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nytwinsfan

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Everything posted by nytwinsfan

  1. nytwinsfan
    I'm completely fine with this level of payroll now. My concerns are (1) that some of it was spent on pretty questionable contracts (Hunter, Pelfrey), and (2) that they won't spend more in 2-3 years when the Twins have a chance to really compete.
  2. nytwinsfan
    I'd offer them May (which they wouldn't do), but probably not Gibson.
  3. nytwinsfan
    Ok, sorry. I understand the idea of regression to the mean, but in common parlance regression is usually meant as a negative only. In the future I'll be sure to use only the technical terminology approved for this blog. :-)
  4. nytwinsfan
    About the only positive projection is for Hughes, where they expect him to stay relatively close to the BB and K rates from last year and to be by far the most valuable player on the team.
  5. nytwinsfan
    The plate appearances can't be what Fangraphs actually expects. That can't be right. They must be assuming if the player gets called up and put in a starting position or something like that. Relatedly, Jeff Sullivan's XBABIP which takes into account how fast a runner is and how many hard hit balls he hits, to predict BABIP. From this, it looks like Santana, Vargas, Escobar, Suzuki, Hicks, and Mauer are due for regressions, but Dozier and Arcia are due for improvements. Interestingly, Santana still has a very high expected BABIP, just not as high as his absurd .405 last season. Plouffe is expected to improve very slightly. Especially for some of the young players, there is probably more likely to be improvement in the hard hit balls, as well as in K and BB rates (which of course are not taken into account by BABIP) but still, some reason for skepticism about continued offensive output on the same level as last season. http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/2014-xbabip-values/
  6. nytwinsfan
    Haha, sucks to be Phillies fans.
  7. nytwinsfan
    No, because that would compromise his journalistic integrity. Plus they can read them here for free!
  8. nytwinsfan
    His BABIP dropped a lot in the last two months. It was .305, .310, .333, and .358 in April through July, respectively, and then .261 and .288 in August and September, respectively. Even though the latter two months are closer to his career BABIP, if line drives were driving his increased output last year, and they remained at the same level in the latter half of the season, as Parker says, that suggests some amount of bad luck was involved too. Also, don't you mean his BB/K rate, not K/BB ratio?
  9. nytwinsfan
    Cough cough, Andrew Susac (see my post above). Although I don't think we should give up on Pinto quite yet.
  10. nytwinsfan
    I don't understand why that follows, at all. Even very good pitchers pitch lots of balls on or close to the border of the strike zone. Having a good pitch framer may make some of those strikes that would have otherwise been balls; same as for a "stinky" pitcher. At very very most, pitch framing might add slightly more value for a mediocre pitcher who can't locate in the zone as consistently. But that is not at all clear. Some bad and mediocre pitchers are bad and mediocre because they throw too many meatballs over the center or near-center of the plate while better pitchers paint the corners, knees, and belt. Under that scenario, a good pitch framer could end up helping a good pitcher more than a mediocre or bad pitcher. That being said, I don't think that pitch framing is the end all of catcher value (or that the current ways of measuring it are perfect), and I do agree that Pinto should be given a decent chance to show his defensive ability, because his offensive upside is significant.
  11. nytwinsfan
    Seems like we should be clear on what measures we're discussing regression. From a BB%, K%, HR% and FIP perspective, I think most of us agree he is likely to regress somewhat (although hopefully not too much!). From an ERA perspective though, it is completely reasonable that he might improve, given better outfield defense throughout the year (although even with getting rid of YesPig, with Hunter now, that is not a given). I only say this because different people evaluate how good a pitcher is on different metrics. So people who give more credence to the former stats (myself included) may say Hughes is very likely to regress, while people who focus on ERA, innings pitched, and even W-L might be more likely to say he's not a big regression candidate. That being said, I'm still a big fan of the extension, even though I think he is likely to regress. If he even comes close to what he did last year in 2017, 2018, and/or 2019, it will have been worth it.
  12. nytwinsfan
    Let's trade with Giants for Andrew Susac. I hear they need a legit 3rd basemen, so maybe Plouffe for Susac before the trade deadline? Depending on how Plouffe's and Susac's years are going, we might need to throw in a prospect as well.
  13. nytwinsfan
    Yup, that's the one at 72. It is after the second round. See here: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2015/order.jsp
  14. nytwinsfan
    Remember though that our second round pick is at 72, not 47 because of Ervin Santana.
  15. nytwinsfan
    I understand that some people think Mauer is the greatest Twin ever and others think the only thing he is the greatest at is being overrated. I'm probably somewhere in the middle, but in four years he will be 35 going on 36 . . . And the original point was about Sano. Whether it is Mauer, Vargas, Minier, or Diaz, it would be really great if Sano could stick at 3rd.
  16. nytwinsfan
    I hope you are right, but this team has a mentality of keeping/bringing back the band, especially with someone like Mauer.
  17. nytwinsfan
    Also, there seemed to be a couple omissions and errors that cast doubt on their research. They say Rosario was suspended for a performance enhancing drug, which isn't my understanding. They also didn't mention Thorpe's elbow problems at all, which seems like a serious oversight.
  18. nytwinsfan
    In the Prospects on the Rise section they also talk about Lewin Diaz, who they basically say may be the second coming of Sano in terms of power, albeit with less quickness and athleticism. Hopefully Sano can remain at 3rd base, because between Mauer, Vargas, Minier, and now Diaz, there may be plenty of other contenders for 1st base and DH in the next five years.
  19. nytwinsfan
    Yeah, his BABIP and batting average will probably regress. But he's shown the ability to take walks in the minors, and as some people pointed out above, he may have accumulated more walks later in the season as pitchers stopped throwing him as many meatballs. I expect his BB rate to improve next year, while still having an overall regression in terms of OPS.
  20. nytwinsfan
    Santana. I think he will regress a bit (or more) at the plate, but especially after moving to shortstop, still provide the most value.
  21. nytwinsfan
    Related, is the "Pinto is a bad defensive/receiving catcher" belief that everyone seems to share based on the eye test (and presumably pitchers' comments) alone, or are there stats that show this?
  22. nytwinsfan
    I wouldn't extend either, and certainly not Plouffe. I would understand it if they extend Dozier, but I wouldn't. I'd much rather wait a year or two and extend younger players like Arcia or Santana (assuming they continue to perform). Plouffe and Dozier have probable cheap upgrades in Sano and Polanco on the way.
  23. nytwinsfan
    You have to consider opportunity cost. And signing a talent with a position which you have no or few options obviously has a lower opportunity cost than a position (right now 3rd base, SS, 2nd base for the Twins) where you have good, promising options. Another way of thinking about this is that it would mean the Twins would need to move Sano's position, or trade Dozier/Polanco. That is a cost because Sano has less value at 1st and you may not be able to get full return for Dozier or Polanco, when you want to move them. You can say "when you are bad you don't worry about" that, but that is just not true or realistic. Terry Ryan has to think on the margin. And on the margin, Moncada is worth at least slightly more to a team like the Yankees, Angels, or Giants that have giant gaping holes in their infield. Obviously if the Twins think the price is worth it (i.e, Moncada is clearly and significantly being undervalued by other teams), they should sign Moncada. But that is the case for any player. That's almost a tautology. I'm just pointing out that his positional value is slightly higher for other teams. It is not necessarily determinative, and I would LOVE if they signed Moncada, but it is something that matters and that should be considered, on the margin. As for Sano, we don't know how good his defense will be at 3rd yet. I agree there is some non-negligible chance he will need to move to 1st, and if the Twins are pretty sure that is the case, then definitely all the more reason to go after Moncada. But you and I don't know whether that is the case.
  24. nytwinsfan
    Thanks Jeremy. I guess I can't imagine the Twins competing with New York, LA, SF and the like unless they are pretty sure Sano cannot stay at 3rd Base. If you are going to spend that kind of money, wouldn't you want to make sure you have a real positional need that Moncada can fill? I know Moncada could also be a 2nd baseman or SS, but the Twins seem to have a lot of options for those positions going forward. Obviously, Moncada is so good a prospect that the Twins might make an offer, even without a positional need, but you would think if the Twins were not already overmatched by the money available to big market teams, the fact that some of them have glaring holes at 3rd base or 2nd base (e.g., the Angels, Yankees, or the Giants) would make them even more likely to spend big on Moncada, relative to the Twins. Would love to be proven wrong though. After all, I didn't think that Hughes extension was going to happen either. And even if the Twins just spend $25 million ($40 m with taxes) on 12 different high-upside international teenagers in 2015-16, that would be awesome too.
  25. nytwinsfan
    "Someone down semi-involved with the area that Moncada is working out" . . . from the Twins organization?
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