DocBauer

dxpavelka kind of stole my thunder. Very happy to see Joe looking like his old self again. And with that, until or unless someone else emerges, if Mauer actual is Mauer again, I'd keep him in the 3 spot I think. With the overall RH-NESS of the lineup, and a fair number of SO'S projected for the season, he has the ability to break up a run of mostly RH bats, get on base, but also knock in runners with hits, doubles and the occasional HR. I just think the lineup plays better 4 Sano, 5 Plouffe, and then a mix of Arcia-Park-Rosario 6-7.

It's the big picture that is most important. He had reasonable success at this level last year, but nothing truly dominate. If you follow milb promotions in the Twins system, you will see they've been more aggressive recently. But this is a kid, major arm and potential, that is still young not only for his level, but young for committing himself only to baseball. He needed a repeat, at least initially, for this level. The early results are very encouraging.

I was very happy to see the decision to keep Meyer in the rotation. Could he still ultimately end up in the pen? Sure. And he could do great things like other power arms before him. But that is way too big of an arm, way too much potential to move him after one down year. It would be an awesome problem to have if Duffey would get back on track, and by mid season we would have a log jam of he, Berrios and Meyer pounding on promotion's door, threatening to kick it in.

FWIW, Nick, I think it's a nice thread and an accurate one. Face it, no matter anyone's expectations coming in to the season, nobody expected this start. And let's be frank, it sucks. And blame can be cast wherever you like, and it's anyone's and everyone's right to do so, but the reality is that except for 3 players, the entire team is in the dumpster offensively to begin the season. It's a combined and cumulative effort that could not have been forseen, based on talent, experience and potential, as well as past results and even spring training, but it is what it is. Hopefully, what it is will turn around and soon! And yes, we can blast the FO for 3 years of no backup CF plan, and 2 years of waiting on the bullpen. (Things that have, pretty much, been admitted to). But simply looking beyond initial disappointment at the moment, and the emotions that accompany yet, perspective must be kept. I watched the Twins mostly struggle in the 70s with penny pinching, the promotion and subsequent eventual loss of quality players that made it. In the early 80's the Twins were very aggressive in the promotion of many young talents...perhaps too aggressive in some cases...and suffered through some aweful baseball. That was a complete and sudden rebuild. And while it ultimately paid dividends for years to come, it wasn't pretty at first. While I can, I think fairly, blast the Twins for some moves they've made, and haven't made, I can respect the idea of not capitulating to such a drastic "give in" to a sudden, complete and drastic rebuild. Right or wrong, I respect the notion at least. For every Mauer and Knoblauch that comes up and just seemingly clicks from day one, history has shown us many great young players who needed that step back to make mental and physical adjustments before finding themselves. It's not an insult to baseball, or us as fans, nor necessarily a "sky is falling" scenario, when this happens. It's simply a reality of young men learning to play a complex and difficult game at the very highest level.

Seriously, aren't we just better off bringing Mastro up for a while if the intent is to send Buxton down? He appears healthy, had a great spring, and us a natural CF so you don't have to do an entire OF shuffle. Or cut Arcia.

Hip....hip............................... (yawn)

I know they are just young prospects, which means they are, in reality, suspects at this point...BUT...even if it's early, the SP have been solid or better in virtually every milb start this young season. I think it's safe to say that all but the most despondent of fans would agree the Twins rotation is solid. It doesn't stink. These guys can win. But I also think it's safe to say we can't wait for Duffey to come back, for Berrios to make his mark, for Gonsalves to be the best LHSU we've had in years, for Stewart to become the pitcher everyone believes/believed he could be, for Thorpe to be healthy and strong and back on the fast track, and for all of these other young, various A ball SP to move up the ladder. For a moment, forgetting the early struggles of our beloved parent club, realize that when those previously mentioned things happen, there will be the likes of Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Rosario, Dozier, Escobar, Polanco, Gordon and maybe a few others supporting and backing them up. We probably contended earlier than expected in 2015, which makes the poor start this year hard to handle. But the future really does look very bright.

I like your theory in general terms, Seth, but as you said, it will take time to work out the measureable and equate what is a good numer, what is bad. In a sense, where is the break point in all of this. And there many be more than one break point. For instance, while there is more to a player's measured worth than simply their BA, the fact is .250 is a break point. .250 or higher is good, universally speaking, and above is better with .300 being elite. Conversely, below .250 is obviously not so good, while .200 has always been the "inept" mark, for lack of a better term. Considering the somewhat volatile nature of the life of a RP, and in your examples given, even allowing runs doesn't necessarily mean a reliever failed, I almost wonder if a 50% "success" rate might not end up being the average?

My question is this; have the Twins over valued the abilities of Harrison? By age, he would seem to have been promoted with earnest. By production, he would seem to have been promoted too fast. He's already been moved off 3B pretty quickly. Are we looking at Moses 2? Vavra, healthy for a full season, could be interesting. But I would think Wade and Murphy would be far more interesting subjects to watch/consider. Not so sure...just a hunch...Christensen wouldn't be a comparable comp to Vavra. Of this group listed, Gordon is clearly the winner. Despite his pedigree, I wasn't sold on him as a top draft pick. Simply, every scouting report had him as a 50-55 in all categories. I just didn't see those reports as meeting expectations for a top pick. But he has not only looked good, but would seem to be exceeding those early projection numbers.

I believe you are 100% correct, age should be a consideration. But, and I believe this is Seth's point, age must always be tempered. Even if a top college signed finishes his HS career and graduates at 17, he probably turns 18 before arriving on campus. Assuming he plays immediately and doesn't redshirt his first year, (no clue what percentage do), he's playing at age 18 or maybe 19. Three years later, he's selected in the June draft, and is, at the youngest, 20 about to turn 21, or even 22. If he doesn't like his draft spot and goes back for his senior season, he's draft at age 21 or 22. For many reasons, we know college players don't step right in to a ML lineup or staff, with very, very little exception, until they have at least a year or so under their belt in the minors. The 21-22 yo player who arrives ready to make an immediate impact is a top 5 HS draftee or foreign amateur signee of outstanding natural ability who therefore wouldnt, generally, attend college anyway. That is not to demean college baseball players, simply a fact based on raw, natural ability and potential vs a young athlete who simply needs more time to develop.

So far, early or not, we've seen the SP collectively do very well. That is always encouraging. Really glad to see Turner and Garver at AA. I think it works, and I think Turner needed that slow down. Am I being naive on Jay when I say I expect him in AA for the second half of the season? Not based on one start to be sure. But with his age/maturity/college experience, I'm just not sure he's going to need A ball for very long.

I absolutely love waking up in the morning, and pretty much first thing, popping on TD and checking out the minor results from the previous day. One of the absolute highlights of my day. Seth, the SD Buhr article was a great one. And the milb depth is such that it does appear a lot of guys are a rung lower than expected. At least to open the year. Would you agree with me that we may see more movement this season, promotion wise, and perhaps earlier as well? I would be surprised to see several moves as early as the 1st of June.

I know we have a plethora of quality young arms getting so very, very close to making their debut. But they weren't ready last season. They aren't ready yet this season. And nobody without a well functioning crystal ball knows exactly when they will be ready. Which is why it is so frustrating the Twins didn't use the $2+Mil being paid to Fien, throw another 3 with it, and signing someone like Bastardo for 2 years. Now, pour out another $5M or so, roughly, and something the team could afford, and you have another option for May. Now how much better does the rotation look with Santana, Gibson, Hughex, May and Milone in it while we wait for Berrios and/or Duffey? And unless they completely implode, the Twins have a veteran RP or two to trade come the second half of the season when some,of the prospects, probably/hopefully arrive.

A great point I have often tried to make. He lost a season due to TJ. And then, by most accounts, made a pretty quick return to the mound. The numbers say Gibson is a 4th year man, but that's really due to a technicality. When he got his first promotion with the Twins, he exceeded rookie status by, I believe, 1/3 of an inning. Except for this technicality, he would have been a rookie in 2014. For a variety of reasons, different individuals hit their stride at different ages. For some it's 24-25, and for some it's 27-28 ish. Not saying he will become the proverbial "ace" of the staff, but top starter is very possible if not already true.

Gordon is a top,prospect for a reason. In theory, he wou.d provide more speed and SB's as well as a better OB%. But until he arrives, Escobar is clearly the guy, clearly a surprise and gift from the baseball gods. I think we are beyond the SSS arguement at this point. While he has clearly surpassed his milb numbers and projectability, we always have to remember that for every top prospect that doesn't make it, there is usually someone who exceeds expectations. As to the whole "utility infielder" label, he was promoted early/young to the White Sox and sat on the bench as a utility player rather than play every day. Clearly, this is one the Twins scouts got right.

Great points on Fien. Totally agree. Now, I have stated I get the signing. He's been solid, he finished the year well, he's a solid bounce back candidate, he provides depth (at least initially), and his cost is negligable. I get it. I can't really be too upset about it. But the problem is, his $2+M could have been added to another 3-4M and picked up a higher grade arm. One that wouldn't bankrupt or handcuff the team long term but could pay huge dividends.

Is it just me, or does it seem like half this roster is on a precipice of prospect oblivion vs major step ahead? I'm not saying it's a bad roster at all. I like Vielma. I like Turner and Garver. The bullpen is absolately loaded. But fair or not, it seems like Harrison, Michael, Goodrum, Wimmer and probably a few others, have either lost some of their shine, or have age or past injury factors clouding their potential.

I think being down on Escobar is a mistake. What he has done when given a full time role the past 2 seasons is no longer SSS IMHO. I think the only risk could be being used too much and tiring. Also frustrated by the negativity regarding Rosario. Yes, he absolutely needs better contact. But his performance last season was very encouraging despite virtually skipping AAA. And for anyone who points at his poor 2014 at AA, remember, it came after missing the first 50 games, AND he hit and performed quite well at AA to close out 2013. Not to mention some impressive seasons before that as well. I say again, while he is a regression candidate, he is also a PROGRESS candidate.

Wow! There is a lot of potential with this club! Normally, I sit down every off season and project my own milb rosters. I've just been too busy as of late to do so. So seeing this roster laid out really excites me. I'm still a bit puzzled that Christensen doesn't play any middle infield considering he was a SS in college for most of his career. For versatility sake alone I'd think he'd get a look-see. Perhaps he's simply outgrown those spots? Half this team could be mid-season promotion candidates.

Call me Seth...errr...optomistic, but from everything I have heard and seen, (in very limited bits), he seems to have a nice stroke and an idea at the plate. I'm impressed and hopeful at this point. I kept expecting a .200 BA ish and real questions as to whether he should spend the early portion of the season in AAA getting acclimated. Didn't we all hear about this as a thought and possible expectation? Suddenly it looks like we may actually have a productive new power hitter for our lineup. Yes?

Eventually, yes. Whether that means this year or next is hard to say. Now, if Mauer happen so to struggle again this season, the complexion could definitely change.

I agree on Santana. He's had a really solid ST when you not only see that he's finishing it strong, but he's doing it while moving all around the field. He's just not that awful of a hitter, despite the results in '15. How good of a hitter, how high or low of an OB% is to be determined. But I have maintained he could really help the club going forward and not to dismiss him.

Not saying it will or won't, could or couldn't make a difference, but didn't I read somewhere in an interview with Park that the players in the Korean league were encouraged to swing the bat?

I like Shane's numbers. I know it's only ST and SSS and the such, but Park actually performed far better than I expected him to initially to. He has looked not only more than capable, but like he has a plan at the plate. The 1B defense also looked very nice in his SSS. Any official word on his defense at 3B? I mean, if he were needed there in a pinch.

Except for the endless debate of where he should be playing, or where he will be playing in '17 or beyond, I think you just did a "mic drop" Seth.