DocBauer

While not a huge fan of May in the pen, or bringing back Fien, May can be really good in this role. Healthy the previous couple of years, Fien was usually quite good, just often miscast as an 8th inning guy. To state the blatantly obvious, my concern is the left side of things. I'd prefer 2 but really not sure we are even close to saying we have 1 we feel confident in. May be looking at duct tape and baling wire to begin the season, hope it all holds together. Biggest hope is the Twins doesn't hesitate to promote and play the kids.

Nice article Nick. The 4 or 5 people on here that actually ready anything I say... (OK, the 2 or 3)...know I'm more of an optimistic than not, and that I've been pretty supportive of the FO and field management over the years. To me, a competitive and winning team with a chance is what I'm looking for, I don't get all bent out of shape if we don't bring home the prize, (even $200M teams fail), and even the Twins 4 year death spiral was a very short time frame when compared to many, many teams in the league. I think I've also been very fair, however, when I've called out the Twins for such errors as blowing CF for what is borderline 3 years now, and blowing the bullpen situation last season; in each case seemingly banking on the early arrival of prospects. For the most part, I see the Twins STRONGLY moving toward prospects and younger players. Don't let the odd veteran signing fool you now, with their actions and inactions, along with guys already up, they are clearly focused on the youngsters. They simply don't wish to go the whole, "bring 'em up even if they stink now because they'll learn on the job" philosophy. But here is my problem with this roster, especially after wrong signings, no signings, and banking on youngsters not yet ready for the bullpen, or to save it last season. (Pun somewhat intentional) Didn't anyone learn their lesson yet? This team is not the Yankees, but they are not financially strapped either. You are telling me than a couple 1 or 2 year deals that would TOTAL $10-12M isn't affordable? You're telling me that a couple really solid, experienced bullpen pieces couldn't make this a better staff, a better team overall, and that those pieces would be valueless deadweight and untradeable assets when the Burdi's and MelotKis' of the system arrive? So what if we have so much young promote blessed talent at the all star break that we don't know what to do with it? What about the 3+ months before then? You could make various arguments concerning the Park acquisition and keeping Plouffe at this time, but they are nice players, and there are enough questions in the lineup to see the meritsame of both. At least initially. But to me, there is no fundamentally sound arguement for not taking a couple smart and non-bank breaking moves to fortify the bullpen this off season.

Meyer should be starting...PERIOD. Other than Berrios, there is no one he can't replace. You just give up,on an arm like that after one down year. Yeah....the Fort is fortified! May belongs in the rotation of this still rebuilding/retooling team...SECOND PERIOD. I am also more optimistic in regard to the Twins rotatio, even without Berrios to start the season. We have a difficult enough time trying to describe and agree on the criteria of an Ace or #1 SP, much less get I to what actually makes a true #2...but...IMHO...a healthy Hughes, Santana pitching like his normal self, an improved/improving Gibson are all 2-3 types who often/usually throw the way I'd expect a #2/top rotation starter to perform. Duffey...well...let's see if he can pitch at close to the way he did last year. If he can...oh my!

OK, but that is painting a limited picture isn't it? His AAA experience consists of 23 games. The season before that was 50 games short following his suspension, and he never seemed to get on track. His AA experience in 2013, 70 games, he hit .284 with a .330 OB. The first 52 games of 2013 was in Ft Myers where he hit .329 with a .377 OB. 2012 was spent almost exclusively at Beloit where he was .296 & .345. 2011 and 2010, Elizabethton preceeded by time in the GCL, his numbers were .337/.397 after .294/.343 in his debut. So what does this mean? Isn't everything supposed to get harder as you move up the ladder? Yep. But the player is also expected to adjust and improve as well. So in his first 4 seasons Rosario hit, then hit some more, and always had an OB at least 46 points higher than his BA. He hit at AA, and didn't stumble until the 50 game suspension that seemed to screw him up. He flashed in the AFL, flashed in ST, then jumped to the majors and stuck after only 23 AAA games.

Either Marshal, hoping he is healthy, or O'Flaherty on a bounce back. Both? A pair of 1 year contracts wouldn't be outrageous or financially dangerous, would give the pen a huge lift, and wouldn't force any rush of Rogers or Melotakis to such a prominent role. Marshal would pretty much be on a make good deal. We all know how quickly the fortunes of a RP can change. O'Flaherty is a big bounce back candidate.

Blast me if you think I'm wrong...and you will...but Rosario, the former milb CF seemed to play a very nice CF in his limited time there in 2015 for the Twins. Given an opportunity to play there regularly, he might just look pretty comfy there. But there is absolutely, positively NO DOUBT that CF is better defensively on a daily basis with Buxton in CF. In fact, with all the chagrin in regard to Sano and/or Arcia in one corner of the OF, remember that both jacks are decent athletes with strong arms to go along with the defensive aces of Rosario and Buxton. And the Twins aren't stupid. Come on now! They have certain expectations for next season. Here are things I think I know: 1) Unless he blows ST, Buxton is the Twins CF. And not just because of his great defense. (He and Rosario cover 3/4 of the OF) And not just on potential. He could be an asset hitting .225 with defense, speed and flashes of power. But don't forget just how talented he is, or how well he hit in his second go round. 2) I was tickled to Elmo giggles when the Twins re-signed Allen. This is a potential story that is just SOOO good. Top talent with 4-5 tool ability gets cut loose and comes home to find himself once again with his parent club before he is too old to lament "what could have been". I believe this could be a perfect storm to find an outstanding 4th OF, but he won't make the club immediately. No room, for one thing. I suppose, if the Twins really think Buxton needs to begin the season in AAA, he has a shot...but it would seem that Sweeney, Mastroianni or Santana would be the better short term answer. 3) Starter or more probable reserve, Arcia is not done. He will rock it when in the lineup...with inconsistent bouts I'm afraid. But if the stars align just right, and his playing time, DH or OF, becomes consistent, people will quickly remember why he excited them, and feel a bit embarrassed they doubted him. 4) Sano has the ability to play the OF OK. He has the ability to develop in to a better than OK OF. He won't have to. It's a waste. With all due respect to Plouffe, by the break if not way before, he will be gone to make room for Sano at 3B and someone else in the OF. I understand TR trying to put the best team on the field...but this just makes too much sense not to happen. (Any Mauer or Park situation could make this moot, of course) 5) We haven't heard the last of Vargas. 6) A corner OF spot, probably RF, is just waiting for Kepler. The wait won't be long.

Great interview! Thanks Seth. Absolutely one,of my favorite and most followed Twins minor leaguers. I remember reading about him before the draft and hoping against hope that somehow he would slide to the Twins in the second round. Absolute steal in the 4th round! When word finally came out as to why he was suspended his senior ssason, and thus dropped in the draft, reportedly, I have to tell you, I was imore seed with the kid'so loyalty to his teammate. And I love his attitude as a professional. His answers here, what he did in the minors, he reminds me of Berrios. Not physically, but in makeup. I think he has that hard working, determined, bulldog mentality. And both have shown the ability to move a level...get hit...and then make adjustments in order to pitch as well S, if not better than, the level they just came from. His length, a 4th pitch, a little more polish-knowledge-command, and maybe 10 more pounds or so of man muscle, he could be wicked!

As has been mentioned, Kepler could regress. But he could also regress while improving. In other words, maybe the SO climb some and the OB slips a bit but more power comes. Each season needs to be taken on its own accord. I see him hitting 3rd for our beloved Twins in the very near future and being an all around producer, though I don't know that he will ever win a batting title or jack 30. As to Arcia, what I feel I saw in 2014 was slight improvement defensively. That isn't high praise, but praise still the same. He does have a strong arm, and believe it or not, the Twins have put worse out there before. (As has everyone to be fair) I still think we see a resurgence this season. He is just too young and too talented not to.

Christensen was actually a SSS who moved to the OF and then moved back to SS due to injuries/team need. He was once named all big 10 SS, FWIW. I am, of course, a dyed in the wool Husker fan, but regardless, I think he has a chance to be a very useful and versatile role player. I don't want to hinder his progress, but I joke the Twins continue to play him around the field and don't let his infield abilities stagnate.

To be fair, there are a lot of power pitchers who struggled with BB/control, at least early, in their ML career. This includes Randy Johnson, who Meyer has been compared to more than once. Some guys figure it out. Some never do completely. Pure stuff and SO ability tend to offset the walks and slips in control. I just think it's way, way too soon to say he can't do it or won't ever get it figured out.

Ideally, IMO, is to move him any way possible. Cash, prospect, whatever to get something of at least some value back, move on, live and let live...peace out. But if he does stick around, the Nolasco we saw last season looked as though he was still effective on a limited basis, including some SO ability. He would be overpaid for the role, but he may be able to re-invent himself.

Start him. Start him. Start him. Look, the Twins see and work with these guys daily. They see things and have knowledge way beyond us. But I am flabbergasted that a top SP talent like Meyer...right on the cusp in 2014, and arguably deserving of a September promotion...has a poor year/start to the year, and with a snap of the fingers is now a reliever. Weren't we told last year that the bullpen move was temporary? A chance to work on repeating his delivery over fewer pitches and innings to get in a rhythm? Kepler is a top 10/100 prospect coming off his breakout season and on the cusp of making it. If he has injuries or struggles this year at Rochester, does he suddenly become a 4th OF?

I didn't read the article, but I did read Nick's. I agree the job should be Perk's, and with good, proven, reason. He's 33 now, and his head and body are used to a certain type of usage. I think he can still be very successful for a few more years. But much like Dozier perhaps being overused and needing a couple days off the first half of the year, there is one reason Jepsen can't come in to face a RH 9th inning lineup when Perk has pitched two days in a row, or 2 out of 3, etc. While Nick isn't going in depth on the bullpen here, focusing more on the closers role itself, is it just me, or does it seem kind of ridiculous that a month before pitchers and catchers report we are STILL concerned with the bullpen? Come on Terry...forget the prospects of talented prospects for a moment and make a move. There are still some decent, functional FA available. Build the strength. Giggity.

Actually, I was trying to help make your point. Lol

With all due respect to Milone, the Twins rotation rates even stronger with Berrios...and May, to be frank. Yes it's nice to have a lefty. And Milone was very solid in 2015, and indeed has been solid most of his career, save his first go round with the Twins in '14. I get a little frustrated at times when opinions, pro and fan, blast Hughes and Santana. Hughes may not be as good as 2014 again, but he very easily could be. He might even be a little better. While he lacked consistency in his career, and really hasn't quite lived up to his talent, he has shown flashes besides '14. He's not some journeyman who is a 1 season wonder. Ando Santana has had a very nice and consistent career to this point while being occasionally dominant. Gibson is talent, stillmk,proving, and I don't believe we've seen the best of him yet. Composure, decent fastball and an amazing curve, a little more experience and polish from Duffy could make him really tough. You can claim SSS, and you'd have an arguement. But then agaim, his milb track record is good, seemed to get better yearly as he advanced, and his SSS in '14 was a full third of the season. Now mix in Berrios and you have a very nice group, especially if the bullpen can support them. Something that is still a question mark. There is no ONE WAY to win. Teams do/have/will win via rorations, bullpens, defense and offense, and various combinations. A strong 1-5 rotation with bullpen to back them up is arguably as successful...if not moreso...than a really strong 1-3 with bad back end and average-mediocre bullpen. Just look at the Tigers from the past few seasons for example.

Both articles and both view points are correct. It's a matter of which perspective makes the most sense to you. Nobody has done the 3 years at $18 yet. Unless someone panics...always a possibility...no one is going to. 3 for $12 ish I would jump on. $15M? Maybe. I would prefer 2 years at $5-6 and a 3rd year performance option. The walks don't scare me much due to his SO rate, unless there is an abnormal number of HR as well. He really helps fill end back of the bullpen. And as you pointed out, that depth creates better depth at the front end as well. Go a strong 2 year with the performance option.

Sorry but....huh? Nolasco is owed $12M this season whether he is on the Twins or not, starting or in the pen. All other bullpen options, other than Perkins, are making far less. And in most cases, Tonkin, Pressly, etc, the cost is right around league minimum.

I feel Molitor will be more aggressive than Gardy ever was...as he was with Rosario last year. And yet, I feel like the couple weeks Kepler spent with the parent club to close the year he was treated with kid gloves. Was this accidental or a reflection of his long season? Perhaps. If Molly has the same "feel" he had for Rosario last season, then I'd bet the over. And I SOOO want the over! I'm sorry, but even though I think Sano could be the next Dave Parker or Darryl Strawberry...big men who play the OF...I remain unconvinced this is his future. He will play 3B, possibly/eventually 1B, instead of the OF, eventually if not sooner, based on experienxe, skill set, long term viability, as well as depth available. IMO

Despite financial obligations, I would feel awful if Nolasco got a starting job over Duffy for any reason other than injury or implosion. Bullpen? He could maybe help. But $12M for a middle veteran reliever over 30 when there are other younger, cheaper options available who may be as good with some top options on the way? Once again, simply better off trading him and money for whatever you can and everyone moves on. I think Runtzler is intriguing. Rogers could be very good in the pen. Outstanding if he can figure out how to figure out RH hitters better. Is it really possible Melotakis could be ready April or May? Hmmm...options...but I won't be surprised if the Twins still come up with another, more proven option for the pen before pitchers and catchers report. Don't forget Kepler in the depth column.

Is it too late in the game to say I'm still not 100% sold on the "Sano is moving to the OF company line?

Of course, as we all well know, this is still purely speculation. Dozier could continue being a quality defensive 2B with big production for several years. However, should his career path resemble "Uggla, the sequal", the Twins will be replacing a lot of his power and production with the addition of Park, the promotion of Kepler, and the continued development of Rosario, Sano and Buxton. (There are other possible as well). The concern, IMHO, would be WHEN said sequal would take place. Polanco would not be the same player as Dozier, but everything about him seems to state that he would be quality defensively, that he would hit and have at least a decent OB%, that he should provide quality gap power with some HR capability and good speed. But would he still be with the Twins when this proposed slide of Dozier's take place?

Agree Vargas is getting the short end here. But for most of 2015 he flat out didn't perform. The Twins did the right thing in getting Park, despite any potential road blocks. It is NEVER a bad thing to have too much talent,or too much depth. (What you do, or don't do, with that depth is anot entirely different issue) I do not think Vargas is done by any means. Unless there is an injury or big disappointment/surprise yet to come, I see him getting a full year at AAA and putting up the best season in his career. It will be a good thing if come the last half of the season we are trying to figure out how to get him in to the lineup with Mauer, Park, Sano, Plouffe, Arcia and probably Kepler.

While it may sound surprising...and I like the above list...I am going with Kennys Vargas. I believe he is still only 25 until August. He is a BIG man, but his bat has always seemed solid, not just all or nothing. All reports have always indicated he is a hard worker, and from what I have seen, his 1B defense isn't really all that bad. Despite all his rep for power and comparisons to his mentor Big Papi, he has yet to crack the 20 HR mark. Unless the unexpected happens, he will not begin the season in the bigs. That might relieve some pressure, and just let him play. Unless circumstances propel him to the SHOW, we could/should see 45-50 XB hits for Rochester with an impressive AVG and OB. As stated elsewhere, I believe there will be a point where we are discussing how to make room for him.

No question 2015 was a lot of fun and these guys were a big reason for it. The only disappointing thins being a poor SSS for Meyer and lack of AB's for Kepler. I wouldn't count out D Santana just yet, or Vargas, despite disappointing sophomore seasons. Santana will evolve, IMO, as a fun and dangerous utility player. Vargas? I actually think he's a little better around 1B than we were lead to believe. Previously, we've heard of a good attitude and work ethic. A big switch hitter with power...all he has to do is hit in the .260 - ish range with an OB above .300 to be valuable with his power. It's a long season, I bet he helps.

Very interesting article and projections. My only quibble would simply be, Mauer must continue to produce to the point you have listed. (If not improve) Could he? Yep. Will he? Now that is the question. Speaking of questions, I have one for you. In your scenario, what about batting Mauer in the 5 spot ahead of Plouffe, who would be ahead of Rosario? This would break up the RH hitting a bit, still provide runners on base, and should help set up Plouffe and Rosario in the 6 & 7 spots.