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2014 Twins lineup and offensive expectation
DocBauer posted a blog entry in A Realistic Fix to the 2014 Twins
Pitchers and catchers report! There are very few sweeter words in the English language. Time to roll out your Major League, Bull Durham and Field of Dreams DVD's (possibly For Love of the Game). Don't tell me I'm the only one! I have no illusions of a World Series appearance for the TC boys this year. I think it's clear we are a year or two away. And while arguments could be made the Twins haven't done enough to address all of their short comings this offseason, there is also no doubt the Twins have invested more FA money than any time in their history to improve a pretty pathetic pitching staff. I don't think there is any doubt Nolasco, Hughes, a year removed from TJ surgery Pelfrey, Correia and whoever is short of a contending staff, but still filled with more potential and intrigue than anything we've run out to the mound ever 5th day for a few years now. And while there are no guarantees, there is definitely some potential there, with some great young arms to supplement and replace on the near horizon. And perhaps I or someone else will start a post regarding such. But for now, this post is strictly about the lineup and offense for the 2014 Twins. There is a generalization of optimism that comes with spring training. For a time at least, everyone is improved, and everyone is a contender. Being a realist...we are probably not. Again, a year or two away. And honestly, the Twins have done very, very little to address the lineup for 2014. Almost depressingly nothing. (And this from someone who would rival Seth in the area of optimism) There could yet be a move, even a small one, that will provide at least some sense of depth and option with the lineup. But as of yet, nothing of value. Understand, I am in NO WAY advocating, or admonishing the Twins for failing to act/sign, the likes of Cano or Ellsbury. Would you really spend that kind of money and years on 30 y.o. players with Dozier, Arcia, Rosario, Sano, Buxton, etc, already contributing or nearly ready to? But where does that leave us lineup/offensively for 2014? Honestly, just being healthy would provide a better and more productive lineup than 2013. But where do we go from here? I've been a Brian Dozier supporter/fan for some time now. And after a slow and disappointing start to last season, he really kicked things in to gear. Yes, his AVG and OB could have been better, but his milb numbers showed a slash of .298/.370, indicating he should show improvement in each of these areas in 2014, even if his power numbers slide somewhat. And what's really interesting is that until the 2012 debacle, Dozier had ONLY spent 2 1/2 years in the minors, and showed general improvement each season. Joe Mauer. Do I really have to say more? If he doesn't win a gold glove the next few years at 1B it will be a huge surprise. He is the man with a career split of .323/.405/873 OPS. What will he do with a season of 150 games? A healthy Willingham at DH, Molitor helping him in the transition, occasionally LF, has career averages of .256/.359/.830 OPS with averages of 28Dbls and 25 HR's. Being a near rookie, it's hard to place numbers on Arcia, but I have to believe every number has to improve in his second season. I'd expect 30 doubles and 20 plus HR's roughly in 500 AB's. Plouffe may never perform the way we wish he would. But rough calculations have him hitting .242/.305 with 25Dbls and 19 H's n 500 AB's. If he actually got 500 AB's at this point I'd hope for a bit more. Hicks in CF hitting only in the .240 range with an OB above .300 with 30 doubles, double digit HR's and pushing 20+ SB's with excellent defense is still a big help with the potential for more. Pinto, forgetting what he did in MLB last season, only taking his last 2 seasons of milb stats and reducing 20% to allow for a full season of rookie regression would still provide .243/.306 with 27Dbls and 13+HR's in 500 AB's. Shortstop, Florimon, Escobar or Bartlett is certainly open to debate. There is nothing earth shattering here, but still some optimism. The biggest problem I see is lead off. Can Presley, even for one season, provide something acceptable? I don't know that Mastro or Hicks can provide the answer. Was hoping for a nice role player who could help/platoon. But to this point, that player/person has not been signed/identified. What say you about the lineup for 2014 at this point? -
Article: TD Top Prospects: #2 Miguel Sano
DocBauer replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I hope Sano is ready to begin the season at AAA, rock the first half of the season and be promoted mid season where he continues to produce and establish himself as a future star. But I also want Meyer to do the exact same thing. And I want Gibson to be 100% ready out of ST, make the rotation and never leave. And I want Buxton to do the same thing at AA, get promoted to AAA mid season, continue to shine, look great in September, and establish himself as a budding all star and permanent fixture in CF for the next dozen years starting in 2015. And all of these things could really happen. But...but...they might not. Especially in the cases of Buxton and Sano and how young they are, 20 and 21 early season. This is NO inditement as to their talent or potential. In fact, it's actually just the opposite! They are both SO talented that it makes what they have done already, and will yet do, all the more impressive considering their youth. They'll get here. It will be soon. We're all impatient for it. But Sano specifically in this case, would not be hurt by a brief return to AA to begin the year. While his AVG was down there and strikeouts a little high, so was his power, walks, OB and production. But I could see managers, coaches and scouts, (who watched him in person all season), determine that a month or so to get in a groove, beat up on people, conquer that AA level just a little bit more before moving up to AAA with even more confidence. This wouldn't in any way "set him back" or even slow him down. In fact, it might even speed up his development to gain momentum, keep it going, and shoot right to the Twins sometime second half. Now, he could just as easily ale in ST and prove he's immediately ready for Rochester and AAA competition. Simply stating no need to rush him, and no need to panic if the Twins are a little conservative the first month or so. -
Article: Second Chance for Aaron Hicks
DocBauer replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Guerrier was brought in for some insurance, not a bad thing, but insurance for after the season starts as I doubt he's even ready for opening day. Which is fine. Unless we are hit by a rash of injuries, I feel we're deep enough to withstand a bruise or strain or two to the bullpen arms in ST. As for Bartlett, I felt he was a cheap, risk-free signing to compete for a bench spot. Probably after spending some time getting additional at bats at AAA shaking off rust. But if he is truly healthy, and can be something close to the player he was before 2011 it would be a big boost for the team in general. Not only for some speed and a solid bat and plate discipline, but as an experienced and calming influence on the field and in the dugout. He couldn't do enough to hope to pull the Twins over the top of some magic summit, but he could nudge a few players and the Twins record further up the slope toward the top of that peak. -
Article: Second Chance for Aaron Hicks
DocBauer replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
At the risk of beating the topic to death, repeating myself from previous posts as well as echoing others here, Hicks has always been a very talented player, well thought of, and a top prospect. One poor, somewhat injury filled and rushed season should not make some so quick to judge his future. As has been pointed out, he obviously is not the first or last young player to stumble upon first introduction to MLB. Hicks has reportedly shown a pattern his entire young career with taking some time to "catch up" to his level, starting slowly at first. 2009 and 2010 at Beloit are full season examples where he produced OK numbers the first year, and greatly improved all numbers the following year. 2011 was rather disappointing at high A, before rebounding in a BIG way in 2012 at AA. As has been pointed out here previously, after an initial awful beginning to last season, he was actually showing improvement at the plate last season before injuries seemed to stall him. I wonder how we might be talking about Mr. Hicks at this point if he had better health last season and had continued to improve over the course of the season, even if slowly. I know this, if he can't set the world on fire, but can hold his own, gain experience, growth and development and simply provide excellent defense in CF, and hit even in the .240 range with an OB% above .300 with double digit HR's, 20+SB's, push 30 DBL's or so, he is an asset for our club near the bottom of the order. Not only for some power and speed, but for the defense he brings to our pitching staff, as well as allowing Presley to play LF, more appropriate for his skill level, and keeps Willingham mostly at DH and not in the field. Now, as to the future, I think he's more than capable of a great deal more. But for now, I'd be very happy with that kind of production for 2014. I think the entire club is made better by his presence. -
Article: VOTE: Most Iconic Twins Moment
DocBauer replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
48 years old, and been a Twins fan since I was about 5. My exposure to the Twins for a majority of my life was a few games on cable at my grandmother's house growing up in South Dakota, but mostly on 57.0 WNAX out of Yankton on transistor, car and alarm clock radios. Fighting static on late night games, and my father teaching me the game on weekends or travels in the car. The professional, dignified voice of Herb Carneal will always be THE TWINS for me. I even recall watching/helping my father and family members milk cows in the evening at my grandfather's farm in northern South Dakota on visits, and me listening to a little radio hung up on a hook and offering up updates on the current game. I remember the Calvin Griffin era very well. I remember Koosman, Goltz and Marshall fondly, amongst others. Cubbage, Wilfong, Smalley and Wynegar and others. I can even recall Carew before leaving for the west coast. I sat in my first car cheering on Gaetti, Hrbek, Brunansky and others in the early 80's when a young kid named Kirby Puckett made his MLB debut. So many other memories over the years! But for all those years, while both World Series wins were memorable and completely thrilling, the '87 victory holds a special place for me. I remember total excilleration that my team had finally climbed the mountain, and was brought to tears with utter joy. My only regret being that my father and I, living 3 hours apart, were unable to watch the series together. Perhaps strangely, what I remember most was not the series itself, but the ALCS between the Twins and the Tigers. The Twins went from worst to first that year, and the Tigers won 98 games, the best record in all of baseball, and were the prohibitive favorite. The Twins out pitched and outplayed Sparky Anderson's boys. One of the strangest memories I have is of Randy Bush having a great series and surprising with a couple key SB. And those games I was able to watch with my father. And there was a sense that something was happening with our team that was special.- 46 replies
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Article: TD Top Prospects: #5 Eddie Rosario
DocBauer replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
My guess that they will rotate Polanco at SS on Goodrum's days off, as well as each of them rotating between 2B as well. I have to believe Turner would be an instant grab for the Twins to grab if available, and if he continues to shine. But the draft is still way off, and players rise and fall in value before then. Despite questions as to our SS prospects, they themselves will no doubt answer some of those questions with the season ahead. While Turner would seem a tantalizing pick, in the unsure world of draftable prospects, I subscribe, usually, to the BPA, and don't agree necessarily with drafting just by position. Further, I'd keep Rosario at 2B just as long as possible to see what kind of 2B potential we truly have there. He could undoubtedly flip back to the OF very easily if he can't play the position well enough, or is blocked by Dozier, or someone else. Further, if he proves himself at the position well enough, he provides either greater trade value, or allows Dozier to perhaps being traded. And while I have great faith that Hicks will yet prove himself as an excellent defensive corner OF who can fill in at CF, and provide power and speed, and feel the rather athletic Arcia will continue to improve to at least decent in the OF, Rosario is a very talented OF option should Hicks not cut it, or Arcia need to be moved to DH and part time OF. As an OF, Rosario may never provide the true HR power one hopes for in a corner OF, however, his overall game/talent level would indicate an exciting player with multiple skills who can cover a lot of ground, hit, spray various XB hits, take extra bases and steal bases. If his OB can improve even a little, with his skill set, he could be a valuable top of the order player, and at worst, a dangerous lower spot hitter regardless of position. I have doubts he will hit 20 plus HR as he did early in his career, but don't forget his quick hands and athleticism, as well as his youth and rather rapid ascension up the milb latter. You might yet see better power once he acclimates to his level. And as a side note, with all due respect to the talent and abilities of Santana and Polanco, and by no means dismissing them as potential quality offensive as well as defensive SS's, Goodrum just might surpass anyone in the system at SS. He is one of my "picks to click" on the milb level this year. He doesn't need to explode in to his frame, just muscle up a bit more, and have the proverbial light start to come on. Something I think we began to see last season. -
Great arguments on both sides. And without a superior glove or high OPS, I can clearly understand those not thrilled with his addition. But let me point out we are talking about bringing something, overall, to the team that makes it deeper, more flexible, and thusly, better. We are talking about a versatile utility player to the team, not a star or starter. On a 25 man roster you have 8 presumed, primary starting position players, 9 in most cases in the AL where you assume a primary DH. Virtually every team carries an 11 man pitching staff, and in many cases a 12 man staff. Having to have at least one backup C means a bench of 3 or 4 players at the most. At least one of those must be a quality backup middle inf. That now leaves an additional 2 or 3 bench players. You have two choices here, generally speaking. One is a PH/part time DH type with a decent/big bat who hopefully can fill in decently at one position, OR, a versatile utility type player who can play multiple positions and hopefully offer up at least SOME offensive contribution. There is nothing about Bonifacio that screams or even whispers high quality starter. But again, we're talking useful, versatile utility player. A career BA of .262 and career OB% of .322 with excellent speed and stolen base potential with at least decent defense at multiple positions on an occasional, not every day, basis. His numbers don't stink, he gives us the ability for extra and SB, and positional flexibility to fill in.
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Hoping I don't end up just repeating Stringer here, but some points I'd like to make. I hope Escobar, still quite young, some talent, a reputation as a quality and versatile glove man who can fill in 4+ positions, kicks it in ST and establishes himself as the next in a long line of quality Twins utility players; re: Newman, Reboulet, Hocking, Punto to just name a few. But while our starting lineup still needs help (as well as health and future promotion) quality teams needs bench strength as well. And the stronger, deeper and more versatile a team's bench, the more that team can adapt to injury, matchups, days off, and late game moves. No matter how well Escobar may perform, there is room for additional help. Now, I don't know that Bonifacio is worth 3M, but he is definitely worth a decent investment, and would be a HUGE plus to the Twins. He brings solid defense to a number of positions in the OF and Inf, he switch hits, has a decent career OB%, and provides real speed and SB potential on the base baths. He allows you a quality fill in player who can contribute at the top and bottom of the lineup, and helps you play situational baseball. I firmly believe the Twins need one more quality bat added to the lineup, and unless I am completely missing something here, the addition of Morales as a DH backup 1B makes so much sense, affordable sense, that I find it almost mind boggling its not done yet. No telling what Kubel has left, if anything, Willingham will be gone at the end of the year if not traded before. And to be honest, if he continues to linger on the DL (hopefully not) the Twins wouldn't be devastated by a cut. But the bat and offensive potential of Morales would still be there. However, there is hardly a single roster I can come up with that doesn't have room for a solid bat/OB guy with defensive flexibility and speed.
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Article: Q&A with Chad Christensen
DocBauer replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Just as a side note, he also played SS I believe, for the Big Red. By no means would I advocate a switch, there are reasons he was moved to the OF. But it is an example of his athleticism and potential as a utility player down the road. Perhaps in addition to the four corner positions, he could provide some backup at 2B. -
Article: Kurt Suzuki - Signed to be the starter?
DocBauer replied to jorgenswest's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I feel that a C is much like a true or natural PG in basketball. Neither position/player can always be defined in the absolutes of statistics. In many cases its about how they run the team and a "feel" of how they do so and how the team and players around them respond. In both cases, it often can be just taking control of situations and being a calming influence to teammates. Like many managers/coaches, I think Gardy likes to, at least initially, trust the veteran player. I feel this may be true of Suzuki vs Pinto. And I wouldn't be surprised to see Suzuki as the primary backstop opening day. As has been pointed out, this allows Pinto to not only earn the position, but have mentoring from Suzuki, Mauer and Steinbach. Three experienced and very good sources! And thus far, I don't recall anything negative from Gardy in regard to his belief in Punto. I believe he slowly overtakes Suzuki and becomes the primary option by all star break at the latest. -
I had Capuano on my " cheap flyer" list before Pelfrey signing. Despite a sub .500 win percentage, his peripherals are ok and when he has a healthy year he tends to log pretty good innings. And I am in the camp of firm belief Correia WILL have tradeable value sometime during ST. There is always a team that missed out, gambled on someone, or has someone hurt or rehabbing and not ready. The Twins could even afford to eat a portion of the contract and still turn out fine. And to another team, they should see his contract as not only affordable, but it's only one year. While not against a Capuano signing in the least, and while I'd love to see a LH in the rotation, I don't feel at this time, the team still in rebuild mode, that we have to have said LH just for the sake of such. With the Garza signing probably setting the market at a lower bar than previously anticipated, I have changed my tune on E Santana. I feel this is one time where I would give up that 2nd round pick and go for a 3 year deal with the better pitcher even if another RH. Correia can still be traded. Pelfrey is only 2 seasons. And if/when Gibson and Meyer are BOTH ready, I can't believe we couldn't find a trade partner for one of our other signed SP. Also not opposed still to a cheap flyer on Johan regardless. To me, make the draft pick sacrifice, sign E Santana but like Capuano as a second option. Still want us to sign the bat of Morales and one of the solid utility guys out there in addition, but that's a different discussion.
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I play GM all the time. Usually with my father, a very passionate, educated and lifelong Twins fan in his own right. We always come to great conclusions with a final statement of; "now if they would just listen to us." Lol The way the market has played out the past month, or perhaps the way it has slowed down and not played out, with the exception of Tanaka and now Garza, my thoughts on spending have changed somewhat. I do not subscribe to the theory of "spend money since we have it". I know money not spent this year is not squirreled away to spend later. However, not overspending does open the door for additions next season and beyond. And as GM, I am concerned not only with putting a better, more competitive team on the field this season, but building for 2015 and 2016, and not handcuffing myself. My first action would be to sign E Santana to a 3 yr deal in the 36-40M range as has been speculated. I was previously opposed to such a signing, favoring Garza for various reasons, but like Santana and believe the Garza signing and slower market to this point has changed the dynamics of the FA market. Next I would trade Correia to someone in need of rounding/stabilizing their rotation. (Decent, solid SP is always in need somewhere) And I believe Correia would be attractive somewhere, especially considering the low salary as well as only a one year term. Gladly move him for a low or high A prospect of decent quality. Would even consider eating a portion of his salary if necessary, but prefer not to, hence the A level player return. I wish I had a reliable crystal ball to tell me for certain what to expect from Willingham, Kubel and Hicks this season. But I don't. So I have to go with my gut and personal expectations, tempered with the immediate vs the building for the future. I believe Willingham will rebound and hit close to career norms this season, primarily as a DH and occasional LF. I feel Kubel might have life left after a one year plunge, and I welcomed the low risk signing initially, though I have doubts how he will truly respond. I also want to improve my bench and its versatility. I have debated and now decided that K Morales is a perfect signing for my team. He is only 30 when the season starts, provides much needed power to my lineup, can provide an occasional start at 1B to give Mauer a day off, and provides an excellent PH when not in the lineup. Someone suggested 3 and 24M and I'll go with that, but have a feeling he might be had for 3 and 18-21M with the way the market has slowed. Willingham might be traded tomorrow, during ST, a month or two or all star break during the season, or not at all and just walk away at the end. Any way, I have Morales at DH for two more seasons to help my lineup, and take a little pressure off Sano, Arcia, and to a lesser extent Pinto and possibly Plouffe. And with Morales in the fold, I wouldn't feel as bad selling low on Willngham. He's gone end of the year anyway, and even if he rebounds to his career norms, how much value in return do we really expect from an older player with mediocre defense in the OF? Now, forgive me if I've missed a signing here, but last I checked utility guys Turner and Baker were still available. I'd sign one of them, and would still consider Betemitt for his bat and occasional Inf duty. I'm going to pick J Baker for his overall flexibility for this scenario. I am a strong believer in Hicks, his talent and potential, as well as his ability to adapt, grow and develop from his experiences last season, as well as being optimistic that he was not only showing some improvement before injury, but that Glynn reported he was probably Rochester's best player the last few weeks of the season. Additionally, while I feel Presley is best used as a 4th OF, he may be our best lead off option for the time being as a decent defensive player who hits a little, gets OB a little, hits for a few XB's, can take an extra base and provide a little speed on the base paths. Nothing special, but a little bit of everything. So my 2014 Twins are as follows: 1) Presley=LF/RF 2) Dozier=2B 3) Mauer=1B 4) Willingam=DH/LF 5) Morales=DH 6) Arcia=RF/LF 7) Plouffe=3B 8) Pinto/Suzuki=C 9) Hicks=CF 10) Floriman/Escobar=SS Kubel as a LH DH/PH/OF and Baker as an OF/INF utility Yes, I know a batting order only has 9 spots! I'm only showing it as 10 to examine some of the daily versatility available, along with Baker and possibly Kubel fitting in. My rotation has: 1&2) Santana 2&1) Nolasco 3) Hughes 4) Pelfrey 5) Deduno, Diamond, Worley and hopefully Gibson My bullpen includes: Perkins, Burton, Fien, Duensing, Thielbar, Swarzak and Tonkin or Pressley. Yes, I have a 26 man roster. But this accounts for injury, pseudo injury, trade, minor options and a SP staff that might allow for an 11 man staff instead of 12. I am OK payroll wise for this season as well as the future. I have a solid rotation with two #2 starters who occasionally pitch like #1's, a young, talented and somewhat enigmatic #3 with lots of potential now that he is out of NY, that park, a fresh start, and Anderson and Cueller to lead him, a potentially very solid and above average #4, and several options a #5, hopefully Gibson in the near if not immediate future. And there is no-one signed long enough or high enough to prevent a trade to open a spot in the next season or two for Meyer or May. (Or a trade or additional FA signing as well) I have a deep and versatile bullpen that performed well last season, should be better this season without being overworked, and has potential depth in the minors. With my couple additions and return to health, my lineup provides at least decent overall production, some versatility, quality defense at most positions, and like the SP staff, there is nothing in years or salary to block top prospects such as Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Santana, etc.
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Article: Twins Organizational Depth Chart - Outfielders
DocBauer replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
With progression, talent, and a little bit of luck perhaps: 2015 Twins OF Hicks-Buxton-Arcia----Presley &/or healthy Mastro as reserves. Possibly Plouffe. Walker and Ortiz close and waiting in the wings. -
MLB Draft Insider Top 14 in' 14 Minnesota Twins
DocBauer replied to cmb0252's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Also a little surprised as to the high ranking of Turner. Every report I've ever seen has him as so good defensively he could catch in the majors now. That's impressive. But of course, he has to hit as well. Now, he hit fairly well in college, but this is, and is going to continue to be, a whole different level of competition. Reading between the lines a bit in this scouting report, I see decent hitting potential, some patience and pitch recognition, and some decent power potential IF he can gain a little better bat speed and possibly weight shift through the zone. I find myself wondering if Dwyer and others might be able to make a few adjustments over the next couple of years to gain that bit of bat speed that might make him a more dangerous hitter. While there was certainly nothing remotely negative about the Twins pitching prospects, I think I am a bit more bullish on them than Mr. Crawford. He obviously likes Meyer a lot and believes in his potential, but I think we all know he needs a little more time and a little more mechanical consistency. And that's true of many young hurlers, especially tall ones. (Think Randy Johnson and you aren't far off) Watching him pitch in the AFL, you could see him get sloppy once in a while. And then BAM, you wondered what he just did, just like the batter. He seems relatively high on May, (number 10 on his list for what might be the best system), but then seems to cut him down a bit. I don't think there is any question this is a big year for May, whether he starts in AAA, or AA again with a quick move up. And I am not advocating him becoming an ace, but to me, referring to him as a #4 at this point is a little off. Yes, I know he says potentially more, but if becomes our #4 starter, hallelujah! Lol I find myself disappointed in posters who are already calling the trade for him a failure, or clamoring for him to be sent to the pen. Really? Just a couple years ago we'd be optimistically promoting him as one of our very top prospects. In six seasons in the minors, he's only had an opponent BA above .250 twice, his first year and last. He has allowed fewer hits than IP his entire young career. Except by one, his GCL debut of 12 innings, he has had more SO's than IP every year. He's shown improvement each time he repeated a level, or a partial level, including last season, though the improvement might have been slighter. But it was there, and reports have him finishing strong. I feel expectations and hope might be skewing perspective slightly. I very much like Berrios as well. And perhaps he will reach a very solid #3 status, but his stuff seems to play well so far, he is an excellent athlete with a dedicated training regiment, and seems to remind me of a young Pedro Martinez type who defies prototypical "size" parameters. Youngsters like Berrios, Stewart, Thorpe and Gonsalves are so hard to predict not only due to control, and learning to pitch, developing that second or third option, but also physical growth adding potential velocity. But how can you not be excited for the potential of these youngsters? -
MLB Draft Insider Top 14 in' 14 Minnesota Twins
DocBauer replied to cmb0252's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Very good read and some real positives. Not that anyone can really say much negative about the Twins system at this point both in quality and depth. But it is very interesting some of the variations of top 10, 15 (14 in this case) and top 20 lists. Santana's rank is a little surprising to me. Not because of his athleticism or potential, but simply because he lacks overall refinement. Like anyone who posts their opinions here, I/we seldom get to see these kids in person. We rely on word of mouth and various scouting reports and box score stats. With all due respect to minor league coaches and instructors everywhere, based on the youth of prospects, uncertain field conditions, travel times and bus lag, lesser quality players around them, I sometimes wonder if we get too caught up in error totals. I think potential based on range, hands, body control/athleticism may be better projectable factors. As has been pointed out in other blogs, and I think someone willing to do the research could confirm, a good many Inf. prospects show larger error totals than they show in the majors. Further, I believe if you take even a casual glimpse at most MLB SS's you'd see higher error total initially that lower as they gain more experience. I have a feeling that lower in the Twins system, Goodrum may actually turn out to be an even greater talent and the better player. And while I wish and hope Santana learns to curb his patience at the plate, if he can harness all the defensive ability we've heard about, hit, run and provide some of the XB power we've seen and heard about, he could be a very valuable player for us, even if at the bottom of the order. -
A couple thought on a possible .500 team potentially, veterans on the team and addition veteran FA targets. Forget contention, just hitting .500 would be exciting and very welcome to us fans, just having a team/product that has a legit chance to win daily/nightly. It also helps the turnstiles, which can't be ignored. And further, it helps the youngsters maintain a more positive winning approach with an even brighter future ahead. And while I still hope and favor a Garza signing, (you can always find a market for excess SP), I don't believe in the idea of signing that veteran DH bat or someone like Drew necessarily because I feel you have tempory options in Willingham, Kubel perhaps, and Florimon/Escobar (which has been debated elsewhere at length) I definitely feel the team is transitioning this year, to a small degree last year, to something young, exciting, and built for future contention. And while I do think the Twins this next season, with a better and deeper starting staff, better health for the likes of Mauer and Willingham could approach that .500 mark, I'm not eager to take on contacts of older players to fill a short term roll at this time. I think the Twins are better served running mostly as is for now, and then re-examine a veteran option or two next off season to fill in a gap or two.
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Going to be a very, very interesting year to say the least. And transition is a perfect word description. Some of that transition began last season. A few story lines to follow that might seem obvious as well as not so: After 2 full seasons and some welcome streaks, is this the year Plouffe begins to transition in to a player with at least SOME consistency so we know we have a valuable utility piece to plug in somewhere? Does Presley, temporarily pressed in to full time duty and probably lead off role, transition in to a valuable 4th OF option? He has some skills. And the great OF depth the Twins posess is a bit misleading as many are more than a year away. Does Hughes forget about Bronx nightmares, work a little more on his off speed stuff with the help of Anderson and/or Cuellar, have better confidence with a change of scenery and half of his starts not in a bandbox, and transition in to a 180-200 innings and 14-16 wins SP? Certainly there are other stories to watch with eager anticipation as well, (and I am not including vets such as Willingham or Kubel rounding back to form as we're talking about the future and not temps) There is every reason from talent to past track records to expect Dozier to improve on Avg and OB, for Arcia to frustrate at times but put up some solid and potentially excellent numbers, for Hicks to rebound and begin to get a foothold on consistency and establish himself as the temp CF and future corner OF. Even Florimon, all debates aside, could approach more of his milb mean and at least temporarily make everyone feel pretty decent about SS. Pinto has the ability to emerge as a solid new C with an exciting bat. Sano and Rosario have legitimate chances to become fixtures around all star break-ish and by Sept. Not holding my breath for Buxton, but what if? On the mound, whether he takes hold of a spot immediately, or a month or so in the season, this should be the year we see Gibson transition in to regular rotation starter with upside. Healthy, study, AFL innings to help boost him along, we could see Meyer mid season. May, with his durability, high heat and SO totals doing what he has done his whole career to this point, show improvement the next season, we could be talking about a Sept look see. This is some exciting stuff as we transition to 2015.
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Article: A Snapshot of Twins Payroll
DocBauer replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Worley and Gibson will get their shots some time this season. And hopefully/probably Meyer at some point as well, even if a short term, pushing innings limit but getting aquainted with the major leagues and auditioning for next season, term. May a possibility, but Meyer probably more of a sure thing for this season. Big, big year for May. Every previous season in his milb career he's shown improvement when repeating a season, or a partial season. Even last year, while the improvements might have been minimal, there was still improvement. And if reports are correct, he pitched his best at the end of the year, which is a very positive sign I feel. -
Couto: Albers will battle for 5th spot
DocBauer replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Depends on Deduno's health and Gibson's readiness to claim the 5th spot right out of ST. If either of those things happen, no chance barring injury opportunity. He simply needs t be ready to do the best he can at AAA and be a ready call up for spot duty or the bullpen, which may be his best spot considering control and bulldog like competitiveness. However, Deduno not ready, the Twins feeling they just want to give Gibson a little time to pitch consistently ever 5th day at Rochester, that would leave Albers battling Diamond and Worley for the 5th spot to begin the year. If that takes place, he may have as good a chance as either one of those two. -
A hypothetical for all to consider. Florimon produces the same great defense as last season, possibly/probably even better just from his 2013 experience, coaching, etc. And let's assume some offensive progression where he hits the rough averages of production he met during his full seasons in the minors (2007-2012). The numbers would look something like this: .249/.321/.354/.675OPS with 21Dbls/3triples/5HR/16Sb's Now, how does the debate look?
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To me, this is in no way a negative about or against Drew. He's a solid ball player. I would not be upset in the slightest if the Twins did sign him. In fact, I'd be pretty excited to have a decent defensive SS who can provide some OB% and a little power to make our whole lineup deeper and better. It's not even about the Twins sacrificing a 2nd round pick, for once, who has between a 10-20% chance, roughly, of reaching the majors and being a contributing ball player. (Though I AM opposed to doing this often) And its not about the financial investment in Drew per say. It's more about overall return. I defy anyone to look in their crystal ball and tell us exactly what Drew will do and be worth over the next 3 seasons offensively and defensively. Can't be done. So you have to make the best educated guess you can. Can only play one season at a time, so let's look at only next season for a moment. Drew's offense, probably, does equate higher than Floriman or Floriman/Escobar. But how much better, especially for a rebuilding club? Both of these two are younger than Drew by 4-6 years, both have at least a little upside to improve, (and some track history to prove it) and rate better defensively at a defensive first position. As a platoon, they might even approach Drew's OB and BA with more speed and the better defense. This for less than 1M vs 10M for less defense and how much better offense and how many more wins potentially? Now skip to 2015 and assume that SS just isn't what we want it to be, and our team is ready or almost ready to compete. Is 10M tied up in Drew worth the investment? What about Hardy or another FA SS that provides just as good or better offense with better defense, but we have $10M tied up in Drew? Or how about trading for a talented player from another club with better defense, as good or better offense, younger, and perhaps cheaper, but we still have $10M tied up in Drew? Just because the Twins have money to afford to spend, and show a willingness to spend for improvement, doesn't mean they SHOULD or HAVE to spend it all in one off season. This team, with the moves made so far, talent on the roster, talent rising over the course of this season, could be ready to make at least some kind of move over the next season or two. Having the flexibility to add to that team, not being tied to a player who may be in decline, makes more responsible financial and roster flexibility sense to me. Again, not a comment on Drew. Just a feeling of not being the right player at the right time to make a match for our Twins.
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Swarzak is a steal and should probably find a new agent. Lol Deunsing has decent stuff, is mostly proven, coming off a very solid year, especially when you look past the first month or so, and there are a whole lot of teams that would love to have a LHRP like him, especially for only 2M. Plouffe may or may not ever break out to be anything more than he's shown the past couple of seasons. Even a slight improvement in overall production, daily/consistently against RHP would make a lot of teams envious to have him around. I don't know that he will ever have the bat or consistency of a Cuddyer, (would love if he did), but his fielding at 3B is not poor (from what I have seen) and at this kind of salary, he could be a very valuable bench player at both INF corners, both OF corners, DH, PH, and even a little second perhaps. And hats off again to Twins management to avoid the whole messy process of arbitration hearings and bickerings and just settle fairly. Is there a team in the league, I wonder, who does a better job of just settling peacefully and fairly with their arb. elgible players?
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Article: What to Make of Trevor May?
DocBauer replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Despite the excitement and enthusiasm Revere provided for us, and his potential as a very solid defensive OF, and potential igniter, I think we all viewed the trade as a positive for the Twins last year. And while Worley was a huge disappointment, I think fans and press agreed that a hard throwing, IP machine with upside in May was the real "get" in the deal. And while we didn't get the big optimistic year we would have all liked from May, I don't know that one year removed we can really be down on the trade at this point. All of his numbers appear to have improved at least slightly. That is the optimistic side of things. Others would cite a lack of performance in repeating a level and league. But there are factors that are hard to calculate, (some mentioned) with changing teams, facing different hitters, adjusting to new coaching, working on different aspects of his game, etc. His milb numbers show consistent ability to answer when the bell rings. He has always allowed fewer hits than IP, maintained a good to solid BA against, and piled up the strikeouts. He's also shown improvement from one year to the next when repeating at least part of a level. (Even last season, just less so) I think the jury is still rightfully out. Of all the Twins prospects, May is one I'm watching very closely this year. Make or break I don't know. Pitchers all progress differently. WAY too much talent here to sour so soon. -
Also want to agree with Dave and cmathewson on Plouffe. Yes Plouffe is frustrating. No he hasn't lived up to expectations or seeming talent level to this point. Yes he has teased us. No he may not be a long term solution anywhere, or the second coming of Cuddyer to this point. But what else would you have the Twins do at this point? Dump a decent 3B with power and some potential still to replace him with ____________? What? Teams clamor to find someone to play a half-way decent 3B with some offense, and the Twins have someone there to hold the position until Sano is ready. We would all like Sano to win the job in ST, or by the all star break, but you can't count on that. Perhaps this year, with a full two seasons plus now under his belt, that Plouffe starts to round in to a more consistent form. Perhaps not. But at least he can keep the position warm for now with some contributions, and might still prove to be a valuable utility guy.
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I am very gratified to see the love for Deunsing especially. The young man has decent stuff, especially when allowed to just know his role in the pen and be allowed to pitch there. And I really think he proved that this year, especially in the second half of the season. I know there have been debates of varying degree as to how good the bullpen actually was this past season. And I feel various metrics can say whatever you want them to say, but when I look at the state of the rotation last season, and the IP of our pen, and the basics of record, ERA, etc. I see an overworked pen that was fairly balanced, and did a very solid job despite their vast overuse. And I feel the could be even better this year, and Deunsing is a big part of the equation, and at a relatively cheap price when one considers the dearth of solid LH relievers that have any sort of proven record. There is a reason teams scramble to find LH's who are upright and breathing for their teams. I've been a bit frustrated by those who simply and arbitrarily announce the Twins should just up and trade so and so out of the pen this off season. To what end? A strong bullpen is paramount to a competitive club and a winning club (eventually). And as I have stated, I believe the Twins have filler pieces that might prove themselves worthy, providing depth, from both sides of the mound. And not just those prospects in the lower minors, but even at AAA. But give me the guys who have shown what they can do, for now at least, instead of just removing proven commodities and plugging someone in and hoping they can do the job.

