twinsfan34

First off, as it seems to be a problem here, Walker was only 21 during the entire 201 season for the Cedar Rapids Kernels. Not 22, not 22, not 22, not 22. Born: October 18, 1991 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, US (Age 22) The Kernels season ended in Sept 2013, which is the month before October. Per Baseball America article... AL Scout... When did the questions start...Summer 2011 during the Cape Cod League... NL Scout... Also...on if Walker can take ground balls and handle 1B...he played 1B in college. Link: http://www.coast2coastprospects.com/adam-brett-walker.html

It's hard to say getting a 1 year contract with the worst team in baseball (1990 - Twins were dead last) isn't exactly riding a success story. Although...I will say, to those who say the Twins don't spend. Jack Morris' contract for $3.7M that year was the 4th highest contract in MLB and only $100k from being the richest contract given that year. In 1990, the Twins had the 2nd highest contract in MLB, Puckett at $2.8M. In 1989, Frank Viola was the highest paid player in MLB at just under $2.8M. It wasn't until 1992 when the Yankees, Mets, & Red Sox started to hand out multiiple contracts that doubled the previous season's highest salary.

Matt Adams is a good comp. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9393&position=1B Class A, same age, 6.5% BB% and and 15.3% K%.

Sammy Sosa (BB) Mike Schmidt Mark McGwire Manny Ramirez Reggie Jackson Fred McGriff Jose Canseco Adam Dunn David Ortiz Mike Piazza (BB) Andres Galarraga Jim Edmonds Albert Belle Tony Perez Matt Williams Jeff Kent Lance Berkman Gary Gaetti Carlos Beltran Greg Vaughn Moises Alou Ryan Howard Jay Buhner Richie Sexson Reggie Sanders Tim Salmon Carlos Pena Eric Davis Mike Cameron Jorge Posada Gorman Thomas Matt Stairs Nick Swisher Dan Uggla Rob Deer Tony Batista Geoff Jenkins Adam LaRoche Travis Hafner Jose Bautista Mark Reynolds Dave Henderson Russell Branyan 194 HR and up club. Sosa and Piazza had worse walk rates. Sosa was younger though. The rest were within a year (older or younger) and at A/A+ ball. The big thing is that BB%. He's not striking out a ton...and scouting reports (BA, etc) say he kills mistake pitches, especially off-speed stuff. It actually seems he struggled with plus fastballs (93-95). Which can't a guy just speed up his bat a little while giving up some HR length? Curious to see what he does. Curious the thoughts on Vargas, Harrison, and Dalton? Harrison is 20, the others are older and similar K rates as Walker.

Another one closer to home. Pedro Florimon. Same age 21, class A ball. Hit 0 home runs in 305 PA while having a K% of 31.8% and a BB% of 8.8%. 5 years later, at age 26, in the pros for the Twins (2013). He hit 9 HR in 446 PA, with a K% of 25.8% and a BB% of 7.3%. http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=florim001ped

Adam Walker is almost a year younger than the player average there. Another Walker, Larry, had a strikeout rate of 28.7% at the same Midwest League in 1986. He went on to win 3 batting titles. http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=walker001lar Chris Davis, HR champ this past season, had 29.4% K-rate at A+ in 2007. http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=davis-003chr Joey Votto's strikeout rate at class A Midwest league in 2004 was 23.2%, he was 20. http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=votto-001jos Pedro Alvarez, who despite playing at Prestigious Vanderbilt (not Jacksonville St like Walker), at one year older, age 22, at class A+ had a strikeout rate of 24.6% despite playing in a league that wasn't as easy to strikeout in as Walker's 2013 Midwest Lg. Oh yeah, Alvarez, he was the home run champion in 2013 in the NL. http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=alvare001ped The guy improved his K% rate 10% from year to year, so in 2 years he won't strikeout at all? Yes, that's just as reasonable a projection as he won't end up as much. Scouts like Walker. He was only 21 this past season, turned 22 in late October. The list goes on and on. Matt Kemp, Giancarlo Stanton, Ryan Howard, Pat Burrell. I can find no less than 50 guys with worse strikeout rates who went on to hit or will hit more than 300 MLB home runs in the last 20 years. If Walker hits 300 HR I'd be ecstatic. Another, Paul Goldschmidt. One year older, at age 22, 26.9% K% at A+. http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=goldsc001pau

This! *When's the "Like" coming back? we can bare bones other aspects of the site. This, and other comments, demand a like.

I'm on the same line of thinking as Thrylos. And honestly, Nolan Ryan and other power pitchers 'learned' in the big leagues. He's not going to 'learn' as well in AAA or AA when he makes a mistake. 2013 AAA MVP Chris Colabellos didn't make MLB pitchers pay for those mistakes and he's the best AAA has to offer. Those hitters won't make him pay of mis-locating his stuff like MLB hitters can. As a pitcher, I don't remember when guys swung and missed on pitches they 'should have' hit. I do remember the home runs. And honestly, you don't know what's a "mistake" until you see someone make it a mistake. Michael Wacha gets away with a LOT of location that shorter pitches couldn't, because it's on a different plane. Meyer, in the same sense, doesn't operate on the same 'plane' of location. So where the catcher catches the pitch doesn't matter as much and it's why Michael Wacha dropped to #19 in 2012 when the real story teller was not where the ball was caught, but the path it crossed the plate. And I'd honestly rather watch a guy, if he's going to make those mistakes, who touches 96-100 mph on his fastball with swing and miss potential vs. a guy make those mistakes throwing 85-91 mph and has All-Star game Home Run Derby pitching potential.

With teams like the Twins and Astros out there who have very little talent, I could still see grabbing a Polanco and putting him on the MLB roster. He can play defense already. Don't think he can hit .220 like their current SS's? Oh wait, we're the Twins.

Originally Posted by John Bonnes Trout is the recent comp, but to me he sounds like Rickey Henderson. That's nuts. Agree. YES!

Well, the 30 teams doesn't quite play fairly to 2 CY Young Awards as your team in question can only win the AL CY OR the NL CY. It's the same ratio, but yeah, each time is only eligible for 1 CY. To be "average" or mediocre, that would mean you win .0667 CY per year or 1/15. Thus, simply, every 15 years, it would assume the average of 1 CY. The Twins have 2 CY's in 10 years (above the average). Johan in 2004 and 2006. If WHIP and other Sabermetrics had been as populare in 2005, Johan would have had a 3 consecutive. Colon won with 21 Ws on a poor 3.48 ERA 157 SO performance. If you want to go back another 15 years, for a total of 30 years, that is back to 1984 to get to the next whole Cy Young Award (last I checked they don't hand out CY's in quarters, thirds or any non integer). The Twins now have Frank Viola's 1988 CY season on the books. 4 years ahead of the curve. Once again, above average. Twins 3, Average 2. This feels like the electric slide... Take it back 15 years y'all... That brings us to 1970. 45 years total. Guess what? Jim Perry won the CY in 1970. So here, the Twins are again, above average. Twins 4, average 3. The Five teams without a single CY winner? Cincinnatti, Colorado, Miami, Texas, Washington The teams that are average to below average (or mediocre in terms of CY Awards) include the: Chicago White Sox Cleveland Indians San Francisco Giants St. Louis Cardinals Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Houston Astros Milwaukee Brewers Pittsburgh Pirates Seattle Mariners Montreal Expos Tampa Bay Rays Cincinnati Reds Colorado Rockies Miami Marlins Texas Rangers Washington Nationals *Note the number of teams in each league has varied through the years, but not enough to make the Twins an average team.

The Wise One, I'm putting together some stuff on this. I was planning on rolling it out before some more Buxton and Sano projections...but might roll it out a little sooner. But yes, you're absolutely right. Carew, Hrbek, Gaetti and Mauer all went from AA or lower to Opening Day starters and never looked back. Puckett spent 1983 at Class A, then in 1984 he went to AAA for a monthwas the every day starting CF for the Twins by mid May. Cuddyer got a Sept call up from AA at age 22 (4 seasons in the minors), but ultimately would need parts of 2 seasons at AAA before coming a regular. The Twins promoted players aggressively from 1980-1982 and from 1999-2002. Lots of AA jumps to the pros, Sept call-ups, etc.

Wonderful idea. Would love to see the 2012 season + the 2013 pitchers acquired. Also, our offense only averaged 3.96 runs per game. I took 3 Clayton Kershaw's based on their game logs (can't go by 'average' for every single game) and we still only ended up with 90 wins with our 2013 offensive production. Which, in case you didn't know, the Twins would NOT have made the playoffs with that record as Cleveland and Tampa had 92 wins a piece. We struck out the 3rd most times in MLB history... Predict away, it's a long Winter. Especially now waiting to see how Buxton/Sano perform out of these 'injuries'...hope they don't prove to be 'nagging'...

Jim Callis' thoughts... http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20131101&content_id=63603204&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

We often see things through the events and circumstances of our lives. I have no problem with putting correlations together, whether a sitcom or the Bible. We all have values (known and unknown) that we base decisions on. That said, we can't force our value/decision system on anyone. But I like your parallel - basically, be responsible with what you've been given. I don't think any one would argue with that in theory. That said, again, don't be foolish. Don't get tied into bad contracts that are long term. I don't believe (there's my belief system) Nolasco, Arroyo, or Garza are worth 4-5 year deals for $12M-$14M annually. Maybe they will prove me wrong, whether they sign with the Twins or not. I really feel .500 seasons in 2016, 2017 are feasible. I don't the Twins hand-tied financially those years. John Lackey is the only comparable signing (age, previous production, and salary range of next contract) and he had one average season (2013) and three bad seasons. I'd have less of a problem shelling out $20M annually to a guy who's 25-28 for 4-5 years who's top of the line and could be a contributor in 2016 and 2017. Zack Greinke type. I love how mature Chris Carpenter is for the Cardinals. He got older, he got hurt, but was very involved in an active mentor role to the up and coming young Cardinal pitchers. If Roy Halladay can still pitch every 6th day. I'd love for him to be there for Alex Meyer and co. He has a tremendous work ethic, game preparation, and is a coach at heart. I'd make a pitch to older pitchers, if you have any aspirations of a career in coaching, then come here, we promise to give you a shot at a spot in the organization.

I think a very important factor is the state of the MLB team. Mike Matheny wanted to have Michael Wacha as one of his starting five pitchers to START the season. But the Cardinals had tons of depth and the front office was hesitant to have such a long season for him. The Marlins had nobody. The brought up...8...9 rookies this year? Fernandez A to Pros. 20 Ozuna went AA to Pros. 22 Yelich went AA to Pros. 21 Marisnick went AA to Pros. 22 Dietrich went AA to Pros. 22 The Twins...if they don't sign too many guys who are just salary hogs for the next couple seasons, could see guys like Baxendale, Meyer, and May by mid-season or sooner this year. Next year could see Sept call ups of Berrios, et al. Some guys will learn no matter the competition curve. That's why Buxton is rated #1 by every organization. He learns. He learns quickly. Could put him in MLB tomorrow, he may hit .250 in April and May...but, he'd be hitting .300 in August & September.

So glad Cletus took the wheel.

I'd rather see Pinto 'fail' and hit .250 all year than these guys. Molina is the only different one. Stuart Turner, 21, finished hist last game at AA-New Britian. It would not surprise me at all if he is called up late in September and will likely be in the discussion for Catcher in 2015 unless he has some major setbacks. He's the 'defensive specialist' catching wise. Which means he wouldn't have to hit more than .220. Put the extra millions towards Starting Pitching.

First off – I want to say I really enjoy those who put time into thinking and thinking that is informed (involves some research). I probably have an ‘unfair’ bias (I’m Mathematician, SABR member, work in Analytics) towards those who back up their claims with findings, facts, and well developed theories to those numbers. So I appreciate that. It makes for better thinking, imo. Enjoyed the Correia analysis, shed light on his outings. Personally, I never thought he was terrible and was a decent return on the investment. Could have been worse and more expensive, e.g. Ryan Dempster. But I definitely believe a good defense as you stated can help eliminate a few bad innings and that often is a reason teams make it to the world series and win it. The ball bounces their way. Look at that error and obstruction for the Cardinals win and the home run saving catches in the playoffs versus not. Rick Anderson. I’m not a really a big fan of him. I have very little expertise when it comes to pitching and I threw my shoulder out in high school pitching. Never had stride length coaching, video analysis, etc to correct the strain I was putting on my shoulder. Before long I had acromial ligament tears (works within the rotator cuff) by my senior year of high school. I don't think it was because I pitched on average two games a week or high pitch counts. I think it was a mechanics problem that could have been stopped by proper training (weights, bands) and mechanics when pitching. All that to say, I think a pitching coach is largely responsible for the (pitching motion related) health of his pitchers. They need objective eyes. I needed objective eyes. By the time the pitcher has made it to the pros, they usually have developed the pitches they'll use. A pitching coach, to me, would try to make sure they're not getting off track. I would see video analysis and fine detail as really important. It's the little things in pitching that makes a difference. Who makes the first trip to the mound? The pitching coach. A lot of times it's situational, so and so is up, remember what we talked about, etc etc. But a lot of times I would think it's also minor changes in the game - "you're landing on your heal too much." "Keep your weight back, explode through." "It looks like your release point is a little behind, etc" How to evaluate that - I don't know. Bill Belichick, the Patriots coach, and other coaches seem to make great in-game adjustments. It's more apparent in football and perhaps, in baseball, in the NL, with the pitching position requiring more 'double switches', platoon playing, situational hitting, and hitting matchups. So hire NL managers? I don’t see many of those ‘in-game’ adjustments coming from Anderson’s trips to the mound. I have to think that a pitching coach is more than “You got this champ” psychology. Per the players you mentioned in the Anderson carousel. I didn't think Boof Bonser was much different with us versus not. He was the #29th ranked pitching prospect (2002) which was two years before the Twins acquired him. He had dropped out of the top 100 when the Twins got him. ERA was escalating towards 6 before departure. His career turned for the worse when he tore his rotator cuff and labrum. And he never really recovered. So I wouldn't put him not doing well after the Twins (post injury). And to my earlier point, I put some of being healthy on the pitching coach. I'd be curious the research of Pitching coaches and player injuries, if there's a pitching coach(es) out there who frankly, don't have injured pitchers. To quote another football coach, Bud Grant valued healthy players more than talented players. That is to say, if you're not healthy, it doesn't matter how good you were/are. Johan Santana, it was a salary thing, and the main reason the Red Sox and Yankees didn't bite was because they felt they saw an injury coming along. He won an ERA title his first year after the Twins. So he was good, but then, as expected, the injury came. My belief, if he didn't have the injury, he'd still be a top-3 Cy Young qualifying pitcher year in and year out. Again, how much of Santana's injury could be attributed to Anderson as a pitching coach? I don't know. The research question I had might help shed light on that...it might not. Carl Pavano, had better seasons before the Twins, but he did well with the Twins. I can’t agree or disagree with you on if Anderson helped. Pavano did have two good seasons back to back, something he had not done before. But, he got hurt in 2012 and it actually went undiagnosed for over 3 months! It ended up ending his career. I know the medical staff was on the hook for it. But, again, this is just me, I can’t help but wonder – if the pitching coach is also partly responsible. I at least think he needs to be very knowledgeable here. Kyle Lohse absolutely was way better after leaving the Twins. He wasn’t that good with the Reds or the Phillies. But under Dave Duncan, then with the Cardinals, he substituted a 2-seam fastball for his 4-seam fastball and wasn’t giving away his off-speed stuff anymore and voila! Lohse began posting ERAs in the 3’s. Scott Baker…elbow injury in 2011…then let go. Kevin Slowey…triceps injury in 2010…shoulder strain in 2011…then asked to be a reliever, he balked, then let go… Joe Mays only had 1 good season, the rest he had ERAs over 5! But again…2004…injured…Tommy John surgery… Are we noticing a trend here? R.A. Dickey was mostly in the minor leagues with the Twins and still developing his knuckle. Agree with you, this is a push. Vance Worley, he had some good years before us. I would leave this one as TBD. I think Matt Garza was young with us. He flashed mid 3’s ERA before the trade. He was not seen as a clubhouse fit. I’d say a push here. Francisco Liriano…I’d put him in the “injured under Rick Anderson” category. He finally got healthy and he’s just about as dominant as he was when he healthy. Imagine if the Twins pitching staff didn’t have any of those major injuries? We’d a been .500 this past year with Baker, Slowey, & Liriano still slinging it (pre-injury form) for the Twins. And that would make signing a top FA pitcher or other players a lot more likely to yield results (playoff appearances, playoff wins, etc) Because this is getting long…and I don’t have much knowledge on Bill Smith. I’ll just say, he was aggressive. Right or wrong. And he signed Miguel Sano. If Sano turns out to bop 40+ HR even just one season, I’ll call it a draw for Bill Smith. If he hits 40+ HR more than 4 seasons and posts Killebrew like career numbers, well Mr. Smith, you are a genius.

Jacoby Ellsbury, healthy only 2 of the past 4 seasons, and his agent Scott Boras are prowling the streets of the free agent market with the notion that Carl Crawford's $142M contract is well, "an old contract." Ellsbury who has a career AVG/OBP/SLG .297/.350/.439, a single GG, one season where he hit over 10 home runs, missed two of his last four seasons with injuries, he's 30 years old, and his agent believes he should get upwards of 7 yrs $180M. Scott Boras goes on... 1. Is there new money available that wasn't previously? (TV deals?) 2. Wouldn't Sin-Soo Choo be the cheaper AND the better deal? He's almost the same age (31), likely cheaper, has more power, and has a better a better Bill Jamesian (AVG/OBP/SLG) of .288/.389/.465.

The Cardinals would qualify and you'll likely see them in the World Series contention for the next 5 years. The 2010 & 2012 SF Giants had Barry Zito, but he didn't pitch much in the playoffs and world series. It was on Cain, Lincecum, & Bumgarner - all system guys. I don't see the Twins signing a FA pitcher this year that would be 'the guy' who puts us over the top and is still contributing in 2016 or 2017. If it's 2017 and Meyer just won 15, Stewart 14, Thorpe 14, and Romero, Berrios, and Eades showed promise...I'd be trading for David Price to trying to sign Tanaka to Arroyo. But, we're at very different circumstances. I'd be curious to know this stat, how many FA pitchers, signed 4-5 years earlier from another team, contributed to a playoff run, two, to a world series?

... +1

Wieters would likely get $20M+ per season from the Yankees next year...at least that's what Orioles Manager (and ex Yankees manager) Buck Showalter believes. http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2013/08/01/showalter-if-yanks-dont-have-to-pay-a-rod-matt-wieters-will-be-a-yankee/

Has to be one of my favorite 'stats' of all time. Was Stan Musial close one year? Maybe didn't have the steals. "Chance"...I wonder if the poster was thinking the same thing. He's ripe for all of those. I think Carl Crawford and Jose Reyes got pretty close a few times. Their years of getting close again are likely behind them. Who, in today's game could be the guys to do that? Trout? Though, maybe too much power. Who else?

Love the ideas, particularly Shane's 2014, Don't feed the greed, & BigTrane's comments. I will say, AJ was never good at defense, unless you consider his trash talking/mental game/distraction to opposing hitters. Not the coaching type from what I can see. And broadcasting isn't coaching. I wouldn't mind seeing Anderson go. Is Jack Morris a pitching coach these days? Brad Radke? Where's the best place to find these guys? Pitchers who played for the Organization who are sitting at home doing nothing? Minor League managers? Any HOF pitchers who want the job?