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Everything posted by DocBauer
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Naylor is MY pick, and I've made no bones about it. I'd consider a 3yr deal based on age and consistency. Maybe $15M per? I don't think that's out of line. It's also a number that shouldn't preclude him from being traded at some point if/when some combination of Fedko, Roden, Mendez, or Amick proves ready to take the spot over in the future. Further, a 3yr deal expires about the same time as Buxton, when some other players start to get a little more expensive. I am concerned, however, that a larger market team is going to offer a larger deal. As a result, I'm starting to look harder at O'Hearn as "Naylor-lite" for a more affordable deal.
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If they don't sign someone, I'd think a Fedko/Roden quasi platoon makes more sense than Mendez for 2026. While Mendez is very interesting, he's just learing 1B, and played at AA last season. Even with a good AFL this offseason, I just don't see a jump to the ML level for next year. The bonus of Fedko/Roden is they offer OF flexibility/depth as well. And Clemens, assuming he makes the club, does the same as an additional 1B option as a utility player. Of course, this is also assuming Fedko's breakout year and career solid OB%, and Roden's very nice MILB career prove them capable of succeeding as rookies, at least to an acceptable capacity. While I want the team to begin moving away from 1yr type deals, 1B is an obvious and open need. I'd say more than any other position on the team. So I do think they go the veteran route here.
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Funny, I could have sworn last week I read another OP where someone listed Flaherty and Albernaz as interesting options. Who was that again? Oh yeah! It was me! LOL But seriously, I do think they fit the profile of what the Twins need. They've got experience, are young, and would be coming from organizations that are doing things well right now. But I keep going back in my head to George Lombard as an ideal choice. He is only 50yo, has been in MLB since he was 18. I mean talk about being "plugged in" to modern baseball, he's got a son playing baseball in MILB. He would bring a reputation of both being more hardline, but also with a good, open personality as well. And he's young enough to relate to players, as well as young enough to be around 6-10yrs if things go well.
- 43 replies
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- rocco baldelli
- ryan flaherty
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2026 Position Analysis: Catcher and DH
DocBauer replied to stringer bell's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
IMO, the lack of FA catchers only goes to show how valuable Jeffers is. Over the past couple of seasons there had been so much tired debate about is Jeffers good or not good, or is Vazquez superior, etc, that I've just grown tired of the debate. I am one that appreciates different metrics, but had disagreements regarding defensive numbers as different analytics can say totally different things depending on who you subscribe to believe. I think Catcher is the HARDEST position to quantify. If I told you Jeffers had a team ERA better than Vazquez over the last 3 seasons...truth...would that mean he's the better defensive player? Or would say ERA is dismissive and post another stat? My point is IDK when it comes to the catcher position. It's almost like being an NFL Center: How do you grade in pass pro? How do you grade in run blocking? But ALSO, how do you grade in accurate snaps and calling out blocking assignments? Jeffers is not a tremendous defensive catcher. He's fine, but not great. He's been about AVG in regard to CS%. But he's super smart, and from all accounts, he's a good game caller. And THAT'S what I care about! Despite some ups and downs, he's ranked as a top 4-5 OPS producer over the last 5yrs. THAT'S overall value in a ML backstop. When asked if he could handle a 60-65% opportunity to physically stand up, he stated: "I don't know. I haven't been given the chance to do that". I'm only slightly paraphrasing. But he's built like a tank. With a little time off here and there, occasionally as a DH against LHP I have little doubt he could stand up. Just because he's not Perez or Mauer in his prime, what else should be expected of him as a primary backstop? But I digress. I'd absolutely sign him for a 2yr extension tomorrow for around $8-9M. So would half the teams in MLB if they had a chance. That puts him in line to be replaced by Diaw, Tait, and maybe even Jimenez. For 2026, I can honestly see Vazquez back as a cheap, experienced, respected, veteran option for $2-3M. But I'd be looking elsewhere for a similar option with the POTENTIAL to be better than a sub .600 hitter. Is Jansen, with a solid performance late in the year an option? Can Elias Diaz rebound to his 2024 version of himself? McCann also finished strong in limited opportunities in 2025. Or is there someone else who might be ready for one more year in the sun on a comeback season the FO and scouting department likes? Pereda is an interesting option as a #3 option, but I wouldn't give him a 40 man spot. I'm a fan of Noah Cardenas as a non roster #3 option. From most every scouting report I've ever read he's a solid game caller and defender. He's got a good arm. He's not much of a HITTER, but he's always been a solid OB% guy, meaning he can control the zone a bit as has at least an idea what he's doing at the plate. But since this OP is ALSO about the DH position, I have to state that it reflects back to the OP concerning the OF. Which is where I would have placed DH initially. Larnach figures to be the primary DH if kept. As most of us, including @stringer bellhave agreed, we don't see Larnach back for a variety of reasons from cost to prospect depth. in an ideal world...and let's face it, the Twins are due for some good luck...Em Rodriguez has a good winter season, and a strong ST and the FO suddenly has the balls to follow other franchises who have the same, and start him from DAY ONE. Wallner suddenly becomes the primary DH and a part time OF. Why Rodriguez and not Jenkins? Switch them around if you want to. But Rodriguez is a bit older, a bit more experienced, and has already burned 2 options. Jenkins doesn't even have to be added to the 40 man yet. This is OPTIMAL, and SHOULD BE DONE ASAP if he looks close to ready. FOLLOW the Brewers path like they did with Chourio. If not now, then when? Of course it means Rodriguez is healthy and ready to go. But even if there is a minor setback, when do you start to trust your top prospects? 1B, for NOW, should be a viable FA, IMO. That doesn't mean Fedko and Roden shouldn't be included in a 1B spot and potential OF spot. That only increases the OF and DH depth. But on a wish list, Jenkins would look close to ML ready and spend a month or so to ramp up, and Rodriguez would be ready to play day one. They sign whoever they think is best to backup Jeffers, and then Catcher and DH are taken care of.- 15 replies
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- ryan jeffers
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Arbitrary Thoughts: LHP Genesis Cabrera
DocBauer replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'm going to first and foremost disagree that Prielipp should suddenly move to the pen. He's only 25yo to begin 2026. Not young, not old. We all know his history at this point. I don't know about you, but I'd rather have him as a late 26-27yo SP with solid stuff and control than automatically move him to the pen. A pen change can always happen any time. I've stated time and time again that when trying to build, or re-build a pen you should be looking at failed SP, or pitchers coming off injury, or having a poor season coming off injury but had a rough season and are now looking for a make good deal. The problem here is 2 fold. Cabrera simply stunk with his Twins audition. The 2nd problem/issue is whether or not he's even worth a MILB deal. Maybe he is for hopes and giggles. But come on Seth, you know Funderburk has surprised us all with his late 2025 performance. MacLeod was "iffy" at best with his late 2025 performance, but there's some hope there. Fairly recent draftee Bragg had a hell of a 2025 season and is ready for St Paul in 2026. Nowlin seemed to finish 2025 strong. How close is he for a promotion? I don't know that I'd trust Misiewicz more than Cabrera at this point. And I'm not against solid depth. But at this point I'd almost trust any of my younger LH arms than Cabrera. -
His TJ surgery is just one of those things that sometimes happens to position players. It's normally not a big deal. His broken bone was a HBP. It socks, but it happens. Unless it happens again due to a weird confluence dependent on his stance, it's just a fluke injury. A thumb injury on the bases can be mitigated by slide position and the glove worn. Are we just looking for negativity considering past top prospect injuries?
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- luke keaschall
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I have some optimism for Lee and his future, but I'm not an apologist for him by any means. I appreciate and even embrace most all statistics. I have a hard time with defensive statistics, however, as there are so many, and they often say completely different things depending on which one(s) you embrace. Throw all the defensive stats you want to at me, that's fine. But I'm not using them in MY evaluation of Lee in this response. OK, let's get the bad pit if the way first: 1) He's slow and not overly athletic. 2] He has a medium arm. 3] Much like Miranda, he has contact ability that often translates in to weak contact as he's too much of a free swinger who just doesn't lay off pitches outside of his hot zones. And now the positives that I see: 1] He's got good hands despite some frustrating flubs. 2] He transitions the ball from glove to hand well and makes accurate throws. I also see him making nice adjustments on said throws, despite not being a great athlete. 3] He's demonstarated some pop/power potential, maybe more than initially expected. He can drive the ball when decently when he makes solid contact in his proper hitting zones. He's most comfortable at SS. No surprise there as it's been his primary position his HS. But I believe he's got the ability to be a solid glove man at 2B and 3B as well with a little more time, work, and experience. I still ask everyone to remember he was a 23yo rookie in 2024 and had only 172 AB. Rookie level qualification is 130 AB. That's means he entered 2025 as a non rookie by only about a dozen games. So he was very nearly a rookie when the past season began. His numbers weren't anything to be proud of, but he did prove his entire quad slash line from one year to the next. So as a 24yo, we did see SOME improvement. Do I think he's a long term answer at SS? No. Do I think he can be solid/OK for NOW to begin 2026? Yes. There's just nothing special enough to be a long term answer there. But he's solid to fill the role for now, and will probably be somewhat better for next season. Can the bat improve? Absolutely. He's smart enough to recognize some of his failings by chasing pitches outside his best hot/hitting zones. He's commented on this. CAN he take that recognition and lay off pitches...fight that "I can make contact with any pitch"...and be more disciplined in his approach going forward? I sure hope so. Some can, some can't. I'm willing to bet on a highly intelligent young man...with the coach's son backdrop as some insurance...with a solid work ethic will figure it out. Again, I hope so. I have a personal belief/hope/feel what Lee MIGHT become as a ML hitter over the next couple of years, but I'm not going there. But for argument sake, let's just say continued development, work, and experience would have him continuing growth as a hitter and in 2026 he might bat .250/ .310/ .400-ish with another 16HR but increase his DBLS production to 25-28. (I think the DBLS projection might be a little low). That would be FINE as a high quality defender at SS. But even with improvement defensively, I still don't see him TODAY as better than average at SS. I'm not betting against continued improvement, I just don't see it. Even when drafted, there were thoughts he'd move to 2B or 3B. We're speculating on a kid who doesn't turn 25yo until February of 2026. How can we know how much better his bat might be in 2-3yrs as a 27-28yo? It's borderline silly to try and do so! But K-Pepper has more speed, more athleticism, and a stronger arm. He simply projects as an even better defender and offensive force. But even though he's been dynamic in his professional debut, he's not a finished product. His early succes and projection is almost identical to Keaschall. And at some point, June or July 1st, we should see Culpepper up. Does he start as a utility player with someone out? Does he just take SS over? That's unfair speculation too far in the future and too many variables to comment on or project TODAY. But, IMO, K-Pepper should become the #1 SS. I see Lee becoming a super utility player similar to Castro or Marwin Gonzalez, save the OF playability. There's no reason he can't play some 1B along with covering the rest of the INF, and bring a solid, productive bat playing almost every day. Is that what was hoped for when drafted? Nope. But that doesn't mean he's a failed prospect. A super utility 4 position INF player with a solid glove and above average bat is a WIN if that's all he "only" turns out to be. An average defender and bat, or somewhat above average in both regards, provides the Twins with a hell of a valuable player. He's the #1 SS to begin 2026. Culpepper should replace him at some point. But that's more indicative of K-Pepper's potential and not a negative as to the value Lee can still bring to the Twins.
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- brooks lee
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2025 Twins Daily Most Improved Player
DocBauer replied to Matt Braun's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Nope. While I didn't like it when it happened...and might have agreed with you at the time...the end result is a trade that had zero affect on either team. Originally, FWIW, the report was that Outman was PART of the trade. (Maybe wrong information)? Rumor has it his medicals lowered the trade to simply Outman for Stewart. Considering Stewart was done after a couple IP and Outman has been as bad as advertised, if not worse, it's really just a "no benefit for either team" deal that will be forgotten very quickly.- 31 replies
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- kody clemens
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I don't hate this idea. You don't play as long as he did with an average to below average bat and not have a good, basic understanding of how to handle a staff and help lead a team. He's always had the respect of teammates and his managers, as far I know, and has been lauded for his intelligence. And I've always thought former catchers made good coaches and managers. However, I question his "readiness" being so soon retired and working in the Angels front offices. Sorry, but that's not an organization thought very well of right now. I get that hiring a smart, young guy is on vogue right now. And I see merit to that line of thinking as an organization. Especially with a solid, veteran bench coach to work along side him. Maybe Shelton? I'm certainly not trying to speak negative towards Suzuki, or his intelligence, or baseball knowledge. But never coaching, never running any team in MILB, and working exclusively with one team since retirement...again, the Angels?...grants me pause. If the rumor is true, and the Twins really believe he's got the STUFF to be a ML manager...again with a strong, experienced bench coach beside him...then go ahead and pursue him. I'm just impressed with his post playing day career to put him at the top of my list. I feel, at this time, there are other 50yo and younger candidates available with more experience, coming from better run organizations, that might be better options. But I'm just a fan trying to look at the larger picture. I have no information that would lead to believe who is the best candidate at this time.
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2025 Twins Daily Most Improved Player
DocBauer replied to Matt Braun's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
1] Martin 2] Funderburk 3] Clemens would rank no higher than #3 on my list. If he had an OB% of .300...still not good...or more work that power and low AVG I'd rank him higher.- 31 replies
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I should be more clear when I say Rodriguez's clock is ticking. I'm intending to refer to his options clock. He has yet to debut and he's already used up 2 options. Hopefully he doesn't need to use either of his remaining 2, but a lot of times rookies and young players end up needing a re-set at some point. I should have been more clear in my comments.
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The Browns aren't exactly a good or great team. But they do have a hell of a lot of talent on the defensive side of the ball. But in the 4th quarter the OL consisted of ONE starter. Darisaw was out for some reason, so Skubal was in, switching from RT. Rouse then came in to to play RT. So Fries was the ONLY #1 starting OL at that point. And they still won the game? That's a hell of a performance from the OL and I give credit to them and Wentz.
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Any chance that Jefferson gets in his ear? I sure hope so as JJ is a CLASS ACT!
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What? Seriously, what? Did I miss something here?
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This has to be the most intriguing spot on the roster doesn't it? And of course it starts with Buxton in CF. He's proven healthy for the past 2 seasons once his knee was finally "fixed". He's an absolute stud, a difference maker, and I still believe a Twin for life...or at least the remaining years of his contract. After that, it becomes muddled, but not necessarily in a bad way. There are just so many options, and so many top prospects so close to debuting, that it might be a fluid spot. Whoever begins the season isn't necessarily who's going to finish the season. WHAT DO I WANT TO SEE HAPPEN? I want the Twins to not be afraid to follow the example of teams like the Brewers and get the TOP talent up ASAP and live with some growing pains. I WANT Rodriguez to have a good winter ball, and a healthy ST, and grab a spot DAY ONE. His clock is ticking with 2 yrs already on the 40 man. I can't wait for Jenkins to arrive. But only 21yo and and only 23 G and 102 PA at AAA, I can see him getting a month or so at St Paul to ramp up a bit. The fact that it would affect his service time is a benefit, whether anyone likes that idea or not. At some point, the dream of Rodriguez and Jenkins BOTH in the OF flanking Buxton is not unreasonable. It could/should happen at some point in 2026, possibly as early as June 1st if everyone is healthy. I doubt the Twins open the season with more than 2 rookies...or near rookies...in the OF. They are too conservative in their approach at times. That doesn't mean Roden and Fedko are SOL. As stated by Stringer, Roden shouldn't be dismissed just because he had a poor debut in a very limited number of games. And it's not hard to squint a little looking at Fedko and maybe see a young Lew Ford 4th OF. I WANT them to remove Keirsey...who didn't get a very fair chance, but they seem to have made up their mind on him...as well as McCusker...for the same reasons...and just admit to themselves that Outman is just NOT going to suddenly be "fixed" as a 29yo. My goodness, Outman's OPS for his last 30 days with the Twins was .346! Go ahead and offer MILB deals to all 3, but get them off the 40 man at this point. I like Larnach, and I've said that repeatedly. He's not a bad ballplayer. But with an expected arbitration number of around $5M for a re-tooling team with all of these OF options, where does he fit? But a career OPS of around .760 against RHP, I believe he's got value to someone else. Therefore, I think he's moved, possibly with a solid prospect, in a deal for either a pen arm from someone else, or at least a decent prospect. SO AFTER THAT? Martin has earned the right to play for the LF spot. I still have some doubts, but I'm very impressed by his improvement this season offensively and defensively. Can he continue to refine his defense enough to also be a viable CF? Hopefully. I'd still like him to work out at 2B for emergency situations. Long term, his role is 4th OF once Jenkins and Rodriguez arrive. Wallner had a very disappointing 2025. But after an OK rookie debut, he was a very productive bat in 2023 and 2024 with a combined OPS of around .880! You just can't ignore that! He's also looked much better defensively before this season. Did his injury this season affect him more than we know? While he Ideally slots in to the role of primary DH and decent backup corner OF, he's absolutely part of the OF picture for 2026. So we have Martin, Buxton, and Wallner as the initial starters barring a FO surprise of handing Rodriguez or Jenkins and opening day role. But I'd sure like to see that happen! Still plenty of AB to go around! So what about the 4th and 5th spots? Again, we just shouldn't dismiss Roden and his MILB career after less than 160 PA appearances. He's still a virtual rookie who had a bad debut. He is sorta a LH version of Martin with more power. And while Fedko is a late bloomer in his 25 age season, he's a competent OF by all reports and has speed and newly developed power with a MILB career of having a really good OB%, even if his AVG was never great. Gonzalez has reaffirmed that his top 100 prospect status when the Twins acquired him was not an illusion. His 2024 season was a downer due to injury. But similar to Jenkins, he'll oy be 22yo when 2026 begins, with limited AAA PA, and will probably spend a little more time with St Paul to ramp up. So, unfortunately, I'm starting to believe the Twins will keep Outman around to begin 2026 in the role Keirsey had in 2025; PR and defensive replacement. Big mistake, IMO! Cut bait! Let the prospects play! Want a really crazy idea? IF ownership is stupid and blind and keep the payroll at unreasonable levels, have Roden and Fedko compete at 1B. Roden has a lot of experience at the position, Fedko some. They could play 1B, AND the OF, and Clemens could continue in a possible utility role as the 13th man. You see how crazy this could be? Crazy insane, or crazy like a fox depending on what the new manager is presented with via the FO. WHAT THEY SHOULD DO: 1] Just remove Outman, Keirsey and McCusker from the 40 man for prospects and potential FA additions. Offer them MILB deals. 2] Open the OF competition to ALL of the prospects on hand. If you decide to hold someone back for service time, or more AAA time to "ramp up" and tweak a few things, great. I have no problem with that. But assuming for a moment that Larnach is actually gone, you have Martin, Buxton, Wallner, Rodriguez, Jenkins, Gonzalez, Roden, and Fedko as options for the OF and DH. That's 8 guys proven, or TOP prospects, and a recent climber who shouldn't be ignored that you drafted and developed over time. *I'm deliberately ignoring Clemens as an OF option at this point. 3] STOP being paranoid about depth. Depth is good. But Margot and Gallo are NOT depth pieces. Maybe build a better AAA roster, but maybe examine other mid market teams that recognize you have to trust in your on hand talent and give them them the opportunity to succeed. The opening day OF might not be who finishes the season. But if I might be crass, I'd tell the FO to have the balls to play the best talent and ignore mistakes like Outman, and let it fly. You can always send someone down for a month or so if you really need to. But why are the Brewers doing better with their prospects? Maybe it's opportunity?
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Three Players Who Seized An Opportunity In 2025
DocBauer replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
1] SWR has had an interesting path to the ML level to say the least. He was nurses a bit in his 2024 season, then seemed to really grow and take charge, before finishing poorly when he seemed to run out of gas. Frankly, I was rather disappointed to his start of 2025. But he's a bright kid and has a fire inside of him that's fun to see. His finish to the season was excellent. And I believe he's locked in as the #4 starter for 2026. I say that as Falvey...who speaks a lot but doesn't always actually SAY anything...has stated he's planning on Looez and Ryan to be in the rotation, and hopes/expects them to be there. Falvey may be a lot of things, but I've seen him as a liar. An offseason to rest his hip should have Ober back at the #3 spot. **SIDE BAR: Sim and Bradley are both out of options. Both are 25yo. Bradley has a really live arm, but hasn't been able to harness his stuff consistently yet. If Matthews turns the corner, do they consider moving Bradley to the pen? 2] MARTIN really took advantage of his opportunity. Considering his fast start to the season, it's a real shame he was sidelined for so much of the year. The Twins never tried to make him a slugger, they just wanted more power so ML SP didn't challenge him and eat him up. I still have some concerns, but was very impressed with his offense as well as improved defense. His SLG % did go up some in '25 vs '24. But he has to at least show DBLS power, with the occasional HR, to keep ML pitchers honest. Right now, I'm encouraged and think he's the starting LF to open 2026. Long term, I think he settles in as a 4th OF if he can continue to develop his defense. I want him to focus on his OF defense. And while this might not be popular with some, I want him to continue working out at 2B as well. As of now, the INF depth isn't very strong to begin 2026 and I'd like him as at least an emergency type option at 2B. 3] CLEMENS should be the low bar we're trying to clear. He's someone we should be looking to replace. He absolutely should not be a starter anywhere. However, that being said, his LH power off the bench, and the ability to play competent defense at 4 spots is worth keeping around for now. And OPS above .700 for a bench bat does provide value. Can he repeat that? I hope so, and expect him to get a shot at making the club next season. And crazy as it sounds, he might also fill the unfortunate role of 14th bullpen arm when needed. * He's played a little 3B in his MILB and ML career. I don't believe he's an actual option you want to put out there, but I'd like him to work out there and see some ST action there. Crap happens during games sometimes, and with thin INF depth, I'd like to know he could slide there in an emergency. 4] FUNDERBURK really did step up after the deadline. His strong last 2 months had him ending the season with a 3.51 ERA after being in the upper 4's previously, IIRC. (It might have been worse). I'm hoping this wasn't an illusion as he's got good stuff, but could never find consistency previously. 5] I'll get some pushback here I'm sure, but Cole Sands was pretty mediocre in the 1st half and didn't look much like his 2024 self. I don't have numbers to present, but initially, post deadline, he looked much, much better. He started to resemble the '24 version of himself. And then he had about 5 or 6 appearances where he just imploded. But IIRC, his last handful of appearances he seemed to turn it around again. I'm only saying, he started to flash more of the potential he showed in 2024, and might end up as a solid cog in the 2026 pen.- 33 replies
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- austin martin
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Culpepper has way more athletic ability than Lee does. But playing SS isn't as easy as just being athletic. It still involves instincts, positioning, good hands, and the ability to make good throws, often off balance. Lee has most of those abilities. He's an OK, solid SS. Culpepper has even more range, and probably an even better arm based on reports. You can be a good team with Lee as your SS. Especially if he gets his bat under control and quits trying to make contact with crap out of his hitting zone. He has the ability to hit .270-280 with a decent .320-330 OB% with 30+ Dbls and 15-18HR per season. That potential is even better as a Castro replacement who plays all across the INF on a daily basis, including even some 1B. And he can provide a solid glove wherever he plays. That might not be the hopes we had for a #1 pick, but if he reached that outcome as an almost every day player...much like Castro...how could we argue with the final results?
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See, this is very close to an earlier post I made. I just don't believe in giving up ahead of time. If they keep Lopez and Ryan...well within any logical payroll plan...you have a basis for contention simply because quality SP is the hardest thing for ANY team to find. No apologies needed. There's a hell of a lot of teams that would envy a rotation lead by Lopez, Ryan, and a healthy Ober for only just under $40M combined. And then you add in the undervalued SWR who might by on the upswing and the depth of Bradley, Matthews, Abel, Morris and others. Why in hell would you give that up? Unless things go sideways and you just feel you have to blow the whole thing up. But are we really there yet? We disagree only somewhat on Larnach. I don't believe we disagree on Wallner. The OF has Buxton as a fixture. And then we have TOP prospects like Jenkins, Rodriguez, and Gonzalez oh so close. Personally, I haven't dismissed Roden or Fedko as possibles. The INF is in flux, and depth is poor. And 1B is a blackhole needing to be addressed. We're both in agreement about a roster that doesn't have enough young, pre-arbitration talent. But you also can't build an entire roster with pre-arb players. I think we agree on that. There's a whole lot of IF'S regarding the 2026 Twins. IMO, that starts with the INF. DO they find someone to play a viable 1B and contribute offensively, or do they punt and just try out players there? Do Lewis and Lee, healthy, take a step forward? How long before K-Pepper is ready for depth or a starting position? I'm not in favor of keeping Outman AT ALL. I can't believe he or Keirsey or some other AAAA couldn't fill the same role sitting at AAA. I want younger talent getting their opportunity. But, unfortunately, I can see an opening day roster of Martin, Buxton, Wallner, Outman, and maybe Larnach. But I'm still not sure the Twins will want to spend $5M on Larnach...who I don't dislike...vs making room for a younger prospect. That's where I'd go. Agreed the pen is a totally different discussion. But I can still see a potential path where it might be acceptable?
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I agree. If the Twins were smart enough, and ballsy enough to follow the Brewers MO, they'd give a job to Rodriguez for opening day, provided he gets through winter ball and ST healthy. I pick him over Jenkins only because he's a little older, and his clock is ticking. And ONE rookie being fit in at a time makes more sense. But you could also flip that scenario in Jenkins' favor as well. (But I'd sure love a 21yo getting a little more of a ramp up and additional service time added).
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Rocco Baldelli Wasn't the Problem
DocBauer replied to Matt Braun's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Baldelli wasn't the problem. But he also wasn't part of the solution either. Ownership is still the #1 problem. That's a given, IMO, and I doubt anyone would argue that. Falvey's FO ISN'T entirely poor. He's done a lot of good things behind the scenes, and out front as well. And we can't forget his bosses agreed to extensions for Buxton...well deserved and smart...as well as an extension for Lopez...well deserved...and then the sign and re-sign of Correa and Joe Pohlad making comments that he could see a $180M payroll in the future. And then all of that is pulled away suddenly. Falvey didn't do that. I/we might not like some of the things he's done and want some changes within the system, but he isn't responsible for having the magic carpet pulled out from beneath him. By his own admission, Rocco didn't have a lot to do his first couple of seasons. As the roster began to change, he suddenly got the opportunity to actually "manage" the team he was presented with. At times, I think he did well. At times, I disagreed strongly with different aspects of his management. I honestly think there were things he wanted to do, or do better, but didn't always have the roster available to do some of those things. That's on the roster the FO built, and the ownership above that limited potential moves. How much blame goes toward Rocco and his coaches for development of young players is a concern I've had. In addition to certain aspects of running a game I haven't always agreed with. We can argue all day long about young players that should have been ML ready, vs the job of ML coaches CONTINUING their development vs the coaches he was given vs how much control over selection of those coaches. WHOEVER becomes the next manager, Falvey NEEDS to relinquish some control of HIS ideas and let said manger pick coaches he trusts, with input from Falvey of course. I have no doubt Rocco will end up with a new job as soon as he wants it, whether it be in a FO capacity, or a bench coach, or as a manager again. And I wouldn't be surprised if he was a successful manager for someone else. But I do think escape goat or not, it's probably time for a different voice and a different approach for 2026 and beyond. He wasn't the problem, but he also isn't the answer going forward. My greatest concern is a manager who gets more control and isn't expected to just be a "yes" man. -
Very well thought out Stringer. I tend to agree. 3B LEWIS: I really liked his defense last season. While inconsistent, being an average or somewhat above hitter for thr 2nd half offers some encouragement. The fact that he felt well enough to RUN some is what I'm hanging my hopes on. That tells me his body is feeling good. Now he has to continue the flexibility training he did last offseason and get his approach/swing down. He may not be what we hoped he'd be, but there's still a lot of talent locked inside that young man. SS LEE: There's nobody else right now. As good as Culpepper was this year, he could stand a little AAA time to just gain experience and refine his game a little more. Tougher pitchers are ahead for him. I wouldn't be shocked to see him replace Lee at some point in 2026. But I don't think he makes the roster opening day. Despite some negative reviews, I don't think Lee is bad at SS. He's by no means great, but I think he's solid. I believe he is destined to be a 3 and maybe 4 position utility player. (He's got the size and the ability to help some at 1B if needed). He's shown he's got a little HR power, but he absolutely needs to refine his approach and eliminate the weak contact in his non hot zones with the bat. He does that, he becomes a pretty solid and valuable player, even as a utility player. 2B KEASCHALL: We all see the the offensive talent and the ability to help in all areas. He's got more than enough athletic ability to get to balls. He just needs time to actually PLAY on a regular basis to refine the little things like making sure he's got the right positioning to snag the ball, and transition the ball for a throw. 1B QUESTION MARK: I've made no bones about the fact I'd love to see an investment in Josh Naylor. Despite being in a re-tool mode, he's an easy fit for the INF and the lineup. Payroll wise he's also an easy fit, unless ownership puts the screws down or there's a bidding war involved. If not him, I'm intrigued by Rhys Hoskins on a 1yr, make good deal to rebound his value. He might tank. He might suddenly get back to his 2024 level. I'd take the chance. But maybe a LH bat like Ryan O'Hearn as a cheaper version of Naylor? He still fits a need at 1B, and provides a solid veteran bat in the lineup. It gives me tremendous pain to say this, but if the budget is so tight we can't afford an option similar to those listed, I'd have Roden and Fedko bring their 1B gloves to ST and work them hard there. Roden has experience there. Fedko's experience is limited, but that's never stopped the Twins before. Yes, they both have to prove they can actually hit at the ML level. But at least there's some upside with them. Clemens is what he is, and at 30yo in 2026 I don't see a sudden rise in his abilities. Of course, Roden and Fedko also offer up additional OF depth, as does Clemens. But they need to be looking at options to be BETTER than Clemens at 1B on a daily basis. Unfortunately, unless they spend a little or make an interesting trade, there just isn't anyone waiting in the wings to help at 1B at this time. (Again, MAYBE Lee can help once Culpepper comes up?). DEPTH: This is a major issue to begin 2026. Whenever Culpepper is ready, he or Lee end up as depth one way or another. That's a positive. I still want them to look for a better option than Clemens. If I KNEW he would continue to provide power and an OPS above .700 as a 4 or 5 spot utility player, I can live with his other negatives. They will, of course sign a couple MILB FA and hope they find another Castro or Castro-lite and just be lucky. I don't know that they will have the $ to spend $2-3M for a veteran INF to help out. But maybe their traditional "wait and see for late deals" approach will offer up a surprise. But for NOW, Fitzgerald seems to be a likely 13th man who can at least provide a solid glove at SS/3B/2B and will sneak in a couple XBH here and there. Possible contributors within the system? Well, I wouldn't mind having Bride back at St Paul. He was solid for the horrible Marlins in 2024 and had a good 2nd half with the Saints in 2025. A full year removed from knee surgery, does Eeles' bat return to his 2024 form and offer a depth option? Schobel really raised his game after a poor 2024 at Wichita and then got promoted to St Paul, just in time to be injured and miss most of the 2nd half of the season. But if he picks up where he left off, he might provide some solid depth at some point. And all that being said, and agreeing with most all of your assessment, depth for the INF is a HUGE concern right now as other than Culpepper, most INF prospects would seem to be at least a half season, if not more, away from contributing. And ANYONE can see the obvious hole at 1B. Even the Pohlads and the FO can see this glaring black hole. It is my assumption that SOMEONE other than a 30yo, poor ML career individual will be brought in to help solidify the spot. Fitzgerald and Clemens to begin the season as depth pieces doesn't offer a lot of faith or hope. Hopefully they are both lucky and smart with whatever MILB deals they pass out to find someone better. At least for one spot. I'm cautiously optimistic about 3 spots. I'm also cautiously optimistic they will bring in SOMEONE at 1B to close the blackhole that sits there currently. But the depth is pretty worrisome right now, even if K-Pepper is on the advanced "Keaschall-like" trajectory.
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Thank you Lucas for another amazing report. IF I'm reading this correctly, the muscle will relax, the nerve will then be free, and Festa should have normal feeling in his shoulder, if not more. Am I correct? Does he need further injections, or does the initial injection and normal therapy take care of the issue? I'm of the belief that his arm is better suited to bullpen work in the future to throw fewer innings more often, similar to Duran. What say you?
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I appreciate your optimism. Blessing or curse, I also remain an eternal optimist in most things in life, including my confounding Twins. The Twins seldom spent beyond $4-5M for a BP arm due to the volital nature of the position. And if you're going to shave cost somewhere, that is the spot to do it. I do believe there's at least some sound logic to that approach. As I've stated previously in different threads, I believe the Twins aren't going to cut. And there's no reason to go over that again. I've argued since was traded a 1yr deal to bring Coulombe back for $3 or $3.5 just makes too much sense not to. After that, I thought maybe 2 more FA on ML deals. OBVIOUSLY they sign a few fliers on MILB deals to see what happens. But another $6-8M still fits in to a limited payroll. And I've often stated, again, they should be looking for "rebound" guys looking to "get right" on 1yr deals. That might be where Williams comes in to play. I don't know if they'd go $5.7. But for 1yr? Maybe. As a bridge for a young arm like Festa growing in to the role? I can see that. Makes a lot of sense. You still have room for another $2-3M for someone like a Clippard, or Romo type. Maybe slightly better if you don't keep Topa at $2M? Regardless, you're only spending about $12M on 3 pen FA all on 1yr deals. This provides a bridge for various arms on hand, prospects, and SP converts to begin to establish themselves and gain experience in the reliever role, while some will obviously be counted on to contribute immediately. Remember gang, there is no such thing as a bad 1yr contract. Lol. Of course there is, but you get the point. So a POSSIBLE 2026 pen begins with: Williams, Festa, FA, Sands, Funderburk, Ohl, Coulombe, Topa. How good is that pen? Hard to say. Williams and Festa healthy, Sands close to his 2024 form and how he looked for about 6 of the last 8 weeks in 2025, Coulombe still doing his 1 out or 1 inning, Funderburk really and truly growing and carrying that over to next season, the top 6 might actually be solid. I'm 50/50 on Topa being kept. But I actually like Ohl quite a bit. His FB now sits around 94-95 and he has a hell of a change, and has always had good control. Granted, there's some IF's in there. I'm not denying that. No predictions of greatness here, only hoping for some goodness. Who backs up this bunch? Adams, who's got OK stuff but nothing great. But is a potential Sands or Jax now that he's converted to the pen? Laweryson has paid his dues. Is he ready for more? It looks like Raya's move to the pen might be permanent. Can he take all the "stuff" we've read about and translate it to 1 IP? How about Lewis throwing as hard and well as he can and unleash that knuckleball with a couple of strikes? MacLeod had a really good season at AA but was very inconsistent in his AAA debut. Does he respond in 2026? In AA, LH Bragg and RH Paredes had great seasons. Both appear ready for AAA in 2026. Logan Whitaker blew away the competition at CR and Wichita. How soon until he's ready for AAA? Does a seemingly strong finish to 2025 get Jaylin Nowlin up to AAA now? And it's not hard to believe the Twins won't find another Thielbar, Stewart, Wisler type on a MILB invite. Their scouts seem to find one most every year. Again, a lot of IF's. I'm not denying that. And I'm not saying a playoff caliber pen can be built overnight. But can a decent, solid pen be built with a couple of adds, players on hand, and some talented young arms converting? I believe it can happen. And it's possible said pen might be better the 2nd half when some of the younger, converted arms are more "ready". Going abstract? What if Matthews turns the corner and is pitching great. Sim and Bradley don't have options any longer. If nobody is actually injured in the rotation, does one of them suddenly move to the pen for even more talent and depth? Look, I'm not blowing smoke up anyone's backside here. I may be an optimist, but I'm neither naive nor an idiot. I'm only saying a couple smart 1yr investments, some on hand arms, some solid conversions to the pen...some of which have already taken place...maybe a surprise flier signing...I am only stating that there is a legitimate path to build a decent, competent pen that might augment a potentially really good rotation to carry the 2026 team to a .500 or so record. I'm not discussing the lineup right now, that's a different discussion. I'm just talking about STEP 1 in a pen re-build that might not be so crazy.
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IMO, the initial cuts are easy: Cabrera, Hatch, Misiewicz, and Tonkin are gone from the pitching side. A couple of them might be worth a MILB deal and an invite. Gasper, Pereda, Miranda, Julien, Keirsey, McCusker, and Outman are all gone. That's 11 open spots for additions. A few random thoughts: It's time to move on from Miranda and Julien unless either wants back on a MILB deal. They don't like or believe in McCusker, even when the OF has been depleted. Keirsey may not have been given a fair chance to prove one way or another he's a ML player. But they've made up their mind. Regarding Outman directly, I GET having just traded for him. But unless they want him as a temporary fill-in in the same defensive replacement and PR bench warming spot Keirsey had this past season, I think he should be gone. His OPS the past 30 days is .542. The past 15 days it was .393. Over the last week it was .346. And this is with regular playing time. If he wants to come back on a MILB, or perhaps the younger Keirsey instead, then that's fine. But he simply can't hit at all. There's not another late 20's CF/OF option out there on a MILB deal as "good" instead of wasting a 40 man spot? SURPRISE KEEPS: I'm holding on to veteran Fitzgerald for a solid glove and occasional pop as the primary backup SS and utility player unless there's an inexpensive veteran they can bring in that's better/more proven. At only $2M and not totally stinking I'm probably keeping Topa for now. REGARDING LARNACH: I've always said I kinda like him, even though he's never turned out to be the player hoped for. I think his .759 career OPS against RHP has value. I've been assuming he's gone due to an expected $5M cost, AND because the Twins are looking at Buxton, Wallner, Martin, Roden, Rodriguez, Jenkins, Gonzalez, and even Fedko as OF options for 2026. Clemens as a role player might even figure in somewhere...possibly. (he's got to make the roster first and I'd like to aim higher). The Twins might just keep him. I'm just betting they won't. Personally, I'd package him with a prospect in the late teens, early 20's, and see if I might be able to grab someone's #4 or #5 pen arm. Not saying they can, but there might be a few teams that could really use a LH DH/OF with that career .759 OPS for a questionable lineup and have enough pitching to be able to afford their #4-5 pen arm. That's just me clearing out 11 spots on the 40 man for adds, with 3 question marks in Topa, Fitzgerald, and Larnach on hand for now.
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Twins President Derek Falvey is In Over His Head
DocBauer replied to Matthew Taylor's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Is he in over his head? IDK. There's some interesting discussion going back and forth about hus duties/titles and how other teams very seldom combine both the business and the team side. It's just way, way too big of a job for a single person to perform. As already stated, each individual job requires long hours and additional help. So fine. Does Falvey have so many good and trusted people around him that he can split the job 50/50 and delegate duties to be done satisfactorily? Maybe he does. Maybe he's got a whole cabinet of smart and trusted people he doles out duties to and they get the job done. If so, these unnamed and unknown individuals might be poached soon from other organizations. Is DSP only hanging around until the minority owners sale goes through? I could understand that since he was still on the clock when this whole thing started. But is he gone after this? Who's running the business side, him or Falvey? Because it was supposed to be Falvey months ago. And DSP should only be a phone call or text message away if a question needs to be answered. So why is he still hanging around? Again, maybe it's just to see the minority purchase go through. But with so few sports teams giving ONE GUY all this control/power, there must be a reason right? Right? But again, maybe Falvey just had a wonderfully talented group of people around him that we just don't know. After Levine left, it was stated they weren't going to replace him as the position/title was pretty much irrelevant with Falvey the #1 guy and some trusted lieutenants below him. So after the 2024 season comes to a thunderous crash, Falvey gets PROMOTED and Zole gets PROMOTED to the GM chair that we were told didn't need to be filled. OK, maybe that changed with Falvey's promotion. But other than being told Zole is smart and has helped finalize deals in the past, and done a lot of contract work, who exactly is Zole? What are the components of his job? Does he just jump when Falvey tells him to? Or does he have real power. But if he has any real power, why isn't he mentioned by anyone, anywhere concerning the deadline deals? Why does Falvey issue all statements and perform all interviews or speak for almost the entirety of a press conference? Is that just Falvey performing duties that he thinks he should do as the #1 guy? It's all very confusing and it's really hard to see who exactly is in charge and where. And we don't need to understand it all. No business is under any obligation to inform us as to how a normal day works, and exactly who picks up the phone, and who makes the coffee. All we really need to care about is the final results. (I'm leaving ownership out of this as we all know the issues there). What's so confounding is Falvey heaping praise on his manager, and stating repeatedly that he takes personal responsibility for the team failing, while simultaneously firing said manager, and offering up ZERO honest comments concerning any sort of change that might provide real optimism. IDK, personal responsibility should mean he's out of a job if we don't begin to see changes, IMO. Asked about payroll and hopes for 2026...which might include Lopez and Ryan being kept...we hear Falvey "hopes" they'll be around and that they're part of the plan at this time, but it depends on payroll. Asked about payroll, he says he doesn't know yet until he speaks to the owners and a harder look is taken at the business side. Huh? So you can't comment honestly on the roster because you don't know what business is thinking, but you're also the #1 guy in charge of the business side? Why all the coach/political speak and just say something honest similar to: "We just don't know exactly where the payroll is going to be for next season yet. We have an idea. But there's still moving parts such as final approval of our new minority owners that have to be put in place before I can give you an accurate answer. So at this time. I don't want to give a number that might not be fully accurate." That answer stinks, but at least it's honest. But being in charge of just about EVERYTHING and saying your left hand hasn't been introduced to your right hand yet so you can't answer is disingenuous at best. Once again, we don't need to know how the product is manufactured behind the scenes. All we really need is for the final product to turn out well. But when those in charge of the manufacturing give you the impression they aren't running the business well, it's a little hard to want to have faith in the purchase of that product.- 81 replies
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