nytwinsfan

That looks pretty good, but it was also 18 months, 15-20 pounds, and 1 elbow ago.

That is what Ryan is saying now. I don't think it was mostly what they were saying at the time. Although they probably said something about his bat at the time too, I remember it being mostly about defense.

Fantastic analysis. Gives me hope for Pinto's defense.

This is cool. Although I'm not exactly sure about his methodology, which I don't see on this page, but this guy attempts to aggregate all of the prospect rankings published for each team, presumably by assigning points for finish on each list. He has done it for quite a few Twins lists (18 by my count - but no Gleeman). https://stealofhome.wordpress.com/2015/03/02/2015-minnesota-twins-unified-top-prospect-list/ 1 Byron Buxton CF 797 100 0 2 Miguel Sano 3B 786 98 0 3 Jose Berrios RHP 748 90 3 4 Alex Meyer RHP 747 94 -1 5 Kohl Stewart RHP 739 95 -1 6 Nick Gordon SS 724 93 1st Round 7 Jorge Polanco 2B 653 42 0 8 Nick Burdi RHP 614 82 2nd Round 9 Lewis Thorpe LHP 587 88 -1 10 Eddie Rosario CF 543 86 -5 11 Trevor May RHP 469 -2 12 Max Kepler LF 460 -1 13 Stephen Gonsalves LHP 452 42 -1 14 Amaurys Minier LHP 318 14 15 Travis Harrison LF 309 -2 16 Adam Walker RF 290 -1 17 Stuart Turner C 280 4 18 Jake Reed RHP 234 5th Round 19 Chih-Wei Hu RHP 210 Unranked last year 20 Michael Cederoth RHP 183 3rd Round 21 Felix Jorge RHP 111 -5 22 Taylor Rogers LHP 101 8 23 Mason Melotakis LHP 68 1 24 Mitch Garver C 66 24 Tyler Duffey RHP 66 14 26 Fernando Romero RHP 59 -7 27 Lewin Diaz 1B 42 28 J.R. Graham RHP 40 Rule 5 from Braves 29 J.T. Chargois RHP 39 16 30 Levi Michael 2B 36 30

Panda is also only 5 foot 11, so even if he did only weigh 240, that's still a bit more weight relative to the frame. Also, here is some context for Cabrera's weight of "240." http://www.mlive.com/tigers/index.ssf/2012/02/detroit_tigers_miguel_cabrera_2.html

I get the Sept. call-up thing, but Pinto did fine as a rookie catcher playing every third day in 2014. I don't think it is comparable to Parmalee because Pinto is a Catcher, Parmalee was a 1B (his outfield defense was horrible). The threshold for Pinto being a valuable hitter is significantly lower.

Ok, well that is useful context. Agreed that he doesn't need to be a Gold Glove 3B, although only a slightly below average fielder would be great. The weight is all the more reason to take our time with Sano. Give him time to lose some of the weight, and also give him the hint that we have a great fielding 3B already, so if he wants to supplant him, he'll need to prove he can field adequately (and thus keep the weight off). I'd much rather wait a bit longer on Sano if it means he can play at 3B for even 2-4 years. That's just too valuable, and the Twins likely won't be competing this year anyway. They likely will be in 2016-2019.

Umm, can they tell him if he wants to play in the majors this year, he needs to lose 15 pounds? Even if that isn't entirely true, can't they tell him that? I understand he is an adult, and can do what he wants, and also that they don't want to create animostity, but the reality is, his value to the team (and the money he will make in the medium run) is significantly less if he has to move to 1B, corner outfield, or DH. Someone he respects/trusts needs to sit down with him an have a conversation. It seems like he's still under the impression he is going to be playing third, so maybe before any threats about playing time/call ups, they need to give him an honest if harsh wake up call so he fully understands he can't stay at 3B at 260 pounds. There really is nowhere else for him to go without moving Mauer, Vargas or Arcia. We just can't have an outfield with Arcia and Sano.

On the other hand, it would be great news if the Twins think Pinto's defense is good enough to be a catcher. I guess I should be thrilled about that instead of upset about the inexplicable criticism of Pinto's hitting.

The thing that driove me crazy from that Q& A is this: I realize Ryan was saying that his ability to hit was his strength, and that's what he needs to really do to make it worthwhile to keep him as a catcher, but . . . Pinto has a career .784 OPS, which is fantastic for a catcher. Granted, his OPS was only .705 last year (still above average for a catcher) but that was in under 200 ABs, often being put into the lineup here and there without a chance to get comfortable or play many days in a row. Now maybe they saw something that was going on with his hitting that they thought could benefit from some time in Rochester working on it. Fair enough. But then Ryan could have acknowledged that. Because the stats alone just don't support it.

Need to watch Pelotero again. I forget the details now, although I remember more of the focus being on the dealings with the Pirates than on the dealings with the Twins.

My understanding is there were many fewer written rules then, although maybe you are referring to un-written rules.

All great points. Although I'm not sure any 16 yo is a "sure bet" to stick at SS. But he does sound like he has a better shot at sticking at SS than most.

Although I actually think Happ is a poor fit for the Twins (we don't need another Arcia-like corner outfielder with bad defense or 1B/DH), I am cheering him on because I'd love for him to go in the top 5 and help drop someone like Tate or Aiken to the Twins at 6.

Tweet from Doogie on this: He's been digging, and so far has no reason to doubt Twins are in on Javier. https://twitter.com/DarrenWolfson/status/572779962123624448' Another tweet from Doogie:

I think the latter. At the very least, he'd probably be in the Domincan Summer League the first year, as were Lewin Diaz and Minier when they signed out of the DR.

I'm not saying he is Addison Russell -- a 60 versus a 50 (or even a 55) power is a significant difference. I'm just saying take an all-around great SS prospect like Russell, and subtract some power, and that's comparable tools. He's actually closer to Crawford or Gordon for that matter, in terms of tools.

I also think it is pretty rare to project an above-average fielding, above-average speed, above-average arm, above-average hitting (which i took Kiley to be saying), average power SS. So if you look at Addison Russel's tools, he is 55 (above average) across the board, with a 60 on power. So if Wander is 55 across the board, with a 50 for power (with a chance at 55 as Kiley hints -- "may even be a tick better than that depending how his body develops") and a chance for a 60 at speed and/or possibly arm or fielding, you are talking about a very valuable prospect. As Kiley said, its a rare package of tools. EDIT: If you look at Kiley's top 200, and tools, this is essentially JP Crawford, with a little less speed (and much greater uncertainty/risk obviously). Kiley ranked him the # 10 prospect in baseball, which is obviously worth an easy 4 $ million. So the tools are those of a really good shortstop and prospect. He's just really young, so there is a ton of risk.

Jokin, for what it is worth, Kiley puts Raul Mondesi Jr.'s speed tool as a 60 now: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa659237&position=SS

Jokin, good question, but I think (could be wrong) Kiley is saying it would be a 50 (7.01) or 55 (6.76) as compared to other prospects/baseball players. In other words, he is not adjusting for age. I get this interpretation because he then goes on to say that he is the kind of prospect who could gain a step or two as he gets older (implying he might then be a 60 or so).

I'd be fine with that too, especially if they go after one of the Cuban pitchers, but I think you overestimate how much good PR that would engender outside of the people who read and comment on these posts.

Jeremy can probably correct me if any of this is wrong, but the Twins pool is $3,948,500. They can trade for up to 50% of that, which would be $5,922,750. Then, you are also allowed to go up to 5% over before anything more than 100% overages kick in (i.e., at that point you can't sign anyone above $500 K the following year). http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25149 So in theory, the Twins could spend up to $6,218,887.50 (after trades and 5% over), and not face any penalty other than 100% penalty on the $300 K overage. So they could still have more than $2 Million left to spend on others. Slow day at work.

To the extent they are planning on going over their bonus pools, Mike Berardino reported earlier this weekend that the Twins were also looking at left-handed hitting outfielder Juan Soto and third baseman Christopher Martinez. Kiley talks about Soto in his article back in October, but I have not found anything more about Martinez. What Kiley said about Soto:

Kiley wrote more about Javier here, back in late October: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-the-top-2015-july-2nd-prospects/

Kiley McDaniel is reporting that the Twins are said to have a $4 million dollar deal in place for Wander Javier, a 16-yo Dominican shortstop who will be available on July 2. That is just over the Twins' bonus allocation ($3.948 million), so they would need to trade for additional space to avoid penalties. However, with at least five teams unable to spend more than $300 K on any one prospect, extra bonus money (up to a total of around $6 M) ought to be easy to come by. I find it hard to believe the Twins would only sign Javier, as they usually also sign some smaller-name, low-priced prospects, so this leads me to believe they are either going to trade up to nearly $6 million and spend another $1.9 million on other youngsters, or they will go past their bonus (and maximum trade bonus) and face penalties. If the latter is the case, then expect them to go after a couple of additional high-end Domincan prospects, and possibly one of the Cuban pitchers, who could be even more expensive. Either way, it is very exciting to see the Twins going after a high upside prospect! http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/july-2nd-plans-are-coming-into-focus/ Here is a video of Wander: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQM2BzjyTNU Here is what Kiley says about him: Javier is the kind of player you typically see near the top of July 2nd bonus lists. He’s a 6’0, lanky shortstop with easy actions and an above average arm with an ability to stick at the position. Javier ran a 7.01 in the 60 last month, a 50 run time on the 20-80 scale, but he’s the type of kid who will probably gain a step in the next few years; Royals SS Raul Mondesi is an example of similar prospect who gained a couple steps after he signed. Javier ran a 6.76 for me in October, so 55 speed is clearly in the tank. Javier flashes average raw power that may even be a tick better than that depending how his body develops and he flashes some ability to show that tool in games. In the first half of the video, from last month, Javier was just okay offensively, getting off balance and swinging and missing more than expected. In the second half of the video, from October, Javier is more relaxed with better timing. While his mechanics still aren’t perfect, his feel for hitting took over when his hitting actions were more compact. This isn’t to say that Javier is trending down, just pointing out how one bad event could change a scout’s projection if he didn’t have history with the player. This type of variance is common with young players and is fixable. Javier is widely believed to have a deal with the Twins for $4.0 million, which I believe would be the highest July 2nd bonus of all-time for a shortstop. The Twins’ pool is just under $4.0 million, which means trades could push it to nearly $6 million, so they could easily stay under after a Javier signing, with just one minor trade to add more pool space.