nytwinsfan

Also from the same chat: kiper90 (Rochester, NY): Hey Chris & Nick, who do have as some of your favorite Low Minor, high ceiling prospects to keep an eye on for 2015, before their stock gains recognition this season, ex. Tapia last pre-season or Devers by its conclusion? Top 101 Chat: I like what I've heard from some evaluators on Lewin Diaz. I unfortunately didn't get a chance this year to go down to Instructs (prior commitments) to see for myself, but there was some buzz on him. 2015 may be a bit early given where he is, but a name to definitely keep on the radar. matt (Virginia beach, va): Who is the highest at BP on stephen gonsalves? How far away is he from this list and what's your personal take on him? Top 101 Chat: I suppose I am the high man on him as I made the call to include him at number 10 on the Twins list this year. If he can continue to show development traction this coming year in full-season, especially with sharpening the consistency of how he finishes his delivery to spot the fastball in the lower tier and get more crisp with his breaking ball, I can see him being in this conversation next off-season. Jack (NYC): Thank you for doing this chat. Which prospects toward the end of the Top 101 or not listed at all in the Top 101 have the highest ceilings or have the opportunity to rocket up the prospect charts? Top 101 Chat: Lewis Thorpe can take a pretty good jump if he continues to show that the uptick in his stuff is real, and can be held over a full workload during the season. The upside can push into the number 2 starter territory. Its early in the development, and we're in the dead of early February, but he's a candidate to have a breakout season for sure. Allen (Minny): How do you guys see Miguel Sano recovering from TJS? Is a move to 1B in his future? Do you guys see all the power coming back and basically starting right back where he was at pre injury? 40 HR upside still in the making? Top 101 Chat: Even pre-TJS there were some thoughts that he'd ultimately move over to first, but we'll have to see how the arm strength returns. Pre-surgery, Sano's arm was a legit 7, and he had made some good progress getting more loose at the position. Its a fighting chance he sticks on the left side. As far as the power, yes, I see that returning pretty quickly, though its going to be interesting how quickly he can shake off the rust from being out of game action for a season. The selectiveness and ability to stay back against good breaking stuff was an area that needed work during his first tour through Double-A, and those aspects are usually something that comes (if they do) with constant repetition. Tony (Edmond, OK): Look into your crystal ball - what does Byron Buxton's best season look like (triple-slash)? Top 101 Chat: .315/.387/.508 Mayo (Rochester, MN): Does Nick Burdi have top tier closer upside? Top 101 Chat: I believe so. I know Nick is on that wavelength as well.

The guy basically just needs to reduce his walk rate a decent amount. That's what the Twins pitching coaches are (were?) known for. Doing that will also help him get later into games. But honestly, with the bullpen we are likely to have in the coming years, It probably is not the end of the world if he doesn't make it past the 6th inning most games (because of pitch count, not because of poor pitching).

Holy crap. Also, Meyer at 14 is the highest I've seen him anywhere.

Agreed, and control might be a good reason for putting him below Berrios and/or Stewart, but control can be developed later in a career, especially for a taller pitcher, and so I don't think that undermines his upside, which I agree is higher than Berrios and Stewart. I don't think most scouts would disagree Meyer has the most upside. They just think he doesn't have the most expected value, which is probably true.

Meyer seems like a great, level-headed guy. I also still think he has the best chance of becoming an ace of any of our prospects, Berrios and Stewart included, but obviously I'm still not "expecting" him to become an ace. And if starting doesn't work, just imagine a bullpen in late 2016 that has Perkins, Meyer, Burdi, and Reed. I wouldn't want to be losing to the Twins after the sixth inning going against that bullpen, that's for sure.

Seriously. So sick of this.

Don't a lot of pitchers develop a changeup in their lower 20s? And isn't a curveball generally considered easier to learn than a changeup (hence why most pitchers learn the changeup later)? I'm genuinely asking, as I don't really know much about pitcher development.

My understanding is that both his fastball and changeup are solid, just not his curveball.

That's certainly a fair point, but on the other side Kepler came from a non-baseball country, and hasn't been playing the game against the same quality of competition as long. He's also dealt with quite a lot of injuries, which arguably have not allowed his potential to fully show. So his ceiling may be higher than we realize.

I've read elsewhere that Gonsalves' problem is primarily with his breaking ball, not his fastball/change/command, which are all average or plus. For instance, this from a year and a half ago notes his "below average curveball": http://www.twinkietown.com/draft-coverage/2013/6/18/4442030/stewart-gonsalves-in-minnesota Similarly, Keith Law just said a few days ago that "Stephen Gonsalves (18) pitched well at two levels -- his last start of the year pushed his low-A ERA up by over a run -- but still doesn't have even a fringy breaking ball to go with his plus split-change." Similarly, Kiley McDaniel discussed his "below average curveball." http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evaluating-the-prospects-minnesota-twins/ The good news is (at least based on my limited understanding) that usually it is control/command and changeup that are the limiting factor for a starter, not a decent breaking ball. So Gonsalves and the Twins' pitching coaches ought to be able to develop his breaking ball to be at least serviceable.

Agreed, if 5 or 6 things breaks right (Nolasco rebounds some, Mauer rebounds some, Hicks rebounds some, Vargas doesn't regress, Santana only regresses somewhat, Arcia and Gibson have slight improvments, Hunter's outfield D is only bad (not horrible)), then I could see us getting above .500. Otherwise, I doubt it.

Where is power?

Yes, I think so, but I'd be (pleasantly) surprised by those numbers.

Fair enough, but Butera has a major league career OPS of .505. :-) True, he had a minor league OPS of only .607, compared to Turner's minor league OPS of .707 so far, but Butera's OPS was better than that through A+ as well. In fact, Butera's OPS in the Florida State League was a .765. I think Turner will likely end up being a better hitter than Butera, and if he is a league average hitter for catcher, that would be fine with his defense. But that's not a given at all .

Oooh, thanks. He previously had them for just the very top prospects in the systems he had completed his write-ups for. I wonder when he updated this. Will definitely check them out.

With Vargas, Pinto, Mauer, and maybe Sano at 1st Base/DH, where do we see Minier and Diaz playing in 2018-20? Yes, I know it is not exactly the most pressing issue, and the Twins could probably trade one or more if we end up having the problem of too many slow, power bats, but it is worth considering. Also, Turner has the floor of a major league backup catcher, but whether he is good enough to start will depend on whether or not he hits like Butera. I'm not at all convinced he will be an adequate starting catcher in 2017. When it does come time for the Twins to flip Plouffe, Escobar, or even Dozier later this year or next, I'd like to see them do it for a higher-ceiling catching prospect.

Yeah, I lean against an extension, especially when you have a likely solid 2nd Baseman in Polanco or (if Santana sticks at short) Gordon waiting in the wings. Obviously if the terms are good enough and you can lock him at a good rate then sure, but I have a bad premonition of an untradeable, fading (with age) unnecessary Dozier in 2018.

I don't see a reasonable scenario under which this happens this year. If everything goes right, maybe in 2016.

Uggh, Sano in the outfield. Yes, I know he is athletic and quick, for his size, but still, come on.

I predict 75-78 wins. I think regressions from Santana and Vargas and continued poor outfield defense will largely undermine genuine improvements from Mauer and the rotation. I do expect much better things in 2016 though.

If he ever figures out his contact/strike zone issues, dude is going to be a monster.

I would be surprised if either Texas or Colorado, both of whom need pitching badly, don't take him. If they don't it is likely because of elbow concerns, in which case . . . That being said, assuming that Houston was exaggerating the elbow issues, I'd love to get him. The part about all teams seeing his medicals before the draft will be an interesting twist, but is probably as it should be. Right now it looks like one of the college arms (Buehler, Kirby, or Funkhouser) or this year's Aiken, prep lefty Kolby Allard, is more realistic for the Twins

I know what blue collar literally means, but I still don't think it makes any sense in combination with what was clearly a shot (hopefully friendly) at Berrios.

I was with him until the blue collar thing. If Berrios comes from a wealthy family, that's news to me. Or maybe he meant something else by that. Anyway, that part was strange.

Completely agree Nick. I have nothing further to add.