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Everything posted by DocBauer
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Kepler and Rosario in the corners (whichever) and Buton in CF. Could be September, could be next June. You don't need a backup CF on the roster because you already have two. Not saying no to Hicks, but decreases any urgency for a 4th OF to be able to play the spot. If roster crunching left you with only 4 total OF's, Arcia could be that guy. That starting OF offers up not only daily talent, but soooo many options and possibilities for reserve spot/roster scenarios as well as trade options to fill other needs.
- 70 replies
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- byron buxton
- oswaldo arcia
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A double edged sword at the moment gang: all this OF talent and potential, but not all of the OF and potential ready or realized and nothing necessitates making a decision TODAY. And tomorrow row is half a season away, which gives more time for offensive and defensive development, successes, promotions, etc. Mauer: Not going anywhere for at least a year. Contract and history both say he's earned that right. He might rebound, he might not. But cut, retire, urged to retire and bought out, whatever, ink him in for 2016 as a 1B and DH. Could he be OK in the OF? Meh...potentially. Still has a good arm, decent athlete overall, and I've seen worse in the last, and still see worse out there today. (Baseball, not necessarily the Twins) But I just don't see any scenario in which moving Mauer to the OF overrides any other scenario. There are just so many other possible options that make more sense. Arcia: I don't want to trade him, much less trade low. He played and hit the best I've seen the last part of 2014. I just don't understand what has happened this season. Still a boatload of offensive talent and mediocre to OK defensive potential. Call me crazy, his youth, flashes, and potential still hold some value in a trade scenario, especially as part of a package. Losing him if he rebounds won't hurt as much depending on what the final return is, and if Kepler and others would have made him superfluous anyway. I think he can DH and be a part time 4/5th OF. But if Kepler is or can be ready soon, then I'm OK with an Arcia move to bring in that catcher the team could really use. Speaking of Kepler: huge fan and believer. Been immensely intrigued and hopeful since day one. Unless his swing just lies flat like Mauer, (I've seen nothing to indicate this, just saying) more HR's will come from his big and athletic frame. Suddenly finding himself is awesome. But I don't want him promoted so fast that he loses himself again. I think AAA for the second half is the right thing to do. And it's not that anyone is saying he's of MORE VALUE at 1B, it's just that, with so many options potentially available and viable over the next year or two, putting him at 1B fills that position very well and puts another potential quality OF in the field. Rosario: really, up until last season, he has always hit, always produced, always shown tons of potential and natural ability and always been young for his level. While not setting the world on fire YET, he is playing excellent defense, slashing some speed and power, and looks natural on the base paths. He'll probably never be a high OB guy, but I can live with that and all off is other skills and potential. Not all players, and not all great players, are necessarily disciplined, high BB hitters. Hicks: offensive and defensively, despite a few bad moments, the player I saw out there this 3rd time looked much, much more like a confident, bonafide ML player than the overmatched and defensive kid I watched the past couple of seasons. I hesitated at his promotion as his stance and stroke were re-worked, productive, but still in their infancy. I still like his potential as a starting CF for someone, with decent to good potential offense. But for the Twins, I think he's a 4th OF. And he could be a really nice one, and I'm OK with that. But like Arcia, he could be part of a package for a young catcher. (Think of the Twins desperate and bungled CF situation these past few seasons and a former top prospect drops in your lap as part of a deal) Sano: can we just drop this for now? Please? Kid misses the entire 2014 season, has a half season at AA 3B under his belt, and is suddenly destined for 1B and/or the OF...positions he has never played before except for like a single inning....because....why? Because he will be an instant HR champ slugging All Star with the move off of 3B? Because he can't play 3B? Who says? I have read speculation that he MAY have to move off 3B, at least eventually depending on growth, but have read nothing that says he can't be at least an OK 3B. Said it before, and will keep on saying it, gold glove 3B don't get promoted, they develop. I'm not down on Walker or Harrison, it's just that there are more holes there to close, typical of most prospects. Each is a good year away. And that's OK! I'm also not as down in Santana at SS as some, though I believe Polanco just might be the best option going forward. Based on what he showed flashes of potentially, could he unlock that potential as a LF who can backup CF and SS? I think it's worth considering. Like Arcia, and Hicks, his talent and potential could make him part of a trade package as well. Hunter: absolutely love what he's brought and how this story is playing out. I don't think he should be brought back, almost regardless of how he hits/plays the rest of the year. HOWEVER, I will say this; injury, trade(s) or poor performance of say Arcia and/or Hicks, I would at least consider Hunter back on a 1 year, provided it was friendly, and it was understood he was a DH who might get a start here or there, but NOT a big signing as a starting OF option.
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The Twins $55 Million Dollar Question
DocBauer commented on Ted Schwerzler 's blog entry in Off The Baggy
Gotta throw Deunsing in to make the deal work -
Agreed. But then again, the draft was only a week ago, signings have begin, and it's right around now, traditionally, that the Twins make all their second half promotions. There should be a bunch coming real soon. And on that note, the Lookouts have a top 100 player, a soon-to-be named top 100 player in Kepler, (bank it),and a possibly named top 100 in Polanco, (strong candidate). Would suck for Rochester, but you could almost make the move for all three to skip AAA. Almost.
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- max kepler
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I.....I can't believe Im actually going to say the following things. (Gulp) * during a career year, and a FA after this season, a team in contention, especially if someone is hurt or underperforms, can, will and should be interested in Pelfrey. However, they aren't going to pay much based on track history of performance and injury. Which means...... * ......Pelfrey's best value to the Twins is to stay a Twin. He is actually pitching borderline great. Yes, it's true. Forget peripherals for a moment and just look at results. He's had 2 stinker games, all pitchers do, but has been 6-8 IP every time out, is winning, keeping us in every game, getting out of jams, and is providing a real shot in the arm. Even if he suddenly regresses, there is the bullpen option. * I agree with the qualifying offer. No extension! The QO is affordable, and brings back a pick if he refuses. If he accepts, and regresses, you have an expensive bullpen option, but one who just might be solid-valuable in the role. And it's still only one year. And maybe, just maybe, out of NY, finally healthy, a change in approach brought on by himself or his new pitching coach or a combination of both, and a seemingly new mental toughness, he truly might be maturing/developing/finding himself late in his career.
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- mike pelfrey
- trade deadline
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The Beauty and Brokenness Of Interleague Play
DocBauer replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Oh...the Twins are playing the Cards and then the Cubs? Oh yeah, that's right, they're in the NL aren't they. Yawwwwn! I mean, seriously, it used to be kind of a big deal. Twice a year, for a couple of weeks, the AL and NL just sort of stopped as a season long entity for a little while, and we had this little baseball vacation fantasy time. Now it just seems kind of Ho-hum, teams drifting in and out of league ballparks, just another game on the schedule. -
TD Midseason Top Prospects: #10 Alex Meyer
DocBauer replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I absolutely want Meyer to get another shot at starting, do well, get promoted, do well, and in a year or two become a #1 or #2 starter. And it could very well still happen. That door is in no way closed, IMO, and I believe the Twins feel the same. However, what if he does stay as a hard throwing SO capable relief pitcher? Really, would that be such an awful thing in the scheme of the Twins universe? Fien and Meyer blowing away hitters to get to Perkins, with Meyer as a possible future closer. Jay, perhaps, along with auditions of Darnell, Hurlant, Thompson, a rehabbed Melotakis, and the various LHSP options at AAA and AA....suddenly you have a TOP bullpen to go along with a rotation of Hughes (better than he's shown this year), Santana, Gibson, May, Berrios as well as a few other depth options and some really nice options down in A ball. -
Twins Sign, Introduce Tyler Jay
DocBauer replied to John Bonnes's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Not a coach or scout, but with roughly 10 weeks available, and plans to make him a starter, I'd like to see him ramped up as a starter to build his arm, work on his arsenal, and then ramp him back down again to finish in the bullpen. Of course, I suppose he could pitch multiple innings per appearance as well. I have to say, I have little to no angst against in regard to Jay's "bust" potential. While it would be great to see him evolve in to a high quality starter, if you told me we were picking a hard throwing, SO capable LHSU man who would be a big factor in the Twins bullpen and might even have eventual closer potential, I'd say "way to go!" A contributor of that quality would be well worth the #6 pick in the draft. If you doubt that, look again at the current list of former #1 picks in the various posts here on TD that washed out in the crapshoot that is the baseball draft. -
Never seen him in person, but always been impressed with all reports of his build, his natural athleticism and his attitude. (My father met and saw him ST a couple years ago and was very impressed). I thought he was a pick to click last season and so glad to see it happen this year. Although it's kind of a surprise that he actually moves up a level and finds his very best year. I'm betting there is more HR power to come, and I'd be very happy if he was a consistent 20 HR type to go along with everything else he seems to bring. Doesn't have to hit 30 dinners to be very good and very valuable. Thinking he's in the top 100 this offseason for prospect rankings
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- tyler duffey
- max kepler
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Going to disagree here, rather strongly. I have absolutely no doubt Kepler could, would, will be an excellent ML outfielder. But defense at 1B is pretty important. And while stating the obvious, you can't just stick someone over there with a glove and say; "go play and do well". Kepler offers a big target and athleticism. And with the intention of putting the best 8/9 guys daily on/in to the field/lineup, Buxton and Rosario as probable starting OF's leaves one spot open. Walker? Harrison? Hicks? Plouffe? Arcia? Not betting on it, but, Sano? And I don't kid when I say possibly Santana with a conversion to the OF (mostly full time at least) and really finding himself as a dangerous and exciting top/bottom spot in the lineup presence. So Kepler can man 1B if and when one of these options claims that third OF spot fully. He doesn't have to be the Twins 1B of the future, but I'd say there are way more OF options available than 1B options at this point. Think Erstad with more power and a little less speed.
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- tyler duffey
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Would Duensing be enough to get DeRosa do you think?
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Can Joe Mauer Rebound From Poor Start?
DocBauer replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Nobody wants to blame the concussion. Not Mauer, not the FO, not the staff, so fine, I won't either. A strong close to last season and an Ok start to this one would suggest the elephant has left the room. (But then why such maddening swings of inconsistency?) I can't buy physical. Is he over 30 now? Sure. We're there obvious rigors in catching? Sure. But he just turned 32, he's not ancient, he hasn't really caught in almost 2 years now, believe, and supposedly had a great offseason workout. Something he didn't have the offseason before. Could his bat be slowing? Sure. But this much this fast AFTER the concussion supposedly healed and almost two years AFTER his last game a as catcher? I have to wonder then about the mental side of things. Too many adjustments? Trying too hard to be something he's not? One of the truly great things about Puckett was the simple philosophy of "see ball, hit ball". And he did. All over the place, a lot of the time right back up the middle. Mauer is more patient as a hitter, and he's never had the uppercut to produce HR's despite his natural size and strength. But he always seemed to previously have the ability to put the bat on the ball. You would think just doing that, with his natural strength, would produce wicked line drive after wicked line drive...with a few duck snorts in there too, obviously. I don't mean to sound simplistic, but is it possible Mauer's approach should be as simple as "don't swing at crazy crap...otherwise...see ball, hit ball, and just see where it goes"? -
As much as it pains me to do this, I'm going to quote Aaron Rogers; "R-E-L-A-X". A team that is supposed to be rebuilding and in last place hits a high mark, then slumps, (which all teams do), and is STILL above .500 half way through June. I don't know about you, BUT IM HAVING A BLAST! I also want the offense improved. And it's not one guy, it's group slumpage lately. It happens. I am not, never have been, never will be, a big believer in promoting a top/quality prospect straight to the majors as some sort of "fix it" option. There is a very good reason for ultiple levels in the minors, including AAA. For every Knoblauch who makes said move, there is a Hicks that shouldn't of. (Honestly, there's probably less of the former and more of the latter) Now, Buxton and Sano are special talents. I'm begining to think Polanco may be as well. I want all 3 up, fitting in, gaining experience, helping, growing, and getting ready for 2016, where more things should be "coming together" for the rebuild to approach primary conclusion and legit contention status. Enjoy. Patience. We're going to see Sano and Polanco up at some point, probably within 30 days. Arcia and Santana will be heard from again as well. And they should be. There is a lot of talent, potential and hope here. Let's enjoy it.
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My two bits; I'd have Sano at 3B more than 1 game per week. Not only for development, but to keep him in the flow of the game. No reason Plouffe cant play a game or two a week at 1B, plus DH once, and Mauer can DH a game or two, or even sit a game or two. At this point in time, Mauer not playing once or twice a week will not be a major detriment to the lineup.
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Twins Daily Contest: What Would You Give?
DocBauer replied to John Bonnes's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Brian Duensing -
Here here! Someone....anyone....who can throw the ball around the plate and actually strike a few guys out would be a HUGE boon for the pen. Oliveros should be given a shot. Actually, he should have gotten one before now. Oh yeah...because there is simply no-one to remove from the 40 man who's spot he can take. (Turn head and cough) Meyer? I don't believe he or the Twins have given up on his potential as a starter. Not yet. Way too early. I don't think it would be a stretch to call this season an aberration compared to last season and performances before last year. But so far, he's taken to the role. There were a lot of calls last season for Meyer to get his feet wet at the ML level in the pen, with the idea of transitioning back to the rotation later. (See reference: Cardinals, St Louis) This may become a reality. I would be very, very tempted at this point to bring him up for a bullpen role in September. But if he keeps things up as he has done lately, I'd think really hard about July sometime, August 1 at the latest. I'd like to see him in this new opportunity while the games mattered.
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I would agree with this. Ideally, you would like to have two LHRP available, though possibly in different roles. Right now, I'm not sure the Twins have even one. That might not be fair to Thompson as he's ben solid most of the year, but he has struggled as of late. A LOOGY role may be perfect for him. With Melotakis out, my hopes were for Darnell to build on what he did last season, and actually up a lot of his. Umbels with a move to the bullpen full time. His Rochester numbers aren't bad, but not what I had hoped for. I hesitate to hold open auditions mid season for roster spots on a competitive ball club...but...at this point I'd encourage the idea of Deunsing removed through whatever direction, make Thompson that LOOGY, and then start running guys through until we can find one LH from AAAA or AA that seems capable of actually pitching an inning or two out of the pen with positive results. If he could average more than 4K per 9, and keep RH batters to a BA .270 ish or below, he might just hold the job for years to come.
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I have always been a big Arcia fan and promoter. After the way he finished last season, I really thought the light was begining to come on, and we were about ready for a breakout season. Unfortunately, someone seems to have installed a dimmer switch this season, and Arcia has...well...I don't know....what has Arcia done exactly? Forgotten how to play? Gotten overconfident? Quit listening to coaching? I don't know, but he sure doesn't seem like the same ballplayer. I also want him succeeding in a Twins uniform. And sooner or later, he will be back up again for another shot. (And let's be honest, Schafer and Robinson are disposable temps) But as muck has as I want Arcia to succeed, Kepler, Harrisson and Walker are on the way. (Possible conversion of Plouffe to the OF). I believe Santana may yet find his true self as a LF who can play center and backup SS as well. What if Arcia could be part of a package to bring in that top young catcher this needs in the off season? Again, I don't want to lose him. But he might just become expendable.
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More and more and more.....this isn't your father's conservative old Twins approach. Or...maybe it is, hardening back to the cheap Calvin G days when the Twins promoted so aggressively. Hmmm.....interesting thought isn't it?
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This is a HUGE question mark going forward. Sano is as much of a linchpin as Mauer may potentially be. I believe Sano has made a pretty outstanding comeback this season. More so than Buxton. Remember, at least Buxton got part of last season in last year. And the arguement could be made that he has a more difficult defensive assignment as well, getting back in to a groove at 3B rather the OF. I believe Sano is very close to getting his shot. But there is less of a promotional need for him with Plouffe at 3B than Buxton in the OF. But if he continues on his current course, I believe he will be up in time to get at least 2 full months of time in. (That is my hope at least) He will play 3B and have the occassional game at DH. Plouffe can play third, first and DH. Mauer can play first, DH, and sit on occasion as well. I'm not being cruel, but Plouffe is more productive, Sano has to play, so it's OK if Mauer just sits once in a while as well. Now, Sano is going to make some really nice plays at 3B. And he's also going to make more than a few errors as well. I'd speculate 15-20 errors in his first full season as the Twins primary 3B. And I don't care! Unless the guy was a .250 hitter with zero power and was shifted from SS or 2B, I don't remember a single 3B I have ever seen who came to the Bigs as a Gold Glove caliber defensive 3B. It takes time. More at home, it did for Gaetti...it did for Koskie...it did for Plouffe...and it will for Sano. No trades. Not now. In the off season....maybe. There may yet be room for everyone. But I would consider Plouffe expendable in the right deal to acquire...oh...maybe a top flight young catcher?
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IMO, Mauer is now a quality defensive 1B. He is still a .260-.270 ish hitter with a .350 OB%. Call it grasping at straws, but, there is value there. It's not what we want, not what he wants, not what the Twins want, and not what his contract and past would indicate he should be. But there is some value there. Can he pull a Morneau and heal up and find himself again? Nobody knows. JM shows maybe. Koskie shows maybe not. There is still hope. But what to do in the meantime? Drop the whole "but for his contact" thoughts and arguments. What to do while he's here and part of the team? For NOW it would seem to me you have two choices: 1) despite a penchant for hitting in to double plays, he can still hit a little, and he can still be good to better at getting on base. Hitting second behind Buxton...eventually...might be his best spot. 2) ultimately, Rosario or Polanco hitting second may be the best lineup option. For now, most of this year, Hunter has done a good job there. If one if these guys, or Escobar, or a Santana return, can become a fixture, then Mauer only fits in one of the final 3 spots in the order. It's sad...but it's the truth. Still.....there is some value here when looked at objectively, and taken at current, realistic, face value.
- 81 replies
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- joe mauer
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I honestly didn't want to write this. It's probably 3 weeks too early. It should be written right at, around, or just at the conclusion of the All-Star game. But there have been sooooo many moves, posts, discussions and debates this past week, that the timing has been moved up. What exactly are those moves, posts, discussions, and debates this week? Just as a refresher: Stauffer mercifully gone and Tonkin brought up (questionable about Tonkin), the forever Duensing/Duensing-forever debate, a recent slump of our beloved Twins (mostly due to suddenly disappearing offense), yet more endless-timely-warranted Mauer debate, promotion of Polanco for ONE GAME, (seriously? ONE F-ING GAME? No Bernier or Beresford up for a single game? Polanco? From AA for ONE GAME? Absolutely, positively NO REASON...unless someone can offer one up...to make this move except for ONE THING...a time for the coaches to talk to him again, remind him of his future in the bigs, and to discuss how much they want him up and expect to bring him up in the future.), debates about the Twins being a legit contender or not, the draft, Santana's demotion to AAA, Santana pitching and stretching out at Ft Meyers (obviously different Santanas. Can we corner the market? How many would it take?), discussions about Rosario and actually sticking permanately, Hicks getting hurt, and of course...drum roll...the top Twins prospect, possibly the top prospect in all of baseball...Byron Buxton actually getting promoted to THE SHOW. Probably missed a few subjects. But the Buxton move is what really, ultimately, pushed up this post. For perspective...whether you like it or not...we need to rewind a bit. Yes...to be fair to all of us...and our future...we really have to. The Twins were one of the best teams in all of baseball in 2010 with a 94 & 68 record.Think about that for a moment. Despite all the angst shared by us as fans, we had one of the best teams, and best records, a scant 4 2/3 seasons ago. Bet there are a lot of Royals, Cubs, Pirates, Astros (and other) fans out there that would be damn jealous! Like most all teams, the Twins lost a few players, tweaked the roster, but approached 2011 with the core of their 94 win team still intact, and expected/predicted to win the AL Central and be a contender. Honest reflection and memory kind of sucks doesn't it? 2012 is your debatable year...if you're really being honest about it all. After a disappointing season filled with injury after injury after injury, disappointment after disappointment after disappointment, you have TWO, and ONLY TWO choices facing you for 2012. Either your team will get healthy, and again, like all teams, you will tweak your roster a bit, and assume those tweaks and healthy ballplayers will lead you back to relevance again...OR...you will decide that tweaks and health will not make enough of a difference, and you should blow the whole thing up. Honestly, what would you do? 20/20 hindsight is great, but could you have really known and predicted what to do at that point? Feel free to blast Ryan, the Twins in general, the stars, Karma, and anything else you want to regarding '13 & '14 and some of the moves, non moves, hype, BS and expectations involved. We all have at various points. What can't be denied is the past two seasons stunk, and there were good attempts at improving the club, some poor attempts, and some non attempts. There were also a few injuries that slowed at least some of the progress of change and potential change. So here we are...early as I stated for this article...but forced to examine what is what, and who is who, and what might be what, and how that may be how...due to a a series of events. This should be a transitional season for the Twins. And yet, it's also a possible, surprising, contention year for the Twins. (all teams have ebb and flow to their seasons, so I am in no way putting up a white flag after a couple poor games/weeks/debatable) Have there been disappointments and regression this year? Absolutely. But we also have some very nice ballplayers, including the recently promoted Buxton. (who I thought was another 2 weeks of hotness/consistency away from being promoted) What do you think, realistically, happens, and what we need to do from here? And don't tell me trade Nolasco for a top prospect future Ace, or that Duensing will yield a top 100 catching prospect. (of course, feel free to include Duensing, as per usual, in any or all trade/move scenarios. I am a bit of a traditionalist, after all) This is YOUR team and YOUR thread. You can kill it now. Or, you can own your team, and decide what best your team needs to do, should do, and what you hope will take place at this point. I have my own thoughts, going forward for the remainder of the year, that I will gladly share. But I'd rather be the Twins 2015 baseball not quite to the halfway point yet but a lot of things have been going on Muse right now.
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Twins Minor League Report (6/12): Buxton Stays Hot
DocBauer replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Speaking of Meyer...NICE JOB- 18 replies
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- chad christensen
- david hurlbut
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Umm......no. No thank you. Please no. God no. Hell no. Get the point? I've been saying since last year that the time to make any deal(s) is AFTER THIS season. And not before. Don't get impatient, don't get fooled, and don't get desperate. Think of how long some teams have suffered with little or nothing to cheer for and with little or nothing to hope for except...well....hope. Royals? Astros? Pirates? Cubs? To name a few. How many winning seasons in the past 10+ years combined? And we've had 4 bad seasons, at least one of which was unexpected. We are, arguably, a year early for above .500 and possibly in contention for a playoff spot. I say arguably because injuries really hurt a couple top prospects last season in their rise, and because some of us saw this team at .500 or above with a few breaks. So the team is winning, playing well, competitive, (despite a little recent slump age), and we are suddenly willing to dump prospects or quality young veterans for an aged vet or two, or someone who might leave in a season, or be soon replaceable within our own system? Remember all the "no's" I mentioned above? Look, other than Meyer having some unfortunate and unforeseen trouble...and some disappointment from Santana and a little from Vargas...a lot of things are going exactly as hoped for. Hicks is suddenly playing great defense and looking like a youngster who has a future. Rosario is looking good. May and Gibson are becoming real fixtures. Buxton, Sano and Polanco are looking REAL CLOSE. Berrios may not be far behind. Hughes is struggling some, but I don't think anyone really doubts him long term. Santana will join the rotation soon. Plouffe may not be a stud, but he has real ability and value. Dozier IS a stud. Etc, etc, there are a lot of valid points to be made how close this is lot coming together. ML and Milb level, we have over half a season still for development, promotion and determination. And a much better read not only on 2016, but the team that will continue beyond. I think this team could use a move for a young front line catcher. It could also use a LH and RH to step forward in the bullpen. Those last two could be filled from within. But the time to fully examine, prepare and move is AFTER the season...not now. Don't hurry a recipe for success by messing too much with the ingredients too soon.

