040
    It is a supply and demand issue for me. The supply of pitchers with Kolek's upside is very low and too pricey for us. Every off-season you can get #3/#4 starters. I think drafting at #5 based on how quickly a guy will be here (or even using it as a tie breaker) is not the way to do it. Sign another Nolasco, Hughes, or Garza next off-season if we need something next year, plant a seed in the garden that could grow to be a front line starter.
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