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Everything posted by DocBauer
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I think "banish" is harsh and in-accurate. The kid was signed and developed as a SS. He's been regarded as a top 10/20 prospect in one of the top milb talent lists. His future is still very fluid. But whether he is a SS, CF, LF, super utility player, bat boy or bubblegum supervisor, he's clearly a talented and explosive athlete. The question is harnessing that talent on a consistent basis, regardless of position. He was thrust in to a mostly unfamiliar position due to ridiculous necessity, not because the Twins suddenly decided he couldn't play SS. He's outperformed anything any one of us could have expected, probably the Twins as well. But nobody has ever said he can't play SS or has been banished to the OF as a result. But I tell you what, many players end up excelling at different positions than originally expected. And that's OK.
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I'd love to invite debate and explanation of WAR and it's impact and reality. I'm no expert on advanced metrics, and I admit this freely. I think they have their place...at least to some degree...especially in a sport that is long established/obsessed with statistics to quantify performance and success. Is there anything in baseball that isn't measured? Forget the obvious such as BA, OB, or power numbers, RBI's, or situational hitting for positional players, or ERA or SO to BB percentages...we now measure everything from BABIP % to road/home and day/night BA. Now we try to interpret the rule book for the strike zone...which is NOT followed...vs pitching performance vs umpire strike calling vs catchers framing an obscure and poorly interpreted strike zone for each umpire to create a measurable statistic. (Shaking head) I think we sometimes hear or read certain modern age statistics and just nod our heads without regarding the very nature of said statistics. WAR, for instance. Someone prints/says/claims a player is plus or minus WAR and we just go "ooh" or "ahh". Once in a while we might even exclaim, "ah-ha!" I just read an article on another web site about Danny Santana. You know, the top 20/10 prospect, depending on who's prospect list you read, who is loaded with athletic talent and potential who needs to harness his ability on a consistent basis to amount to anything, but who has real potential. He's the speedy, talented SS with flashes of pop/power with range and good arm who began his first ever season at AAA to begin the 2014 season. Lack of OF/CF depth, brought about by some FO mismanagement, thrust him in to a mostly unfamiliar role of player CF AT THE ML LEVEL. And while everyone was surprised, enthralled, but certain of almost immediate regression/failure...the kid hit, and hit, and then hit some more. He bunted, stole bases, got extra base hits, and generally sparked a mundane lineup. When he went on the DL, I think most of us thought the magic carpet ride was probably over. Except, he came back playing and hitting as well as ever. Now, I don't pretend to have a crystal ball to tell Santana's future, but said statistical experts claim he is worth 1.9 games above WAR. So here is where I get confused. Despite making mistakes, he has largely been mostly OK in CF and gotten better as the season progresses. He has continued to be a huge spark for the Twins somewhat limited offense. And I don't think I'm the only one who noticed a dip in production when he was out. And the Twins overall record notwithstanding, experts state that the this surprising spark plug player has given the Twins roughly TWO more wins than any other ML average player could provide. Am I missing something here? I'm really interested if someone can explain a measurable of this nature. I hate to sound naive, because I'm not. And at the end of the day, baseball is still a team game. And a roster wins and loses together. But have statistics grown to an absurd level where a single player can be measured to the point of actually predicting wins and loses for a team?
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MUST SEE: Greatest Pic Of Tom Kelly, Ever
DocBauer replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Great picture! That is a man right there! Lol Seriously, TK is often seen as deadpan and dry. And there is no question TK has a very dry wit and sense of humor about him. But this photo, I think, shows the mind of guy players and close associates know and love. A guy who is anything but flamboyant, but also not afraid to have a little fun. Whether it's time for Gardy to go or not is not a point I wish it discuss at the moment. I love Gardy as a good guy and a good baseball man. And I've always loved TK the same way. I think we've been lucky to have both men represent our team and the Twins Way the past 27. That's right...27 years these two men have lead our favorite ML team through thick and thin...and let's be honest here...it's been mostly thick. I love that TK still scouts for us. I love that he remains involved in ST along with other past greats. I hope that like TK, when his time comes to go, Gardy will stay involved as a scout, mentor, or occassional broadcaster. Happy Birthday TK, and thank you for all you've done for our Twins! -
Very grateful for a website for the Vikings that will, hopefully, provide the type of community that TD has for us passionate Twins fans. (Actually been hoping/dreaming of such a companion site) I believe I have successfully got myself joined to VJ, but haven't had time to play yet or investigate it properly. Planning on still being DocBauer, it's just me. Lol Question though, if anyone knows, do our avatars continue over to the new site? Or are we able to create a Vikings specific avatar over there even while keeping our same account name?
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Where We Are, Where We Are Going, By the Numbers
DocBauer commented on alskntwnsfn's blog entry in Alskn's Northern Lights
Surprisingly, it's not the rotation that concerns me for 2015. I like Hughes, Gibson, Nolasco, Milone, May, Meyer, Pelfrey and a couple secondary "just in case" options available. Mostly young, talented, and potentially the deepest and best SP staff in years. My concerns are the offense and bullpen. Mauer being Mauer for at least 140 games, hopefully 150, is HUGE. Dozier is for real. Arcia is wild, but young, and immensely talented. Hopefully the lightbulb goes on in 2015, or at the very least, the dimmer switch gets turned way up. I like Vargas a lot. He has a nice swing, decent contact, power and OB from both sides. I think it's just a question of how soon holes get closed and adjustments get made. Suzuki could lose 50 points off his Avg, still make decent contact and have a decent OB and be a helpful bat in the bottom third of the order. Pinto could greatly assist the overall production from the C spot. Plouffe has really grown, and I don't think he's hit his ceiling yet. Of course, he is keeping the hot corner warm for Sano. Escobar and Santana have simply done everything we could have dared dream; hit, play defense, perform, and perform well without going up in a puff of smoke that so many expected. The problem offensively is one nice veteran, power, RBI bat to consistently hit at the 4 spot behind Mauer. This is key. It allows Arcia, Vargas, and others, to hit 5 and lower to fill out and deepen the lineup. We could make a major trade. However, if we can, I'd rather find a quality FA to fill this spot/responsibility and hold down one of the corner OF spots. I'm not ready to trade prospects just yet for that "piece" we need. I'd rather wait one more year before going down that path. The bullpen, to me, is a conundrum. We have a premium closer. We have a very solid guy in Fien who I really like, though I'm not sure he's really the 8th inning guy you want to count on. I'm high on Thielbar and like Deunsing. I think Darnell might be a really good LHer for the pen, who can get SO's BTW. And there are a couple other LH options who could help. From the right side, we have Swarzak, down a little this season but known and reliable, along with possibles like Deduno, Pino and now Pressly. The minors offer Tonkin, Achter, Oliveros and Guerra. The real bite here is these guys all offer real ability and potential, and are all having excellent seasons. But is there ONE that makes you feel comfortable pairing them with Fien to give us that 7-8 inning duo we can count on? On the one hand, you want to audition each of them and give them their shot. On the other hand, you really want to sign that one really good FA setup guy to help solidify things. -
Gibson is absolutely part of the 2015 rotation. And there is room to improve. We still haven't seen the best of Mr Gibson. Then you pencil in Hughes as well. And as well as he's pitched, I also wonder if we've yet to see his full potential as well. Thus far, there is nothing to indicate Nolasco is headed down either the dreaded "bust" or "TJ" roads. It would appear he is a young 30yo veteran who simply suffered a bad and disappointing season due to minor injury he tried to play through, manifested all the more being his first year on a new contract with a new team. I like this first 3. Milone might not be anything special, but appears to be a very solid option. A long term future with the Twins might not be in the cards. But, he seems to be a very solid LHSP who has put up pretty solid numbers thus far. His first start was solid as well. It would seem we have a solid guy here, and a really nice pickup from Ryan. Pelfrey? I don't know. He wasn't my first choice to sign. (It was Kazmir. And Kazmir before 2013 as well) But if finally healthy and ready, he could provide a solid fill in or temp SP. I still can't forget that he actually looked pretty good in '13 before tiring. He's not an answer, but again, he might fill a role. No question May and Meyer are the future, and hopefully the future is 2015 if not now. But how great is it to look at that list of 7 SP candidates for 2015 instead of trying to sort through some of the AAAA fodder we've had to work with and wade through the past few seasons? And before 2015 is over and done, we may see Berrios, Gilmartin, And possibly Darnell and Duffy as options?
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I think wins is a telling stat. It indicates a SP simply pitching well enough for his team to have a chance to win. Yes, it is still a team sport, and defense, runs scored, and a bullpen holding leads are all factors. So to me wins definitely don't tell the whole story. Witness King Felix a couple years ago for Seattle. He was clearly the best, most dominate SP in the league even though his win total was small. Wins don't tell the whole story to be sure. But they DO indicate your pitcher threw well enough to get the win. I'm very pleased with Gibson this season. And other than a few Jeckyl/Hyde performances, could you really expect more in his first full season? I know all pitchers would have inflated statistics if you threw out their poor games, but didn't someone post an interesting stat recently that showed Gibson's numbers were greatly influenced, to the negative, from only a handful of bad starts? Wish I could recall that post. I know this is highly debated, but I feel the Twins handled Gibson perfectly. While showing real signs last season in Rochester, he also showed inconsistencies that gave them pause to promote him. When they did, we didn't see anything special. But I really think the ML experience he received went a long way toward getting him prepared for 2014. And while we could engage again in another huge debate, I still see strong parallels to Meyer this season and Gibson last season. He has to be added to the 40 man, no choice about it. Therefore, I still hope he will get at least some ML time before the year is done to give him similar experience to build for 2015.
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I know it's way, way too early to really address this past June draft, but as some have commented on here about it, I think it's fair to say that thus far, it's looking very good so far. I hate to say it, but Gordon might be better than expected, with a skill set that might be higher than the scores I read on his 20-80 scale. Burdi looks like the real deal. I agree he's in AA next year, whether immediately, or shortly after a dip in the Ft Meyers pool. The majors might not be out of the question at some point in 2015. Curtiss looks good so far, his last start more so. Not fully converting to a SP role as he did start some at Texas did he not? Max Murphy has been very impressive as well. Mental blank, who is the other reliever doing so well? From Oregon, yes?
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Is bubble wrap illegal? I mean seriously, how much more cam happen to one poor kid in a single season? I feel I want to re-visit Nick's article on bad luck just in regard to Buxton solely. I have to say, my first instinct is to just shut him down for the rest of the season. And perhaps they still will. We still know so little about concussions, their affects, treatments, degrees, etc. Twins, between Koskie and Morneau alone have suffered as much as anyone. It does appear that like other injuries, there are degrees of severity, and with each player/person being their own unique physical specimen, it also appears to have different affect as well. Should he recover quickly with no ill affects, I guess I can see the wisdom in still getting a little time in before the season ends as a jumping board to the AFL.
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Right time right place? A raw athlete who's lightbulb just clicked at the right time? I dunno. But this kid just won't fail.
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Agree with Brock, Escobar is not in the mix, he's the guy. Does he have to maintain? Yes. So far, he's done that. We have enough of a season, enough AB's to begin thinking he might be sustainable. Should Santana be out of the mix? No. He can still play it, might have a future there, even part time, so there's no reason not to let him continue taking infield and getting some starts there. But what Escobar has done this season is something we've all been waiting and hoping for since...since...Guzman left?
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Absolutely right about Mauer, Shane. Some are so focused on what he doesn't do..."how come such a big strapping guy isn't a pure power hitter"...that they lose focus of what he can and does do. It is not hyperbole to say he is one of the current generation's best pure hitters. Nor is it off base to compare him to Puckett, Gwynn or Boggs as earlier generation hitters. Healthy, and he has been most years of his career, he hits .300+ day, night, home, road, bases empty, runners on, days ending in Y, in the shower, in bed, falling out of bed, etc. And he'll toss in 38-42 doubles as well. Probably double digit HR's. He may never hit 20 HR again, but who knows. I do think healthy, post concussion, 150 games, fresher at 1B than behind the plate, I do think an uptick in most of his offensive categories shouldn't be unexpected. This would include at least slightly better HR numbers. While it could be an illusion, I sure hope not, Mauer was starting to look like Mauer before his recent DL stint. And when I toss out statements like "Mauer being Mauer", it's not meant to be glib. It simply indicates how special he is just being himself, not trying to be something others would make him. I do disagree, however, as to him hitting second. I still maintain a team's best pure hitter is best off at the third spot. With the likes of Santana, Buxton, Dozier...to a lesser degree Escobar and possibly Hicks...Rosario and Polanco on the way...I think the Twins have quality options for 1 & 2 to set the table for the offense, offering nice overall skill sets. One of those listed might also provide a dangerous option at 9. With Mauer at the 3rd spot, you've got an RBI producer and R provider right before Sano, Arcia, Vargas and others.
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2014 was supposed to be a big transition year...
DocBauer replied to DocBauer's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
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Seth, I am 100% on board with you. College or professional, in any sport, it's virtually impossible to only hire and promote from within. At some point, you must reach outside your walls for additions to your organization. Not only out of necessity, but it's also nice for new blood, new perspectives at times. But I love the Twins identifying quality men, quality baseball guys, to bring back to the organization and contribute. It helps breed and maintain a positive organizational attitude and philosophy. And let's be honest, while there have been down seasons and a couple rebuilds, since McPhail and TK took over 25+ years ago! the Twins culture has been pretty effective. I also find it frustrating and a bit disingenuous when some blast the Twins for hiring former Twins. Good baseball men are good baseball men. And pretty much every "ex-Twin" brought back has spent time outside the Twins with at least one if not several organizations before or after their Twins tenure.
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2014 was supposed to be a big transition year...
DocBauer replied to DocBauer's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
If Meyer doesn't open with the ball club next year, it will be due to other available options performing well, and/or the idea of giving him a little more time to iron some things out. Not due to any other reason. Remember this past ST when everyone just KNEW Gibson was going to Rochester due to service time and options and they would stick with Diamond and Worley regardless. Except, that's not how it happened. The team kept the younger and better player. Until we hear or see something otherwise, Nolasco is healthy, throwing pain free, and not walking the TJ path. Milone was a surprisingly solid pickup. Nothing great, but solid. Not just a AAAA guy walking down the street. "Hey buddy! you ever pitch before?" And while I don't think anyone is very excited about Pelfrey, I think perspective is due. While he rushed, and the Twins admit he was rushed, after he got his strength and command back, he actually pitched quite well in 2013 until he tired. If something close to that pitcher is back this season, he's a solid option for at least a portion of the season. But right now, he's probably 6th on the list for SP spots. And again, that's not including Meyer, which bumps him to 7. By mid season Berrios, Darnell and Gilmartin may all be options as well, though I see Darnell in the pen possibly. -
I would not add Buxton to the 40 man and promote him this season under any circumstances. The reason is simple; after an injury marred season to delay his development and arrival, the recent promotion to AA is a nice late season test. Despite off the chart ability, he's just not ready yet. You let him finish at AA, you get him AB's in the AFL, possibly winter ball, to reclaim some of his lost season, but you save the roster spot for another prospect. I would bring up Hicks. He doesn't have to supplant Santana, and no promises have to be made for next season. But with ML experience time already, his strong play at New Britain, a hopefully good finish at Rochester, you bring him back up for September as a reward and further development and a look-see to build toward next year. Out of necessity, someone has to be signed for 2015. A veteran to fill out the roster and lineup, and hopefully provide a solid veteran bat. The field of possibilities is wide open at this point. I do like the idea of Rasmus or Markakis as options. Rasmus is younger at 28, might offer some upside, and can play CF as well as a corner. I'd prefer the 30yo Markakis as a more proven hitter with more power. The Twins have the finances to make a solid signing for a player of this nature. Even a 3-year deal would do nothing to hamper financial or roster flexibility.
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2014 was supposed to be a big transition year...
DocBauer replied to DocBauer's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I could cut and paste all day and then respond. So that's not practical, and too hard and time consuming, LOL, I just sent out a bunch of likes and decided to share a few thoughts of my own after reading and reflection. I honestly began this thread as a question, a bit unsure how to answer it myself initially. I have to say, the response has been very good and very intelligent. Kudos to all. I originally felt 2014 would be a definitive transition year. There were times during the season where I questioned that idea, or at least, the degree of such. Now that August is upon us, trades have been made, promotions have followed, even milb promotions, Although, as has been suggested by others, said transition is probably not as expedient or thorough as originally hoped for or expected. I hate to rehash the obvious, but it begins with Buxton and Sano. I, for one, never expected them to break camp. I doubted June. But the second half to now, I thought we'd probably see them. Whether they exploded on the scene or got their feet wet, I think we'd all feel better about said 2014 transition had this happened. I also think we'd feel better, at least different, had Hicks made a move this year to claim an OF spot. Pull a Torri Hunter, if you will, where he flounders and bounces a bit before at least starting to settle in. Not placing blame anywhere in particular, just saying it would change the perspective. I like the thought though, that the rebuild really began with the trades for May and Meyer. I think that's accurate. And I'm not going to debate here if they should have been brought up by now, or if the Twins are being too cautious, or if they may indeed handling both just right. But I think they were a big part, and maybe the first part. While circumstances are different, I'm reminded of similar arguements regarding Gibson last year though, and I think it's turned out about as well as can be expected. You could argue Nolasco and Hughes, while not prospects, are also part of the rebuild. Hughes is still young with untapped/unfulfilled potential, arguably, until now. Nolasco is a youn 30yo veteran to provide innings and a veteran presence. You know, we could continue to argue and debate about the handling of SS and CF all over again, but Escobar got his shot and has, dare I say, excelled. I know we've talked and debated somewhat about replacing him with the likes of Polanco and Gordon...which may indeed happen...but what he's done this year has been a revelation as well as an answer to multi-season prayers. Does Santana have a future at SS? I don't know. At this point I have to, "does it matter?" You want your best players on the field. And for a multitude of reasons, many players change and learn different positions and find success. He has been a catalyst, has been fun and highly productive, and just refuses to not be good. I guess I'd prefer to look at what he's done/doing, and not so much as to what position he was supposed to be playing. -
...so has it been? We saw a huge transition in the FO to actually spend money to improve the team in regards to Nolasco and Hughes, Pelfrey to a lesser degree, Suzuki at catcher, Morales near mid season, and a few poor early offerings that were quickly discarded. Although there were some widely discussed misses and mistakes at certain positions in which the Twins proved to be very wise or very lucky: ex, SS and CF. They've actually given quite a few kids a shot to this point; Santana, Pinto, Parmelee, Tonkin, Pressly, May, Darnell, Vargas, Escobar, Hicks, Arcia, along with a few fillers. Some got a long leash, some short, some to come back again. The FO has tried to remove vets that don't figure in tomorrow for something rather than just holding on. Jim Pohland has talked about not being satisfied. Sano and Buxton were supposed to be here by now, as we awaited Meyer and May. The best laid plans of mice and men. So is 2014 a transition year still? Or have we lost a full season?
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Game Thread: Twins @ Astros, 8/11 @ 7:10pm CT
DocBauer replied to Squirrel's topic in Archived Game Threads
Not even sure I could pick a favorite...but...this was amongst the best. Won Gold Globes, should have won the Oscar. -
Game Thread: Twins @ Astros, 8/11 @ 7:10pm CT
DocBauer replied to Squirrel's topic in Archived Game Threads
You guys have cracked me up reading all the game thread posts. And I appreciate that. God, but I hate to be the Debbie-Downer, I just can't get excited. Even with Milone pitching. All I can think off is Robin Williams as I pour a round. Sorry. -
Tobi, love to argue with you man, but I think you not only hit the nail on the head, I think you just about hammered it! Just a few points of opinion from me: I would put Berrios in the lock category. He's athletic, talented, coach able, hardworking, a seeming natural with tremendous stuff. I think the only thing that could hold him back....and I don't want to say it...I don't want to even think it....is injury. I just have this feeling he can't and won't be denied, will be good to very good, and then, after gaining a little experience, might just explode as a #1 or #2. I'm higher on May than some. He's a big strong, strapping kid who has the ability to throw a lot of innings. He throws consistently in the mid 90's with SO's and some nasty stuff. Lots of pitchers struggle with control, at least to some degree, power pitchers probably more so. I see his floor as a #3. Honestly, no disrespect to Meyer and his potential, but he has the potential for a 1 or 2. Nolasco may have to be moved by sometime in 2016. It would be a nice problem to have to be sure. Arcia is also a lock for position players. Too much talent. It's going to click! Sano is our future 3B, at least for a few years. He's worked hard to make himself a solid, competent and still improving defensive player. He is not a pitcher. His injury is not going to be debilitating. His strong arm will still be strong, and probably stronger a year later. He may be a big man, but the former SS is a quality athlete who is showing he can play the position. Unless he eats himself out of the position or something, people need to quit worrying so much. I love the 3-part race for LF! (And 4th OF spot) Santana is speed, defense, potential avg. with some OB and gap power, some HR power, and potential position flexibility. Rosario offers defense, CF ability, great pure hit ability, some OB, with gap power, and I believe, decent HR power. Despite decent speed, he'd probably never match Santana's SB potential. But he'd probably hit better with more power. Hicks is a mystery after what we've seen the last couple of seasons, but still offers huge potential as a defensive OF at all 3 spots, speed and power potential with OB ability, but maybe not as much avg. potential as Rosario or Santana. Maybe it's just wishful thinking, but if Polanco can be at least average defensively, isn't he the best and most exciting SS option? I fully agree on the pen. There's almost too many good arms to count over the next year or two to settle on a list. Man, the next year or so could and should be very exciting!
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Color Me, and Joe Mauer, Impressed
DocBauer replied to Steve Lein's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I know. But I can't help myself! I didn't even mention he's LH! LOL- 12 replies
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How to save Joe Mauers career
DocBauer commented on goulik's blog entry in First Base and the legacy of Kent Hrbek
Nice article Goulik. Made me smile and laugh. Reading the article, I'm a bit older than you. And while I lived 4-5 hours from the Twin Cities, I was raised all things sports from Minnesota by my father, an avid sports fan. Other than a few cable games at my grandmother's house, I learned the game of baseball and love of the Twins from the radio. And you made me smile as I also recollected Hrbek, one of the best, and one of my personal favorite, all time Twins. An all time measuring stick though? Maybe. But Morneau is also a forever Twin to me. Man, I wish we had taken one more shot at him this season hoping the concussion symptoms would be gone! How to save Mauer? To me it's an easy solution. (Yes, I know you're speaking tongue in cheek, but I'm turning serious here for a moment) Mauer's time behind has robbed him somewhat of his vast atheticism. But he has more than enough to be a very good defensive 1B. And while I don't say the positions are the same, digging out ground balls, moving around the bag, and chasing pop-ups is very similar. The only thing Mauer has to do is be healthy. Playing first should do a lot to promote that, and prolong his career. Provided he can shake the concussions symptoms like his friend Morneau! Before his oblique injury, it looked like Mauer was begining to play like the Mauer of old. This simply might end up being another lost season for Mauer. (Rookie year injury and 2011) I just want him to finish 2014 healthy, getting his stroke back, and getting ready for 2015. If over the concussion issues, he should be a fine 1B who is back to hitting .300+ with and OB around .400. Back to 40 doubles and anywhere from 12-18 HR's while playing 150 games at 1B with a few games at DH. I know 12-18 HR's seems like a wide spread, and I don't know if he'll ever hit 20 singers again, but does he need to? If Mauer can just be Mauer again, I'd take double digit HR totals. And his overall production in 150 games would be very, very solid. -
Obviously Mauer takes Hammer's spot. Question is, does Pino ride the shuttle back to Rochester immediately? Or does he start again to keep the normal schedule going, then punch his ticket for Nolasco to be activated? I know Swarzak, Deduno and potentially Pino seem redundant. But fast forward to next season when you have to fill out AAA with Rochester with prospects and a couple solid AAAA fillers for depth, as well as additional competition for the Twins long relief option. By this I mean, simply discarding them might not be a great idea. Further, I don't get the hate on Swarzak. He's been solid in his role, outstanding at it last season. But there are those who seem anxious to kick him aside. I don't get it.

