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Everything posted by DocBauer
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Honestly, with further reflection on all matters, I think what the Twins should be doing is trading/cutting the obvious and then staying pat. The obvious moves are to be rid of Nolasco, Milone, Kinzler, Ramirez, Plouffe, D Santana and Suzuki. Get what you can, probably A ball players with some potential, eat salary that is already spent anyway, and just clear space. These moves allow the team to instantly promote Berrios, Wheeler, Chargois, Wimmers (Boshers and Hildenberger are possibles), Polanco and Murphy as direct replacements. Promote as necessary to AAA, but especially include Garver, Granite and Hildenberger, plus probably Melotakis. (I've stated this before) I can see arguements for and against trading Abad vs re-signing him, but I'm on the fence there but OK either way. What I would not do, unless offered something pretty darn nice that I'd be silly to refuse, is trade E Santana, Dozier or Nunez. Why? Santana provides a solid, decent, still relatively cost controlled veteran SP for 2017 to help fill and stabilize my staff which probably includes Gibson, Duffey, Berrios and either Wheeler or May. (Meyer and Hughes on the outside looking in for now) Despite some arguements to the contrary, there is no reason to expect Santana to suddenly decline dramaticly. He may have even greater trade value this time next season with only a year and a half remaining on his deal. Further, he could still be traded during the offseason once teams begin to set their rosters. Dozier is good. Dozier is not old. We're still not 100% sure what we have in Polanco. (Twins own fault there) We are hedging our bets by keeping Dozier for now as Polanco auditions and gets experience. Perhaps he grows in to a full time slot gradually? I also feel the same about Dozier in trade value this time next year, or the offseason. And I'd keep Nunez. And not just because he's having this great season. What if Sano gets hurt? While I fully believe in Sano playing 3B, and only getting better, what if you move him suddenly to 1B/DH? What if Polanco struggles, especially if you've traded Dozier already? What's wrong with Escobar, Dozief, Nunez and Polanco all opening 2017 as your starting middle infield and utility reserves? And by not trading Santana or Dozier...at least now...you can audition Murphy, Polanco, Wheeler and a host of RP the remainder of the season, as well as how your other prospects finish AAA and AA, fairly assess their time table after a complete season and possible September audition, and then re-assess your top needs in the offseason and still look to move Santana and/or Dozier at that time.
- 149 replies
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- jose berrios
- jorge polanco
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You are correct that Polanco hasn't had his opportunity and we all know that has to change. And soon! I'm still torn on trading Dozier. He still brings a lot to this team, but his return should also be good. And he's still young enough to be part of this rebuild. I find the Polanco vs Dozier debates to be interesting. I see no reason why Polanco can't be a fine defensive 2B, as good as or better than Dozier. But they are different types of players. And that's OK. Polanco may develop some double digit HR power, but will probably never be a 20+ HR guy like Dozier. But he will almost assuredly hit more, have a decent to good OB, and provide speed and quite a few doubles. Losing Dozier's HR would stink, but it should also be offset, eventually if not immediately, by 1B/DH becoming more settled, Rosario and Kepler.
- 149 replies
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- jose berrios
- jorge polanco
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He is blocking Polanco via his roster spot. Kepler and Rosario can both play CF if Buxton needs a day off. Really, if someone got dinged, could Mastroianni be any worse for a week than Santana? Kid has talent, no doubt. But it's not manifesting in a positive, forward direction. Pass him through waivers. If he clears put him in AAA. I've always rooted for him. And he may yet find a role with another team. But we don't need him, and Polanco needs to be up.
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I would still consider keeping E Santana unless the return is nice. Plouffe, Nolasco, Milton and Suzuki should all be gone soon. Not convinced moving Nunez or Escobar is a good move. I don't feel the necessity to gut the roster for the sake of doing so. And both offer ability and roles, TBD, and offer additional roster depth and flexability. Especially if we do consider moving Dozier at some point. But I want Polanco up. I'd consider moving on from D Santana even though there is still potential there. And both Kepler and Rosario can play CF here and there when Buxton needs a break. Berrios and Wheeler in the rotation now. (Still want to stretch out May, but might not happen now until next year) Chargois and Wimmers up in place of Ramirez and whoever else is moved. I'd like to bring Boshers up too, but we need to see if we actually have something in Wimmers. And as crazy good as he's been, I'm not sure how you don't bring up Hildenberger at some point. Not sure about Palka. I like him. I still hold out real hope for Walker as well. But there are so many AB and Walker is still a work in progress and Palka just got to AAA, so I guess I'm a no for now. Granite and Garver should both be at AAA tomorow. Could see Garver in September, but Murphy needs a fair audition for now.
- 149 replies
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- jose berrios
- jorge polanco
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Twins Fire General Manager Terry Ryan
DocBauer replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I appreciate the job Ryan did his first term with the Twins. And his first couple of losing seasons on this second term weren't entirely is fault. But the past few seasons, it just seemed like he didn't have a plan in place. I was of the opinion he was gone, despite arguements of the previous TWINS WAY of doing things. Comments from Ryan himself seemed to indicate he was on the hot seat. But again, I'm really surprised it happened at this time. -
Deadline Primer: Catcher On The Rise
DocBauer replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Just curious, but do we have any breakdowns for Murphy on a month to month basis? His numbers just aren't good overall, but he also planted himself in quite a hole to begin the season. It seems as though he's been at least a little better the past month or so. Mitch Garver is amongst the Twins milb batting leaders in slugging, OPS, HR and RBI. Every report I've ever heard has him as quality behind the plate and throwing. He's not ready now, and there is no guarantee as to how he turns out, but he provides future optomism. I'd still trade Suzuki if the market bears a solid offer. But it sure appears we'really going to have to sign a veteran of sorts in the offseason. -
Interesting and gratifying to see Garver on so many of the batters lists.
- 13 replies
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- daniel palka
- zach granite
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Neal: Home-Groan: Twins Trouble Drafting, Developing Starters
DocBauer replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
To further the negative, those of us who are "more tenured" fans remember a wave of prospects in the 80's that included names some of you won't know: Sontag, Newman, Banks, Pittman, Nivens, Baumgartner and Gasser. None turned out and all were considered top prospects. Not that there weren't some success stories as well, but some tremendous disappointment as well. On the plus side, as the article mentions, and as we all are well aware, there is a new wave of some fine talent getting close. This marks a change a few years back in drafting and signing philosophy of not going for the smooth, control and more ready-made arm, but more of a power arm "stuff" prospect and then molding them. This new approach has appears to be working. This is backed up by milb team pitching statistics the past few years that have sent the majority of Twins affiliates amongst the tops in their leagues with quality starts, strikeouts and other rankings. Hope is around the corner to be sure. But I do weary of arguements that arms have left the Twins only to find success elsewhere. Most of the names listed here on TD have turned out to be OK, or have one good year, as RP, but only after bouncing around from team to teame before finding a niche somewhere. The Twins themselves have had success in this capacity, as do most teams at some point, so I don't feel that is a valid complaint. The only exception may be Liriano, and his success came Inn the NL, and only after the White Sox gave up on him. -
I don't think trading Ramos, inofitself, was a mistake, even though it would have been nice to keep him. Mauer was in his prime, there were no concerns with Mauer NOT catching at the time, and they had a tradable asset. The problem was trading for too low of a player value wise. The fact that Jepsen was controlled for a second year didn't bother me. In fact, I liked that we weren't renting a player for just a couple of months. The pen needed help, and the kids weren't ready yet. If Jepsen had performed as a solid, experienced setup man this season and not imploded, there would be so much discussion about him. To the original point of the article, I feel anymore that Ryan just doesn't have a plan. Never directly, since he never announces plans of any sort publicly, he's pretty much intimated "wait until the kids get here and you'll see". But then they jerking Meyer and Polanco around, and Kepler his first time up. One could argue they did the same thing with Vargas last year. Last season, they were going to "go for it" but brought in only Jepsen, and later than they should have, signed Cotts, and moved the wrong pitcher to the bullpen. I didn't want the Tulsa trade and I'm glad we didn't make it. This year, it was fix the bullpen. And we signed Abad and trusted in a full return of Perkins. I've always argued one could dismiss the disappointing 2011 and 2012 seasons due to the fact 2010 was such a good year and the core of that team was back for 2011. 2012 was a return to health and some retooling. But 13 and 14 were a mess! Someone has to play, someone has to pitch, and you need a full roster. So we signed some mediocre SP to long term deals but did absolutely nothing for SS and CF! Where is the plan? It just feels like half in and half out all of the time. NOW, we're starting to see some of the fruits of the milb system take root at the ML levdl...FINALLY...but TR still won't use the "R" word as if it's dirty somehow. There is definately a disconnect somewhere.
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I didn't like the Capps trade because I felt they already had an equivalent pitcher on board and I liked Ramos a lot. Though, to be fair, they did have a pretty good catcher at the time. Like any young prospect, particularly one not in your top 10, there is no guarantee that he will turn out excellent and you will later regret the move. My problem with trading for Jepsen is I just wanted a better arm, sooner, and another addition and not move May. ( Pelfrey to the pen may have accomplished the same thing) Regardless of how good, or not so good, Jepsen ultimately is, I don't think anyone could have predicted him being this poor in 2016. I initially liked having him for a second year, and the lack of any additional moves besides Abad, or relying on Perkins, are not Jepsen 's fault.
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Yes, the Twins have been a much better team as of late. They almost look like a real ML ballclub! Yes, we have some MOJO to end the first half that we will hopefully carry in to the second half. The Twins are actually playing a lot of young men on a daily basis along with these positive signs, and playing them in the right positions no less. And yes, there are still more moves to be made. And this is where you come in, because, well, YOU'RE IN CHARGE for the second half of 2016. What is your plan? All I ask is to be realistic; Suzuki or Nolasco are not bringing back a top 100 prospect or a stud young catcher to play in 2017. As for me and my plan? I am guided with the idea of what is best for my team now, and the immediate future, i.e. 2017 and beyond. This is not milb, and we don't have first and second half winners advancing to the playoffs. But I would like my team to be competitive and win, hopefully finishing strong, so that my youngsters can be in a positive environment and learn to win together. Whether I can get something, A ball mostly likely, or not, I'm moving on from Nolasco, Milone, Plouffe, Nolasco and Ramirez. I'm listening on Santana and Abad. I'm prone to keeping Santana however, and feel Abad would be a solid re-sign for 2 years at $5M if I don't see enough of a return. (Not old and a solid track record save the one bad year) I'm promoting Murphy to see what I have, and he's catching at least 4 days out of 7 and probably 5. I can't consider signing or trading for anyone, veteran, quality prospect, or also ran looking for a new start, until I know what I have in Murphy. I'm bringing up Chargois and either Wimmers or Boshers and Wheeler. May goes down to be stretched out as a SP with Wheeler auditioning for now. I'm also moving on from D Santana, though I like the kid, and promoting Polanco. If Santana happens to pass through unclaimed, I'd sign him to Rochester hopefully. I have some guys, I think we know the names, who are going to play almost daily. I'm going to try to play everyone at least 4 days a week, again, I've got to see how everyone fits going forward. Seasoned and tenured veteran or not, I'm probably only playing Mauer, not counting PH duties, 4 days a week, maybe 5. I know what he can do, or can't do, and I need to play others more. My OF is Rosario, Buxton, Kepler and Grossman filling in and DH-ing once in a while. Vargas will DH and play 1B, with Mauer, and others filling in at DH here and there for partial days off. The infield is Sano, Nunez, Escobar, Dozier and Polanco. Polanco plays a lot, across the infield, and hits near the top of the lineup. He's hit 1-3 almost his entire career, it fits him and he's used to it. Murphy catches and Centeno backs up. My rotation is Santana, Gibson, Duffey, Berrios and Wheeler. May is being stretched out. I may consider a variation of a 6 man rotation come August or so. My pen is Kinzler, Chargois, Tonkin, Pressly, Abad (if he's kept), Rogers and Wimmers or Boshers. Both if Abad is in fact moved. On the milb siide, Garver and Granite, Melotakis and Hildenberger move up to Rochester. They deserve it, and the sooner I expose them to AAA, the sooner they will be prepared for 2017, and possible promotion at some time to the parent club. What do you think? What's your plan for the rest of 2016? It's a whole half season with you in charge.
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Reviewing The 2016 Twins Daily Top 20 Twins Propsects
DocBauer replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Honestly, Walker has done better than I thought he would in his first go-round at AAA. He's not ready yet, but he's surprised me. Melotakis is a guy I've had my eye on for a while. If not for injury, he'd be at AAA already, if not the ML level. I'd like to see Wimmers, Boshers,Chargois and Hildenberger all up at some point this season. But at this point, and I can't believe I'm saying this, there is no room for all of them. Not until trades or September anyway.- 21 replies
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- byron buxton
- jose berrios
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Breaking Good: Positive Vibes At The All-Star Break
DocBauer replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
In regards to management sticking with the status quo if these young...and still getting younger...Twins have a quality 2nd half; I'm not convinced that would be the case. For starters, this makes 5 90+ loss seasons out of 6 (probably). Further, management has already been on record saying they are taking a hard look at the organization from the FO on down. Additionally, even a strong 2nf half can't erase such a poor and mismanaged 1st half. If anything, it might reflect just how poorly the initial roster construction really was. I say enjoy the kids, enjoy Berrios, Chargois, Polanco and anyone else still to come up, and realize the dreaded "rebuild" that Ryan won't utter is actually taking place. We'll see how it all plays out. -
Twins Minor League Report (7/10): Jay Makes AA Debut
DocBauer replied to Steve Lein's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
He's pitched just under 70 innings on 13 starts before his promotion. No telling how many innings the Twins want to hold him to this season, but he should definately have room for a few starts at AA before limiting him down the stretch.- 11 replies
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- tyler jay
- andrew albers
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Twins Minor League Report (7/10): Jay Makes AA Debut
DocBauer replied to Steve Lein's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
What is up with Wimmers? Has he really found a role for himself? After such a so-so career, and a not so great AA to begin the season, he's pitched quite well at Rochester.- 11 replies
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- tyler jay
- andrew albers
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While anyone's milb track record is never a tell all, much less any form of guarantee, he hit reasonably well in the minors and showed some of the pop we've seen from time to time, with SB ability. And while his one excellent year with the Twins, when he was possibly promoted too quickly, is certainly not his ceiling. But we've seen flashes where he has had good AB and good games. And the one thing that was pointed during a game once was his quick hands. Whether it's with the Twins or not, with time and a better developed eye, I think his tools and quick hands could still make him a decent hitter.
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I would say the second half of 2017 barring injury need. I see him as an above average hitter, say .260-.270 range in any given year. I see double digit HR potential, probably topping out about 15. High 20's for doubles, low 30's with enough AB. My feeling is he'll make pretty consistent contact and has some decent natural pop.
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No doubt Palka is an interesting option, 1B or otherwise. What I like about Vargas is his career milb OB ability. And while his 2016 promotion is still only a few games, he doesn't appear over matched at the plate the few times I've been able to watch him. Today, for instance, he battled for a BB to load them up for Kepler's grand slam against the Rangers. Most power hitters will SO some, even run streaky at times, but if he can continue good AB like that one and earn free passes, it makes him so much more effective and dangerous.
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I can't say I disagree with you. But I have to say, ideally feel better, roster wise, with 4 OF, the backup catcher, and a pair of versatile reserve infielders. I'm liking Polanco up in place of Santana, with Nunez/Escobar at SS and utility with one of them as maybe an emergency OF. These guys all have better bats than santana, and with the versatility of our OF, not sure we need more than 4 anyway. But it still leaves that darn crunch at 1B/DH.
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And you may be right. I also wondered earlier in the season if he or Park, or both, shouldn't try a little OFalls just to increase roster flexability and create further lineup options. Of course, this was before Grossman, Buxton, Kepler and Rosario became our OF.
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LOL. Not snarky at all. Just saying, he's young enough and athletic enough to continue to improve and possibly turn in to a useful super utility type ballplayer. Maybe one we'd even regret losing. But with the 4 OF's we have now, I'd rather lose him to get Polanco up than Escobar or Nunez, both of whom I like to man SS and utility along with Polanco. At least for the next year or two until the likes of Gordon and Vielma prove ready.
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Game Thread: Twins @ Rangers, 7/10 @ 2:05pm CT
DocBauer replied to Squirrel's topic in Archived Game Threads
Impressive! Vargas has a nice AB to earn the free pass and Kepler waits on the right pitch and nails it! Impressive by both youngsters. -
Gladden's game calling leaves something to be desired. But I like him as the color guy. I enjoy his perspective and stories as a former ML player and former Twin.
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Call me an eternal optomist if you will, but I don't believe D Santana has hit his ceiling yet. I believe the youth and talent are there to be a useful bench player. Potentially. But I think with the OF we have now, he is the guy to lose vs Nunez or Escobar. I think the two vets make us a better team as SS and utility options WITH Polanco until the likes of Vielma and Gordon prove ready.
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I, for one, am a big Garver fan. And not just out of desperation for lack of options. He appears to have a solid bat with some power, has made steady progress, and I have yet to hear anything but positives considering his work behind the plate and throwing. But I think it's unrealistic to expect him to be a big factor in '17. I believe there are teams that could use Suzuki and could find value in him for the rest of the season.nim not worried about the return. My concern is seeing what we have in Murphy, and Centeno to a lesser degree, for the future. If we like what we see in Murphy, I could see Zuke signed back as a backup option. The veteran devil you know scenario.

